Correction to: Do macroeconomic and financial governance matter? Evidence from Germany, 1950–2019

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - A Correction to this paper has been published: 10.1007/s11403-022-00356-7     

Do macroeconomic and financial governance matter? Evidence from Germany, 1950–2019

This study hypothesises that economic governance matters for economic performance; neglecting its role in creating positive synergies between macro- and microeconomic institutions has underlain significant coordination failures and costs. This study examines economic governance in the context of mutual feedback between macro-financial governance (FGV), macro-non-financial governance (NFGV), and micro-financial development (FND) in Germany in the period 1950–2019. The study uses an institutionalist approach, introducing two modes of economic governance based on institutional complementarities and tests its hypotheses using both an exhaustive structuralist analysis and a time-series quantitative technique based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration model and the Vector Error Correction Mechanism. The study concludes that (i) the German model of economic governance based on the positive complementarities between FGV, NFGV and FND in the period 1950–1982 significantly enhanced real economic performance, that (ii) the fragmentation of the model became a key determinant of the country’s weak economic performance in the periods 1983–2019 and 1990–2019, and that (iii) the path-dependence of coordinational mechanisms and underlying institutional dynamics, though fragmented, prevented the genesis and embedding of an irrational exuberance in the country.

     

Governing buyer–supplier relationships through transactional and relational mechanisms: Evidence from China

Building on economic and social exchange theories, this study investigates the different roles transactional and relational mechanisms have in hindering opportunism and improving relationship performance in an emerging economy. Our study applied to manufacturer–distributor dyads in China and used matched survey data (225 paired sample firms) to test our hypotheses. Our hierarchical multivariate regression and semipartial correlation analyses suggest that transactional mechanisms are more effective in restraining opportunism while relational mechanisms are more powerful in improving relationship performance. This performance is improved more significantly when both contracts and relational norms are used jointly than when used separately. Likewise, opportunism is curbed more effectively when both contracts and trust are used jointly than when used individually.     

Returns to firm-provided training: evidence from French worker–firm matched data

Using worker–firm matched data, we study the incidence and the effects of firm-provided training in France. When we use the same kinds of data and models as the existing ones, the estimated impact of training on wages is as high in France as in other countries. When we build on the uniqueness of our French data and control for the selectivity of firms' training practices, the estimated impact of training falls close to zero. The wage differentials observed across trained and untrained workers reflect that individuals who are the most likely to be placed in training programs are also those with the highest unmeasured abilities.     

Health and economic growth in high-income countries revisited: evidence from an augmented production function for the period 1980–2009

This paper uses time series data for seven industrialized countries from 1980–2009 to explore the causality between health care expenditure (HCE) and economic growth. We have set up a classical Cobb–Douglas production function including HCE, labor, capital, and an augmented function additionally including the number of patent applications (as a proxy for technology and research) and the total number of tertiary education students (as a proxy for education). Our results show that there is a long-run relationship between growth and HCE. As regards causality, in the classical production function, evidence for mutual causality between GDP and HCE is noted only in France, Germany and England, causality from HCE to GDP is noted in Italy and Japan, while no causality whatsoever is evidenced in Canada and USA. However, a completely different situation is unveiled when the augmented production function is used with mutual causality being noted in all perused variables. The novelty of our study lies first in that it contributes to the health-growth nexus literature for high-income countries which has been quite controversial and second it sets off new variables whose omission might be one of the reasons of the result dichotomy. Results of this study will be very useful for high-income countries currently afflicted by the economic crisis and embark on HCE curtailments or revisions.     

Tail risk and investors’ concerns: Evidence from Brazil

I estimate tail risk for Brazil from January 2001 to July 2020 and investigate the origins of tail risk variation. The tail risk measure peaks at stock market crashes, financial crises, political shocks and disaster events such as the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, I find that tail risk is countercyclical, has strong predictive power for market returns and negatively predicts real economic activity. In order to identify the investors’ concerns associated with tail risk, I extract daily news from the largest financial newspaper in Brazil. The co-movement between news and tail risk indicates that tail risk variation is mainly driven by disaster concerns, followed by economic and government uncertainty. While economic uncertainty explains the countercyclical property of tail risk, investors only require compensation for bearing tail risk implied by disaster concerns. Similarly, tail risk negatively impacts real outcomes because of the disaster concerns that it identifies. These findings support recent models explaining asset pricing puzzles with time-varying disaster risk.     

Firm-specific,industry-specific and macroeconomic factors of life insurers’ profitability: Evidence from Canada

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of firm-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic factors on the performance of life insurance firms. This study focuses on the Canadian life insurance sector, which is the second largest and oldest financial services sector in Canada. Using an empirical framework that incorporates both fixed and dynamic panel models that control for endogeneity issues, this research finds that size, liquidity, and risk exposure of life insurers are significant factors in their profitability. Secondly, industry concentration (e.g., HHI) fail to provide any meaningful evidence to support the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) theory in the static panel models, but in the dynamic models, industry concentration tends to have negative impacts on profitability. Macroeconomic factors such as real GDP growth and equity market returns are found to be significant determinants of insurers’ profitability. Finally, the persistence of profits for life insurers’ seems to lag that of their financial services counterparts (e.g., banks).     

Hospitals’ strategic behaviours and patient mobility: Evidence from Italy

This study explores the behaviour of hospitals in Lombardy in attracting patients from outside the region and investigates the effects on the quality of care to regional patients, where treatment of the latter is constrained by a budget cap while extra-regional patients represent an unconstrained source of revenue. The data suggest that hospitals use waiting time and length of stay to attract extra-regional patients. Regional patients in both private and public hospitals with higher proportions of extra-regional patients are characterized by lower mortality rates and reimbursement costs. These results suggest that the market for extra-regional patients has no negative effects on resident patients. Finally, the pattern of reimbursement for extra-regional care generates a financial flow in favour of wealthier regions, exacerbating the North–South divide in the National Health Service. Some form of regulation for extra-regional mobility is advisable to reduce the gap.     

The J-Curve at industry level: Evidence from Sweden–US trade

Previous research that investigated the impact of real depreciation of kronor on Swedish trade balance used trade data either between Sweden and the rest of the world or between Sweden and each of her trading partners. Not much support was provided for a significant effect, especially in the case of Swedish–US trade. In this paper we consider the trade flows between Sweden and the US one more time and try to disaggregate the data by industry. We consider the trade balance of each of the 87 industries that trade between the two countries and investigate the short-run and the long-run effects of real depreciation of kronor on each industry's trade balance. While we find short-run significant effects in the majority of the industries, the short-run effects last into the long-run favorable effects only in 23 of 87 industries.     

Mobility and the dynamics of poverty in Iran: Evidence from the 1992–1995 panel survey

In the last three decades, revolutionary Iran has experienced large shocks to its political and economic system with likely effects on poverty, inequality, and economic mobility. While poverty has declined, inequality has remained relatively high and stable over nearly four decades. In this paper, for the first time, we examine poverty and inequality in a dynamic context using a 4-year panel data, collected during 1992–1995. We show that short-term income mobility is relatively high, which helps mitigate persistent high inequality. We offer a range of estimates of transition probabilities, indicating that, for example, someone in the lowest (highest) quintile has between 25% and 50% chance of moving up (down) the income ladder. Focusing on the dynamics of poverty, we distinguish between short- and long-term poor and between chronic and transient poverty. Surprisingly, we find that chronic poverty is a more serious problem in urban than rural areas, while transient poverty is geographically more uniformly distributed. Finally, using Tobit and quantile regression, we examine the correlates of these two types of poverty. Both chronic and transient poverty are higher for households headed by women and by younger and less educated men. While minorities suffer more from transient poverty, they are less likely to be chronically poor. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy to alleviate chronic and transient poverty.     

Directors’ prior life experience and corporate donations: Evidence from China

We use a recent dataset of 16,082 firm-year observations from publicly traded Chinese firms to show that directors who have prior foreign study or work experience make more corporate donations, a result that supports the path dependency theory related to the effect of prior experiences on subsequent behaviors. The relationship between a director’s prior life experiences and corporate charitable contributions is robust across different types of ownership and industry. We show that corporate donations enable firms to have better access to bank loans, reducing their financial constraints. In addition, these directors appear to consume fewer perquisites, implying lower agency cost with corporate donations.     

Accruals quality,information risk,and institutional investors’ trading behavior: Evidence from the Korean stock market

This study analyzes the effect of firm-specific information risk, measured by accruals quality, on the cost of capital using institutional investors’ trading behavior. Institutional investors in firms with lower accruals quality increase their net selling in later years. Furthermore, these investors’ net selling is relevant to the innate and discretionary factors of accruals quality. This relationship is stronger for foreign institutions than for domestic institutions, and it is mostly observed under favorable macroeconomic conditions. We do not observe this relationship for large business groups connected by shares.     

Limited attention,salient anchor,and the modified MAX effect: Evidence from Taiwan’s stock market

The literature documents that investors overweighing the right-tail probability pursue positively skewed assets, leading to lottery-like stocks overpriced. We find that the lottery anomaly primarily exists among stocks further away from their 52-week high prices. After attention-grabbing events with gambling features, inattentive retail investors become aware of certain stocks’ gambling traits and then net buy more lottery-like stocks, which further promotes the lottery anomaly. However, when such stocks are near their 52-week high price, retail investors tend to place little weight on the likelihood that the stock price will rise beyond the 52-week high, thereby reducing the skewness preference. Overall, our findings suggest that the perception of the 52-week high price as a price ceiling influences skewness preference, and that investor attention is the main determinant of whether anchoring bias affects skewness preference.     

Tunneling, overlapping owner and investor protection： Evidence from merger and acquisition in Asia

Tunneling is to describe transfer resource out of the firm for benefit of their controlling shareholders. Better legal protection and stronger social norms improve minority shareholders＇ protection from expropriation. They consequently reduce the private benefits of controlling shareholders （La Porta, 1999）. This study aims to investigate tunneling in the context merger and acquisition （M＆A） and to examine whether tunneling occurs only in emerging markets with poor law enforcement or whether it also occurs in developed countries. This study documents that managers are more likely to overpay target in merger and acquisition with high overlapped owner which have stakes in bidder and target firm. That overpayment, a transfer of wealth from owners of bidder＇s firm to overlapping owners, is a type of tunneling. This study concludes that tunneling occurs in nations not only with low investor protection, but also with high investor protection.     

Convergence of public and private enterprise wages in a transition economy: Evidence from a distributional decomposition in Vietnam, 2002–2014

We examine the transition of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam during the period 2002–2014 from a wage perspective by decomposing the differences in wage distributions between SOE employees and non-SOE employees. Although SOE employees received higher pay in 2002 because of differences in the characteristics and residuals, the differences in coefficients were minimal along the wage distribution during 2002–2014. The differences in characteristics decreased over time in the middle and middle-to-high wage distribution groups. University graduates were the main contributor to the difference in endowments. By 2014, the residuals difference vanished and the pay schemes between SOEs and non-SOEs converged.     

President’s Tweets,US-China economic conflict and stock market Volatility: Evidence from China and G5 countries

This study provides empirical evidence that the tweets from US President Donald J. Trump influence the trading decisions of investors worldwide. We examine the effects of Trump’s tweets related to China on stock market volatility in China and the G5 countries. Our results show that Trump’s original tweets related to the US-China economic conflict expand volatility in stock markets worldwide, and the US-China trade friction intensifies this effect. Furthermore, Trump’s tweets with different sentiments have different impacts on the returns of global stock markets. Our findings confirm that international investors may make their investment decisions based on information conveyed in these tweets.     

Diffusion and spatial equilibrium of a social norm: voting participation in the United States, 1920–2008

Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically and over time for voting, which is strongly influenced by the norm that citizens should vote. A mathematical model for the spread of voting participation under the influence of social conformity is developed based on the diffusion equation, and predictions are tested with spatial analysis of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections from 1920 to 2008. Results show that voter turnout has converged to a stable equilibrium in its geographical distribution across the states—but it is an equilibrium that results in persistent differences at the state level. Results are compared to individual-level and agent-based models. The model may be applied to other types of social diffusion that depend on specific geographical location.     

Debt-deflation,financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR

Since the economic meltdown of 2008–2009 many euro area countries have experienced disinflation, and even deflation, in a period with large debt overhang, creating the conditions for continuing financial market stress. As disinflation and deflation push up the real interest rate, while growth and income declines, the leveraging problem becomes more severe and the economy risks shifting into a regime with high insolvency risk, high financial stress, rising credit spreads, possibly accompanied by strong adverse macroeconomic feedback loops. Investigating the consequences of those magnifying feedback loops, given the debt-deflation, we demonstrate the possibility of unstable dynamics and downward spirals in the presence of regime-dependent macro feedback loops, using a theoretical model with decentralized matching mechanisms on both labor and financial markets. To explore the amplifying linkages between deflation, output, labor and financial markets, we employ a new solution procedure called Non-linear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) to solve our models variants for out-of-steady-state dynamics. We apply a four variable Multi-Regime VAR (MRVAR) model with regime dependent (generalized) impulse-response functions (GIRFs) to study deflationary and financial risk drivers empirically for Southern and Northern EU countries. New measures for financial risk drivers are employed and GIRFs for output, inflation rates, interest rates and financial stress are explored. The econometric results of the MRVAR are roughly in line with the theoretical regime change model.     

Is the Quarter of Birth Endogenous? New Evidence from Taiwan,the US,and Indonesia

Recent evidence based on US data suggests that the quarter or month of birth (QOB or MOB) may be endogenous, since family characteristics can explain up to 50% of the effects of QOB on the education outcomes and earnings of adult males. In this study, based on a sample of one million Taiwanese siblings, we examine university admission at age 18 as our outcome variable and find that at school entry, the oldest (September born) children are 31–38% more likely to be admitted into university at age 18 than the youngest (August born) children, indicating strong seasonality in university admission. The inclusion of controls for family background is found to explain only a small portion of these effects, particularly for males. Given that such results are at odds with the recent US evidence, we revisit the US Census data and find that when racial differences are properly controlled for in the estimation, even a rich set of family characteristics is capable of explaining only a minor proportion of the QOB effects. Furthermore, using data from the US and Indonesia, we find that seasonal temperature variation is unlikely to be an important contributor to the US‐Taiwan disparity. Our findings imply that the validity of using QOB or MOB as an instrumental variable may be dependent on the population being studied and the sample selected.     

Risk spillover and network connectedness analysis of China’s green bond and financial markets: Evidence from financial events of 2015–2020

This study investigated the dynamic return and volatility spillovers, together with the network connectedness analysis between China’s green bond and main financial markets. Based on a multidimensional DCC-GJRGARCH model and the spillover index method, we found significant two-way risk spillovers between the green bond market and traditional bond markets. Moreover, the green bond market was subject to one-way risk spillover from the stock and commodities markets. Meanwhile, risk spillovers between the green bond market, forex market, and monetary market were not significant. Finally, network connectedness analysis provided specific information about connectivity and strength during different subperiods corresponding to financial events. The analysis indicated that under the influence of emergencies, China’s financial market will enhance the risk-spillover level by transforming the same type of market’s internal spillover into cross-market spillover.