Competition format,championship uncertainty and stadium attendance in European football – a small league perspective

To increase the number of regular season games, small football leagues are often organized as quadruple round robin tournaments with teams playing each other four times. Theoretically, however, the more games played, the less uncertain is the championship race, reducing fan interest in the league. This article uses data from Austria and Switzerland to study the relationship between competition format, championship uncertainty and attendance demand empirically. Results suggest that a team still in contention to win the championship positively affects attendance, while it is not the specificity of the competition format that per se contributes to less championship uncertainty.     

Bankruptcy in the pulp and paper industry: market’s reaction and prediction

This paper examines North American pulp and paper company bankruptcies that occurred between 1990 and 2009. We demonstrate that shareholders suffer substantial losses (37 %) during the month a bankruptcy occurs. Encouragingly, we show that financial ratios are useful in predicting firm failure and that failed firms are less profitable, more liquidity constrained and higher in debt leverage. Using a binary logit model in the spirit of Ohlson (J Acc Res, 19, 109–131, 1980), we predict financial distress for pulp and paper firms 1 to 2 years ahead of the bankruptcy. We also adapt and re-estimate the empirical model on a sample of pulp and paper firms and perform in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. For the out-of-sample analysis, our re-estimated Ohlson models correctly predict 93 % of bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy outcomes.     

Commercial loan borrower’s optimal borrowing and prepayment decisions under uncertainty

We model a firm which faces continuing stochastic money needs and fluctuating interest rates. The borrower minimizes the expected present value of the sum of interest payments and prepayment penalty costs subject to a liquidity constraint. Since contingent opportunities are absent from the model, we find (i) the firm should not inventory cash, (ii) the firm should prepay the maximum amount possible if it prepays at all.     

Firms’ investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty

We investigate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms’ planned and realized investment from a panel of manufacturing firms. Uncertainty measures are derived from firms’ own expectations about demand and prices and firm's sales. We find that demand uncertainty at the time of planning depresses planned and subsequent realized investment. Firms do not revise their plans due to demand uncertainty at the time of spending, suggesting that reducing demand uncertainty will only have lagged effects on investment. We do not find any effect of price uncertainty. Our results are consistent with the behaviour of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital.     

Financial Integration and EMU’s External Imbalances in a Two-Country OLG Model

The pronounced increase in external imbalances in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) during the years running up to 2008 is traditionally explained by financial integration through the common currency. This paper examines in a one-good, two-country overlapping generations’ model, with production, capital accumulation and public debt, the effects of financial integration on the net foreign asset positions of initially low-interest and high-interest rate EMU countries. We find that a lower savings rate and government expenditure quota, together with a higher capital production share in the latter can in fact be transformed into the observed external imbalances when interest rates converge.     

Fairness and intentionality in children’s decision-making

Few studies have addressed the role of different aspects of the Theory of Mind (ToM) (intentionality and false belief understanding) in decision-making by adults playing strategic games where the importance of fairness is crucial. Even more interesting, this topic has been less investigated with children. The goal of this research was to explore the development of the decisional behavior along with the understanding of fairness, intentions and first- and second-order false belief understanding in children who are just acquiring those abilities. Multiple rounds of the ultimatum game with a human and a non-human partner (child/roulette wheel) were played by 177 children in the age range of 5–10 years, who also completed classic false belief tasks. Results confirm the key role of fairness sensibility across age groups and different degrees of the relevance of ToM according to the variability of children’s decisional behavior (stable vs. dynamic).     

Is ‘no news’ really ‘good news’? Country visibility and FDI location choice

In choosing where to invest, firms seek out information on a set of possible locations. Information asymmetries may make country visibility particularly important in decisions to locate investment abroad. We develop a country visibility index based on international news stories in The Economist, and show that broad country visibility is at least as important in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) as other specific investment promotion activities or proxies for information frictions. Controlling for standard gravity model determinants of FDI, we find that greater visibility of developing countries, in particular lower middle- and low-income countries, increases the investment that they receive from US multinational corporations.     

Africa’s industrialization and China’s OFDI in the manufacturing sector: rationales and practices

The article examines the rationales and practices for three types of manufacturing outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) into Africa in the context of the cooperation between Africa’s industrialization and China’s OFDI on manufacturing. African economies have achieved impressive growth in the new century, but sustainable economic growth in this vast continent is still constrained by lagging industrialization and weak manufacturing sector. While China’s economy has made great achievements in Gross Domestic Product growth and poverty reduction, it witnessed hikes of factor price such as wage, land and exchange rate at varying degrees in the recent decade, imposing pressure on economic restructuring. Against the background, the new trend of Chinese manufacturing OFDI provides new opportunities for Africa to solve structural problems of weak manufacturing. Policy implications of this study on China–Africa industrial capacity cooperation are briefly discussed.     

Analysis of the Competition in China＇s Supermarket Sector

China＇s supermarket sector has been growing with a high rate for ten years. Relying on the advantages of new formats and adapting to the economic change of China, several China＇s supermarket companies have replaced the traditional department stores to become the leading player in retail industry of China. Although the interesting phenomenon shows that although these supermarket companies have the inherent problems of shortage of capital and weaknesses in management, their expansion is more emphasized on sizes and speeds. Being weak in management and over squeezing ,margin from suppliers that might lead their position to be vulnerable. Their market share is taken by different competitors, more notably by foreign giant retailers. Competition will become more fierce and complex. Merging, making joint ventures with foreign investors, expanding into chain and fuU-format retailer, hunting for skillful people would be the key strategic options to keep the sector＇s growth.     

Bendamustine-rituximab: a cost-utility analysis in first-line treatment of indolent non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in England and Wales

Objective:

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bendamustine-rituximab (B-R) compared with CHOP-R (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone, rituximab) and CVP-R (cyclophosphamide, vincristine, prednisone, rituximab) as first-line treatment for patients with advanced indolent non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL).

Methods:

A patient-level simulation was adapted from the model used by the University of Sheffield School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) in a health technology appraisal of rituximab for first-line treatment of follicular lymphoma. This approach allowed modelling of the complex treatment pathways in indolent NHL. Data from a Phase 3 randomized, open-label trial were used to compare B-R with CHOP-R. The relative efficacy of CHOP-R and CVP-R was estimated using an indirect treatment comparison similar to the original ScHARR approach. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the National Health Service in England and Wales, using a lifetime time horizon. A number of one-way sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted, including one using recently published data comparing CVP-R with CHOP-R.

Results:

The deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £5249 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) for B-R vs CHOP-R, and £8092 per QALY for B-R vs CVP-R. The alternative scenario using direct data comparing CVP-R with CHOP-R approximately halved the ICER for B-R vs CVP-R to £4733. Owing to its better toxicity profile, B-R reduced the cost of treating adverse events by over £1000 per patient vs CHOP-R.

Limitations:

The main limitations were: immaturity of overall survival data from the Phase 3 trial; reliance on quality-of-life data from previous health technology appraisals (as this was not collected in the trial); and a lack of direct evidence or a network of connected evidence comparing B-R with CVP-R.

Conclusions:

The ICERs for B-R vs CHOP-R and CVP-R were considerably below the thresholds normally regarded as cost-effective in England and Wales (£20,000–30,000 per QALY).     

Financial Deregulation and the Role of Statecraft: Lessons from Britain’s 1971 Competition and Credit Control Measures

Within the financialisation literature, a number of approaches identify the coexistence of financial expansion and productive stagnation. Yet there is no consensus on which direction causality operates between these two phenomena. This impasse has been widened by the lack of attention paid to the role of statecraft strategies in mediating possible causal mechanisms. This article contributes to rectifying this shortcoming by focusing on the governance advantages granted to states through financial deregulation. By presenting archival evidence on Britain’s 1971 Competition and Credit Control deregulation, this article lends support to financialisation accounts that argue that weaknesses in the productive economy spurred financial expansion, yet it also indicates that the state’s desire for depoliticised forms of governance played a crucial role in mediating this relationship. This further suggests that International Political Economy should focus on the strategic manner in which states relate to markets.     

Remittances and income diversification in Bolivia’s rural sector

This article examines the role of remittances in income diversification strategies in Bolivia’s rural sector. Remittances can be consumed or invested by the recipient. As an investment, funds can be used for farming or to finance other nonfarm productions. In this article, we use a large and nationally representative survey to estimate the effect that remittances have on the probability of producing income from nonfarm activities (diversification) by using a bivariate probit model. Our evidence shows that remittances increase the probability that a rural family engages in nonfarm activities, at least in some regions of Bolivia. We also find evidence that the sender’s decision to remit and the recipient’s decision to diversify may be jointly determined. As such, this suggests that remittances may serve as a mechanism to overcome localized failures in Bolivia’s capital markets.