Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The paper examines the monetary policy actions through which central banks in sub‐Saharan Africa have tried to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two different monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone) and an inflation targeting policy regime (Ghana and South Africa) when central banks respond to demand, supply, and fiscal shocks. We extend the usual forecasting and policy analysis system models to replicate the economic features of these economies during the period 2002–12 and to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to these shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate in helping the economies escape from the effects of negative demand shocks, both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur, while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.     

Underlying Demand for Licensed Childcare Services in Urban Japan*

There is growing concern regarding the problem of children waiting for licensed daycare services in Japan's metropolitan areas. In addition to the large number of children on the publicly announced waiting lists, there is an even larger group of underlying demanders, who would otherwise choose to apply for licensed childcare services if the waiting lists were not so long. The present paper attempts to use the contingent valuation method to estimate the underlying demand for licensed childcare services in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. As a result, we find that the underlying waiting rate for licensed childcare services is much higher than the publicly announced waiting rate; that the shortage of service supply for children aged below 1 year old is especially prominent; and, that the total number of children (age ≤ 3) in the status of underlying demand even exceed the present enrolment considerably.     

具有不确定交货期的供应链协调及效率研究

研究了制造商和销售商组成的二级供应链管理,销售商在有固定长度的销售季节内面临不确定性需求,制造商由于各种不可控因素交货期不能保证。文章建立了交货期延迟情形下制造商对销售商进行收益一致性补偿的模型,对比了分散决策与集中决策下的最优订货量和收益变化。通过算例仿真与数值求解,重点分析了制造商与销售商在应对需求与交货期不确定时,各种不同条件下供应链协调的效率,为企业决策提供理论支持。     

Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan

Finding the causal effects of liquidity shocks on credit supply is complicated by the endogenous relation between loan demand and liquidity position of banks. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by exploiting, as a natural experiment, the exogenous deposit outflow prompted by the removal of a blanket deposit guarantee on time deposits in Japan. We find that during the period of transition from a blanket guarantee to a partial guarantee, weak banks suffered from a large outflow of partially insured time deposits. More importantly, we find that those weak banks were not able to raise a sufficient amount of other types of deposits to make up for the loss of time deposits, which, consequently, forced them to cut back on loan supply. These results are consistent with the theory that the imperfect substitutability of insured deposits and uninsured deposits affects the tightness of banks’ financing constraints and ultimately the supply of bank loans.     

Dry bulk shipping and the evolution of maritime transport costs, 1850–2020

We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyse a new dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant.     

中国未来粮食供求趋势预测

对我国未来40-50年的粮食供求趋势预测表明，在我国的人口增长期（即大多数专家所认为的2030年人口峰值之前的时间里），我国粮食供需形势将会偏紧，要实现我国粮食的全部自给有较大的难度，但在此之后，随着我国人口的减少和粮食单产的提高，我国粮食供需将会趋于平衡。     

Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries

This paper investigates the effects of China on the BRIS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. We identify Chinese supply and demand shocks and assess their transmission to BRIS in a structural dynamic factor model framework estimated over the period 1995Q2‐2009Q4. The findings show that Chinese supply shocks are more important than its demand shocks. Supply shocks produce positive and significant output responses in all BRIS countries. And while these supply shocks have a permanent impact on the BRIS countries, the effects of demand shocks are short‐lived. Both supply and demand shocks are transmitted through trade rather than financial linkages. However, the responses of the BRIS countries are heterogeneous and therefore require country‐specific policy responses.     

SYNCHRONISATION BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE U.S.: A STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS

This paper studies the synchronisation of the South African and the US cycles and transmission channels through which supply and demand shocks from the US affect economic activity in South Africa in a structural dynamic factor model framework. We find, using the full-sample period, US supply shocks are transmitted to South Africa through business confidence and imports of goods and services; while US demand shocks are transmitted via interest rates, stock prices, exports of goods and services, and real effective exchange rates. Second, there is a decrease in integration over time translated by a drop in synchronisation of cycles. The impact of an increase in comovement of GDP is outweighed by the structural reforms initiated by the government after the end of apartheid. Finally, the idiosyncratic component still plays an important role in the South African economy.     

Oil Price Shocks and the Credit Default Swap Market

We investigate the impact of supply and demand shocks in the global crude oil market on the CDX spread, in the context of a structural VAR model based on monthly data, over the period from November 2003 to October 2015. We find that the reaction of the CDX spread to changes in the real price of crude oil differs considerably depending on the sources of shocks. In the long run, crude oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks together account for nearly 90% of the variation of the CDX spread.     

Deflationary shocks and monetary rules: An open-economy scenario analysis

The paper considers the macroeconomic transmission of demand and supply shocks in an open economy under alternative assumptions on whether the zero interest floor (ZIF) is binding. It uses a two-country general-equilibrium simulation model calibrated to the Japanese economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Negative demand shocks have more prolonged and startling effects on the economy when the ZIF is binding than when it is not binding. Positive supply shocks can actually extend the period of time over which the ZIF may be expected to bind. More open economies hit the ZIF for a shorter period of time, and with less harmful effects. Deflationary supply shocks have different implications according to whether they are concentrated in the tradables rather than the nontradables sector. Price-level-path targeting rules are likely to provide better guidelines for monetary policy in a deflationary environment, and have desirable properties in normal times when the ZIF is not binding. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 665–698.     

The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar

We examine the influence of rapid growth in China's money supply on the US dollar within a framework of monetary models of exchange rates. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate using US and global data on price level, output, and interest rates, and money supply data for the US, China, and the rest of the world for the period 1996–2013. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of mean squared forecast error in the long run. A monetary error correction model with sticky prices performs best. Rolling sample analysis indicates changes over time in the influence of Chinese money supply in forecasting the US dollar. The expectation is that rapid money growth in China would increase the demand for dollars thus raising the value of the dollar, yet our forecasts are to the contrary for the mid 2000s. This is consistent with anticipation of renminbi appreciation under China’s managed exchange rate, which made holding renminbi more attractive. With the break from a dollar peg in 2005 and subsequent currency appreciation, the distortion was alleviated and the forecast direction for the dollar became as expected.     

慈善的供给与需求分析

十六届四中全会首次将慈善事业纳为社会保障制度的重要组成部分。本文从慈善的供给和需求的慈善发展两个方面,总结慈善供给和需求的产生缘由及表现,分析慈善供给与需求的平衡,当慈善产品的供给量等于需求量时,慈善市场就达到了均衡状态。慈善产品市场的均衡只能是一种局部均衡。由于慈善产品本身的特点使得在谋求慈善市场的局部均衡中,政府不能成为主导力量。     

Potential demand and external trade

Summary Both in theoretical and empirical studies of international trade relative prices play a dominant role. Standard international trade theory asserts that under certain conditions the price mechanism may lead to an equilibrium between demand for and supply of goods from and to different countries. For short periods, some relevant conditions may not be fulfilled; in that case other adjustments such as changes in non price conditions may equate demand and supply or, alternatively, disequilibria may exist. Direct statistical evidence on non price conditions, excess demand and excess supply is scarce.This paper describes a partly indirect approach of the not price conditioned trade fluctuations. The basic model assumes that these fluctuations are largely dependent on pressure of demand, which is defined as the tension between potential demand and potential supply. In this way both exports and imports are divided in a potential component, dependent on relative prices, and a pressure induced component. The other main assumption is that actual domestic demand changes according to the demand function. Combining these relations, potential demand for domestic products is the sum of domestic demand and potential export demand minus potential import demand. Potential supply is assumed to be a constant fraction of the exogeneously given production capacity.The model is used for an iterative approximation of the changes in potential demand and pressure of demand for the Netherlands. For this purpose estimations for actual exports and actual imports of commodities are derived from the model. In the initial estimations, potential demand is approximated by means of actual demand, during consecutive rounds the results of the preceding stages are used. After three rounds the coefficients are stable. The values calculated for the yearly changes in potential demand are for most years in concordance with a priori expectations. For the reference period, the explanatory power of the computed pressure of demand is either of about the same quality as that of conventional pressure variables or better.     

共享时代社会多元主体嵌入养老服务体系——基于武汉市养老现状的调研

养老是事关实现共同富裕目标和亿万百姓福祉的重大社会问题。研究面向传统养老服务体系供需两端开展调研，发现其需求端存在供需结构不均匀、制度建设不完善、服务质量不达标、精神满足不充分等困难，供给端存在活动时间固定、活动形式单一、活动开展形式化和人员管理不规范等痼疾。在此基础上，借助“共享养老”平台的联动效应，尝试探索多元主体嵌入养老服务体系的新路径，提出完善政策制度、全面强化资源统筹能力，多元主体参与、高效整合社会养老资源，弘扬助老风尚、充分发挥文化粘合作用等政策建议。     

美国健康医疗服务产业研究及对上海市的启示

随着生活水平的提高,人口规模的持续增大、人口结构日益的老龄化,人们对健康保健的需求层次、需求广度发生了巨大的变化,对多元化及多层次的健康服务需求大大增加。文章以全球医疗健康服务业最发达的波士顿地区为例,概况总结其健康服务业集群发展机理。同时,文章将上海12km2健康医疗密集区与波士顿作对比研究,旨在为上海市健康医疗服务业的发展提供一些借鉴与启示。     

需求波动下众包物流平台动态定价策略

以平台利润最大化为目标,构建在不同供需条件下的众包物流平台动态定价模型,求得最优动态价格解以及激励系数和惩罚系数对于市场需求和最优价格等的影响.研究表明:众包物流平台的最优价格会发生动态变化,它主要受时间和市场需求波动的影响,也受激励系数和惩罚系数的影响;尤其是配送高峰期时,最优动态价格和市场需求也显著受到配送人员激励系数和惩罚系数的影响.     

The Medicaid program: The low-income health care subsidy

Conclusions While these data are inadequate to empirically test the foregoing three hypotheses, they are sufficient to caste doubt on the validity of the assumption upon which the design of the low-income medical care subsidy is based; i.e., that the private medical care market is efficient and therefore adequate to meet the health needs of all low-income groups. Further, analysis of the supply side of the market may show in-kind demand subsidies insufficient to improve the health status of the poor. A coordinated demand and supply subsidy may be necessary.     

Education,globalization and catch-up: Scandinavia in the Swedish mirror

This paper estimates and analyses wage inequality trends in Portugal, from 1944 to 1984, a period that comprises the Estado Novo dictatorship and the first decade after the transition to democracy. Wage inequality is measured by the gap between skilled and unskilled labour, and reveals a downward trend in most of the period in analysis. We provide an explanation for the observed trends by looking at the influence of domestic and international forces on changes in the relative supply and demand of skilled labour. According to our findings, the skill premium declined due to the combined influence of two major forces: an increase in the relative supply of skilled labour due to the mass emigration of unskilled labour, and the decrease in the relative demand for skills, related to trade-induced changes stemming from the country's increasing openness, which followed the country's unskilled labour comparative advantages. Our findings point to the conclusion that the impact of openness on wage inequality is related to the country's relative level of development among its major trading partners.     

Deflation,Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880–1914 Period

In this paper we examine the sources and impact of deflation on the growth experiences of the four dominant countries on the gold standard in the period 1880–1913: the United States, The United Kingdom, France and Germany. We distinguish between good deflation, (driven by positive aggregate supply shocks) and bad deflation (driven by aggregate demand shocks). We use an empirical Blanchard/Quah model which decomposes the behaviour of prices, output and the money stock into the impact of shocks such as a world price level shock, a domestic supply shock, and domestic demand shocks including a shock to the domestic gold stock. Our key finding is that the European economies were essentially classic in the sense that output was mainly supply driven and that money was neutral even when country specific gold stocks are included. In the United States, however, we observe both good and bad deflation.     

Revisiting the Phillips curve for India and inflation forecasting

This paper focuses on modeling and forecasting inflation in India using an augmented Phillips curve framework. Both demand and supply factors are seen as drivers of inflation. Demand conditions are found to have a stronger impact on non-food manufactured products (NFMP) inflation vis-a-vis headline wholesale price inflation; moreover, NFMP inflation is found to be more persistent than headline inflation. Both these findings support the use of NFMP inflation as a core measure of inflation. But, the impact of global non-fuel commodities on NFMP inflation is found to be substantial. Inflation in non-fuel commodities is seen as a more important driver of domestic inflation rather than fuel inflation. The exchange rate pass-through coefficient is found to be modest, but nonetheless sharp depreciation in a short period of time can add to inflationary pressures. The estimated equations show a satisfactory in sample as well as out-of-sample performance based on dynamic simulations. Nonetheless, forecasting challenges emanate from volatility in international oil and other commodity prices and domestic food supply dynamics.