Measuring Distress Risk: The Effect of R&D Intensity

Because of upward trends in research and development activity, accounting measures of financial distress have become less accurate. We document that (1) higher research and development spending increases the likelihood of misclassifying solvent firms, (2) adjusting for conservative accounting of research and development increases the number of correctly identified distressed firms, and (3) adjusted measures of distress alleviate previously documented anomalously low returns of large, high distress risk, low book‐to‐market firms. The results hold after updating stale parameters and under various tax assumptions. Our evidence raises concerns about interpretation of extant literature that relies on accounting measures of distress.     

R&D AND CAPITAL MARKETS

The substantial growth of R&D expenditures over the last two decades, together with the continuous substitution of knowledge (intangible) capital for physical (tangible) capital in corporate production functions, has elevated the importance of R&D in the performance of business enterprises. At the same time, however, the evaluation of corporate R&D activities by investors is seriously hampered by antiquated accounting rules and insufficient disclosure by corporations. Despite the fact that the expected benefits of R&D stretch over extended periods of time, corporate investments in R&D are immediately written off in financial reports, leaving no trace of R&D capital on balance sheets and causing material distortions of reported profitability. After a brief review of statistics documenting the growth and economic importance of corporate R&D in the U.S., the article presents a comparison of R&D disclosure regulations among industrialized nations that shows U.S. rules to be the least flexible in allowing management discretion in how they measure and report R&D. Next the author surveys the large and growing body of empirical research on R&D, which provides strong testimony to the substantial contribution of R&D to corporate productivity and shareholder value. Moreover, despite widespread allegations of stock market “short termism” throughout the 1980s and early '90s, the research indicates “unequivocally” that capital markets consider investments in R&D as a significant value-increasing activity. But if investors clearly demonstrate a willingness to take the long view of R&D, there is also evidence of undervaluation of some R&D-intensive companies—particularly those with low profitability—as well as other potential costs to corporations and investors stemming from inadequate public information about R&D. To help correct the reporting biases and distortions of R&D, the author offers some suggestions for investors and analysts that follow R&D-intensive companies. In particular, he proposes (1) adjustment of reported data to reflect the capitalization and amortization of (instead of expensing) corporate R&D and (2) the use of various quantitative measures for gauging research capabilities and output, including citations of the firm's patents and measures indicating the share of current revenues coming from products developed within recent years.     

R&D investment and systematic risk

The present study investigates the relationship between a firm's R&D intensity and the risk of its common stock, by analysing a sample of firms which are more profitable, larger in market capitalization and more R&D intensive than the universe of US‐listed firms. The results from the portfolio analysis, Monte Carlos simulations and correlation analysis of our sample show that: (i) R&D intensity is positively related to systematic risk in the stock market; (ii) the greater systematic risk is largely attributable to the greater intrinsic business risk and the greater operating risk of R&D‐intensive firms; (iii) R&D‐intensive firms carry marginally less financial leverage but they do not differ from other firms in terms of operating leverage; and (iv) our results are particularly strong in the manufacturing sector. For the non‐manufacturing sector, the results are not robust for different study periods.     

R&D investment and distress risk

This paper proposes that besides volatility, R&D can increase firms' distress risk through another channel. Unlike capital investment, R&D is more inflexible and subject to high adjustment costs. Moreover, R&D intensive firms face severe financial constraints and are more likely to suspend/discontinue R&D projects. Therefore, firms' distress risk increases with their R&D intensity. Using a large panel of US companies over the 1980 to 2011 period, I find a robust empirical relation between R&D and distress risk, primarily among financially constrained firms. Moreover, the effect of R&D on distress risk is magnified during economic downturns. I also find that firms that have been previously successful in R&D or firms with high analyst coverage can mitigate the relationship between R&D and distress risk.     

Cash holdings and R&D smoothing

The sharp increase in R&D investment in recent decades has important but unexplored implications for corporate liquidity management. Because R&D has high adjustment costs and is financed with volatile sources, it is very expensive for firms to adjust the flow of R&D in response to transitory finance shocks. The main contribution of this paper is to directly examine whether firms use cash reserves to smooth their R&D expenditures. We estimate dynamic R&D models and find that firms most likely to face financing frictions rely extensively on cash holdings to smooth R&D. In particular, our estimates suggest that young firms used cash holdings to dampen the volatility in R&D by approximately 75% during the 1998–2002 boom and bust in equity issues. Firms less likely to face financing frictions appear to smooth R&D without the use of costly cash holdings. Our findings provide new insights into the value of liquidity and the financing of intangible investment, and suggest that R&D smoothing with cash reserves is now important for understanding cash management for a substantial fraction of publicly traded firms.     

Limits of tax regulation: Evidence from strategic R&D classification and the R&D tax credit

We investigate a tax avoidance strategy where firms use the ambiguity inherent in tax reporting to classify indirect costs as research and development (R&D) expenditures to take advantage of the R&D tax credit. We label this tax practice “strategic R&D classification”. We find a one standard deviation increase in strategic R&D classification leads, on average, to a 1.7% (1.5%) reduction in GAAP (cash) effective tax rates, suggesting this practice provides significant tax savings. However, we also find strategic R&D classification is related to both the level and changes in uncertain tax benefit liabilities required to be recognized under FIN 48, suggesting this practice comes with financial reporting costs. Our study contributes to the literature by documenting some of the costs and benefits associated with a previously unexplored tax strategy, and highlights the limitations faced by tax authorities in monitoring firms’ R&D tax credit.     

证券分析师关注与企业研发投入

本文基于2015—2019年中国A股上市企业财务数据,以信息中介假说和业绩压力假说为理论基础,考察了分析师关注对企业研发投入的影响。研究发现：（1）分析师关注对企业研发投入存在倒U形影响,但呈现抑制作用的样本较少,更多呈现出促进作用,且结论在2SLS及GMM估计下依然稳健;（2）分析师关注通过信息解读与业绩压力机制共同影响研发投入;（3）明星分析师关注会引起管理层业绩压力,从而造成研发投入的挤出效应,而低声誉分析师关注不引起该效应;（4）高机构持股可缓解业绩压力效应,使分析师关注促进研发投入提升。本文对于解读分析师功能及分析师与微观企业研发投资决策之间的联系提供了新视角,拓展了企业研发投资研究的逻辑边界。     

The information content of R&D reductions

An extensive literature shows that R&D intensities and increases are positively related to firm performance, but little research examines the valuation of R&D reductions. This paper fills the void by studying long-term performance following R&D reductions. We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, large R&D cuts are associated with positive future stock returns. This return drift cannot be explained by asset pricing factors, including R&D intensities and R&D increases. We explore two potential economic motives behind R&D reductions: R&D spillover and firm life cycle. We show that operating performance deteriorates immediately before R&D reductions but exhibits no abnormal pattern afterward. While firm growth falls substantially and variability in profitability reduces, firms with low or declining investment opportunities and mature firms outperform. These findings are inconsistent with the spillover hypothesis, but support the life cycle story that firms attempt to resolve overinvestment in R&D that arises over the course of firm life cycle.     

R&D productivity following first-time CIO appointments

Prior studies find that firms announcing the appointment of a new chief information officer (CIO) are rewarded by stock price increases, suggesting that the market expects new CIOs to add longterm value to the firm. In this paper, we examine whether first-time CIO appointments result in improved R&D productivity. We focus on R&D investments because one role of IT management is to aid in discovery and management of growth opportunities. Successful R&D activities are designed to create the type of knowledge-based, growth-critical assets (new or improved products, better distribution methods, etc.) that effective IT management would be expected to assist. After controlling for industry performance, we find that the productivity of R&D improves significantly after the appointment of a new CIO for appointments before 1999 (1997–1998) but not for appointments in later years (1999–2007), and that productivity improvements over the entire sample period occur for CIO appointments by firms with superior IT capabilities. Our results for R&D investments suggest that new CIOs improve the way IT is managed and improve their firms' approach to knowledge management.     

Exchange rate undervaluation and R&D activity

We examine how real exchange rate undervaluation policy affects research and development (R&D) activity. Using a panel data set comprising 49 developed and developing countries covering 1996–2011, we show that undervaluing the exchange rate retards technological innovation. Such a negative impact is particularly prominent for developed countries. This paper provides new insights into the real effects of undervaluation policy on the economy. An implication of our work is that countries implementing exchange rate undervaluation policy should be mindful of its potential negative effects on research and development activity.     

对央行数字货币研发的几点思考

近年来各主要国家和地区央行及货币当局均在对发行法定数字货币开展研究,市场上对央行数字货币利弊的讨论也在不断升温。央行数字货币具有传统货币无法比拟的优势,但风险也不容忽视。目前,数字人民币研发进展处于世界前列且受到国内外高度关注。在复杂的国际关系背景下,宜高度关注其潜在风险,有策略地推动数字人民币研发工作。     

The Relation Among Targets' R&D Activities, Acquirers' Returns, and In-Process R&D in the US

Abstract:  Using a sample of 129 mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the US between publicly traded acquirers and targets in research and development (R&D) intensive industries over the period of 1994-2004 and a size- and industry-matched sample, we examine the relation among targets' R&D activities, the probability of acquirers' writing-off in-process R&D (IPRD), and acquirers' returns around the time of M&A announcements. We find that firms acquiring targets with higher R&D investments tend to write off some of the acquired R&D assets upon the completion of the M&As. We also find that the median cumulative abnormal return during the three days around M&A announcements for acquirers with subsequent IPRD write-offs is −2.73% while the return for acquirers without IPRD write-offs is −0.60%. This suggests that acquirers' stock returns around M&A announcements are much lower when investors expect acquirers to expense IPRD. The results are consistent with our conjecture that acquirers tend to write-off IPRD when they acquire overvalued targets. We also find that IPRD write-offs do not increase earnings or stock returns of acquirers after M&As, which is inconsistent with an earnings management hypothesis.     

Employment protection legislation and R&D investment

This paper examines how employment protection legislation influences corporate R&D investment. With a sample of 113,228 observations across 23 OECD countries from 2001 to 2018, I document that firms in strong employment protection legislation have lower R&D expenditure and investment efficiency. In addition, I find that the effect of employment protection on R&D expenditure is stronger in financially constrained firms but the effect of employment protection on R&D investment efficiency is stronger in financially unconstrained firms.     

R&D, knowledge spillovers and stock volatility

Firms improve their know‐how not only by innovations (producing new knowledge), but also by knowledge spillovers (learning from others). The objective of this study is to test for two major hypotheses developed from a theoretical model explaining the relationship between R&D, knowledge spillovers and stock volatility. Analytically, the model suggests that asymmetric information caused by R&D activities with uncertain future output increases stock volatility, even though dividends and consumptions remain unchanged. However, interfirm knowledge spillovers have a negative impact on stock volatility by reducing the degree of asymmetric information. Both hypotheses are supported by empirical evidence from this study.     

Capitalizing R&D expenses versus disclosing intangible information

We study how to improve the value-relevance of financial information for intangible-intensive firms by investigating two alternatives: capitalizing research and development (R&D) expenses and disclosing intangible information. Using patent counts/citations to proxy for intangible intensity, we find that the incremental value-relevance of disclosing patent counts/citations is greater than that of capitalizing R&D expenses for the high-patent group and vice versa for the low- or medium-patent group. Investors favor the disclosure of patent information for firms with more successful innovations. Since disclosing intangible information may lead to appropriation by rivals, we find that, for the high-patent group, the incremental value-relevance of disclosing patent counts/citations is more pronounced for firms in industries with stronger protection of intellectual property. Overall, our results suggest that disclosing R&D outputs can improve the value-relevance of financial statements for firms rich in intangibles and the incremental benefits of such disclosure will be greater in industries with strong protection of intellectual property.     

Legal shareholder protection and corporate R&D investment

This paper investigates the effects of shareholder protection law on corporate R&D investment. I find that the institutional protection of shareholder benefits reduces both underinvestment and overinvestment in R&D projects. Legal shareholder rights significantly increase R&D investment for firms that may underinvest, but reduce R&D for firms that may overinvest. Shareholder protection further enhances the growth of firms in R&D intensive industries, and promotes the economic growth of innovative countries. The results consistently show that enforcing stronger legal shareholder protection can help firms achieve an overall more efficient capital allocation to productive R&D investment.     

Vertical merger,R&D collaboration and innovation

This paper studies the effects of vertical merger and R&D collaboration activities on firms' innovation decisions and stock returns based on a continuous-time real option model under market and technological uncertainties. Our analysis confirms vertical merger's benefit in amplifying the potential gain from innovation through eliminating inefficiencies. We show that vertical merger boosts innovation incentives in two ways: it reduces the optimal innovation threshold when firms suspend the project and increases R&D investment when firms launch the project. If vertical merger is not possible, R&D collaboration can improve firms' innovation levels as an alternative decision, but inefficiencies still exist which implies less pronounced stimulation effects. Both vertical merger and R&D collaboration can reduce firms' risk when conducting innovation project and weaken the positive R&D-returns relation and financial constraints-returns relation, while these effects of vertical merger are stronger than those of R&D collaboration.     

R&D expenditures and implied equity risk premiums

This study investigates the relationship between research and development (R&D) expenditures and risk premiums implied in the costs of equity capital. We posit that R&D expenditures represent an information risk factor resulting from both information asymmetry about R&D between investors and managers and low-quality R&D reporting that impairs the coordination between investors and managers with respect to managers’ investment decisions. Our results support our position by showing a positive association between R&D expenditures and implied equity risk premiums. From this research along with prior studies, investors can have better knowledge about the risky nature of R&D expenditures that drive up implied risk premiums and at the same time provide opportunities to earn excess returns in a short to long horizon. Accounting standard setters can benefit from this study’s findings that R&D expenditures represent an off-balance-sheet risk factor and thus warrant reconsidering SFAS No. 2 for potential capitalization of R&D expenditures.     

Environmental R&D and the uncertainty of future earnings

This paper examines whether the variability in the future earnings stream generated by the investment in environmentally-related R&D projects is different than that created by the investment in other R&D projects. To carry out this investigation, I decompose total R&D expenditures into two components: those related to R&D projects aimed at reducing the firm’s costs to comply with environmental legislation (i.e., the environmental component), and those related to all other R&D projects, which are focused on increasing the firm’s revenues and/or decreasing its other operating costs (i.e., the residual component). As predicted, I find that the environmental component of R&D expenditures contributes significantly less to the variability of future earnings than the residual component.     

Board diversity and corporate propensity to R&D spending

Drawing on collective contributions and group performance perspectives, this paper examines the role of board diversity in firms' R&D investment decisions. Building on a fault-line argument about a team's demographic attributes, this study also decomposes the impact of demographic and cognitive diversity on R&D spending. The study sample contains UK data of non-financial companies covering the period between 2005 and 2018. We employ panel data analysis techniques and control for potential endogeneity issues through the application of the two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimations. The findings demonstrate a positive and significant relationship between board diversity and level of corporate R&D spending. The findings also show cognitive diversity as significantly positively associated with corporate R&D investments. Demographic diversity, however, has an insignificant relationship with corporate spending on R&D. The results further show that demographic diversity negatively moderates the relationship between cognitive diversity and spending on R&D. Our main findings document that the board's attributes as a group significantly influence decisions of strategic importance such as, investment in R&D projects. The findings on sub-dimensions of board diversity imply that as compared to demographic diversity, functional/cognitive diversity is more relevant to strategic decisions and related outcomes. The study has practical implications for shareholders in documenting the importance of board diversity, and policy implications for regulators in highlighting the separate roles of behavioural and cognitive diversity in shaping firms' strategic investment decisions.