Is there a Laffer curve between aggregate output and public sector employment?

This paper develops a model of the relationship between public sector employment, total output and aggregate real demand in market prices, where public employment has a positive productivity effect on private output. Public employment crowds out private employment and output because its increase induces higher wages and taxes. The valuation of government output is also taken into account. While public employment affects total output and aggregate real demand in an a priori ambiguous way, numerical simulations suggest that the relationship may be nonlinear; positive, when public sector is “small” and negative, when it is “large”. Using the annual data from 22 OECD countries over the period 1960–1996 and estimating and testing for threshold models and more commonly used specifications with multiplicative interaction terms give support to this nonlinearity hypothesis between public employment and private sector output. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000     

Efficiency and productivity in the Indian unorganized manufacturing sector: did reforms matter?

This paper analyzes total factor productivity growth of the unorganized manufacturing sector in India using several rounds of the large scale national sample survey state level data for 15 major Indian states for the period 1978–1979 to 2000–2001. Data envelopment analysis is used to compute Malmquist total factor productivity index and its components. The impact of economic reforms on efficiency and productivity is examined. Evidence suggests that total factor productivity registered a positive growth during the period in the country as a whole. Most states in the country witnessed higher total factor productivity growth in the post 1990s reforms period than in the pre-reforms period. Decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index shows that improvement in technical efficiency rather than technical progress had contributed to the observed acceleration in the growth rate. Econometric analysis of the determinants of total factor productivity growth demonstrates that ownership, literacy, farm growth and infrastructure availability significantly influence total factor productivity growth in the sector.

Is big better? On scale and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector

The ‘big is better’ idea has recently been challenged in network industries. Scale economies are considered finite so that for the individual utility an optimal scale of operations arises. A similar observation yields for scope economies as joint production is not predicted univocally anymore. In the water sector, scale economies and joint production are preferred. Nevertheless, several countries are restructuring the sector in order to improve the scale and scope of operations. This article intends to provide some insights into this matter. We analyze the Portuguese water market structure using non-parametric techniques with data from the year 2005. After surveying the literature on scale and scope economies, we discuss the peculiarities of the Portuguese water sector. The paper confirms the natural monopoly features. Although scope economies are absent, it highlights scale economies. The optimal scale of the utilities is located between 160,000 and 180,000 inhabitants. As such, the Portuguese water sector optimally counts 60 water utilities.     

Does public‐sector employment fully crowd out private‐sector employment?

Employment matters for development because it can raise household income, lower inequality, promote economic growth, and contribute to political stability. Many countries have high rates of public employment, but what effect does this have on overall employment and unemployment rates? This paper investigates if and to what extent public‐sector employment crowds out (reduces) private‐sector employment. In particular, we estimate regressions of unemployment or private‐sector employment on two measures of public‐sector employment. The study uses an especially assembled dataset, which is novel for its coverage of a large sample of developing countries as part of a panel of rich and poor countries. Our results point to full or just about full crowding‐out for the entire sample. Unlike previous cross‐country studies, which were restricted to advanced economies, we are able to show that these results also apply to developing countries, although crowding‐out may not be quite as high as in advanced economies. The results mean that high rates of public employment have an offsetting large negative impact on private employment rates and do not reduce overall unemployment rates. With the qualifier that government activities may help the economy in other ways, our results imply that, rather than creating public‐sector jobs, scarce fiscal resources could be better spent on other developmental needs.     

Corporate pollution control strategies and labor demand: evidence from China’s manufacturing sector

The loss of employment is an essential issue that looms large in policy debates on pollution control. This paper estimates the impact of pollution reduction on labor demand in China’s manufacturing sector in the period 2001–2007. We conduct this research by using a sample with unbalanced panel data matched from two unique datasets of environmental statistics and an industrial economic database. Using the environmental performance of peer firms as the instrumental variable, our overall results show that improvements in environmental performance through reductions in \( SO _2\) emissions and COD emissions led to a statistically significant reduction in employment. On average, a 1% reduction in \( SO _2\) (COD) emissions causes a reduction in labor demand of approximately 0.018–0.019% (0.012–0.013%). We complement existing studies by carefully examining the impacts of firms’ different abatement strategies on labor demand. We find that pollution reduction through pollution prevention has substitutive effects on employment and that pollution reduction through pollution control at the end of the production process may require additional workers and thus has positive but not significant effects on labor demand. Finally, pollution control has heterogeneous effects on labor demand by different types of polluting firms (e.g., ownership, region, and industry).     

Democratization and the depoliticization of the banking sector: Are all banks affected equally?

This paper shows that the influence of the dramatic change in political ties of the Indonesian banking sector following democratization varies widely by bank ownership type. Panel estimates using several unique data-sets show that the decrease in political ties over democratization positively influences the performance of government-owned banks while negatively influencing the performance for privately held banks. Results remain robust to a variety of alternative hypotheses and sensitivity tests. This study provides evidence not only of the differential impact of depoliticization, but also suggests that the relationship between political connections and performance may be different based on bank ownership.     

Do banking system transparency and competition affect nonperforming loans in the Chinese banking sector?

The increasing importance of transparency practices and the improving status of bank competition in China are rarely explored in nonperforming loans (NPLs) literature. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine banking system transparency and competition along with macroeconomic and bank-specific variables as determinants of NPL. We use the two-step system GMM dynamic panel model for Chinese banks based on annual data from 2000 to 2014. Our results indicate that high transparency in the Chinese banking system decreases poor-quality assets but not in the case of government-owned banks, whereas increase in competition increases NPL. Moreover, we find mixed results in the context of macroeconomics and bank-specific variables. Our study has practical implications in risk management practices and macro prudential policies.     

Government expenditure,real exchange rate and the ‘decline’ of the manufacturing sector: Some empirical evidence

I show that the increase in government expenditure in European countries during the 1970s raise the relative price of non-traded goods. This relative price movement may explain why the share of manufacturing in private sector value added declined in those countries.     

Too hot to handle?: Benefits and costs of stimulating the use of biofuels in the Swedish heating sector

This paper evaluates the impact of changes in current Swedish energy taxation by analyzing a panel of approximately 150 district heating plants in Sweden. We estimate plant-specific production functions and derive the economic repercussions of changing the energy tax system. We also estimate the resulting changes of emissions of Sulfur, NO_x, particulates and CO₂. Our results raise the issue of whether or not the Swedish tax system needs to be complemented with additional environmental taxes, covering, say, emissions of particulates. Because the geographical variation of damages is likely to be substantial, an overall re-assessment of current regulatory schemes seems preferable.     

Public sector retirement systems: what does the future hold?

Public pension plans will continue to search for cost-sharing retiree health care solutions and may shift to a defined contribution emphasis. Fiduciary responsibility will be highlighted in view of controversial plan changes, government budgetary constraints, scrutinized investment return assumptions, potential labor shortages and increased shareholder activism.     

Growing China’s renewables sector: a developmental state approach

Over the last decade China expanded its renewable energy sector with unprecedented speed. This success story presents a challenge to Western modes of environmental governance, where stakeholder participation is often deemed a necessary pre-condition for effective policy outcomes. Drawing on new research (including previously unpublished interview data), the article first discusses established modes of environmental governance before examining the growth of China’s renewables sector through the theoretical lens of the ‘developmental state’. The article then analyses renewable energy policy design and implementation in China, illustrating how top-down command and control strategies have successfully diffused renewable energy technology from a standing start. We argue that (1) China’s distinct approach to the sector differs from Western modes of environmental governance and (2) this has revealed a new path towards renewable energy diffusion that authoritarian states in particular might regard as an attractive alternative to participatory models.     

Entrepreneurial drain under moral hazard: A high-yield sector curse?

We describe a two-sector, general-equilibrium model of productive sorting under output risk and incomplete information. Risk-neutral (entrepreneurial) individuals can either produce alone, or - acting as employers/insurers - team up with risk-averse (non-entrepreneurial) individuals. Although the latter option has the potential to generate more surplus, when effort is unobservable and risk is high, the moral hazard problem in mixed matches may be too severe for mixing to be attractive to both risk-aversion types, leading to a segregated equilibrium in which risk-averse individuals select low-risk, low-yield activities. An increase in the profitability of the riskier sector can then trigger a switch from a mixed to a segregated equilibrium and cause aggregate output to fall. Evidence from a panel of non-OECD countries - showing that the presence of uninsured, small-scale mining firms has a negative impact on the relationship between natural resource exports and agrarian productivity - suggests that this ‘high-yield sector curse’ might be present in natural resource-rich, low-income countries.     

Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation

The aim of this article is to investigate the responses of European sector stock markets to oil price changes. We use linear and asymmetric models and study the association of oil and stock prices. Our findings suggest that the strength of this association varies greatly across sectors. Moreover, for some sectors we find strong evidence of asymmetry in the reaction of stock returns to changes in the price of oil.     

Did efficiency of Indian public sector banks converge with banking reforms?

This paper examines the issue of convergence of efficiency levels among Indian public sector banks (PSBs) during the post-reforms period spanning from 1992/1993 to 2005/2006. The empirical results indicate that the majority of PSBs have observed an ascent in technical efficiency during the post-reforms years. Further, the inefficient PSBs have been noted to be catching up with the efficient ones. That is, the banks with low level of efficiency at the beginning of the period are growing more rapidly than the highly efficient banks. In sum, the study confirms a presence of convergence phenomenon in the Indian public sector banking industry.

Forecasting performance of private sector’s unemployment forecasts in advanced economies

This paper provides a full characterization of unemployment rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of nine advanced economies between 1989 and 2012. It also assesses the performance of unemployment rate forecasts around business cycles’ turning points. We find evidence for biasedness, inefficiency or information rigidities and lack of accuracy of unemployment rate forecasts and the distribution of projection errors appears to be slightly twisted to over-prediction (which decreases during recession episodes). Additionally, there is a sense of ‘pessimism’ among forecasters during recovery periods.     

Is the efficient market hypothesis day-of-the-week dependent? Evidence from the banking sector

In this article, we propose a new hypothesis: that the efficient market hypothesis is day-of-the-week-dependent. We apply the test to firms belonging to the banking sector and listed on the NYSE. We find significant evidence that the efficient market hypothesis is day-of-the-week-dependent. Overall, for only 62% of firms, the unit root null hypothesis is rejected on all the five trading days. We also discover that when investors do not account for unit root properties in devising trading strategies, they obtain spurious profits.     

Are low-skill public sector workers really overpaid? A quasi-differenced panel data analysis

Public–private sectoral wage differentials have been studied extensively using quantile regression techniques. These typically find large public sector premiums at the bottom of the wage distribution. This may imply that low skill workers are ‘overpaid’, prompting concerns over efficiency. We note several other potential explanations for this result and explicitly test whether the premium varies with skill, using Australian data. We use a quasi-differenced Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) panel data model which has not been previously applied to this topic, internationally. Unlike other available methods, this technique identifies sectoral differences in returns to unobserved skill. It also facilitates a decomposition of the wage gap into components explained by differences in returns to all (observed and unobserved) skills and by differences in their stock. We find no evidence to suggest that the premium varies with skill. One interpretation is that the compressed wage profile of the public sector induces the best workers (on unobserved skills) to join the public sector in low wage occupations, vice versa in high wage occupations. We also estimate the average public sector premium to be 6% for women and statistically insignificant (4%) for men.     

The efficiency of the Scandinavian banking sector – a wavelet quantile regression analysis

In this article, the Scandinavian housing financing market is analysed in order to determine whether the interest rate price-discovery processes of Denmark, Norway and Sweden are efficient. Based on wavelet quantile regression analysis, we find systematic positive asymmetric price transmission (APT) inefficiencies. We conclude that there is a very high propensity for mortgage lenders to directly increase its customers’ mortgage interest rates subsequently to an increase in its borrowing costs. However, after a corresponding borrowing cost decrease, the same mortgage lenders are very slow to decrease its customers’ mortgage rates. These positive coefficients for so-called APT effects are found in all Scandinavian countries, even if the coefficients for Norway were not statistically significant. Wavelet quantile regression analysis, with a focus on the relevant higher percentiles, is easily motivated since the mortgage rates are adjusted very infrequently. Moreover, wavelet decomposition allows a robust analysis at different time frequency scales, while simultaneously controlling for nonstationary trends, autocorrelation and structural breaks. Except for the still positive but yet insignificant and inconclusive coefficients for Norway, the result is very clear-cut. Regardless of which wavelet scaling decomposition or quantile coefficient that is studied – positive APT effects are clearly identified and confirmed on the Scandinavian mortgage market.     

Why do growth rates differ? Evidence from cross-country data on private sector production

We estimate standard production functions with a new cross-country data set on business sector production, wages and R&D investment for a selection of 14 OECD countries including the US. The data sample covers years the 1960–2004. The data suggest that growth differences can largely be explained by capital deepening and the ability to produce new technology in the form of new patents. We also find strong evidence of complementarity between patents and openness of the economy, but little evidence of increasing elasticity of substitution over time.