基于特征价格与SVM的二手房价格评估

二手房价格的准确衡量一直是个永恒的话题。为了避免传统评估方法的不足,更加合理地预测二手房价格,引入特征价格理论和支持向量机理论(SVM),以杭州市西湖区内的二手房价格数据,构建价格评估模型,实证研究表明具有良好的评估效果。     

基于特征价格的城市交通对房价影响分析

因城市交通的改善能明显改变周边物业的可达性和用地性质,促进土地开发强度,带来周边房地产价值的上涨。因而文章从房地产市场中消费者的角度,讨论了城市交通成本的影响因素,在此基础上构建城市交通成本与房地产价格相互影响的特征价格模型,并从理论上对模型提出了验证方法,最后以重庆市的交通为例进行了实证分析。     

Estimation of hedonic price functions via additive nonparametric regression

We model a hedonic price function for housing as an additive nonparametric regression. Estimation is done via a backfitting procedure in combination with a local polynomial estimator. It avoids the pitfalls of an unrestricted nonparametric estimator, such as slow convergence rates and the curse of dimensionality. Bandwidths are chosen using a novel plug in method that minimizes the asymptotic mean average squared error (AMASE) of the regression. We compare our results to alternative parametric models and find evidence of the superiority of our nonparametric model. From an empirical perspective our study is interesting in that the effects on housing prices of a series of environmental characteristics are modeled in the regression. We find these characteristics to be important in the determination of housing prices.First version received: October 2002/Final version received: October 2003We thank B. Baltagi and two anonymous referees for their comments. The authors retain responsibility for any remaining errors.     

Estimating Recreation Preferences Using Hedonic Travel Cost and Random Utility Models

Over the last decade, several authors have questioned thevalidity of the hedonic travel cost model, arguing instead that the random utility model is a superior method forvaluing recreational site attributes. This paper demonstrates that the two methods emanate from a similar utilitytheoretic framework; yet in practice these methods differ in the assumptions made in their application.Constraining the underlying utility functions to be consistent, both models are applied to the valuation ofrecreational site attributes in the Southeastern United States. The way in which each method estimates preferencesfor site attributes is shown to depend critically on the method and the functional form of theunderlying utility function.     

北京市二手住宅价格影响机制——基于多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)的研究

文章基于多尺度地理加权回归研究北京市2011—2017年二手住宅交易的价格特征,结果表明:①以往基于经典地理加权回归模型的研究可能存在一定的不稳健,而多尺度地理加权回归可以将不同变量对于因变量的影响尺度反映出来,其回归的结果更为可靠。②北京房价对区位因素非常敏感,且存在高度的空间异质性,区位的影响尺度是所有变量中最小的,接近于街道尺度。而卧室数量和到最近地铁站的距离为全局尺度的变量,在空间上的影响较为平稳。到公交站的距离、到小学的距离、建筑结构和装修状况对于房价的影响不显著。其他显著的变量均存在一定的空间异质性,其空间尺度由小到大分别为成交时间、面积、楼龄、楼层、朝向。③区位、朝向、卧室数量、成交时间均正向影响房价,而面积、楼龄、楼层、到地铁站的距离负向影响房价。所有影响因素中区位是影响房价的最主要因素,其次是成交时间朝向。面积成交时间、朝向和到最近地铁站的距离影响较大,所在楼层、卧室数量对于房价的影响较小,而面积和楼龄的影响最弱。     

生态系统服务的价格估计方法及真实增长测度

以国际统计规范中生态系统服务价值的估价方法为基础,利用市场价值法、替代成本法、影子工程法等方法,构建生态系统服务核算的动态价格体系,对京津冀地区的生态系统服务价值进行合理测度。实证结果发现,以往采用的价格体系低估了生态系统服务价值,根据构建的动态价格体系得出,2016年北京市、天津市和河北省的生态系统服务价值总量分别为27706.27亿元、5836.21亿元和104407.23亿元,分别是各地区GDP的1.08倍、0.326倍和3.26倍;2016—2017年京津冀地区生态系统服务价值增量分别为502.63亿元、628.12亿元和-1713.33亿元;三个地区中价格因素对北京市生态系统服务价值年度变化的影响最大,而天津市和河北省受到价格因素的影响较小,剔除价格因素影响后京津冀地区生态系统服务价值的真实增长率分别为-0.15%、13.11%和-1.7%。     

双参考价格范围的价格判断试验研究

传统的价格判断模型考虑常规目标价格状态的判断,然而在不规范的市场中,商品良莠不齐,消费者常常面对超低的商品价格,按照传统的价格判断模型,消费者不会接受这种超低价,然而现实情况却不是如此。消费者为什么接受了怀疑的交易,面对超低价格,消费者如何判断价格的吸引力?笔者将对传统价格模型进行扩展,通过试验验证新的价格判断模型,用以解释以上问题。     

The Stability of Hedonic Coalition Structures

We consider the partitioning of a society into coalitions in purely hedonic settings, i.e., where each player's payoff is completely determined by the identity of other members of her coalition. We first discuss how hedonic and nonhedonic settings differ and some sufficient conditions for the existence of core stable coalition partitions in hedonic settings. We then focus on a weaker stability condition: individual stability, where no player can benefit from moving to another coalition while not hurting the members of that new coalition. We show that if coalitions can be ordered according to some characteristic over which players have single-peaked preferences, or where players have symmetric and additively separable preferences, then there exists an individually stable coalition partition. Examples show that without these conditions, individually stable coalition partitions may not exist. We also discuss some other stability concepts, and the incompatibility of stability with other normative properties. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C71, A14, D20.     

中印两国外资居民企业有效平均税率估测及分析

中印两国的税收制度对于外资的吸引发挥着至关重要的作用.潜在投资者选择投资项目主要考虑一国的有效平均税率是否具有吸引力.文章运用已被国际学术界广泛认可的D/G模型,利用安永会计师事务所提供的有关数据,从企业和股东两个层面分别估测了中印两国外资居民企业采用不同融资方式、投资于不同资产所承担的有效平均税率,并检验了上述结果对各种假设条件的敏感性.通过较为准确而全面地估测中印两国外资居民企业的有效平均税率,文章的研究结果将更直观地反映出两国外资居民企业的平均税负水平,并有利于判断我国税制对于吸引外资的相对优劣性.     

On Efficient Estimation and Correct Inference in Models with Generated Regressors: a General Approach

Two approaches have been developed for deriving the properties of efficiency and consistency of standard errors of two step estimators of linear models containing current or lagged unobserved expectations of a single variable. One method is based on the derivatives of the likelihood function and information matrix, while the other uses the true covariance matrix of the disturbance vector when unknown parameters or variables are replaced by corresponding estimates. In this paper, the second approach is extended to cases where the structural equation is nonlinear and the model contains expectations of more than one variable or expectations of future variables. The properties of a frequently used estimator to deal with missing observations problems, a model involving a variance as an explanatory variable, and a recently developed estimator for autoregressive moving average models can be easily derived using the results of the paper. Methods for improving the efficiency of two step estimators are outlined.
JEL Classification Number: C13     

World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

Hedonic Pricing of Agriculture and Forestry Externalities

In this study, the hedonic price method was used toidentify and monetarize some of the external effectsof agricultural and sylvicultural activities. Weexamined the renting price of ruralself-catering cottages, or gîtes. Intensivelivestock farming caused the renting-price ofgîtes to decrease, whereas permanent grassland hadthe opposite effect.     

报纸定价机制和定价策略的思考

报纸作为一种特殊的商品,在市场竞争环境下,既有符合一般商品的定价规律,也有其自身的特点。在市场竞争日益激烈的报业市场中,报纸涨价成为报业集团增加收入的一个有效途径,不同类型报纸有不同的价格特性,需要认真分析报纸涨价的可行性因素,依定价分析的实施步骤对其进行合理定价。     

Development of land valuation approach based on hedonic model--A case study of Vientiane capital city Laos

The aim of this study is to identify the variables affecting land value. Examined land was selected from the village in Vientiane capital city Laos. Data was collected from 100 villages in center of Vientiane capital city by using survey methods. A hedonic price analysis was conducted to determine the marginal return to different land characteristics using an econometric model corrected for correlation. Parcel characteristics such as distance to public park, village income, distance of population, number of the school within 500 meters buffer, distance to the temple, distance to the major market and distance to the business center （CBD）. Arc GIS 9.2 was applied to calculate the distance of the factors, after that SPSS 15.0 was used to calculate the land price characteristic based on hedonic price model. The results showed that the distance to the center of population was the main factor influencing to the land price, and followed by school and village income. Map of the land price before and after hedonic price analysis were produced. The land price valuation approaches based on hedonic price model for Vientiane capital city were developed and land price map were predicted. Hedonic price model and GIS were very useful for this research, and finally the policy of the land valuation based on GIS was developed.     

影子价格长短期划分及其计算

影子价格对资源配置具有重要的指导意义。但是影子价格的定义方式通常与短期生产相联系,而长期生产多资源要素的变化往往被忽视。区分生产短、长期,通过方向导数来确定长期生产资源调整的影子价格。     

广义变系数模型的B样条估计及R软件实现

结合基函数逼近技术以及拟似然方法,对广义变系数模型,提出了一个B样条估计方法,并结合R统计软件,对所提出的估计方法给出了一个基于R软件的实现过程。数据模拟表明所提出的B样条估计方法以及R软件的实现过程均是可行的。     

特征价格模型的发展应用研究

特征价格模型因为其完美的理论思想而成为国际上普遍使用的分析异质品价格和特征关系的主要方法.本文通过对国外核心期刊上一百五十二篇特征价格法相关文献的检阅,梳理了国内外特征价格模型及指数编制的研究现状,对特征价格模型的功能进行了总结性定位,认为特征价格模型的功能主要在于:异质品价格指数的编制,异质品价格预测、价值评估或产品定价,异质品价格影响因素分析,非市场因素的经济效应的检验及对传统经济学模型的改进五方面.文章最后以住宅为例,归纳总结了特征价格法在研究应用中存在的主要问题:一是市场细分;二是特征变量选择和量化;三是模型形式选择;四是模型估计方法的研究;五是指数编制中的问题.这些研究对象为未来特征价格的研究提供了可行参考.     

An economic estimate of the effect of a waterside location on property values

Since the rise of the railway, and the later development of road transport, the economic value of inland waterways in the UK as freight carriers has steadily declined. The reduction in the economic importance of canals has been somewhat offset by their growing popularity as a recreational resource, and by the amenity value which they provide to that part of the population living in close proximity to them. Focussing on two case study areas, this paper uses an hedonic price model to estimate the economic benefits which residents gain from a waterside location. These benefits may have important policy implications for those bodies who own undeveloped land bordering waterways.     

城市湖景对住宅价格的空间影响——以杭州西湖为例

城市湖泊具有重要的景观生态价值,对住宅价格的影响显著,一直受到国内外学者的关注。以杭州西湖为例,采用2011年杭州市6城区649个住宅小区的相关数据,建立传统特征价格模型,并从方向—距离异质性两个维度对模型进行改进,实证分析城市大型景观中心对住宅价格的空间影响差异。结果表明:①西湖对杭州市住宅价格具有显著的正向外部性效应,到西湖的距离每增加1%,住宅价格将下降0.226%。②西湖对住宅价格的影响存在显著的方向异质性,平均的空间影响范围为5.62km,但在不同方向上西湖的价格弹性呈现明显差异。③在以西湖为中心、同心圆状向四周扩散的过程中,住宅价格对西湖距离的空间敏感性呈现出先急剧减小后缓慢增大的趋势。