Analysis on regional disparity of economic development in China based on DEA

The economy of China has been developing fast after the beginning of the new century, but the 31 provinces or municipalities （excluding Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao） develop disparately. So, finding an appropriate way to analyze and compare the economic situations of various regions is of great significance for the balanced development of the east coastal area and the hinterland. With the DEA method, on the basis of regionalism, this paper analyzes various regions of China, and gets the conclusion that the effective proportion of DEA of the coastal developed areas is relatively higher, and the extremely tittle foreign investment makes the relative efficiency of DEA of frontier areas pretty high. In addition, through the analysis parameters of the regions where DEA is relatively ineffective, this paper points out that the surplus labor force is the most influential factor, and the spare foreign investment is the main reason for the lack of efficiency of relatively developed regions.     

Population dividend and economic growth in China, 1978–2018

ABSTRACT

China witnessed important demographic transitions during the past 40 years. The significant decline in fertility rate, as a result of both policy change and economic factors, generated the so-called population dividends – rising proportion of working age population – during the past several decades. This paper demonstrates important channels through which broadly defined population dividends contribute to economic growth in China, by magnifying roles of capital, by improving labor quality, alongside increases in labor supply, and by strengthening labor mobility. As population aging now takes over from population dividends as the main demographic trend, it is possible for China to continue its strong growth by focusing on both the traditional growth factors, such as further reducing the proportion of agricultural workers, and new growth factors, such as further improving productivity by strengthening human capital and weakening institutional obstacles.     

Microeconomic analysis on the growth of trade volume in China: 1978–2007

The gravity equation is usually employed by researchers in the field of international trade to explain the growth of a country’s imports and exports volume, especially the manufactured goods. But in China, variables in the model, such as exchange rate, tariff, transportation cost, and spatial distance etc., are not sufficient to explain the riddle of China’s growth in trade volume. In fact, this growth in China’s trade volume is owing to the disintegration of production in the process of economic globalization, to the multinational corporations’ (MNC) vertical outsourcing of their manufacturing processes and procedures, and to the timely readjustment of Chinese enterprises on their strategies of participating in the international intra-product specialization. In this paper we establish an equilibrium model of intra-product specialization dominated by MNCs, and do some empirical tests on the growth in trade volume in China by using the variables including technological conditions of trade, similarity of economies, policy conditions of trade, disintegration of production and level of per capita capital equipment. The empirical results support our basic judgments.     

Urban–rural income polarization and economic growth in China: evidence from the analysis of a dynamic panel data model

Using a dynamic panel data model and the system GMM, this article examines the relationship between urban–rural income polarization and economic growth at the provincial level in the period 1995 to 2010 in China. The estimated results and significant tests indicate that a certain degree of urban–rural income polarization is beneficial to economic growth at the provincial level in both stages for China as a whole, though the contribution of urban–rural income polarization to economic growth is relatively small. Aggravating urban–rural income polarization has a negative impact on economic growth in China. Based on a cluster analysis of regional economic growth at the provincial level, the authors carried out the same analysis separately for two categories of regions too. The results for those two categories of regions show that positive correlations also exist between urban–rural income polarization and economic growth in both stages, which are very similar to the analysis for the whole of China. In addition, a meaningful finding can be derived that the contribution of consumption growth rate to economic growth rate in the second stage is smaller than that in the first stage obviously.     

Research on China’s export structure to the US: Analysis based on the US economic growth and exchange rate

Due to the rapid appreciation of RMB, the consistent declining of the US economy and other uncertain factors, China’s export volume to the United States has declined. The paper first chooses six industries to divide them into three groups based on per capita possession of capital, then employs the monthly data from 2001 to 2008 to carry out EG two-step cointegration test, and finally analyzes the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries. Empirical results show that the labor-intensive industries are most susceptible to fluctuations brought by economic growth and real exchange rate, while those industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors. In the short run, the export of labor-intensive products gives an advantage to China’s foreign trade development, but in the long-run, these industries will be affected greatly by various uncertain factors and the advantages of China’s labor-intensive export industries will disappear with the shift of the international division. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the dominant position of China’s foreign trade is to develop capital and technology intensive export industries and upgrade export structure.     

Banking sector depth and economic growth nexus: a comparative study between the natural resource-based and the rest of the world’s economies

This paper investigates the relationship between banking sector depth and long-term economic growth in the natural resource-based economies vis-à-vis economies that are not dependent on natural resources. For the empirical investigation, a Generalised Method of Moments estimator for dynamic panel data models is adopted for 194 countries spanning the period 1964–2013. Using different measures of banking sector depth and economic growth, the investigation yields three key findings. First, the banking–growth relationship is non-linear and positive within certain levels of banking sector depth in both country groups. Second, the time lag between the change in the level of banking sector depth and the effect on economic growth is shorter in the natural resource-based countries than in the other countries. Finally, the total effect of banking sector deepening on long-term economic growth is weaker in economies with abundant natural resources than in the rest of the world.     

The Analysis on the Relationship between Processing Trade and Economic Growth in China

With gradually deepening of international division and frequently developing of transnational corporations, processing trade has been a major trend in international trade. This paper mainly Seeks for the practical and theoretical, supports ,to processing, trade. Meanwhile, it ,shows the developing conditions of processing trade in the world and in China, and analyzes the relationship between processing trade and economic growth in China by linear regression analysis in order to find,the problems and give some suggestions.     

Lessons from the experience of OECD nations on macroeconomic growth and economic freedom, 2004–2008

This study empirically investigates the impact on per capita real economic growth of each of the ten measures of economic freedom computed annually by the Heritage Foundation. Within the context of the Random Effects Model, panel least squares estimations using a 5-year panel (2004 through 2008) dataset for the OECD nations as a group reveal that the percentage growth rate in the purchasing-power-parity adjusted per capita real GDP for OECD nations was, at the 5?% statistical significance level or better, an increasing function of at least seven of the ten economic freedom measures. The results underscore the critical role that economic freedom plays in a nation??s economic growth and prosperity and the importance of pursuing policies that are consistent with increasing economic freedom.     

Privatization,FDI inflow and economic growth: evidence from China's provinces, 1978–2008

China's economic growth over 1978–2008 is a miracle. This article attempts to figure out and quantify the factors leading to this miracle. It is generally believed that economic reform and opening up is the key to China's economic success, but that is far from being exact and specific. This study hypothesizes that privatization and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow are the two key factors in this process. We focus on identifying the exact, specific and detailed mechanisms of privatization and FDI inflow in promoting economic growth, especially from the provincial level. Then using a panel data covering 31 provinces of Chinese mainland over 1978–2008, we find statistically significant evidence to support our hypotheses. We predict that further economic growth depends on further privatization and opening up, that is, depends on denationalization of the economy.     

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

Where did all the remittances go? Understanding the impact of remittances on consumption patterns in rural China

We focus on the impact of migrants’ remittances on consumption patterns in China. Using a large homogenous sample of rural households surveyed in 2001 and 2004, we find that remittances are spent on nonhousing consumption expenditures at the margin, virtually dollar-for-dollar, when we instrument remittances and local employed earnings using proxies of social networks. Our findings are robust to intra-household division of labour and to fixed-effect for the county in which the respondents are registered. These results imply that rural households largely take remittances as permanent income and are consistent with the prevalence of circular and repeat migration in China.     

Energy consumption promotes economic growth or economic growth causes energy use in China? A panel data analysis

This study tries to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for twenty-nine provinces of China by employing the panel Granger causality analysis. The econometric methodology used in this paper allows us to untangle the causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth and helps us to discriminate between competing theories on which hypothesis is applicable to China. Among the main results, it is found that there is no causality in two out of twenty-nine provinces and bidirectional causality is observed in sixteen out of twenty-nine provinces. Unidirectional causality is observed in eleven out of twenty-nine provinces of China. When bootstrap critical values are used, our empirical findings indicate that there is an unidirectional causal link running from real output to energy use for China, implying that economic growth significantly affects energy consumption, and hence, the conservation hypothesis is applicable to China.     

Functional distribution of income,aggregate demand,and economic growth in the Chinese economy, 1978–2007

This paper seeks to analyse the relationship between the functional distribution of income, aggregate demand and growth in the Chinese reform economy. For this purpose, the Bhaduri-Marglin Model is used to indicate the theoretical possibility of both profit-led and wage-led growth regimes. Previously, the principal literature on the evolution of factor shares in China was reviewed. The statistical series for the period 1978–2007 are reconstructed to carry out our analysis of the relations between capital share and investment, on one hand, and labour share and consumption, on the other. Supported by empirical analysis and the model estimations, it is argued that Chinese growth has been profit-driven. Finally, the implications are presented concerning Chinese economic prospects.     

Analysis on the Stickiness of Grads Process in China

American economist Funon brought forward the theory of industry production lite cycle phases. But from the perspective of China, the developed regions are sill developed, while the low developed regions are still low developed. The factors are as below, relation with people and relation region of the original investment place,＇ the problem of sunk cost, the network of production and cooperation constructed, the weakness of establishment in lower process region, narrow market capability and low degree of market of west and the low work efficiency of government of low grade region Ineffective conduction system of investment information.     

Predictability within the energy consumption–economic growth nexus: Some evidence from income and regional groups

In re-examining the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth through the predictability framework, we adopt a panel data predictive regression model to examine the possibility of growth, conservative, feedback, or neutrality hypotheses for 135 countries. A predictive regression model is fitted to panels of countries on the basis of location and level of economic development. Findings suggest strong support for the neutrality hypothesis. A developing economy panel (90 countries) favours the conservative hypothesis, although a panel of 32 lower middle-income countries suggests that energy consumption per capita predicts real GDP per capita. These forecasts could provide future policy directions.     

A study of economic development in Tibet of China based on the ecological economic mode

The purpose of this paper is to study the issues on keeping the continuous development of Tibetan economy and the relative stability of its ecosystem. Hence, in order to achieve the object, the study analyzes the status quo of economic development in Tibet and the problems of resource exploitation. It especially discusses frailty of Tibetan eco-environment, and evaluates the contradictions between the traditional economic developing mode and the safety of plateau＇s ecosystem. It concludes that there is an inevitable clash between the development of Tibetan economy and the safety of plateau＇s eco-system; this problem cannot be avoided by any decision maker, Therefore, the character of Tibetan econvironment and the requirement of its economic development strategy determine that ecological economy developing mode is the only choice for Tibet. This paper suggests that it should be compensated by the national government to assure that Tibetan economy can keep a higher developing speed. In accordance with the feature of plateau eco-economy system and demand of Tibetan economic development, this paper also suggests several methods to apply the ecoeconomy developing strategy of Tibet.     

Bank loan versus financial lease: how do traditional and innovative approaches within the banking sector influence economic growth? A comparative analysis between the US and China

ABSTRACT

The argument over the effects of financial structures on economic growth remains unsettled. This study, therefore, compares the dynamic correlation and lead–lag relationship between the different financial approaches within the banking sector (that is, traditional bank loans versus innovative financial leasing) and economic growth. We employ a continuous wavelet analysis using time-series data from 1982–2017 from the US (the world’s largest developed country) and China (the world’s largest developing country). The empirical results show that (1) episodes of significant correlation usually emerge during periods of reform, crisis or policy implementation; and (2) in China, traditional banking promotes economic growth in the long term, while the real economy only imputes the evolution of banks during critical economic reforms in the short term. Meanwhile, financial leasing could only promote the development of the real economy under suitable regulation; and (3) in the US, before the crises, the irrational growth of the real economy could increase bank assets, while during the crises, the traditional banking approach harms economic growth, and after the crises, financial leases play an important role in recovery. Therefore, we suggest that policymakers should establish adequate policies and regulations to solve the situation.     

A research on the evolvement of industrial structure and economic growth of He＇nan Province, China

This paper, based on the investigation of the statistics in the years of 1980-2005, using Shift-Share Method model, studies systematically the relation between the evolution of industrial structure and regional economic growth in five economic regions in He＇nan to offer the foundation of policy for optimizing the industrial structure and promoting regional economic development in phase, and thereby comes to the conclusions： （1） the industrial structure level of He＇nan, in comparison with the evolution of the industrial structure across the country, remains low, but yet the evolutional tendency of industrial structure in He＇nan complies with the Clark taw of the industrial structure evolution; （2） the spatial difference of He＇nan industrial structure evolution is comparatively large, （3） the evolution of industrial structure in He nan that influences economic growth can be categorized into three types： in eastern and southern regions, the shift-share of the industrial structure is negative, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is negative, in western and central regions, the shift.share of the industrial structure is positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is positive; in northern regions; the shift-share of the industrial structure is positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is negative： （4） the evolution of industriai structure influences greatly the development of the regional economy of He nan As the results of the researches shown, it can innovation of He＇nan tra：ditional industry with high-tech the vast development of the tertiary industry, the expansion of He＇nan overall level o industrial structure, the growth of deep-processing manufacturing of agricultural products, and the increase of He＇nan agricultural products subsidiary value Will be the strategic choices of the rearrangement of He＇nan industrial structure.     

Linkages between poverty and income inequality of urban–rural sector: a time series analysis of India’s urban-based aspirations from 1951 to 1994

This study examines the impact of urban and rural development on poverty and inequality in India before economic reform. The methodology comprises two dimensions. Modern time series methods are used to uncover the dynamic patterns of urban–rural poverty and income inequality. A machine-learning algorithm is used to determine the causal structure among the development indicators. Our results show that reductions in rural poverty appear to be a more effective in reducing both urban and rural poverty, although the costs of achieving these reductions have not been considered.     

Institutions and the financial development–economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa

Using a sample splitting approach that does not impose an exogenous quadratic term, we examine the effect of financial development on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa by allowing the link to be mediated by the level of institutions. Our findings reveal a disproportionate growth-enhancing effect of finance, given countries’ distinct level of institutional quality. More specifically, when the International Country Risk Guide-based measure of institutions is used as the threshold variable, below the optimal level of institutional quality, financial development does not significantly promote economic growth. For countries with institutional quality above the threshold, higher finance is associated with growth. However, when institutions are measured by World Governance Indicators proxy, we find a significant effect of financial development, irrespective of whether a country is below or above the threshold. Interestingly, the growth-enhancing effect of finance is greater for low-institution countries relative to high-institution countries. Thus, through its ability to provide some crucial roles, the well-developed financial sector may also perform the function of sound institutions in influencing economic growth.