An empirical note about additive outliers and nonstationarity in Latin-American inflation series

This note shows the empirical dangers of the presence of large additive outliers when testing for unit roots using standard unit root statistics. Using recent proposed procedures applied to four Latin-American inflation series, I show that the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected.Jel classification: C2, C3, C5I want to thank Pierre Perron for useful comments on a preliminary version of this paper. Helpful comments from an anonymous referee, and Yiagadeesen Samy are appreciated. I thank the Editor Baldev Raj for useful comments about the final structure of this paper. Finally, I also thank André Lucas for helpful suggestions concerning the use of his nice computer program Robust Inference Plus Estimation (RIPE).First revision received: August 2001/Final revision received: December 2002     

Quasi-fundamental exchange rate variation

Summary. This paper uses a general equilibrium model to study the determination of the exchange rate in an economy with fundamental uncertainty. The model has steady state equilibria in which the exchange rate is constant. These equilibria may coexist with “quasi-fundamental” equilibria – nonstationary equilibria in which the exchange rate displays stochastic fluctuations that are correlated with the fluctuations in fundamental random variables. The quasi-fundamental equilibria are Pareto dominated by the corresponding constant-exchange-rate steady states. They also converge to these steady states, inevitably or with positive probability. Received: October 2, 1999; revised version: March 26, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This paper began as a joint project with Alex Mourmouras, who has made many helpful comments and suggestions but is not responsible for any errors or deficiencies. In addition, I thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments.     

The implicit welfare weights used when maximizing aggregate surplus

Aggregate consumer and producer surplus is a special type of social welfare function. In this paper, we investigate how individual welfare weights and how the social marginal utility of an increase in an individual's income behave if one uses aggregate surplus as a measure of social welfare. Our conclusion is that aggregate surplus is an ethically unacceptable measure of social welfare.I am grateful to B. De Borger and to an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper. Of course, all remaining errors are mine.     

Almost sure convergence to zero in stochastic growth models

This paper considers the resource constraint commonly used in stochastic one-sector growth models. Shocks are not required to be i.i.d. It is shown that any feasible path converges to zero exponentially fast almost surely under a certain condition. In the case of multiplicative shocks, the condition means that the shocks are sufficiently volatile. Convergence is faster the larger their volatility, and the smaller the maximum average product of capital.I would like to thank Santanu Roy, John Stachurski, Lars J. Olson, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. The general result in section 2 owes much to the referee’s comments on an earlier version of this paper. Financial support from the 21 Century COE Program at GSE and RIEB, Kobe University is gratefully acknowledged.     

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

Summary. In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy. Received June 7, 2001; revised version: January 7, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I would like to thank Mukul Majumdar and Thomas DiCiccio for helpful discussion and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions.     

A note on modelling tournaments

Existing studies on tournaments utilize different specifications of the production function. Comparison of these results is difficult. This paper shows that the strategic behavior of agents in a tournament can be analyzed more generally using a specification of the production function along the lines of the standard agency model. I also show that in mixed contests, the more able contestant would in equilibrium have a higher probability of winning the contest despite attempts to use effort to compensate for ability by the less able contestant (Proposition 3).The author would like to thank Joseph Stiglitz for suggesting the idea for this paper, Jerry Green for reading an earlier version of the paper, and three anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion and ambiguity aversion

Summary. This paper axiomatizes a form of recursive utility on consumption processes that permits a role for ambiguity as well as risk. The model has two prominent special cases: (i) the recursive model of risk preference due to Kreps and Porteus [18]; and (ii) an intertemporal version of multiple-priors utility due to Epstein and Schneider [8]. The generalization presented here permits a three-way separation of intertemporal substitution, risk aversion and ambiguity aversion.Received: 5 August 2003, Revised: 12 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D80, D81, D90.I am grateful to Larry Epstein for his guidance and invaluable advice, and to a referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Gender wage gap studies: consistency and decomposition

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the gender wage gap, with particular attention given to the identification of the key parameters in human capital wage regression models. This is of great importance in the literature for two main reasons. First, the main explanatory variables in the wage model, i.e., measures of work experience and time-out-of-work, are endogenous. As a result, applying traditional estimators may lead to inconsistent parameter estimates. Second, empirical evidence on the gender wage gap hinges on estimates of the parameters of interest. Accordingly, their economic meaning may be limited by restrictive assumptions included in wage models. This challenges both researchers and policymakers who require precise measures of the gender wage gap in order to create and enforce efficient equality policies. This paper is a substantially revised version of the first chapter of my thesis. I am grateful to Christian Dustmann and Wendy Carlin for their great support and comments. I also thank Bernd Fitzenberger, colleagues at the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration and IZA, and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

An efficiency characterization of plurality rule in collective choice problems

We consider the problem of selecting alternatives from a set of feasible alternatives over which each agent is endowed with a strict preference. We show that there is one and only one rule that satisfies anonymity, neutrality, efficiency, tops-only, and reinforcement. The rule is known as plurality rule, which selects the alternative(s) most preferred by the largest number of agents. I would like to thank William Thomson for helpful suggestions and discussions. I am grateful to Biung-Ghi Ju, Hyungjun Kim, and Yan-An Hwang for detailed comments. I am also indebted to the Editor and an anonymous referee for valuable suggestions. As usual, I am responsible for any remaining deficiency.     

Optimal introduction of Time-of-Day tariffs in the presence of consumer adjustment costs

I acknowledge valuable suggestions from Michael Rauscher on a first draft of the paper and the comments of two anonymous referees that proved very helpful when revising the paper.     

Real exchange rate determination: Empirical observations from East-Asian countries

In this paper the models for the real exchange rate determination are re-examined between Japan and five East-Asian countries. Two important findings are reported. First, the real interest rate-bias model is valid for Korea-, Malaysia-, Indonesia-, and Philippines-Japan, and the productivity-bias model is valid for Indonesia-, and Philippines-Japan: that is, the coefficients of relative variables are stable and statistically significant. Second, there is no evidence that the political risk premium model is valid. First version received: September 2000/Final version received: April 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  This paper was presented at the Tohoku University Economics Conference April 1999. I acknowledge Yoshihiko Tsukuda, Hiroya Akiba, Tadashi Kuriyama, Jiro Akita and Hiroyuki Ozaki for their helpful comments. Also, I am very grateful to two referees of this journal for many valuable comments. The research was supported by the Nomura foundation for Social Science in 2000.     

Financial development and economic growth in Australia: An empirical analysis

The paper empirically examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth in Australia in terms of bank-based and market-based financial structure. A time-series approach using the VAR Model is used to provide evidence for the dynamic relationship. The paper provides empirical evidence on the causal impact of the financial market on the economic growth of the Australian economy. The results suggest that financial intermediaries and financial markets have different impacts on economic growth given their diverse roles in the domestic economy. In particular there is evidence of causality from economic growth to the development of the financial intermediaries. On the other hand, development in the financial markets causes economic growth but there is no evidence of any causality from economic growth to financial markets. The sensitivity test using different interest rates does not change the results.I Jel classification: O16, G18, G28I We would like to thank Tilak Abeysinghe and Rajagurn Gunasekaran for their helpful comments on the first draft. Also, we would like to thank the Editor, Prof. Baldev Raj, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.First version received: October 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Equilibrium binding agreements under diverse behavioral assumptions

Summary. This paper extends the work of Ray and Vohra [3]. It ascertains which partitions of players will emerge and what actions will these players choose under each partition, when they can sign binding agreements and their actions have externalities. The emphasis, however, is placed on situations with multiple outcomes and how agents behave in the presence of such multiplicity. In particular, a deviating coalition considers all the likely outcomes that may prevail upon its deviation, and selects (if possible) a subset of them. Three augmentations of Ray and Vohra's [3] solution concept are defined, capturing three distinct behavioral assumptions. Efficiency of and the relation between the three notions are discussed. Received: October 9, 2001; revised version: April 22, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I wish to thank Licun Xue, Joseph Greenberg and the participants of PET 2000 for very helpful suggestions. I am indebted to an anonymous referee for his/her valuable comments. The paper has been previously circulated under the title Binding Agreements.     

Estimating a mixture of stochastic frontier regression models via the em algorithm: A multiproduct cost function application

Researchers have become increasingly interested in estimating mixtures of stochastic frontiers. Mester (1993), Caudill (1993), and Polachek and Yoon (1987), for example, estimate stochastic frontier models for different regimes, assuming sample separation information is given. Building on earlier work by Lee and Porter (1984), Douglas, Conway, and Ferrier (1995) estimate a stochastic frontier switching regression model in the presence of noisy sample separation information. The purpose of this paper is to extend earlier work by estimating a mixture of stochastic frontiers assuming no sample separation information. This case is more likely to occur in practice than even noisy sample separation information. In order to estimate a mixture of stochastic frontiers with no sample separation information, an EM algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates is developed. The algorithm is used to estimate a mixture of stochastic (cost) frontiers using data on U.S. savings and loans for the years 1986, 1987, and 1988. Statistical evidence is found supporting the existence of a mixture of stochastic frontiers. First version received: 3/13/01/Final version received: 6/17/02 RID="*" ID="*"  I am grateful to Ram Acharya, Janice Caudill, and especially James R. Barth for several helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. During the revision process I benefitted greatly from the suggestions of the Associate Editor and three anonymous referees.     

On the constancy of bribe-proof solutions

Summary. We consider the problem of choosing one point in a set of alternatives when monetary transfers are possible. In this context, Schummer (2000) shows that a social choice function must be a constant function if manipulation through bribes is ruled out. But he requires two kinds of domain-richness conditions. One is either smooth connectedness or the finiteness of the set of alternatives and the other is monotonical closedness. However, dispensing with the former condition, we alternatively prove the same result under a weaker condition than monotonical closedness. Received: April 11, 2000; revised version: February 25, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This paper received the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Moriguchi Prize in January 2001. I am grateful to Prof. Ryoichi Nagahisa, Prof. Tatsuyoshi Saijo, Prof. Ken-ichi Shimomura, Prof. Ken Urai, and especially two anonymous referees for their useful and helpful comments and suggestions. I am a Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.     

Is Kreps-Porteus utility distinguishable from intertemporal expected utility?

Summary In a Lucas (1978) model, with a Kreps-Porteus (1978) nonexpected utility, the following property of equilibrium holds generically in the space of finite-state, Markov output growth rate processes: equilibrium price of equity is distinct from that implied by any intertemporally additive expected utility satisfying specified regularity conditions. In that sense the more general utility functions are observationally distinguishable from the standard expected utility specification.I would like to thank Larry G. Epstein for posing to me the problem studied in this paper and for many suggestions and comments. I am also grateful to Darrell Duffie for helpful suggestions. I am responsible for errors. This papers is part of my Ph.D. thesis at University of Toronto.     

Implementing egalitarian-equivalent allocation of indivisible goods on restricted domains

Summary. We study the problem of allocating several units of homogeneous indivisible goods when monetary compensations are possible. First, we show that there is no strategy-proof, budget balanced, and egalitarian-equivalent mechanism even on extremely restricted preference domains. Next, we present two characterizations of strategy-proof and decision-efficient mechanisms that satisfy a stronger version of egalitarian-equivalence on preference domains bounded above. These characterizations tell us a trade-off between strategy-proofness and Pareto efficiency, and a relationship with strategy-proof and envy-free mechanisms. Finally, we prove that no egalitarian-equivalent mechanism is Nash implementable even on extremely restricted preference domains.Received: 22 April 2002, Revised: 17 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D63, D71, D82.I am very grateful to Naoki Yoshihara for useful discussions and suggestions that motivate me to study this subject. I would also like to thank Kotaro Suzumura, Koichi Tadenuma, Yoshikatsu Tatamitani, and the editor and two anonymous referees of this journal for helpful comments.     

Regulation of the iberoatlantic sardine fishery

The basic aim of this paper is to use a case study to illustrate the way in which controls can achieve an optimum exploitation of marine resources. The specific fishery under study is the Iberoatlanti sardine fishery. A bioeconomic deterministic model for this fish resource is developed and applied. The most relevant results and estimates are showed. Finally, we present some economic policy recommendations for the fishery, as well as considerations for the application of the regulatory measures.I thank M. C. Gallastegui for all his help. I also thank the anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Coalition-proof supply function equilibria under capacity constraints

Whereas in the absence of capacity constraints the Cournot outcome is the unique coalition-proof supply function equilibrium outcome, the presence of capacity constraints may enlarge the set of equilibrium outcomes. Interestingly, if capacities are sufficiently asymmetric the new equilibrium prices are below the Cournot price. These results have important implications for merger and privatization policies: specifically, capacity divestiture will not necessarily imply lower market prices.This article is based on the second chapter of my PhD dissertation. I benefited from the comments and suggestions of Diego Moreno and Bill Hogan. I thank three anonymous referees for helpful comments. Seminar audiences at Carlos III and Harvard are gratefully acknowledged. The author is currently a Repsol YPF fellow at the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government. I am grateful to the Repsol YPF-Harvard Fellowship Program for financial support.