International portfolio diversification benefits: Cross-country evidence from a local perspective

We investigate how the benefits of international portfolio diversification differ across countries from the perspective of a local investor. We find that the benefits of investing abroad are largest for investors in developing countries, including when controlling for currency effects. Most of the benefits are obtained from investing outside the region of the home country. These global diversification benefits remain large when controlling for short-sales constraints in developing stock markets. The gains from international portfolio diversification appear to be largest for countries with high country risk. In addition to this cross-sectional evidence, we also provide evidence that diversification benefits vary over time as country risk changes. We find that diversification benefits have decreased for most countries in our sample over the past two decades.     

DO FOREIGN INVESTORS PRICE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK DIFFERENTLY?

We test whether foreign investors price foreign exchange risk differently from local investors. Drawing from the closed‐end country fund literature, we argue that both differential access to information by foreign versus local investors and different sources of exchange risk that investors face (economic or translation exposure) will lead to different pricing of the exchange risk associated with American Depositary Receipt (ADR) investments. We apply a two‐step method to country portfolios of ADRs of Australia, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Our results show that foreign investors generally price exchange risk differently from local investors, and that the source and magnitude of differences in exchange risk pricing vary significantly across countries. Although significant differences in pricing exchange risk between foreign and local investors are observed for Australia, France, and Japan, no such pricing difference is noticed for the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the pricing differences observed for Australian and French ADRs are mainly attributed to the exchange risk of underlying share returns (economic exposure), whereas the pricing differences for Japanese ADRs are mainly attributed to the exchange risk associated with currency translation (translation exposure). We offer some explanations for our findings.     

Can advanced markets help diversify risks in frontier stock markets? Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets

This study examines global diversification benefits from the perspective of local investors in the frontier markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council using two diversification measures: the correlation index and return dispersion. The findings suggest a strong link between market volatility and both diversification measures in all markets, with the exception of Bahrain, indicating that investors in these frontier markets will face significant challenges achieving desired levels of diversification using domestic stocks only. However, I also find that significant amount of market risk in these countries can be eliminated by supplementing domestic portfolios with positions in advanced markets. Finally, I show that risk minimization strategies using foreign traded assets also lead to favorable risk adjusted returns for investors in these markets, stressing the potential benefits of financial liberalization in developing markets.     

Do investors still benefit from culturally home-biased diversification? An empirical study of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan

Due to the continual economic integration and the accumulation of wealth in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, understanding portfolio strategies and the benefits of diversification for these countries is an indispensible element in managing global assets. Using weekly industry-level data, we analyze culturally home-biased diversification strategies and find that local investors still benefit from regional investments. The time-varying benefits of diversification exist even as the economies of this region have become increasingly integrated. Our analysis suggests that stricter weighting bounds reduce the economic values of diversification but enhance the feasibility of the optimal portfolio allocations. The larger benefits gained by Chinese investors suggest that international diversification is more advantageous to investors in emerging economies than to those in richer, developed markets. The robustness tests generate similar findings when we evaluate the out-of-sample effectiveness and the benefits of diversification under various parameter estimation windows.     

Who benefits more from international diversification?

This paper investigates the relative magnitude of the international diversification benefits for the domestic investors in various countries. The constraints of short-sales, over-weighting investments, and investing region are considered. The empirical results suggest that local investors in the less developed countries, particularly in East Asia and Latin America, comparatively benefit more from both regional and global diversification. This finding holds even though the international market has become more integrated so that the diversification benefits have decreased over the past two decades. The results are useful for asset management professionals to determine target markets to promote the business of national/international funds.     

Intra- and inter-regional portfolio diversification strategies under regional market integration: Evidence from U.S. global banks

This study empirically assesses whether being a part of any specific region affects global banks' decisions on capital allocation across 20 developed and 44 emerging markets by using data on U.S. banks in the period from 2006 to 2015. We find that both the intra-bank lending of a parent bank to its affiliates abroad and the local lending of foreign affiliates decrease as internal lending to neighboring countries within a region increases. This finding provides evidence of the negative spillover or contagion effects from regional allocations on the capital allocation of global banks to individual economies. Our findings reflect that financial markets are integrated within the region, which suggests no intra-regional diversification benefits to the United States or to other global investors. Moreover, parent banks' intra-bank lending translates into foreign affiliates' local lending in the host country. A policy implication is that countries in the same region should strengthen coordinated efforts to ensure free intra-regional capital mobility and diversify country-specific risk. The findings of this study can help enhance our understanding of the relationships between financial markets interconnectedness and global banks' portfolio management strategies.     

The international diversification fallacy of exchange-listed securities

This paper reviews various investment vehicles and examines their international diversification potential. The primary focus is on the ability of U.S. exchange-listed investments such as closed-end country funds, American depository receipts (ADRs), and multinational corporations (MNCs) to provide a diversification effect similar to direct investment in foreign equity. The results show that the U.S. exchange-listed securities included in this study behave more like the host exchange than their home exchange. This result suggests that these U.S. exchange-listed securities, on average, do not perform an international diversification role for U.S. investors.     

Long-term international diversification of equities

Equity investors exhibit home bias although they can reduce risk with diversified global portfolios. We studied 118 years of data for 21 developed markets to investigate international diversification benefits for long-horizon equity investors. Investing equal proportions in all the markets would have increased Sharpe ratios only for investors in countries with low domestic ratios. Optimal global portfolios would have significantly increased Sharpe ratios for investors in all the countries. Allocating equal proportions to five optimal countries would have provided most of the maximum potential benefits of international diversification. Investors in countries with lower domestic Sharpe ratios would have benefited more from international diversification, primarily through risk reduction.     

Portfolio Diversification Benefits at Different Investment Horizons During the Arab Uprisings: Turkish Perspectives Based on MGARCH–DCC and Wavelet Approaches

This study is an initial attempt at investigating the extent to which portfolio diversification benefits at different investment horizons are available to a Turkish investor from investment in MENA countries exposed to the Arab spring based on MGARCH-DCC and Wavelet techniques on daily data spanning from 2005 to 2015. The findings tend to suggest that the Turkish investors may not benefit from investment in Egypt for almost all investment horizons but may have moderate benefits from Lebanon up to the investment horizons of 32–64 days and longer. However, Turkish investors may benefit from Oman excepting the longer investment horizons. In the long run, all stock holding periods exceeding 32 days have minimal benefits for portfolio diversification.     

International diversification: An extreme value approach

International diversification has costs and benefits, depending on the degree of asset dependence. We study international diversification with two dependence measures: correlations and extreme dependence. We discover that dependence has typically increased over time, and document mixed evidence on heavy tails in individual countries. Moreover, we uncover three additional findings related to dependence. First, the timing of downside risk differs depending on the region. Surprisingly, recent Latin American returns exhibit little downside risk. Second, Latin America exhibits a great deal of correlation complexity. Third, according to the empirical results, correlation does not vary with returns, but extreme dependence does vary monotonically with regional returns. Our results are consistent with a tradeoff between international diversification and systemic risk. They also suggest international limits to diversification, and that international investors demand some compensation for joint downside risk during extreme events.     

National cultural effects on leverage decisions: Evidence from emerging-market ADRs

We examine leverage decisions in the context of national culture over the 1996–2010 period. Cultural characteristics can explain capital structure decisions from emerging-markets cross-listings. The results show that firms from countries with high Individualism and Indulgence employ more debt. Firms located in countries with high Power Distance, Masculinity, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Long-term Orientation are less leveraged. Additionally, Exchange-traded and capital-raising ADRs are more likely to be from countries with weaker corporate governance. Univariate tests show that capital-raising ADRs employ less debt relative to non-capital-raising ADRs, and notably, in the post-cross-listing period. Interestingly, the home country's cultural characteristics of capital-raising and exchange-traded ADRs exert less influence on their capital structure decisions. Our findings suggest that there is a value discount associated with increased firm leverage. Our insights have practical implications for portfolio managers attempting to enter emerging markets through the use of ADRs. Moreover, investors can evaluate the often neglected effect of cultural values into firm performance.     

Return,volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in the BRIC equity markets: An analysis using a bivariate EGARCH framework

This paper examines the level of integration and the dynamic relationship between the BRIC countries, their respective regions and the world. We find that India shows the highest level of regional and global integration among the BRIC countries, followed by Brazil and Russia and lastly by China. There is a negative relationship between the location conditional volatility of India with that of the Asia-Pacific region and of China with the world, which indicates a presence of diversification opportunities for portfolio investors. Portfolio investors can continue to receive sound returns from taking positions in the index of these countries, however for an outstanding investment performance, they should consider investing in specific areas of growth within the economy rather than the country index.     

Pricing of American Depositary Receipts under Market Segmentation

This article examines the pricing of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in a three-factor pricing model. A seemingly unrelated regression model is utilized to test the nonlinear parameter restriction implied by the model. It is found that, although ADRs are traded in the U.S. securities market, their returns are significantly affected by their respective home market factors rather than by U.S. market movements. While U.S. investors are exposed to incremental risk from foreign equity market, they do not command a risk premium. The findings suggest that (1) markets are segmented and ADR listing does not integrate world capital market and (2) ADRs behave more like a foreign security and ADR is an effective tool of global risk diversification for U.S. investors.     

Global Property Market Diversification

This paper examines global diversification benefits provided by developed property markets over 1992–2007. We employ a cointegration methodology, invariant to pair-wise correlational instability plaguing MPT approaches, to investigate regional and country property market diversification benefits for U.S. domiciled global real estate investors. We show, theoretically and empirically, the cointegration procedure aptly identifies markets integrated by common trends that mitigate diversification potential. We show global property markets are interregionally independent but find intraregional market cointegration. A portfolio of markets independent of cointegrating relationships performs best during the period but is insufficiently diversified relative to a cointegrated portfolio. Independent country markets do account for the bulk of global property diversification gains but cointegrated markets, particularly from the North American and Asia Pacific regions, retain some diversifying qualities. We also show cointegrated markets converge toward benchmark characteristics, reducing their attraction as portfolio candidates.     

Do IPO index portfolios improve the investment opportunities for mean–variance investors?

We set out in this study to examine whether investors can improve their investment opportunity sets through the addition of an IPO index portfolio into various sets of benchmark portfolios. Using the IPOX indices from the years 1980–2006, we find that adding an IPO index portfolio does lead to a statistically significant enlargement of the investment opportunity set for investors. Our empirical findings are robust, demonstrating that there is scope for the further development of financial products relating to IPO stocks, since investors can gain diversification benefits through investing in such IPO-related products.     

Stock return predictability in emerging markets: Does the choice of predictors and models matter across countries?

This study aims to examine return predictability in 24 emerging markets disaggregated in different regions. We propose four specifications, including a benchmark model. Then, an augmented model appropriate for each country, including a large set of potential factors, is evaluated. Furthermore, a dynamic multifactor model is investigated for all countries. Finally, we relax the symmetric hypothesis in asset return predictability based on a non-parametric non-linear approach: the projection pursuit regression model. Our study reveals three main findings. First, we reject all previous findings supporting a standard model of asset return predictability that is valuable for all countries, as we show that each country has specific domestic factors (both macroeconomic and financial) useful to predict future returns. Second, our empirical framework shows that asset return predictability might be robustly modelled based on non-linear specification based on the projection pursuit regression model. Our findings’ explanatory power of out-of-sample estimations is economically relevant. Our results are useful for investors and policy-makers for portfolio diversification and regulation policies.     

The effect of foreign segment location on the geographical diversification discount

We study how the countries in which foreign segments are located affect the value of globally-diversified firms. We use the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal Index of Economic Freedom and the World Bank's Financial Development and Structure database to characterize the locations of the foreign segments. We find that U.S. globally-diversified firms with foreign segments in countries with more entrepreneurs (i.e., Business Freedom) and a better investment environment (i.e., Investment Freedom) are associated with higher excess values. Our findings suggest that globally-diversified firms can add value by carefully selecting locations for their foreign segments in countries that rate highly on key indices of economic freedom. Our analysis of the World Bank's Financial Development and Structure factors shows that investors do not value highly U.S. globally-diversified firms with foreign segments in overseas locations that share the same “financial” characteristics as their home country. We attribute that to a lack of heterogeneity between parent- and foreign segment-country characteristics, thus nullifying the diversification benefits for the parent company's shareholders.     

The aggregate cost of equity underdiversification

We analyze equity diversification of all retail investors in a country (Denmark). We find that underdiversification is pervasive. We calculate the nationwide aggregate loss due to underdiversification and express it in absolute and expected‐return terms. The aggregate loss is large. We find that investors with low education, low income, and low wealth are more likely to underdiversify. Despite better diversification, the larger fraction of the aggregate loss nevertheless adheres to the top of the income/wealth distribution. Finally, our results indicate that underdiversification arises because investors have limited information about the benefits of diversification.     

Does a Held-to-Maturity Strategy Impede Effective Portfolio Diversification for Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Portfolios? A Multi-Scale Continuous Wavelet Correlation Analysis

There is a critical gap in the literature in studying the portfolio diversification opportunities available to sukuk investors and evaluating these in light of held-to-maturity strategies usually adopted by these investors. This article has made an initial attempt to study the portfolio diversification strategies for sukuk portfolios across heterogeneous investment horizons. Our findings critically indicate that returns between local currency sukuk in different markets generally have low levels of correlations across different investor holding periods, thus enabling both short and long-run portfolio diversification benefits. However, in contrast, international currency sukuk issued in different markets exhibits high levels of correlations in the longer-term investor holding periods. Also, in the domestic market context, returns on different classes of domestic sukuk are found to exhibit strong correlations in the longer-holding periods. Our findings critically highlight the feasibility of held-to-maturity sukuk investment strategies from a portfolio diversification perspective.     

International Real Estate Mutual Fund Performance: Diversification or Costly Information?

We investigate the net effect between diversification benefit and information cost of international real estate mutual funds from three dimensions: whether investors can benefit from investing in international real estate mutual funds, whether managers of international real estate mutual funds possess superior market knowledge and timing abilities, and whether investors are motivated by returns or diversification. Our findings are threefold. First, the results show that international real estate mutual funds perform better and are less risky than domestic real estate mutual funds before Jun 2007. That is, diversification benefits outweigh the information costs, and investors therefore gain from investing in international real estate mutual funds. However, the benefit is reduced because of the economic shock of sub-prime financial crisis. Second, on average, neither international mutual fund managers nor domestic mutual fund managers possess market timing abilities. Finally, we find that fund flows are driven by investors’ return-chasing behaviors and fund size, but not by diversification purpose.