美联储应对金融危机的货币政策:效果、特点与问题

2007年以来,美联储为了应对金融危机,实施了扩张性货币政策,并根据市场需要,创设了一系列非常规货币政策工具.在货币政策的调控下,市场信心得以恢复,金融机构倒闭现象得到遏制,并阻止了经济深度衰退.但极度扩张的货币政策也带来了后续的通货膨胀、债务风险等问题,需要采取有效措施加以解决.     

Is monetary policy effective in dampening fiscally induced exchange market pressures? Evidence from Ghana

Episodes of currency crises in Ghana over the recent past were examined. We also address two fundamental questions using VAR framework. First, how does fiscal policy relate to exchange market pressures (EMPs) in Ghana? Second, whether persistent fiscal slippages hinder the effective use of interest rate as monetary policy tool to influence undesirable exchange rate fluctuations? We found sterilization interventions to be more effective than interest rate as a monetary policy tool in moderating tensions in foreign exchange market. Higher recurrent expenditure was generally associated with higher EMP, while capital expenditures tend to assuage EMP. We recommend strong policy coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities to ensure macroeconomic stability.     

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Arrangements: Evidence from the Caribbean

This paper assesses the nature of fiscal discipline under alternative exchange rate regimes. First, it shows that fiscal agencies under a currency union with a fixed exchange rate can have a larger incentive to overspend or "free ride" than those under other exchange rate regimes, owing to the agencies' ability to spread the costs of overspending in inflation tax across both time, given the fixed exchange rate, and space, given the currency union. In contrast, such free-riding behavior does not arise under flexible regimes owing to the immediate inflationary impact of spending. Next, empirically, fiscal stances in countries with fixed pegs and currency union regimes demonstrate greater free-riding behavior than do countries with more flexible regimes in fifteen Caribbean countries from 1983 to 2004.     

Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a Financially Vulnerable Emerging Economy

When analyzing the appropriate response for monetary policy during a currency crisis, it is important to keep in mind two distinct channels: the effect of raising interest rates on exchange rates and the direct effect of exchange rate changes on output. The first pertains to the monetary side of the economy as given by the interest parity condition. The second pertains to the real side of the economy. The interaction between these two parts of the economy derives the equilibrium output and exchange rate in the economy. This paper expands on the Aghion et al. (2000) monetary model with nominal rigidities and foreign currency debt, to examine the interaction between the real and monetary sides of the economy and to analyze the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We find that the effect of monetary policy on exchange rate and output is theoretically ambiguous. This in turn suggests that the appropriate monetary policy response could vary among countries at any point in time, or for a particular country between two different periods.     

Is the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices Declining? Evidence from Chile

Several empirical studies have found that the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices is not complete and declined during the 1990s. In this paper we carry out a reexamination of these findings using a unique database of disaggregated import prices both at the border and wholesale levels for Chile. Our results do not support previous conclusions. We find a complete and nondeclining ERPT in the long run at both pricing levels of Chilean imports. We extend previous evidence by showing that, in the short run, wholesale prices seem to be less sensitive to exchange rate variations. In addition, we find weak evidence of asymmetric pass-through from appreciations versus depreciations for the aggregate import indexes in the short run and the long run.     

人民币均衡汇率估计

本文用购买力平价法估计人民币均衡汇率,通过对184个国家及地区1974～2007年的年度面板数据进行估计,发现人民币自1985年以后一直被低估,2005～2007年人民币被低估的幅度分别为23%、20%和16%。与已有的多数文献相比,这一估计结果显得比较适中。本文还检验了估计结果对样本选择和解释变量选择的敏感性,结果证明估计结果具有高度稳健性。对人民币失衡和我国贸易平衡的关系以及人民币向均衡水平调整速度的分析,进一步支持估计结果的合理性。根据估计结果,我们认为应该放慢人民币升值速度,否则会带来一系列消极影响。     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and risk aversion: evidence from the U.S. and European equity markets

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of unconventional monetary policy announcements on risk aversion – as proxied by the variance premium – by using panel data analysis. The objective of this empirical analysis is to investigate the risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the major European and U.S. equity markets by studying the impact that the announcements of an unconventional monetary policy has on market uncertainty and risk perception. By measuring the difference between risk-neutral and realised and conditional variance, we estimate the variance premium, which captures the impact that pricing concerns have on the prices of options. The empirical analysis indicates that easing monetary policies can significantly reduce the variance premium. In addition, we examine the risk premium structure across markets to determine the potential differences in investors’ risk aversion.     

Money, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking

Anna Schwartz's insights and careful analysis of the forces shaping institutions have contributed greatly to our understanding of money, central banks, and monetary policy. We discuss these contributions in the context of three issues. The first concerns governments' role in money. First, we focus on Anna's contribution to our understanding of the quality of money. In this context, we consider how the acceleration of globalization and developments in information technology has, as an external development, forced improvements in institutions and social arrangements. The second issue concerns the potential for currency boards to serve as an intermediate institution in the evolution toward and, perhaps now, away from so many central banks and sovereign monetary authorities. Finally, we turn our attention to current issues in the implementation of monetary policy.     

最优货币区视角下的中国货币政策区域效应分析

基于最优货币区理论,中国还不是最优货币区.按照外贸依存度和人均CDP把中国经济区域分为A、B、C三个区域,采用向量自回归模型(VAR)和脉冲响应函数(IRF)定量检验得出,中国确实存在货币政策的区域效应.从货币政策传导机制的角度来看,汇率渠道是产生货币政策区域效应的主要原因,利率渠道对货币政策区域效应的解释力不强.     

UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks

Abstract:  We investigate the influence of changes in UK monetary policy on UK stock returns and the possible reasons behind such a response. Firstly, we conduct an event study to assess the impact of unexpected changes in monetary policy on aggregate and sectoral stock returns. The decomposition of unexpected changes in the policy rate is based on futures markets data. Secondly, using a variance decomposition in the spirit of Campbell (1991) we attempt to identity the channels behind the response of stock returns to monetary policy surprises. The variance decomposition results indicate that the monetary policy shock leads to a persistent negative response in terms of future excess returns for a number of sectors.     

基于ERPT效应的我国货币政策与汇率政策协调性研究

通过ARDL模型对我国名义有效汇率对物价水平的ERPT效应进行了测度,发现现阶段我国货币政策与汇率政策各自都较合乎情理,但是二者并没有达成一种相互协调的整体。在目前ERPT效应相对较低（货币政策的稳定情况影响效应的大小）和支出转换效应效果不明显的现实情况下,保证货币政策稳健、及时、有效,并对货币供给的自主控制将成为我国央行的首要目标,而适度的放开名义汇率的浮动范围将成为实现这一目标的有效途径。     

低利率环境下的政府债务成本与财政政策选择

在未来较长时间内,名义利率和实际利率可能保持低位,低利率压缩了货币政策操作空间,较低的财政成本和较高财政收入,意味着财政政策应该且能够更多发挥更大作用。在政府债务稳定与产出稳定的权衡中,应更多关注产出稳定。     

关于货币政策在经济调整中的作用和面临的风险

该文通过分析重温了货币主义的主要观点,对于货币政策在本轮危机中扮演的角色以及过于灵活的相机抉择式的微调模式提出质疑;并回到货币主义的立场,以货币数量轮的视角来评判当前美国货币政策操作。文章认为货币政策不应过多关注资本市场,保持货币和基准利率相对平稳对于宏观经济运行至关重要。     

美联储应对次贷危机的货币政策工具

在次贷危机的应对中,美联储的货币政策激进、灵活,与正常时期的渐进主义策略大相径庭。文章在对次贷危机以来美联储的货币政策操作进行梳理的基础上,研究美联储应对危机的货币政策机理,发现在危机时期,美联储始终坚持其担负的目标,货币政策体现为及时的、决定性的和灵活的。最后,文章探讨了美联储的危机时期政策对我国央行货币政策操作的启示。     

中国央行数字货币的设计机制及潜在影响研究--基于央行数字货币专利申请的分析

本文基于央行数字货币专利申请信息和相关专家公开论述,系统分析了央行数字货币的设计演变、双层投放体系及其对金融体系、政策调控的潜在影响。研究认为,央行数字货币在中心化、双层投放体系设计下,定位于现金替代,对商业银行存款挤出及货币乘数影响较小。央行数字货币在保护用户隐私、提高监管能力、降低交易成本和简化跨境支付方面有着显著优势,对现有第三方支付业务产生替代效应。央行数字货币也会影响以支付为重要入口的金融科技业务和数字金融解决方案输出业务的发展,但若数字货币支付交易数据能够在保证安全和隐私的前提下,向金融科技企业和金融机构开放数据分析接口,则有利于打破数据孤岛,推动金融科技业务和金融数字化转型更好更快发展。