The flexibility of household electricity demand over time

Empirical estimates of long run effects on residential electricity demand from changes in the electricity price are usually estimated by cross-sectional variation in the current stock of electric household appliances across households at a certain point in time. Here, we use a discrete–continuous approach modeling the long run effects by investments in new appliances. We apply the annual Norwegian Survey of Consumer Expenditure for the period 1975 to 1994 to estimate the short and long run own price elasticities in the two approaches. We find the estimated long run elasticity only slightly more price elastic than the short run. We also find that the long run elasticity does not differ significantly between the two approaches. The reason for both results is that, since there is no alternative source of energy for these appliances, there are no substitution effects.     

Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response and welfare effects due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve this objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- and macro-data. In the simulations, we consider two revenue neutral scenarios that both imply a doubling of the CO₂ tax; one that returns the revenues in the form of a lower VAT and one that subsidise public transport. One conclusion from the simulations is that the CO₂ tax has regional distribution effects, in the sense that household living in sparsely populated areas carry a larger share of the tax burden.     

Noncooperative household demand

We study noncooperative household models with two agents and several voluntarily contributed public goods, deriving the counterpart to the Slutsky matrix and demonstrating the nature of the deviation of its properties from those of a true Slutsky matrix in the unitary model. We provide results characterising both cases in which there are and are not jointly contributed public goods. Demand properties are contrasted with those for collective models and conclusions drawn regarding the possibility of empirically testing the collective model against noncooperative alternatives and the noncooperative model against a general alternative.     

Video game demand in Japan: a household data analysis

Various economic studies of the video game industry have focused on intra-industry details. This article complements the approach by highlighting broader budget allocation by households. Using the ‘total households’ data of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, this article estimates the demand model for video games. Estimation results show the effects of household income and demographic factors and prices of goods on the expenditure share of video games. These results indicate the importance of explicitly considering a households' budget allocation, or at least, including information on households.     

A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth

Subjective expectations about future income changes are analyzed, using household panel data. The models used are extensions of existing binary choice panel data models to the case of ordered response. We consider static models with random and fixed individual effects. We also look at a dynamic random effects model which includes a measure for permanent and transitory income. We find that income change expectations strongly depend on realized income changes in the past: those whose income fell, are more pessimistic than others, while those whose income rose are more optimistic. Expected income changes are also significantly affected by employment status, family composition, permanent income, and past expectations. Expectations are then compared to the head of household’s ex post perception of the realized income change for the same period. The main finding is that rational expectations are rejected, and that in particular, households whose income has decreased in the past underestimate their future income growth.     

Border region commercial electricity demand

Border region electric utilities face unique circumstances in attempting to assess overall business and load demand conditions. These result from the many business cycle conditions facing these entities as a consequence of operating near international political boundaries. Can international economic fluctuations be systematically incorporated into electricity demand models? Along the U.S.-Mexico border, this problem is further complicated by economic interactions between an advanced economy and a developing country where data constraints exist at the regional level of disaggregation. Transfer function autoregressive moving average analysis is utilized to examine whether commercial electricity sales in El Paso, Texas respond to the national and metropolitan business cycles affecting economic performance in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua. Together, these cities form one of the largest international metropolitan areas in the world. This provides a logical starting point when considering the questions raised in this paper.     

Food security in Kenya: Insights from a household food demand model

This paper evaluates the household food security situation in Kenya in terms of access to food. We apply a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model to nationally representative household survey data from Kenya, and estimate and interpret price and expenditure elasticities as indicators of household sensitivity to market shocks. Our estimation results show positive expenditure elasticities, close to unity, while all compensated and uncompensated own-price elasticities are negative and smaller in magnitude. A complementary welfare analysis shows high compensated variations in the long run, ranging between 34% and 131% across food groups. This suggests that rising relative food costs have led to deterioration of the food security situation in Kenya, and the most severely affected households seem to be those that rely on informal markets and reside in rural areas. To improve food security, targeted income support could be a more effective policy than price support, given the much higher estimated expenditure elasticities.     

Convergence in household credit demand across euro area countries: evidence from panel data

This article contributes to the literature on the convergence of financial systems in the euro area by estimating household credit demand in individual countries. Using the ARDL framework advocated notably by Pesaran et al. (1999 Pesaran, MH, Shin, Y and Smith, RP. 1999. Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94: 621–34. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the article provides evidence on the convergence of long-run credit demand determinants (interest rates, investment and house prices) in the largest euro area countries, while short run-dynamics remain heterogenous across countries. The article also demonstrates that the equation uncovers demand rather than supply behaviour.     

Effects of income distribution in an inverse demand system: evidence from Chinese household survey data

This study provides an empirical analysis of the impact of changes in income distribution on food demand in China using data from China Health and Nutrition Survey. A new parametric form of an inverse demand system is introduced and estimated taking into account reported zero consumption. This new form is a natural extension of recent works that accommodate the incorporation of income distribution into the system and imposition of global regularity conditions in estimation. Our results generally indicate that the distribution of households across income groups is important in determining food demand in China and that a movement towards a more equal income distribution in China will stimulate the demand for vegetable, fruit, fish and eggs.     

Testing a theoretical model of mortgage demand on UK data

This study explores whether the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis holds for selected real exchange rates from Turkish economy during the period 1982M1–2003M12. In addition to conventional unit root tests, five different unit root test procedures have been applied including efficient point-optimal tests, extended M tests and GLS-detrended variants of DF tests, to four monthly real exchange rate series defined in terms of both producer and consumer price indices. The countries analysed are the USA, the UK, Germany and Italy which are major trade partners of Turkey. Mixed evidence is found for the long-run PPP hypothesis when real exchange rate is defined in terms of German DM and Italian Lira. However, the empirical analysis reveals that the PPP hypothesis holds strongly in the long-run for the UK£ and US$ based real exchange rates series using either PPI or CPI. In corroboration with other studies in the literature, the bias correlated half-life estimates suggest relatively faster speeds of adjustment supporting the view that the deviations from the PPP rate dissipate rather quickly for relatively high inflation countries.     

A count data model with endogenous household specific censoring: the number of nights to stay

In this paper a count data regression model accounting for endogenous censoring with household specific censoring thresholds is presented. The presented modelling approach is utilized in an analysis of household choice of total number of nights to spend on monthly recreational trips. The empirical study reveals that the suggested approach is feasible and that accounting for endogenous censoring gives a better fit to the data. For helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper we thank two anonymous referees.     

Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967–2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.     

The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa

This paper examines the effects of price on the demand for electricity in South Africa over the period 1950–83. Emphasis is placed on the estimation of the long-run own-price elasticity of electricity demand. An unconstrained distributed lag model is used and the 12 years elasticity is estimated to be –0.90. The policy implications of this finding are discussed.     

Individual decisions and household demand for consumption and leisure

The standard microeconomic assumption of a household utility function raises two theoretical problems: it contradicts methodological individualism and it ignores economic phenomena such as income and consumption sharing, division of labour, externalities and altruism within a household. This paper reviews two approaches, aggregation theory and the more recent non-unitary models, to compare the different properties that household consumption and leisure demands have to satisfy in the two contexts. The paper also discusses some recent empirical evidence that seems to encourage further investigation in the non-unitary framework.     

A household model of charitable contributions and tax incentives

The aim of this paper is to present a theoretical model of the monetary contributions made by households to nonprofit organizations, and to analyse the effect of tax incentives according to the different tax systems currently in force in the European Union Member States. This model is estimated by means of data drawn from the Family Expenditure Survey and the Regional Accounts in Spain covering the period 1990–91. We analyse the effects that different variables and tax incentives have on household decisions. The results indicate that the decisions to donate, and how much to be donated, are taken sequentially and are significantly influenced by household characteristics, the provision of public funds and donation price. The analysis of the Spanish tax system indicates that the model generates donation incentives.     

Location matters: Daylight saving time and electricity demand

The primary rationale for daylight saving time (DST) has long been energy savings. Whether it achieves this goal, however, remains a subject of debate. Recent studies, examining only one location at a time, have shown DST to increase, decrease or leave overall energy demand unchanged. Rather than concluding the effect is ambiguous, this paper is the first to test for heterogeneous regional effects based on differences in sun times (natural factors) and waking hours (societal factors). Using a rich hourly data set and quasi‐experimental methods applied across Canadian provinces, this paper rationalizes the differing results, finding region‐specific effects consistent with differences in sun times and waking hours. DST increases electricity demand in regions with late sunrises and early waking hours.     

Incentive effects of paying demand response in wholesale electricity markets

Recently issued U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulations require comparable treatment of demand reduction and generation in the wholesale electric market so that they are compensated at the same market clearing price. The new regulations measure demand reduction as a reduction from a “customer baseline,” a historically based estimate of the expected consumption. In this paper, we study the incentive effects on the efficiency of the demand response regulation using a static equilibrium model and a dynamic extension of the model. Our analysis provides three main results. Firstly, our analysis shows that the demand reduction payment will induce consumers to (1) inflate the customer baseline by increasing consumption above the already excessive level during normal peak periods and (2) exaggerate demand reduction by decreasing consumption beyond the efficient level during a demand response event. This result persists when applied to alternative baseline designs in a dynamic model. Secondly, we study alternative policy remedies to restore the efficiency of demand response regulation and introduce a new approach to define the customer baseline as a fixed proportion of an aggregate baseline. In particular, the aggregate baseline approach can significantly weaken or eliminate the incentive to inflate the baseline. Finally, we illustrate that if the baseline inflation problem is solved and demand and supply functions are linear, the current policy can produce a net social welfare gain. However, the welfare improvement requires that demand reduction be paid only when the wholesale price is at least twice the fixed retail rate. This argues that the policy should include a sufficiently high threshold price below which demand response is not dispatched.     

A dynamic model of demand for Mediterranean tourism

A dynamic econometric model was specified in order to estimate tourism consumption changes by Northern European countries and the USA for major Mediterranean destinations. The model employed a flexible framework for modelling short-term dynamics as well as the long run effects of a range of variables of specific interest to the countries considered. The estimated model provided useful information for tourism demand. The income elasticities demonstrated considerable differences in tourism demand preferences between origin countries and between traditional and newly developing destinations. The own and substitute price elasticities indicated the importance of effective prices in determining tourism receipts of the destinations.