香港股市与内地股市的联动性研究

本文分3个阶段考察了香港回归以来,香港股市和内地股市之间的联动关系及其变化。协整分析表明,香港股市和内地股市之间存在长期的均衡关系,这种均衡关系在内地资本市场实行股权分置改革后更趋于稳定。Granger因果检验表明,香港回归以来香港股市和内地股市之间的引导关系在经历B股开放和股权分置改革后发生了变化。脉冲响应函数分析从动态的角度进一步验证了香港股市和内地股市之间的引导关系及其变化,并深入分析了单个变量的波动或冲击对其自身及另一变量的影响程度。     

What Causes Fraudulent Financial Reporting? Evidence Based on H Shares

This paper investigates fraudulent financial reporting (FFR) in the China-based companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (called H shares) in which Chinese government officials have a high degree of involvement and heavy impact on audit quality and corporate governance. It intends to find out the causes of FFR, the opportunities that make such reporting possible, and whether the presence of politically connected executives creates an environment that is conducive to FFR. The results show that the corporate environment most likely to lead to FFR is characterized by earnings management accounting practices.     

Hong Kong stock listing and the sensitivity of managerial compensation to firm performance in state-controlled Chinese firms

We compare the sensitivity of managerial cash compensation to firm performance, the level of long term managerial incentives, and the sensitivity of CEO turnover to firm performance for three types of state-controlled Chinese firms: A shares (firms incorporated and listed in mainland China), H shares (firms incorporated in mainland China but listed in Hong Kong), and Red Chip shares (firms incorporated outside mainland China and listed in Hong Kong). We find no difference in the three pay-for-performance sensitivity measures between H shares and A shares. The cash pay-for-performance sensitivity and the level of long-term managerial incentives are higher for Red Chip shares than for the other two firm types. However, the sensitivity of CEO turnover to firm performance is insignificant for all three firm types. Our study illustrates the complexity in the influence of mainland China’s versus Hong Kong’s institutional forces on state-controlled Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong.     

Causality and cointegration of stock markets among the United States,Japan and the South China Growth Triangle

This paper explores the causality and cointegration relationships among the stock markets of the United States, Japan and the South China Growth Triangle (SCGT) region. Applying the recently advanced unit root and cointegration techniques that allow for structural breaks over the sample period (October 2, 1992 to June 30, 1997), we find that there exists no cointegration among these markets except for that between Shanghai and Shenzhen. By invoking the Granger causality test and considering the non-synchronous trading problem, we will show that stock price changes in the US have more impact on SCGT markets than do those of Japan. More specifically, price changes in the US can be used to predict those of the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets on next day. Similarly, price changes on the Hong Kong stock market lead the Taiwan market by 1 day. Furthermore, the stock returns of the US and Hong Kong markets are found to be contemporaneous. Finally, there is a significant feedback relationship between the Shanghai and the Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.     

WEBS,SPDRs, and country funds: an analysis of international cointegration

Prior empirical studies analyzing linkages between international equity markets have suffered because suitable real-world financial instruments representing national equity markets were not available for trading. In March 1996, World Equity Benchmark Shares (WEBS) began trading on the American Stock Exchange. WEBS are open-end index funds that trade like closed-end index funds; they are designed to closely track the international indices developed by Morgan Stanley Capital International. This study utilizes WEBS along with Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDRs) to avoid the previously encountered problems associated with nonsynchronous trading, fluctuating foreign exchange rates, non-liquidity, trading restrictions, and index replication. Results indicate that substantial pairwise cointegration exists among the 18 market indices as well as between individual closed-end country funds and their own-country WEBS. In addition, Granger causality tests indicate the existence of short-term causal relationships, suggesting market inefficiencies and the possibility of short-run arbitrage opportunities.     

The effect of market segmentation on stock prices: The China syndrome

China has an A-share market that is open only to local investors and a B-share market that is open only to foreign investors. Contrary to what has been observed in other markets with a similar segmented structure, the China B shares trade at a discount relative to the A shares. We show that the phenomenon can still be explained by basic economic principles. Specifically, the existence of the H-share and the “red-chip” markets in Hong Kong provide good substitutes for the B-share market. We find that when more H shares and red chips are listed in Hong Kong, the B-share discount becomes larger. This is consistent with the model of differential demand elasticity proposed by Stulz and Wasserfallen (Stulz, R., Wasserfallen, W., 1995. Review of Financial Studies 8, 1019–1057).     

赵一弘 碧生源的“工匠”

赵一弘用了10年时间,仅凭借着碧生源旗下的2款主力产品,就创造了逾8亿元的年销售额,并将企业带到了香港联交所。从2000年北京房山区窦店镇一个仅1100平方米的厂房,到2010年登陆香港联交所主板,碧生源控股有限公司(以下简称为碧生源)董事长兼CEO赵一弘和创业团队经历了10年时间,在这10年里,除了产品外,他们专心做好了一件事情:在全中国范围内铺设了一个遍布近12万家零售终端     

Cross‐listings and dividend size and stability: evidence from China

We investigate the relationship between cross‐listings and dividend policy. We find that Chinese cross‐listed firms have lower and more stable dividends than their non‐cross‐listed peers, and that dividends become more stable the longer a company has been cross‐listed. We also find the strength of the cross‐listing/dividend policy relationship varies based on the market where the shares are cross‐listed. The strength of the relationship varies from B‐shares (least strong) to Hong Kong shares (stronger) to American Depository Receipts (strongest). Our results indicate cross‐listings may influence both dividend size and stability, and that this influence can vary by the type of cross‐listing.     

Red chips or H shares: which China-backed securities process information the fastest?

This study examines the information flow between China-backed securities, namely H shares, red chips, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed common shares. We document several findings. We find that an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (EGARCH-M) model appears to describe adequately the return process of the China-backed securities. Our empirical findings show that both H shares and red chips (which are listed in Hong Kong) are more sensitive to ‘good’ news than ‘bad’ news, while stocks listed in the China market are more sensitive to ‘bad’ news than ‘good’ news. Using a multivariate EGARCH-M model, we have found significant return and volatility spillover effects among the China-backed securities. Our study indicates that the red chips appear to spread information to other China-backed markets ‘directly’ or ‘indirectly’. The results imply that the red chip market processes information faster than the other markets.     

Do birds of the same feather flock together?: The case of the Chinese states equity markets

We examine the equity market price interdependence between China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan based on the [Journal of Econometrics 66 (1995) 225] causality test which we bootstrap with leveraged adjustments. A new information criterion is used to choose the optimal lag order. We cover the period January 1, 1993–September 10, 2001 taking into account the Asian financial crisis in 1997. We find that before the Asian crisis, the only interaction among the Chinese markets was between Singapore and the markets of Taiwan and Hong Kong with the causality running from the former to the latter. However, after the Asian crisis, the Chinese equity markets became more interdependent among themselves although Hong Kong remained non-influential.     

Long-run equilibrium, short-term adjustment, and spillover effects across Chinese segmented stock markets and the Hong Kong stock market

This paper adopts a novel FIVECM-BEKK GARCH approach to examine the bilateral relationships among the A-share and B-share stock markets in China and the Hong Kong stock market. The evidence shows that these stock markets are fractionally cointegrated. Analyses of the spillover effects across these markets indicate that the A-share markets are most influential. The relaxation of government restrictions on the purchase of B shares by domestic residents accelerates the market integration process of A-share markets with the B-share and Hong Kong markets. The effects of the Asian crisis on the stock-return dynamic correlations vary across these markets.     

Contrarian investment strategies work better for dually-traded stocks: Evidence from Hong Kong

We investigate the profitability of contrarian investment strategies for equities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), which are separated into cross-listed firms and firms listed only in Hong Kong. We also investigate the relationship between stock returns and past trading volume for these equities. We report significantly higher contrarian profits for the period investigated and find that this is a persistent feature of stock returns for cross-listed companies. We also document that contrarian portfolios earn returns as high as 8.01% per month for the dually-traded companies and just 1.83% for only HKEX-listed firms. We find that volume has only a limited ability to explain contrarian profits. All extreme profits disappeared after adjusting for the Fama and French three-factor model.     

INTERNATIONAL TRANSFER OF PRICING INFORMATION BETWEEN DUALLY LISTED STOCKS

International multiple listing offers a unique opportunity to study the efficiency of information transmission across national markets. The knowledge gained from observing a stock of the same company priced in multiple markets differs from what may be gained from observing relations across markets of aggregate price indices. We investigate five companies based in Israel whose stocks are listed on both the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. Our empirical tests of causality in price changes use the side-by-side Box-Jenkins ARIMA models and the Sims VAR model. Overall, the results show that price causality in dually listed stocks is unidirectional from the domestic market to the foreign market.     

The causal relationships between residential property prices and rentals in Hong Kong: 1982–1991

This study examines the causal relationships between sale price changes and rental rate changes in the Hong Kong real estate market. Three different hypotheses are put forth: 1) the demands in the two markets are substitutes, 2) prices and rentals are positively correlated; and 3) prices and rentals are not correlated because of market segmentation. Using quarterly data of sale prices and rental rates for the five categories of residential property from four different districts, causal relationships are not found in 29 cases out of 40. For the other 11 cases, we find that price changes lead rental rate changes. The lag period is found to be one quarter, and this shows that the two markets are efficient: only one quarterly lag is necessary to establish causality where it exists.     

The spillover effect of disclosure rules and materiality thresholds: Evidence from profit warnings issued in Hong Kong market

Dual-listed firms simultaneously follow the relevant rules in their home country and in their cross-listed country. In contrast, other firms only listed in the cross-listed country are only subject to the local regulations. Previous literature has found evidence that cross-listing can improve firms’ information transparency because of more stringent listing rules in the cross-listed country. The existing research, however, has not paid enough attention to the potential influence of dual-listed firms and their home country institutional factors (e.g. unique disclosure policies) on other firms only listed in the cross-listed country (i.e. spillover effect). In the Hong Kong market, Chinese dual-listed firms are under the mandatory profit warning regulation of mainland China, but other firms listed only in Hong Kong only need to follow the voluntary disclosure rule of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Such a setting provides us with the opportunity to investigate a spillover effect, i.e. whether these Chinese dual-listed firms influence their peers only listed in Hong Kong to release profit warnings. We find that firms only listed in Hong Kong are more likely to issue profit warnings if their Chinese dual-listed peers have also issued warnings. We further find that this spillover effect increases with the market capitalization of Chinese dual-listed firms and increases with the market share of these firms before they dominate the industry. Lastly, due to an underlying duty to disclose material information in Hong Kong, the spillover effect is weaker for firms with large earnings surprises.     

Disruption and stock markets: Evidence from Hong Kong

We examine the impact of disruption on stock markets using the 2019 Hong Kong protests for identification. We find that greater protest intensity corresponds to higher bid–ask spreads, lower trading volume, and greater return volatility for dual-listed Chinese firms’ Hong Kong (H) shares but not their home (A) shares. We also document negative abnormal returns only for these firms’ H-shares around major protest events, which shortly after exhibit reversal. Next, we validate our main findings by documenting similar results using Hong Kong-listed firms only. Overall, we provide new evidence highlighting the impact of protest-induced disruption on financial markets.     

Return spread and liquidity: Evidence from Hong Kong ADRs

Fifteen Chinese H-shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong are cross listed as ADRs on the NYSE. We empirically determine the role of security specific liquidity associated with those ADRs and their underlying H-shares on return spreads, differences between the returns on ADRs and their corresponding H-shares after controlling for ADRs and H-shares excess market returns and their respective price inverses denoting conditional betas. We use three proxies for liquidity, trading volume, turnover, and illiquidity (Amihud, 2002) and find that only trading volume and turnover are consistent determinants of return spread for the majority of Chinese ADRs with primary listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchange (SEHK). We use a switching regression model and find that the model parameter estimates are not stationary and change, often drastically between pre and post 2000 and 2003. Further tests using Bai Perron indicate return spreads data as non-stationary with multiple regime changes during the sample period. Further the causes of non-stationarity seem to be largely security specific and not driven by broad market swings in either market.     

上证所与港交所上市公司投资者关系管理的比较研究

对上海证券交易所和香港证券交易所上市的蓝筹公司的网站中与投资者关系有关的条目进行了调查统计分析,提出了用WBIRX指数来衡量上市公司基于网站的投资者关系工作的发展水平。通过对WBIRX指数和调查数据进行分析发现,尽管上交所蓝筹公司在网站投资者关系建设方面取得了长足的进步,但是在总体水平上还与港交所蓝筹公司有一定差距,同网站投资者关系有关的栏目数量、类别和质量都还有待提高。     

Shareholding structure and corporate performance of partially privatized firms: Evidence from listed Chinese companies

Equity ownership in a listed Chinese firm can have as many as five different classes: state-owned shares, legal-person (LP) shares, tradable A-shares, employee shares, and shares only available to foreign investors, a phenomenon that is unique to the Chinese equity market. In this paper, we investigate whether and how the corporate performance of listed Chinese firms is affected by their shareholding structure. The sample consists of all firms listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE) from 1991 to 1996. It is found that firm performance is positively related to the proportion of LP shares but negatively related to the proportion of shares owned by the state. Additional analyses indicate that firm performance increases with the degree of relative dominance of LP shares over state shares. Moreover, for the subsample of firms that do not have both state and LP shares, the return on equity (ROE) of firms with LP shares but no state shares is higher than that of firms with state shares but no LP shares by 3.84%, and this difference is statistically significant. On the other hand, there is little evidence in support of a positive correlation between corporate performance and the proportion of tradable shares owned by either domestic or foreign investors. These findings suggest that the ownership structure composition and relative dominance by various classes of shareholders can affect the performance of state-owned enterprise (SOE)-transformed and listed firms.     

公司特征、股权结构与股票流动性

股票流动性是金融市场微观结构的核心议题,其影响因素问题受到了人们的广泛关注。然而,以往的研究存在两个方面的重要缺陷:一是多数研究仅关注了股权结构对股票流动性的影响,而忽略了公司特征因素的作用;二是以往股权结构视角的研究由于存在研究设计上的问题,使得实证结论的可靠性不高。本文使用2003-2009年沪深两市仅发行了A股的上市公司为样本,采用高频交易数据构造买卖价差以衡量股票流动性,考察了公司特征、股权结构与股票流动性之间的关系,以及股权分置改革对这一关系的影响,得到了与以往研究不同的实证结论。针对这些结论,本文给出了符合我国制度背景的理论阐释。