MODELLING THE TRANSITION TOWARDS THE RENMINBI'S FULL CONVERTIBILITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA'S GROWTH

There is a widespread consensus that China needs to rebalance its export‐driven growth paradigm towards a more consumption‐based one and that such process is to be accompanied by the transition towards the renminbi's full convertibility. However, the Chinese authorities have so far acted with great caution because this transition cannot but accelerate the slowdown of China's growth which will likely occur because of other structural factors. We address these issues by means of a two‐country two‐stage (before and after the renminbi's full convertibility) model, which reproduces some qualitative features of China's growth pattern and its relationship with the United States. We analyse the extent to which altering the Chinese exchange rate regime, as well as other policies affecting sensitive social and economic issues, may impact on the short‐, medium‐ and long‐term evolution of the Chinese economy. The paper shows that by lifting the controls on the capital account and letting the currency float, the Chinese authorities will renounce those policy instruments for controlling the allocation of the national resources and the dynamics of China's economy.     

Recent developments in EC USSR commercial and economic relations

Conclusion Trade with the Soviet Union represents only a small part of total Community trade (3.5 % of EC imports and 2.7 % of EC exports in 1990). EC imports from the Soviet Union increased moderately between 1989 and 1990 as well as between the first six months of 1990 and the corresponding period of 1991, whilst EC exports decreased sharply as a result of hard currency shortage in the Soviet Union.The CMEA and Soviet disintegration processes will lead to a substantial reorientation of trade flows. This development has already begun with large increases of trade between the EC and the Central and Eastern European countries.International assistance to the USSR mainly consists of export credits. Community assistance involves a large proportion of grants and technical assistance. The cost of assistance measures envisaged so far remains limited for Western countries.The economic effects of assistance would be enhanced if effective coordination was implemented among the providers. Adequate mechanisms such as triangular operations or the untying of assistance would be required in order to avoid crowding out traditional suppliers from Soviet markets.     

CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITY AND LINKAGE BETWEEN CHINESE OFFICIAL AND SWAP MARKET EXCHANGE RATES

This article investigates the impact of currency convertibility under the current account on the informational linkage between official and swap market exchange rates for Chinese currency (renminbi). Findings indicate that currency convertibility increased the informational connection between the government's official exchange rate and the swap market exchange rate, exclusively traded by foreign investors, and thus improved the information content of renminbi exchange rates. Moreover, the results also suggest that more complete currency convertibility was needed for more informed renminbi exchange rates.     

Labour market institutions and labour market performance

This paper studies the relationship between labour market institutions and policies and labour market performance using a new and unique dataset that covers the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which in the last two decades experienced radical economic and institutional transformations. We document a clear trend towards liberalization of labour markets, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also substantial differences across the countries studied. Our econometric analysis implies that institutions matter for labour market outcomes, and that deregulation of labour markets improves their performance. The analysis also suggests several significant interactions between different institutions, which are in line with the idea of beneficial effects of reform complementarity and broad reform packages.     

从中苏改革比较看我国改革开放30周年

中国和苏联在社会主义发展历程中都曾为加快社会进步不断探索,但苏联在改革途中逐渐偏离并抛弃马克思主义,最终走上绝路,而我国自1978年开始的改革开放却逐渐探索出中国特色的社会主义发展模式,中国之路越走越宽广。正确认识中苏改革的异同,科学评价中苏两国的改革,对未来社会发展的认知具有重要参照价值。     

人民币贸易结算的影响因素 ——基于大国博弈视角的一般均衡分析

本文利用一个三部门（两个贸易部门、一个非贸易部门）的静态一般均衡模型，分别在名义工资黏性与实际工资黏性条件下分析货币供给冲击对贸易大国之间结算货币选择造成的影响。结论认为，出口商品结构、国内市场销售厂商占本国市场份额与同部门出口商占进口国市场份额的比值（市场份额比率）以及由汇率波动所引起的两国货币交易成本差额的变化对贸易大国之间结算货币选择策略具有决定性作用。为进一步推动人民币贸易结算的发展，中国与美国、欧盟和日本的进口交易可在产业内贸易模式下选取价格替代弹性较大、市场份额比率较高的产品作为推动人民币贸易结算的重点目标，同时应尽快提升人民币的可兑换性和流通能力，并尽量保持币值稳定以降低人民币对其他主要国际货币的交易成本。     

国际贸易结算币种内生选择机制研究——兼论人民币国际结算前景

本文从出口商期望利润最大化视角出发,梳理出一个国际贸易结算币种选择的微观分析框架。研究结果表明,在满足政治经济稳定性、货币的可兑换性、外汇市场的发达程度等前提条件下,需求价格弹性大小、汇率的波动性是影响结算币种选择的关键因素。     

The impact of the Soviet trade shock on central and East European economies

The paper examines the significance of what is called the Soviet trade shock on central and East European economies. The analysis involves two steps: first, the terms-of-trade effect of replacing the CMEA trading rules by market rules is estimated, and second, the impact of the loss of export markets in the former Soviet Union is assessed. The results of estimating the terms-of-trade effect for Hungary and Poland show that the income losses in 1990–1991 have not been as substantial as commonly believed (3.5 percent of GDP and 1.0 percent of GDP, respectively). The decomposition of the fall of total Soviet imports in 1991 into three categories, reflecting the impact of domestic recession, reduction of trade with ex-CMEA, and diversion of imports from ex-CMEA to western countries allowed us to estimate the CMEA-induced part of the trade collapse at 36 to 49 percent of the total fall of exports to the Soviet Union by the CEECs (except Romania), with the impact of domestic recession being in all cases stronger than the CMEA dissolution effect. An attempt has also been made to estimate the impact of the Soviet trade shock on GDP levels in CEECs. The results obtained indicate that the collapse of exports to the Soviet Union in 1991 may have been responsible for about one third of the officially reported GDP fall in Czechoslovakia and Poland, and for more than half of the GDP fall in Bulgaria and Hungary, but the impact of the CMEA-induced export fall was much smaller. The impact of the Soviet trade shock on Romania was negligible. The results obtained suggest a smaller impact of the Soviet trade shock on Hungary and Poland, as compared with some other studies. The conclusions should, however, be treated with caution, because of many untested assumptions underlying the analysis.I would like to acknowledge helpful comments received on earlier drafts of the paper by Daniel Gross, Dieter Hesse, Gabor Oblath, and Mica Panic. The views expressed in the paper are, however, my own responsibility.     

SOVIET INCENTIVES IN ARMS CONTROL

Much conventional wisdom supports the argument that growing economic problems in the Soviet Union will tend to enhance Soviet willingness to make concessions at the arms control bargaining table. This position is plausible. Equally plausible, however, is the opposite view: as a means of protecting its political power at home, the Soviet leadership could be led by falling living standards to emphasize the growth and importance of external threats. This would be inconsistent with a Soviet desire for arms control as conventionally defined. Economic problems in the Soviet Union are not new, and the Soviet approach to past arms control negotiations does not offer evidence in support of the conventional view.     

Will the Renminbi become a reserve currency?

In recent years, the authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have made great efforts to internationalize its currency. Will Renminbi (RMB) finally become a reserve currency? This paper addresses the above question from an institutional analytical framework. We find that if only economic fundamentals are used in the prediction, the expected share of the RMB in global currency reserves could reach 10% at the end of 2011. However, if institutional variables are included, the predicted share comes down to around 2%, which is a more realistic prediction. The work then proposes reform actions in developing China’s institutional environment so as to facilitate the RMB to realize the 10% potential. In general, we believe that the RMB’s international role should increase in the coming years, but it will take a relatively long period before it plays the role of a global reserve currency.     

Monetary union or currency competition? Currency arrangements for monetary stability in East and West

Recent events in the European Monetary System on the one hand and monetary disintegration in the former Soviet Union on the other hand have revived interest in the question of how to design and choose a monetary regime for both parts of Europe that ensures monetary stability. The objective of monetary stability can be achieved either by complete monetary union or by currency competition. Building on Hayek's ideas, I argue that both regimes are viable solutions depending on the circumstances. The paper first focuses on the misperceived benefits of flexible exchange rates, making the case for monetary union in Western Europe. However, monetary union is no alternative for Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Instead currency competition could be used to retain the benefits of flexible exchange rates and to foster monetary stability at the same time.     

Macroeconomic Consequences of the EMU

European Monetary Union was sold to the German public on the claim that the common currency would make the European economy stronger and that this would yield significant welfare gains. Such claims are commonly based on three propositions. (1) The common currency will be a strong international currency and the real appreciation of the euro against other currencies will make the EMU citizens richer. (2) The common currency will change labor market relations and increase labor market flexibility, and this will reduce the high rate of structural unemployment in Europe. (3) The common currency will create competition among the governments in the dimension of regulatory and tax policies and induce governments to undertake structural reforms which are long overdue, and this will set the EMU economy on a higher growth path.In this paper we discuss these three claims. We agree with the basic ideas of each of them. But the suggested result of a stronger EMU economy remains questionable. The euro may lead to more or to less labor market inflexibility, and competition among governments in the EMU has a high and a low-regulation equilibrium. Where the euro takes the European economy depends largely on the political willingness to engage in reforms.     

Monetary integration in the ex‐Soviet Union: A ‘union of four’?*

The governments of four ex‐Soviet countries recently discussed forming a currency union. To examine the economic feasibility of this proposition, we use conventional techniques and show that the arrangement is likely to find it difficult to handle the lack of structural symmetry, the asymmetric pattern of shocks, and the lack of market flexibility among the potential participants. Moreover, the union would be a unilateral one. It would require an unusual degree of political commitment to survive. Nonetheless, there are some subtleties in the timing and pattern of mutual dependence between Russia and Kazakhstan, and to a lesser extent in Belarus, which may reduce the strain from a currency union in those countries. Otherwise, the black market will have to provide the necessary market flexibility.     

苏联剧变20年后的再思考

在苏联剧变已经20年之后,结合中国30多年实行改革开放政策以来的状况,应进一步深入研究苏联剧变的原因及我国应吸取的教训。对苏联剧变的根本性原因,研究者们至今存在不同看法,因此得出教训自然也不同。文章分析了产生不同观点的深层次因素,并在此基础上思考了当今中国应吸取什么重要教训。     

Market power and hot air in international emissions trading: the impacts of US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol

Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992 the industrialized world is finally likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which will impose legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions on the developed world. However, the Kyoto Protocol will enter into force without the USA, which withdrew under President Bush in March 2001. Accounting for hot air and market power of the Former Soviet Union on emission permit markets, it is shown that US withdrawal has important consequences on environmental effectiveness, compliance costs, and excess costs of market power under the Kyoto Protocol. Non-compliance of the USA implies a dramatic decrease in environmental effectiveness as well as compliance costs of OECD countries whereas the Former Soviet Union and transitional economies in Eastern Europe suffer from a huge decline in permit sales revenues. Excess costs of market power in permit trade increase in relative terms, but decline substantially in absolute terms due to US withdrawal. Policy options are quantified to bypass the problems of hot air and market power through compensation mechanisms.     

基于商业银行微观视角的跨境人民币业务创新

自人民币国际化进程启动以来,跨境人民币业务发展迅速,业务规模呈现爆发式增长。根据十二五规划纲要,未来五年我国将逐步实现人民币资本项目可兑换,稳步推进利率市场化改革,完善有管理的浮动汇率制度。作为跨境人民币业务的重要推动力量,我国商业银行在人民币国际化进程中起到了重要的作用,但仍然是一项全新的业务,机遇与挑战并存。本文从商业银行的角度,在分析跨境人民币业务创新现状和意义的同时,指出该项业务创新面临多方面的挑战,要取得突破,应进一步明确跨境人民币业务的发展方向、提高资产负债管理和风险管理水平、加快系统建设并加强人才储备。     

Neoliberalism and Class Reproduction in India: The Political Economy of Privatisation in the Mineral Sector in the Indian State of Orissa

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed a process of integration of the Indian Union within the new international economic order, characterised by the ascendance of neoliberalism. Orissa, historically one of the Indian states mostly affected by severe poverty and economic stagnation though richly endowed with natural resources, has enthusiastically endorsed the neo-liberal project, implementing all the relevant national policies related to it. In the last 15 years, while the economic policy of the State of Orissa has been thus increasingly shaped according to the neoliberal guidelines recommended by the Centre, the disturbing socio-economic scenario of the State has not changed significantly. This paper aims to highlight how specific power relations in the State of Orissa are reproducing themselves in the course of the transition of the Indian Union towards the neoliberal order. This paper aims to consider as an example of this process the privatisation policies in the mining sector, namely the main economic sector of Orissa. Moving from the fundamental role historically played by Orissa within the Indian Union as a supplier of raw materials to the pan-Indian market, the paper intends to highlight the rentier character of the Orissan dominant class, traditionally capable of performing a basic intermediary function in the provision of raw materials to the Indian market. Once taken into account the socio-economic role historically played by the local dominant class in Orissa within the context of the wider capitalist dynamics at work at the all-Indian level, the paper will focus on the scenario which came into being since the start of the neoliberal economic reforms in 1991. The major shifts in the mineral policy at the central level since 1991 will be taken into account and, within this context, the implementation of privatisation policy in the mineral sector in Orissa will be analysed, with special reference its socio-economic implications. The paper aims to highlight the way in which the State of Orissa has broadened its traditional role, becoming an important supplier of raw material not only to the all-Indian market, but to the international market in general. It will be argued as well that, in continuity with the past, the intermediary function of the local dominant class in this process has remained fundamental. Therefore the paper aims to argue that the current scenario supports the proposition that the unfolding of neoliberal dynamics in Orissa opened the way for the creation of new spaces of social reproduction for the local dominant class and, with them, for the reproduction of old relations of power and social domination in the State.     

新自由主义思潮的全球化历程及其影响

新自由主义思潮在向全球扩张蔓延的过程中,对拉美、东欧和前苏联国家产生了巨大而深刻的影响。对新自由主义的危害,正处于改革发展关键阶段的中国应有清醒而足够的认识。     

Foreign currency debt, risk premia and macroeconomic volatility

This paper studies the relationships between foreign currency debt, macroeconomic volatility, and risk premia in a model of a small open emerging market economy. The external value of the local currency is counter-cyclical, so that foreign currency debt requires larger repayments than local currency debt in bad states of nature. The level of foreign currency-denominated debts, therefore, affects the volatility of aggregate demand and by extension of the exchange rate. Exchange rate volatility is in turn an important determinant of the risk premium on local currency debt. Finally, this risk premium is a major factor in the choice of local versus foreign currency for emerging market borrowers. The mutual endogeneity of foreign currency debt, risk premia, and macroeconomic volatility creates important feedback effects in the economy: small increases in international risk aversion may entail large amplification effects on macroeconomic volatility since domestic borrowers substitute towards cheaper but riskier foreign currency debt finance.     

Tests of microeconomic foundations of a North American common currency area

Abstract.  The movement of some members of the European Union towards a common currency area is likely to spark interest in other possible common currency areas. One such area of interest is a North American common currency area. In this paper some results from tests of microeconomic foundations of a North American common currency area are presented. These results can be viewed as favourable for the formation of a North American common currency area. JEL classification: F33, F36