Trade Liberalization and Labor Unions

The present note builds a two-country model of Cournot oligopoly with country-specific labor unions. The impact of trade liberalization on wages and its consequent impact on union behavior and trade patterns are examined. We show that the union with relatively fewer number of firms will face the stronger pressure for wage moderation when trade is liberalized. We use this result to construct a simple example in which a country with higher autarky price becomes a net exporter of that good. We also discuss that our results are critically dependent on the mode of competition between firms.     

Income Smoothing and Discretionary R&D Expenditures of Japanese Firms*

During the recent recession (1991 to present), Japanese firms decreased their spending on R&D for the first time since World War II. The decreases have raised concerns that Japanese managers may be making suboptimal allocations to R&D. We test whether Japanese managers adjust R&D based on short‐term performance. Our results show that Japanese firms in several industries adjust their R&D budgets to smooth profits. Interestingly, adjustments to R&D are larger in expansion years. These results, similar to those documented with U.S. managers, point to myopic decision making by Japanese managers.     

Remittance Income Volatility and Labor Supply in Mexico

Using the 2000 through 2008 waves of the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH), Mexico's income and expenditure survey, we estimate the way in which volatility surrounding the inflows of international remittances impacts male and female labor supply. We find that male and female labor supply decreases with higher levels of remittance income. Additionally, increases in remittance income volatility raise the employment likelihood of men and women, as well as the hours worked by employed women. Since men are more likely than women to be employed full‐time, women may be better suited to respond to increased volatility in remittance income by raising the number of hours worked. Overall, the findings are suggestive of labor supply being used as a buffer against income shortfalls and increased volatility in remittance inflows.     

Income Smoothing and the Usefulness of Earnings for Monitoring in Debt Contracting

We investigate whether income smoothing affects the usefulness of earnings for contracting through the monitoring role of earnings-based debt covenants. First, we examine initial contract design and predict that income smoothing will increase (decrease) the use of earnings-based covenants if income smoothing improves (reduces) the usefulness of earnings to monitor borrowers. We find that private debt contracts to borrowers with greater income smoothing are more likely to include earnings-based covenants. A structural model that explores the cause of this relationship provides evidence that smoothing improves the ability of earnings to reflect credit risk. Second, we examine technical default following contract inception. We find that income smoothing is associated with a lower likelihood of spurious technical default (when the borrower's economic performance has not declined but the loan nevertheless enters technical default). In contrast, we find no association between income smoothing and performance technical default (when the borrower's economic performance has declined). Collectively, this evidence is consistent with income smoothing improving the effectiveness of earnings-based information in monitoring borrowers.     

理性看待劳动收入占比下降

劳动收入占国民收入的整个比重的下降，是不争的事实，不能由简单的统计误差所解释。和很多国家相比，我国劳动收入占国民收入的比重处在较低水平。在发达国家，劳动收入占国民收入的比重大概是65％到70％，美国和英国经济在过去50年中，劳动收入占GDP的比重在65％到80％之间波动，而我们是40％以下。     

换工作对收入水平和收入增长的影响

本文利用中国社会科学院2002年的CHIPS数据,分析了换工作对于劳动者收入水平和收入增长的影响。本文通过控制初始的收入水平来解决异质性的影响。结果表明,对于初始收入水平较低的样本,换工作对其收入有正的影响,而对于初始收入较高的样本,换工作则有负的影响。如果直接考察换工作对于收入增长的影响,给定初始收入和其他特征,换工作对于收入增长的平均影响是正的。不仅如此,换工作对于低收入者的收入增长有较大的正的影响。     

论提高我国劳动收入占比的原因与困难

文章通过文献回顾,比较了两种不同的分析劳动收入占比的理论框架,发现运用马克思的理论框架进行分析比较符合我国实际情况。然后,通过理论分析和数据计算,说明了提高我国劳动收入占比的原因：我国劳动收入占比总体上有下降趋势,但是这种下降并没有带来利润率的增加,反而带来了围绕工资问题的劳资冲突增加。更进一步的分析表明,提高我国劳动收入的占比会遇到两重基本困难,即利润率下降的可能和劳资冲突依然增加并升级的可能。     

人力资本、劳动收入份额与共同富裕

共同富裕目标的核心是增加居民收入和缩小居民收入差距,人力资本水平的提升能增加劳动者的收入。劳动收入份额作为收入分配的一项重要指标,有利于改善初次分配不平等,缩小收入差距,进而促进共同富裕目标的实现。利用2011—2021年中国30个省份的数据,运用固定效应、中介效应模型,实证分析人力资本对共同富裕的影响以及劳动收入份额在两者之间发挥的作用。研究发现,人力资本水平的提升能够促进共同富裕,且该结论在进行一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;中介效应分析表明,劳动收入份额在人力资本对共同富裕的影响之间起到中介的作用;异质性分析表明,在东部和经济规模大的地区,人力资本对共同富裕的促进作用更为明显。     

Portfolio Implications of Cointegration Between Labor Income and Dividends

This paper analyzes the implications of cointegration between labor income and dividends for the optimal portfolio weight for stocks. In a recent paper, Benzoni et al. (J Finance 62:2123–2167, 2007) claim that, as a result of cointegration, the optimal weight in stocks may be smaller for young investors than for older investors. This contradicts the traditional life-cycle models which typically imply portfolio weights that decrease with age. This paper shows that when stock returns are affected by other factors than dividend growth, for example due to time-varying discount rates, the portfolio implications of cointegration are much less severe. In a realistically calibrated model, the life-cycle pattern for the portfolio weight of stocks is flat, except for very young investors.     

Joint Tests of Signaling and Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions*

We examine whether and how managers use loan loss provisions to smooth income and to signal their private information about their banks' future prospects. Our paper highlights that the use of the loan loss provision to accomplish more than one objective gives rise to situation‐specific costs and benefits of manipulating the provision up or down. We hypothesize that relatively undervalued banks have greater incentives to signal their future prospects than fairly valued banks and that banks' incentives to smooth intensify as premanaged earnings deviate from norms. On the basis of these conjectures, we categorize sample banks into subgroups that are predicted to use loan loss provisions consistent with their situation‐specific incentives. This allows us to refine the research methods used in prior research to examine heterogeneous incentives. While we find evidence consistent with the use of loan loss provisions to smooth earnings, particularly when premanaged earnings are extreme, our evidence on signaling is less consistent. In particular, our signaling results depend on the introduction of an interaction term that has not been used in prior research. We also document that the intensity of smoothing (signaling) is not uniform across the sample. In addition to being a function of the incentive to smooth (signal), it also is a function of the incentive to signal (smooth).     

Labor Unions and Management’s Incentive to Signal a Negative Outlook*

Evidence suggests that the negotiated wage for a unionized employee group is an increasing function of the firm’s prior profitability. As a result, managers may have an incentive to strategically signal a negative outlook to their unionized workers in order to improve the firm’s bargaining position. I assess the strategy of missing mean consensus analysts’ earnings estimates as a way for managers to signal a negative outlook to their unionized employees. I find that unionized firms are more likely to miss estimates than their nonunionized counterparts. Additionally, this propensity to miss estimates is increasing in both the firm’s percentage of unionized employees and multiunionism, but is unaffected by the timing of the signal relative to contract renewal. Finally, the increased propensity to miss estimates appears to be driven by both differences in expectations management and earnings management across the two groups. Specifically, managers of unionized firms take less action than their nonunionized counterparts to guide forecasts downward when estimates are too high, and they take more action to deflate earnings when expectations are too low. Taken together, the findings suggest that managers do seek to project a negative outlook to their unions, and that this tendency is increasing in the union’s negotiation strength.     

劳动价值理论与上海收入分配问题研究

随着社会经济的发展，劳动价值理论体系中一些范畴以及一些概念之间的联系必然要发生演化。因此，有必要联系现实经济，对劳动价值论作进一步的深入认识，理论研究体系和价值评价体系对社会经济活动是有重要影响的。在价值理论及分配理论的研究中，应当从理论与实际相联系的角度把握马克思主义的与时俱进理论品格，准确地理解并创造性地发展马克思主义，用以指导社会主义市场经济的伟大实践。     

资本深化、结构变迁及劳动收入份额变动

本文通过构建一个具有要素密集度差异的两部门模型,分析了部门间TPP增长率差异、物质资本积累、恩格尔效应、以及部门进入壁垒变化对产业结构和劳动收入份额的影响.在资本深化且劳动密集型产品为优先需求的前提下,恩格尔效应将会导致劳动收入份额下降,并且这种效应渐近地趋于零;其次,部门TFP增长率差异、物质资本积累、产业壁垒变化对...     

Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China

The year 1996 was a turning point both in terms of Chinese labor market reform aria m China＇s economic growth pattern. Before 1996, labor market reform was mainly implemented through adjustment of people＇s occupation and income structure. Since 1996, employment restructuring has led to differentiation in terms of employment status. Labor market reform in the former stage resulted in slow growth in wages, whereas reform in the latter stage enhanced economic efficiency. Both stages have enabled the Chinese economy to apply its comparative advantage of low labor cost. Labor market reform has also increased income disparity and, therefore, new challenges are posed in sustaining economic growth. China needs to adjust its development strategies and introduce labor market reform that can improve income equality, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.     

农村劳动力转移对农民增收贡献的实证分析

从改革开放以来农民收入来源变化与构成特点分析,可以发现在农民人均纯收入构成中,通过非农就业所获得的收入已成为农民人均纯收入增长的主体,其中通过劳动力转移形成的工资性收入对农民人均纯收入增长的贡献最大。因此,积极鼓励和引导农村劳动力转移,是促进农民增收最直接、最有效的现实选择。     

资本深化、技术进步与全球化下的劳动报酬份额

劳动报酬在国民收入中所占份额,一定程度上决定了一国最终消费需求大小。本文在新古典分配模型基础上,讨论了资本深化、技术进步以及全球化对我国劳动报酬份额影响机制,并运用省际面板数据进行实证分析。结果显示,具有资本增强属性的技术进步和过快的资本深化,偏离了现阶段我国要素禀赋结构,显著地降低了我国劳动报酬份额,全球化对提高我国劳动所得影响不明显。最后,本文给出了相关政策建议。