利率市场化背景下银行同业存款定价的模型设计

随着我国利率市场化进程的不断推进,同业存款已经实现了市场化定价。为了适应利率市场化的形势,进一步巩固客户关系,并为银行业务发展提供低成本的资金来源,需要积极研究完善同业存款定价方法。本文借鉴西方商业银行在存贷款等产品定价方面的研究,结合当前商业银行金融同业业务的具体情况,设计了基于客户综合贡献和银行目标利润的同业存款定价模型,并对此方法做进一步的讨论,提出要将定量分析与定性分析相结合,完善客户关系管理(CRM)系统,结合不同行业同业客户特点提高该模型适用性等建议。     

利率市场化背景下的商业银行个人理财产品

目前我国商业银行个人理财产品层出不穷,但是就产品种类而言,缺乏突破,原因在于利率没有完全放开,金融风险因子不够丰富,商业银行无法为客户提供风险梯度完整的产品,也无法有效进行套期操作保值。利率市场化的深入将有助于解决这些问题。同时,商业银行个人理财产品将逐步替代部分银行存款,从而有助于放开银行存款利率,实现利率市场化。     

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Asymmetries and Persistence in Bank Deposit Rates

This paper contains a model of price setting in the presence of heterogeneous customers, explaining why bank interest rates respond sluggishly to some extended movements in market interest rates but not to others. Price (the bank interest rate) is likely to change only slightly with cost (the market interest rate) when the price-cost margin is already large and to be responsive when the price-cost margin is relatively small. The model is tested using data on interest rates offered for bank deposit instruments during 1987–2001. The results support the theoretical model, indicating that customer behavior plays a role in bank interest rate decisions.     

包头与呼和浩特地区GDP、人均可支配收入、人口与银行存款关系研究

本文从宏观角度实证研究包头和呼和浩特地区银行存款与GDP、人口和人均可支配收入之间的关系,结果表明三个因素对银行存款都有重要的影响,随着GDP和居民人均可支配收入的增加,银行存款会不断增长;人口的变动也会增加银行存款。因此,发展经济,增加居民可支配收入,保持人口合理增长和变动,才能稳定持续增加银行存款。     

从紧的货币政策对房地产行业投资的影响分析——基于存款准备金率、利率的调控分析

本文利用2006—2008年我国房地产行业的投资数据,分析了从紧货币政策对房地产行业投资的影响。结果显示利率调整抑制了房地产行业的投资,而上调存款准备金率没有影响房地产行业投资的增长,与预期的结果相反。主要原因是2007以来的通货膨胀冲销了利率调控效应,紧缩的货币政策使金融机构减少了个人的贷款而不是企业贷款,另外流动性过剩推动了房地产开发投资的过快增长。当前,应强化房地产信贷风险的管理,进一步理顺货币政策的传导机制,加强宏观调控作用,使我国房地产市场健康、持续发展。     

驳中小商业银行危机论——基于利率市场化视角

中国利率市场化进程不断加速,利率变动也将愈加频繁,给中小商业银行的盈利能力和经营管理水平带来严峻挑战,国内某些媒体开始鼓吹中小银行＂存款搬家论＂。尤其是存款保险制度即将推出之际,中小上商业银行危机论甚嚣尘上。我们应该看到利率市场化同时也给中小银行带来了发展机遇,中小银行的风险监管能力、定价能力、业务结构、金融创新都在不断完善,完全可以适应利率市场化的金融环境,大规模的中小银行倒闭潮不会出现。     

韩国利率市场化改革与其经济金融运行变化

文章回顾了韩国利率市场化改革的历程及其经济金融运行的积极变化。20世纪80年代起,韩国逐渐放弃政府主导型的管理政策,启动利率市场化改革进程。其改革经历了从放开到管制、从管制到重新放开的两个阶段,虽然其中经历了挫折,但最终还是成功实现。利率市场化促进了实际利率由负转正,达到了在控制通胀的前提下促进经济增长之目的。     

利率市场化背景下商业银行应对策略研究——以中国农业银行安徽省分行为例

自2012年央行两次降息并扩大利率浮动区间之后,7月19日,央行又宣布,自2013年7月20日起全面放开金融机构贷款利率管制,该政策的出台意味着利率市场化改革进入关键阶段。本文在分析利率市场化给商业银行带来冲击的基础上,提出应对之策,并进一步指出要完善相关配套政策,以便在顺利实施利率市场化的同时,促进社会经济健康发展。     

Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables

In this paper we develop a multi-factor “reduced-form” model that is general enough to capture simultaneously the dynamics of multiple term structures of corporate bonds, each with a different credit rating. In this way, we are able to fully incorporate a number of “stylised facts”, reported on a number of previous empirical studies. More specifically, we are able to estimate the different degrees of covariation between the term structure of each credit rating and the default-free yield curve. Furthermore, we report the differing sensitivities of the credit curves to a number of observable macro-factors that reflect changes in credit conditions, both domestic and international. Finally, the dependence of each credit curve on a number of idiosyncratic state-variables is also documented. Our results are based on two special cases of the model, estimated using US and UK corporate bond data.     

利率、汇率调整对房地产价格的影响——基于理论与经验的研究

本文首先构建了适合我国国情的房地产价格与利率、汇率关系模型，然后利用该模型对我国12个城市房地产价格与利率、汇率的关系进行实证研究。研究结果显示，利率与房地产价格呈负向关系；汇率与房地产价格之间具有相同的变化趋势，与理论分析有较大差异，表明我国金融制度仍存在缺陷，逐步完善金融市场才能更好地发挥利率和汇率调节经济的功能。因此，我们认为房地产价格保持相对稳定是房地产业安全运行的关键，在完善的金融制度下正确的利率和汇率政策能在此方面发挥重要作用。     

利率市场化对地方银行发展影响研究--以河南省地方银行数据为例

利率市场化在给地方银行带来机遇的同时也造成了地方银行存贷款利差空间的缩小、资金流动性难于管理、信用违约等风险，地方银行应采取措施，如加快经营转型步伐，提升利率定价与风险管理水平等措施，以实现地方银行的可持续发展。     

An examination of real interest rates in the United States, Canada, France, and Germany during the recent floating exchange rate period

This study reexamines the international linkage of ex-ante real interest rates using the theory of cointegrated processes. The univariate unit root tests suggest the existence of a nonstationary real interest rate in the United States, Canada, and (the former) West Germany. An ex-ante real interest rate is obtained by subtracting estimates of inflation from the nominal interest rate. The expected inflation rates are obtained by modeling changes in monthly CPI values as autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. A multivariate test for unit roots indicates that there are two cointegrating vectors, or one common stochastic trend, for the system of three nonstationary real interest rates. In addition, the log-likelihood ratio test fails to reject the null hypothesis that, in the long run, real interest rates in the United States are equal to those in Canada and West Germany.     

银行资产负债中隐含期权的风险衡量及其定价

随着利率市场化进程的加快,银行资产负债中的隐含期杈风险渐渐地成为商业银行的主要风险管理对象,针对这种现象,本文提出了一系列隐含期权的风险衡量的数学计量方法,并对隐含期权进行分解定价,最后提出了一些隐含期权的风险控制建议.     

认真总结Shibor建设经验，做好新时期Shibor工作

经过五年多来的建设培育,Shibor已基本确立了我国货币市场基准利率地位,成为传导货币政策、反映市场利率变动的重要指标,并在市场化利率形成机制中发挥重要作用。文章总结五年来Shibor建设和培育的经验,探讨进一步夯实Shibor货币市场基准利率地位的工作思路,指出在利率市场化不断推进和金融市场持续发展的新时期,继续做好Shibor建设培育工作显得更加紧迫,也具有十分重要的意义。各报价行应高度重视,齐心协力,推动Shibor建设培育工作再上新的台阶。     

利息是利润的一部分——评加息争议

马克思系统科学地论证了利息是利润的一部分,利息率由利润率调节。中国利率形成机制与发达国家不同,没有以调控货币量为基础,在开放背景下,加息反而可能加剧通胀。由于利息是利润的一部分,针对目前关于加息的争议,我们要吸取经验教训,防止加息造成“利息挤压利润”导致企业经营困境。基于利息本原的理论逻辑与现实表现,目前加息应慎行。     

The Relationship between Federal Deficits and Real Interest Rates

Real interest rates fluctuated a great deal since the 1970s. In the 1980s federal deficits accelerated and their impact on both nominal and real interest rates gained lots of attention. Based on monthly and quarterly data from January 1971 to December 1997 it is found that federal deficits had significant positive effect on the real interest rates: Personal income or consumption are found to have significant positive impact on the real interest rates, whereas expected inflation and money supply are found to have negative impact on the real interest rates. These findings are consistent with the conventional economic theory.     

2014年FCI分析及政策启示

金融条件指数（FCI）是衡量和预测一国货币政策和金融松紧状况的重要参考指标,对实体经济有较强的预测能力。本文结合我国的实际情况,构建了包括实际利率、实际有效汇率、社会融资规模增速、房地产市场指数、股票市场指数等5类因素在内的FCI。从总体上看,2014年我国FCI呈先升后降、总体下行的特点,对经济增长有抑制作用。从FCI成分指标变化看,除股票市场对FCI改善发挥了积极作用外,其他几个因素都在不同程度上对FCI产生了抑制作用,其中实际有效汇率对FCI下降的贡献为61.1%,是对FCI影响最大的因素。本文逐项分析了影响FCI的因素,并就金融如何更好地支持经济发展提出了政策建议。     

存款准备金率上调对中小商业银行流动性的影响

目前国家宏观调控政策频出,近期货币政策逐步收紧,使中小商业银行的发展环境更加不容乐观,发展压力逐步加大。因此,本文阐明了准备金率上调对中小商业银行流动性的影响,提出应对可能产生流动性风险的管理建议。     

Real Interest Rate Parity: Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis Using Wavelets

In this article, long-run and short-run relationships among real interest rates in G-7 countries are empirically analyzed. The evidence suggests the existence of long-run relationships among these real interest rates. However, the long-run relationship is not an equality relationship. Short-run relationships are estimated using dynamic simultaneous equation models. They reveal that the real interest rates of non-U.S. G-7 countries react and adjust to long-run disequilibrium conditions. A more detailed analysis based on wavelet transform indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships; however, strict interest rate parity does not seem to hold true.JEL Classification: C22, E43, G15