利率对我国股市的影响——基于上证综指和深圳成指的实证研究

从理论和实证两方面研究全国银行间同业拆借利率对上证综指和深圳成指的影响,结果表明,利率对沪深两市的负相关变动趋势影响不够显著,原因在于我国利率还没有完全市场化、股票市场效率不高、股票市场投机氛围大于投资氛围。为促进我国股市的健康发展,政府要推进利率市场化改革,减少对人民币的管制,使人民币汇率真正市场化,央行应适时把市场利率作为我国货币政策中介目标,从而有助于实现货币政策的最终目标。     

Price Discovery for Segmented US-Listed Chinese Stocks: Location or Market Quality?

Abstract:  This study extends the cross-listing literature by examining how, and to what extent, the trading of cross-listed China-backed ADRs on the New York Stock Exchange contributes to information flows and price discovery for the corresponding stocks traded in China's A-share market. We find that the cross-listed US prices and Chinese prices are not cointegrated in the long-run and the home market plays a far more important role in both price discovery and volatility spillover than does the US market. The home bias hypothesis still holds for the segmented Chinese A-share market and the location where price discovery actually originates is the essential factor in the process of international information transmission.     

汇丰银行经营及治理研究

在开放经济中,国有商业银行改革发展战略的制定与实施需要更为广阔的观察视野和国际化的参考借鉴.本文梳理了汇丰银行发展沿革历程和1993～2002年共10年的经营及财务数据,分析了秉持"环球金融、地方智慧"经营方针的汇丰银行独特的全球化经营、资本运作、跨国并购的企业发展路径,研究了该行主动灵活的资产运作和结构调整策略,探讨了该行10年中资产、负债及收益结构变动的基本趋势,以及以股东利益为核心的财务结构安排,并进一步讨论了该行稳健、激励与约束相辅相成的治理和内控体系,旨在为锐意改革、争取卓越的国有商业银行提供参考.     

内地银行赴港上市后面临的法律风险及其防范措施

内地银行到香港上市将面临新的法律风险。包括商业银行及其员工的违法行为、商业银行经营管理不善以及内地法律政策变化带来的风险。商业银行作为第一责任者应深入学习香港法律和内地法律,提高法律意识;完善公司治理机制和内控机制,强化董事会职能,合法合规经营,防止内幕交易和违规关联交易,防止出现大案要案;制定详细的信息披露制度并严格执行;高度重视投资者关系管理工作等。国家也有责任为商业银行防范法律风险提供环境和政策支持,包括主要以法律手段管理经济;以规范、统一的方式发布政策;提供相应的政策支持,如减轻税负、开展综合经营试点、实施员工激励计划等。     

内地银行赴港上市后面临的法律风险及其防范措施

内地银行到香港上市将面临新的法律风险。包括商业银行及其员工的违法行为、商业银行经营管理不善以及内地法律政策变化带来的风险。商业银行作为第一责任者应深入学习香港法律和内地法律，提高法律意识；完善公司治理机制和内控机制，强化董事会职能，合法合规经营，防止内幕交易和违规关联交易，防止出现大案要案；制定详细的信息披露制度并严格执行；高度重视投资者关系管理工作等。国家也有责任为商业银行防范法律风险提供环境和政策支持，包括主要以法律手段管理经济；以规范、统一的方式发布政策；提供相应的政策支持，如减轻税负、开展综合经营试点、实施员工激励计划等。     

外资银行在华扩张态势与绩效比较——以外资银行在深圳市场的发展为例

2006年末入世过渡期结束,外资银行在中国的扩张与竞争日益深化,不同来源外资银行的经营绩效也出现了明显分化,这一现象以深圳尤为突出。本文首先考察和分析了中国银行业的开放历程及外资银行在华扩张和竞争态势。在此基础上利用企业竞争战略理论深入剖析了港资银行和其他外资银行在深圳市场上经营绩效存在显著差异的原因,具体包括:(1)当地政策环境的变化促使竞争主体调整战略从而带来绩效差异;(2)不同的市场细分和目标客户定位是导致经营绩效差异的关键;(3)业务范围不同直接造成经营绩效分化。本文结论:为实现持续成长,银行必须借助蓝海战略来实现自身价值与顾客价值的双重创新。     

Market Structure and Return Volatility: Evidence from the Hong Kong Stock Market

There is no consensus about the cause for higher volatility at the market open than at the market close in the U.S. market. As an order–driven, nonspecialist market, the Hong Kong stock market provides a useful setting for an examination. If halt of trade were the major cause of higher open–to–open volatility, the open–to–open volatility in the Hong Kong market would be higher. However, this is not observed. The autocorrelation of the open–to–open return series also indicates that the temporary price deviation at the market opening is not significant. We view these findings as consistent with the specialist argument.     

资本市场对外开放与股价异质性波动——来自“沪港通”的经验证据

本文基于“沪港通”这一外生政策,探讨了资本市场对外开放对股价异质性波动的影响机理。研究发现:“沪港通”实施能够降低“沪股通”标的股票股价的异质性波动,且在“沪股通”活跃成交股样本中更为明显;深入研究发现“沪港通”通过促使企业提高信息披露质量,从而降低股价异质性波动。本文研究表明“沪港通”实施对于维护我国资本市场稳定健康发展具有重要作用,亦为后续资本市场对外开放政策提供了一定的经验借鉴。     

十年来香港地区与大陆之间贸易与资本流动的结构性变化——基于国际收支框架的分析

近10年来,香港地区与大陆均经历了若干重大的内部变化与外部冲击,香港与大陆之间也签订了一系列CEPA协议。这些内部变化、外部冲击与制度性安排必将对两地之间的贸易与资本流动产生重大影响。本文从国际收支表框架出发,系统梳理了近10年来两地之间在商品贸易、服务贸易、FDI与证券投资等方面的资金流动趋势,并利用余额法估算了两地之间的其他跨境资本流动。结果表明,两地之间的贸易和投资在规模增长的同时也发生了一些显著的结构性变化,而其他跨境资本流动的变化则反映了两地之间可套利机会的变化。     

套利限制会加剧A-H股定价偏差吗?

本文从资产交易面临的直接约束视角,对套利限制与A-H股定价偏差之间的关系进行分析。以A-H股交叉上市公司为样本,研究发现:(1)套利限制会显著加剧A-H股定价偏差;(2)机构持股比例较高的公司和沪(深)港通开通之后的时间段,套利限制引起的定价偏差边际效应显著降低;(3)相比于制度性限制因子,机构持股和沪(深)港通开通能够更显著降低市场性限制因子对A-H股定价偏差的影响。结果表明,机构投资者的成长、互联互通政策有助于降低市场性限制,从而提高资本市场定价效率,但仍受到内地资本市场既有交易制度设计的约束。     

The effect of market segmentation on stock prices: The China syndrome

China has an A-share market that is open only to local investors and a B-share market that is open only to foreign investors. Contrary to what has been observed in other markets with a similar segmented structure, the China B shares trade at a discount relative to the A shares. We show that the phenomenon can still be explained by basic economic principles. Specifically, the existence of the H-share and the “red-chip” markets in Hong Kong provide good substitutes for the B-share market. We find that when more H shares and red chips are listed in Hong Kong, the B-share discount becomes larger. This is consistent with the model of differential demand elasticity proposed by Stulz and Wasserfallen (Stulz, R., Wasserfallen, W., 1995. Review of Financial Studies 8, 1019–1057).     

Does consideration matter to China’s split share structure reform?

We investigate the share market response to China’s split share structure reform and find average negative daily return around the government announcement on 29 April 2005. However, there is a turnaround at individual companies’ decision to implement the reform where we find positive and significant average daily return, contingent on the type of consideration. We attribute this change in market sentiment to the company’s announcement that the reform will involve the payment of consideration to holders of tradable A‐shares. Our results also show that holders of tradable A‐shares earn significant abnormal daily returns when companies propose to pay in cash or warrants or combine any of these payment methods with bonus shares.     

中国A、B股市场关联性的实证分析

利用市值加权法分别编制相应的A、B股市场指数，在此基础上利用多种经济计量模型对A、B股市场关联性进行多角度、分阶段的实证分析，以期得到B股开放前后两市关联性的结论。上述研究可以对A、B股的内在关联性有一个更准确的判断，为管理层在决策上提供相应的依据。     

Stock Returns and Volatility under Market Segmentation: The Case of Chinese A and B Shares

In most countries where firms list separate shares for trading by foreign and domestic investors, the prices of the foreign shares tend to be higher. In China, the reverse tends to be true. In this paper, we would like to focus on the information content in lagged premiums of Chinese A over B traded shares. The lagged premiums are found to have certain predictive power over the future returns and volatility of both A and B shares, with some interesting patterns. Specifically, an increase in the premium ratio of A shares will be followed by a rise in the return of A shares and a fall in the return of B shares. It is found that both of the investors in Chinese A- and B-share markets reveal positive feedback trading behavior. Moreover, the liquidity and information availability will affect the magnitude of such behavior especially in B-share markets. By using multivariate GARCH model, it is also demonstrated that the unexpected changes in the premium ratio of A-share price over B-share price contribute to the return volatility of both A shares and B shares. These patterns may provide foundations for the development of pricing models for equity shares under market segmentation.