可转换债券发行公司的最优决策

本文从公司和投资者之间的博弈入手,研究可转债发行后,发行公司在行使调整转股价格的权利和赎回的权利时的决策目标和最优决策行为.分析表明,发行公司的决策目标是以尽可能高的转股价格尽可能早地实现转股,除非面临回售的压力,公司不会主动调整转股价格,调整的幅度仅以保证回售日投资者不回售为限.只要满足赎回条件,公司通常会行使赎回权,以便实现强制性转股,实现尽可能早转股的决策目标.本文得到的5个重要推论对于可转债的准确定价和可转债发行条款的设计均有重大指导意义.     

A generalized algorithm for duration and convexity of option embedded bonds

This article derives a generalized algorithm for duration and convexity of option embedded bonds that provides a convenient way of estimating the dollar value of 1 basis point change in yield known as DV01, an important metric in the bond market. As delta approaches 1, duration of callable bonds approaches zero once the bond is called. However, when the delta is zero, the short call is worthless and duration of callable will be equal to that of a straight bond. On the other hand, the convexity of a callable bond follows the same behaviour when the delta is 1 as shown in Dunetz and Mahoney (1988) as well as in Mehran and Homaifar’s (1993) derivations. However, in the case when delta is zero, the convexity of a callable bond approaches zero as well, which is in stark contrast to the non-zero convexity derived in Dunetz and Mahoney’s paper. Our generalized algorithm shows that duration and convexity nearly symmetrically underestimate (overestimate) the actual price change by 11/10 basis points for ± 100 basis points change in yield. Furthermore, our algorithm reduces to that of MH for convertible bonds assuming the convertible bond is not callable.     

Electricity Production in a Hydro System with a Reservoir Constraint*

In this paper, our purpose is to analyze how market power might affect the allocation of production between seasons (summer and winter) in a hydropower system with reservoir constraints and inflow uncertainty. We find that, even without market power, the price in the summer season might be lower than the expected price in the winter season. In some situations, market power can lead to higher sales and a lower price in summer than would be observed in the competitive outcome; in other situations, it can lead to the opposite result. Furthermore, market power can lead to a smaller price difference between summer and winter.     

激励扭曲下的管理层收购

传统观点认为国有企业绩效下降后的管理层收购是明晰企业产权,从根本上改善企业经营绩效的理性改革。本文分析指出,实践过程中供求双方激励扭曲下的管理层收购反而是导致20世纪90年代中后期以来国有企业绩效下降的重要原因。从需求角度而言,攫取由双边垄断的交易结构和以净资产价值为基础的交易价格共同形成的巨额“交易利润”是管理层收购国有企业的主要动力;从供给角度而言,预算约束硬化下以财政收入最大化为目标的各级政府总是存在卖出亏损或绩差国有企业的积极性。均衡分析表明:在法制和资本市场不完善时期,管理层通过关联交易、操纵项目投资和财务报表等灰色方式制造企业绩效恶化的假象,却可能无损于企业真实绩效;而随着法制和资本市场的逐步完善,使企业绩效真正地变差反而可能是管理层的最优选择。     

FDI与房价

本文在存量模型基础上,构建了一个外资参与的房地产市场局部均衡模型,考察了外资对房价的影响。理论模型显示,需求环节外资流入将导致房价上涨,开发环节外资流入将导致房价下降。本文使用中国35个大中城市1996-2010年的房地产市场和FDI数据,发现开发环节外资（FDI）对中国大中城市房价具有显著负向影响。另一方面,FDI与房价的影响是非对称的,FDI对房价的影响大于房价对FDI的影响。因此,为抑制高房价,在对需求环节外资（“热钱”）严格限制下,应鼓励外资进入房地产开发。此外,收入是影响房价的最主要因素;城市化越快,房价越容易上涨。     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MODELS OF HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL DIFFERENTIATION

This paper shows how to derive the income and substitution effects of a price change in a differentiated goods model. In the process of doing so, I show how to convert a model of a vertically differentiated market into one of horizontally differentiation by constructing two market-specific functions. One of these functions would represent the acknowledged ranking of types if the market were vertically differentiated; the other is a simple function representing the disutility associated with consuming a non-ideal type.     

有控制权利益的企业融资工具选择 --可转换债券融资的理论思考

本文扩展Stein( 1 992 )的模型,从控股股东角度出发考察在有控制权利益的情形下,企业对不同融资工具的选择,包括发行普通债券、可转换债券以及股票三种融资形式。控制权利益的存在使得“好”企业有内在动力发行可转换债券,Stein模型中无成本的分离均衡将不是唯一的。企业发行可转换债券是市场上各类企业的控股股东和外部投资者相互博弈的结果,而控股股东追求控制权利益的行为会给市场带来更多的不确定因素,增加了企业融资的代理成本,加剧了市场波动和投机行为,对此有必要加以控制     

期货价格波动分析的弹性系统模型

有效市场理论是市场价格波动的基础理论,然而,其假设及分类的理想化,很难很好解释复杂的市场现象,为此,本文提出了趋于有效的假说,使其与现实复杂的实际市场吻合。在此基础上,借鉴物理学的弹性系统模型,对影响价格因素细分,进而构建价格波动的弹性系统模型,来更好地解释价格波动的特性和主要动力源泉,并为市场分析提供有效的思路。     

A lattice approach for pricing convertible bond asset swaps with market risk and counterparty risk

This paper proposes a new lattice framework for valuing convertible bonds (CBs) and asset swaps on CBs (CBASs) with market risk and counterparty risk, where interest rate is assumed to follow a mean-reverting square root process. The reduced-form approach is generalized to include a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process for equity price prior to default. In order to approximate the CEV process while taking into account stochastic interest rate and the correlation between stock price and interest rate, I first propose a transform that is uncorrelated with interest rate, and then construct a new lattice method which can ensure the validity of branching probabilities for all nodes. The lattice framework performs properly when it is used to value European call options. Based on the empirical results in Duffie et al. (J. Fin. Econ. 83(3): 635-665, 2007) and Jankowitsch et al. (J. Bank. Fin. 32(7): 1269-1285, 2008), a novel default intensity process is constructed which is specified as a function of time, stock price, and interest rate. When valuing the asset swaps, the counterparty risk is taken into consideration. Based on the results of the numerical experiments, the impacts of different parameters on the prices of CBs and CBASs are explained.     

Searching for price parity in the European whitefish market

The purpose of this paper is to test for price parity across different species of whitefish in the European Union. Price parity is defined by a system of cointegrated prices and would be evidence of a single European market for whitefish. Whitefish are of interest because EU fishers receive the largest share of their income from these fish species. Notwithstanding the single market policy of the EU, by establishing national and regional associations to stabilize or increase the local price of fish, fishers operate as if the European market is made up of separate submarkets with price being determined largely within each submarket. If whitefish markets were price cointegrated such associations would be largely ineffective. In that case, what are required are regulations that encompass the European market.     

制度建设、公司特质信息与股价波动的同步性——基于R~2研究的视角

本文运用中国市场数据,研究了可转债作为内部人信号发送工具的潜在机理,部分解释了发行转债的信息对股价短期变动的影响方向,同时解释了成熟市场和中国等新兴市场的外部投资人在处理转债发行信息方面所具有的差异。     

Influence of economic factors on the valuation effects of debt offerings

The obejective of this paper is to determine whether the share price responses to debt offerings are influenced cross-sectially by economic factors. We develop hypotheses that share price responses are inversely related to nominal interest rates, and to the issuing firm's stock price level relative to the market, and positively related to economic growth. After controlling for firm-specific characteristics used in previous studies, we find that the share price responses to straight debt offerings are not significantly related to the nominal interest rates or to the issuing firm's relative stock price level, but are positively related to the economic growth. We also find that share price responses to convertible debt offerings are significantly related to the nominal interest rates, the issuing firm's relative stock price level, and economic growth in the manner hypothesized. These results imply that the signal emitted by a firm's debt offering can be influecnced not only by firm-specific characteristics, but also by prevailing economic conditions.     

A behavioral cobweb-like commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators

According to empirical studies, speculators place significant orders in commodity markets and may cause bubbles and crashes. This paper develops a cobweb-like commodity market model that takes into account the behavior of technical and fundamental speculators. We show that interactions between consumers, producers and heterogeneous speculators may produce price dynamics which mimics the cyclical price motion of actual commodity markets, i.e., irregular switches between bullish and bearish price developments. Moreover, we find that the impact of speculators on price dynamics is non-trivial: depending on the market structure, speculative transactions may either be beneficial or harmful for market stability.     

房地产税、市场结构与房价

本文在住房流量模型的基础上,构建了一个购房者和开发商的住房市场局部均衡模型,考察了完全垄断和完全竞争情形下房地产税与房价之间的关系。结果表明,无论何种市场结构,提高房地产税均导致房价下降;住房市场垄断性越强,房价越高,房地产税对房价影响越大。笔者对1996-2008年中国33个大中城市数据的检验发现,市场结构对房价影响大于房地产税。房地产税增长率每增加1%,房价增长率将减少0.03%;勒纳指数每增加1%,房价增长率将增加0.16%。房地产税与市场结构相互作用将使房价上涨,但影响微不足道。因此,对住宅开征房地产税,将对房价上涨有一定限制作用,但不能有效抑制房价上涨,而增强住宅市场竞争性、降低开发商垄断具有显著效果。     

On the transaction values of land use rights in rural China

Land Use Rights (LURs) in China affect farmers’ productivity through investment incentives and the way land is allocated across households. LURs have implication and trade-offs between equity and growth. This paper examines how Chinese farmers might respond if the Chinese government made it legal for farmers to buy or sell LURs. Livelihood choices, labor substitution, market infrastructure, a lack of property right protections, entrepreneurship, bureaucracy, and political will are all influential factors that will determine whether such a program would work. The purpose of this paper is to examine the economics of transaction in LURs, estimate the value at which LURs could transact in equilibrium, and to analyze factors that would affect these price changes. We evaluate farmer’s intention to buy and sell LURs and how much they are willing to pay and receive for LURs.     

对中国可转换公司债券发展路径的评析

中国可转换公司债券的发展经历了探索期、试点期和发展期三个阶段，各阶段具有各自的经验教训。当前利用可转债融资在企业特性、行业选择和发行时机方面存在误区，基于经济理性假设，不同类别的企业以及企业发展的不同阶段，应根据自身的发展战略、市场状况以及融资成本来选择是否采用可转债融资。     

电子商务平台上的信息不对称、交易成本与企业机制的运用

基于交易成本理论,将电子商务平台上交易的商品分为两类——物理属性标准的商品和物理属性不标准的商品,将商品信息分为两类——物理描述信息和价格信息,研究了两类商品在两类信息上存在的信息不对称问题,并对比分析了在线交易中的市场机制和企业机制。指出:在市场机制下,信誉机制和搜索排名机制能有效缓解物理属性不标准的商品在物理描述信息上的信息不对称,但无法有效缓解物理属性标准的商品在价格信息上的信息不对称,解决物理属性标准的商品的价格信息不对称需要企业机制;在电子商务平台上部分地用企业机制代替市场机制可以减少交易成本。     

Location choices and third‐degree spatial price discrimination

This paper studies how firms choose their product differentiation levels when they engage in third‐degree price discrimination in the following product market competition in a location‐price model. We show that firms will not choose to locate at the two endpoints if different consumer groups have similar sizes. Hence, the principle of maximum differentiation does not hold, resulting in a more intense product market price competition. Only if the size of one group of consumers is sufficiently larger than that of the other group, would firms make their products as differentiated as possible by choosing the two endpoints as their locations.     

有限理性、异质预期与房价内生演化机制

本文通过将传统蛛网模型推广为双边异质预期蛛网模型,分析了房价的内生演化机制,通过数值分析考察了市场参与者心理预期对房价的影响。结论表明,市场中基本面分析者的预期不影响房价动态系统的稳定性,技术分析者与开发商的预期则导致房价波动,进而影响房价动态系统的稳定性。模型还给出了房地产开发成本对房价动态演化的影响。开发成本不仅对基本面价格有正向冲击,而且当成本增加到一定临界值后也将导致房价演化出现分岔。     

Prices versus quantities: environmental regulation and imperfect competition

By exercising market power, a firm will distort the production, and therefore the emissions decisions, of all firms in the market. This paper examines how the welfare implications of strategic behavior depend on how pollution is regulated. Under an emissions tax, aggregate emissions do not affect the marginal cost of polluting. In contrast, the price of tradable permits is endogenous. I show when this feedback effect increases strategic firms’ output. Relative to a tax, tradable permits may improve welfare in a market with imperfect competition. As an application, I model strategic and competitive behavior of wholesalers in a Mid-Atlantic electricity market. Simulations suggest that exercising market power decreased emissions locally, thereby substantially reducing the regional tradable permit price. Furthermore, I find that had regulators opted to use a tax instead of permits, the deadweight loss from imperfect competition would have been even greater.