The effect of R&D on future returns and earnings forecasts

Prior studies attribute the future excess returns of research and development activity (R&D) firms to either compensation for increased risk or to mispricing. We suggest a third explanation and show that neither the level of R&D investment nor the change in R&D investment explains future returns. Rather, the positive future returns that prior studies attribute to R&D investment are actually due to the component of the R&D firm??s realized return that is unrelated to R&D investment but present in R&D firms. Our results suggest that the excess returns of R&D firms are part of the larger value/growth anomaly. In addition, we show that while future earnings are positively associated with current R&D, errors in earnings expectations by investors and analysts are not related to R&D investment.     

Does social network sentiment influence the relationship between the S&P 500 and gold returns?

This study explored the relationship between investor sentiment (extracted from the StockTwits social network), the S&P 500 Index and gold returns. We investigated bilateral causality between gold prices and S&P 500 prices, the power of investor sentiment and gold returns to predict S&P 500 returns, and the influence of gold returns on S&P 500 volatility. We also considered whether the influence of sentiment varies according to the user's degree of experience. We considered the sentiment of messages that mentioned the S&P 500 Index and that users posted between 2012 and 2016. Granger causality analysis, ARIMA models and GARCH models were used for predicting S&P 500 Index returns and S&P 500 volatility. We observed a causal relationship between gold price and the S&P 500 Index. Our results also suggest that sentiment and gold returns predict S&P 500 Index returns. Finally, we observed that gold returns influence S&P 500 volatility and that the sentiment of experienced users affects S&P 500 returns.     

Generalists vs. specialists: Who are better acquirers?

We examine the impact of lifetime work experience of top executives on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) behavior and outcome. Based on hand-collected data of top executives in a sample of Chinese firms during 2002–2018, we construct a generalist ability index of top executives to study the impact of generalist top executives (GTEs) vs. specialist top executives (STEs) on M&As. Our findings suggest that GTEs conduct more M&As than those of STEs. The results are robust to alternate specifications of M&A frequencies and after accounting for endogeneity issue. Furthermore, the M&A announcement and long-term returns are better for acquirers with GTEs than those with STEs. We attribute the findings to GTEs' ability of searching target ex ante, making the M&A process efficient, and fully leveraging their social networks post M&A. In addition, we find the increase in M&A activities in GTE firms are primarily due to GTEs' experience of M&As rather than their talents. Finally, the M&As from GTEs improve investment efficiency and are less likely to divest targets post M&As. In sum, GTEs conduct more M&As and they create value in the process.     

R&D investment and distress risk

This paper proposes that besides volatility, R&D can increase firms' distress risk through another channel. Unlike capital investment, R&D is more inflexible and subject to high adjustment costs. Moreover, R&D intensive firms face severe financial constraints and are more likely to suspend/discontinue R&D projects. Therefore, firms' distress risk increases with their R&D intensity. Using a large panel of US companies over the 1980 to 2011 period, I find a robust empirical relation between R&D and distress risk, primarily among financially constrained firms. Moreover, the effect of R&D on distress risk is magnified during economic downturns. I also find that firms that have been previously successful in R&D or firms with high analyst coverage can mitigate the relationship between R&D and distress risk.     

Will the real R&D employees please stand up? Effects of tax breaks on firm-level outcomes

This paper evaluates the effect of tax incentives for research and development (R&D) on R&D spending and employment of R&D staff in a quasi-experimental setting. To do this, I exploit an exogenous reform in UK R&D tax policy, which changed the definition of an SME from firms with fewer than 250 employees to those with fewer than 500 employees. I use the UK Business Enterprise Research and Development Survey (BERD), for which companies do not have an incentive to relabel their ordinary employees or spending as R&D. I find that R&D tax incentives help to increase R&D spending at the company level; this translates to a user cost elasticity between ?0.88 and ?1.18. Further, the additional R&D generated through the tax relief can be attributed entirely to an increase in the number of R&D employees in the companies’ workforce. Together, these results challenge a common narrative on the role of R&D tax incentives.     

Mispricing of Research and Development Investments in a Rapidly Emerging and Electronics-Dominated Market

This paper documents prevailing mispricing of research and development (R&D) investments in the Taiwan stock market, a rapidly emerging and electronics-dominated market. Applying stock return data from July 1988 to June 2005, we observe that R&D-intensive stocks tend to outperform stocks with little or no R&D. The R&D-intensity effect cannot be attributed fully to firm size and seasonal effects. The R&D-associated anomaly not only exists but also persists for up to three years. The market apparently undervalues R&D-intensive firms and overvalues non-R&D-intensive firms. Finally, the R&D anomaly is clearer for firms in the electronics industry after 1996.     

S&P 500 trading strategies and stock betas

This paper shows that S&P 500 stock betas are overstatedand the non-S&P 500 stock betas are understated becauseof liquidity price effects caused by the S&P 500 tradingstrategies. The daily and weekly betas of stocks added to theS&P 500 index during 1985-1989 increase, on average, by0.211 and 0.130. The difference between monthly betas of otherwisesimilar S&P 500 and non-S&P 500 stocks also equals 0.125during this period. Some of these increases can be explainedby the reduced nonsynchroneity of S&P 500 stock prices,but the remaining increases are explained by the price pressureor excess volatility caused by the S&P 500 trading strategies.I estimate that the price pressures account for 8.5 percentof the total variance of daily returns of a value-weighted portfolioof NYSE/AMEX stocks. The negative own autocorrelations in S&P500 index returns and the negative cross autocorrelations betweenS&P 500 stock returns provide further evidence consistentwith the price pressure hypothesis.     

R&D tax incentives: a reappraisal

This paper examines R&D tax incentives in oligopolistic markets. We characterize the conditions under which tax incentives reach the socially desirable level of firm-financed R&D spending. The outcome of the market depends not only on the level of technological spillover in the industry but also on the degree of strategic interaction between the firms. One major result emerges from the model: The socially desirable level of R&D investment is not necessarily reached by subsidizing R&D. When the technological spillover is sufficiently low, the government might want to tax R&D investments, and this result does not necessarily arise because firms are overinvesting in R&D. There are also cases in which an R&D tax is desirable even though firms are underinvesting in R&D compared with the first-best optimum. In practice, this theoretical finding calls for a lower sales tax combined with an R&D subsidy in oligopolistic industries with high technological spillovers, and a lower sales tax combined with an R&D tax in oligopolistic industries with low technological spillovers.     

Do institutional investors drive corporate social responsibility? International evidence

This paper assesses whether shareholders drive the environmental and social (E&S) performance of firms worldwide. Across 41 countries, institutional ownership is positively associated with E&S performance with additional tests suggesting this relation is causal. Institutions are motivated by both financial and social returns. Investors increase firms’ E&S performance following shocks that reveal financial benefits to E&S improvements. In cross section, investors increase firms’ E&S performance when they come from countries with a strong community belief in the importance of E&S issues, but not otherwise. As such, these institutional investors transplant their social norms regarding E&S issues around the world.     

THE SUBJECTIVITY OF THE FASB'S CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK: A COMMENTARY ON BRYER

Bryer argues that the FASB's conceptual framework is inherently subjective because it is based on the concept of “economic value”, or the anticipated net cash inflows attributable to presently owned assets. By contrast, Marxist economics is based on objective facts that can be measured to a “socially required level of accuracy”. The objective facts of a Marxist conceptual framework rest on the theory that capital circulates in three forms: money, commodities to be sold, and commodities to be used in production. Capital, and, therefore assets, are essentially physical (or technical) in nature rather than monetary in nature. Measurement of assets is objective because Marxist theory emphasizes management stewardship and requires historical cost and a strict realization criterion for recognition of revenue. Bryer's argument that the FASB's conceptual framework is “unacceptably subjective” because it is based on “economic value” is misplaced. A careful reading of the FASB's concepts statements suggests that assets represent service-potential, or “use-value” in Marxist terms, and that economic-value is never advocated as a conceptual basis for the measurement of assets. The reason the FASB's conceptual framework is “subjective and vague” is that the FASB lacked the political will to advocate a conceptual preference for any particular measurement method.     

The information content of R&D reductions

An extensive literature shows that R&D intensities and increases are positively related to firm performance, but little research examines the valuation of R&D reductions. This paper fills the void by studying long-term performance following R&D reductions. We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, large R&D cuts are associated with positive future stock returns. This return drift cannot be explained by asset pricing factors, including R&D intensities and R&D increases. We explore two potential economic motives behind R&D reductions: R&D spillover and firm life cycle. We show that operating performance deteriorates immediately before R&D reductions but exhibits no abnormal pattern afterward. While firm growth falls substantially and variability in profitability reduces, firms with low or declining investment opportunities and mature firms outperform. These findings are inconsistent with the spillover hypothesis, but support the life cycle story that firms attempt to resolve overinvestment in R&D that arises over the course of firm life cycle.     

Categorization of mergers and acquisitions using transaction network features

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have occurred among tens of thousands of companies. Categorization of M&A is important to both corporate strategy and academic research. Previous research largely uses case studies and econometric data analysis to classify the motivations and types of M&A. Here, we propose understanding M&A using large-scale data to generate more applicable and generalized results. We use transaction relationships from transaction networks to better understand M&A. Based on detailed pre-analysis, including matching M&A and transaction data from Japan and clustering of transaction networks, we select several M&A observation perspectives. We use two features of transaction networks to categorize M&A cases: betweenness centrality and shortest path length. Betweenness centrality provides a view of the overall business situation from a macro perspective, and shortest path length helps to understand neighboring business environments from a micro perspective. We find several meaningful areas of concentration based on their betweenness centrality values and shortest path lengths. Finally, we re-examine M&A cases in each area, summarizing the trends identified using this categorization method. This study contributes to the M&A literature because it advances quantitative categorization of M&A cases.     

Scale effects of R&D as reflected in earnings and returns

Using returns to scale as a conceptual foundation, we explore how R&D-related earnings performance and earnings variability depend upon firm size. We find that the positive association between the level of future earnings and R&D intensity increases with firm size, and that the positive association between the volatility of future earnings and R&D intensity decreases with firm size, consistent with R&D productivity increasing with scale. We also show that R&D scale is associated with lower market returns, consistent with the idea that R&D investment risk declines with scale.     

Accounting choice and future performance: The case of R&D accounting in France

We examine whether managers’ decisions to capitalize or expense R&D expenditures convey information about the future performance of the firm. Focusing on a French setting where managers can choose to capitalize R&D expenditures under certain circumstances, we find that, after controlling for industry effects, firms that capitalize R&D expenditures spend less on R&D, have more volatile R&D efforts, and are smaller and more leveraged than firms that expense R&D expenditures. We also find that capitalizers capitalize R&D outlays when they need to meet or beat thresholds. Finally, we show that the decision to capitalize R&D is generally associated with a negative or neutral impact on future performance, even after controlling for self-selection. Our results also show that when firms both capitalize and expense R&D expenditures, the expensed portion exhibits a stronger (and negative) relationship with future performance. Market-based tests corroborate these findings. While we cannot unambiguously establish whether our findings imply that management uses R&D capitalization to manage earnings or because it is unable to estimate the earning power of R&D projects, our results suggest that management is unable to truthfully convey information about future performance through its decision to capitalize R&D. Our findings, based on real data as opposed to simulated data, therefore contrast with previous supportive evidence in favor of capitalization in the literature.     

R&D intensity for innovative and adaptive purposes in overseas subsidiaries: Evidence from Japanese multinational enterprises

This paper investigates the causes of R&D activities of overseas subsidiaries using firm-level panel data for Japanese multinationals. We distinguish between overseas innovative R&D (basic and applied research) and adaptive R&D (development and design) and examine how the intensity of each type of R&D is determined, using Amemiya Generalized Least Squares estimation. Our findings suggest that overseas innovative R&D aims at the exploitation of foreign knowledge, whereas adaptive R&D has no such aim. In addition, the size of the host country’s market positively affects both types, whereas geographic distance between the host and the home country has a negative impact. Finally, the parent firm’s knowledge is found to increase the size of overseas adaptive R&D but not innovative R&D. Based on a theoretical model, we interpret this evidence as showing that knowledge of the parent firm is not fully utilized in innovative R&D of its subsidiary.     

Auditor specialization in R&D and clients’ R&D investment-q sensitivity

While research and development (R&D) activities contribute to economic growth via technological innovations, they impose significant uncertainty and agency costs. In this study, we examine the governance role of R&D specialist auditors in affecting clients’ R&D investment decisions. Using a sample of U.S. firms during 2001–2016, we find that R&D specialist auditors’ clients make more efficient investments in the form of a higher R&D investment-q sensitivity. We also find that the reduction in discretionary adjustments of R&D expenses moderates the results. Further, when clients are audited by R&D specialists, their R&D investments are more closely linked to innovative output in subsequent years. Collectively, our results suggest that an auditor’s specialized knowledge induces clients to make better economic decisions.     

The size,concentration and evolution of corporate R&D spending in U.S. firms from 1976 to 2010: Evidence and implications

The use of research and development (R&D) spending as an empirical proxy for managerial discretion, information asymmetry and growth opportunities, is pervasive in empirical corporate finance research. Underlying this is the implicit assumption that firms choose levels of R&D to maximize value, given firm and industry characteristics. An alternative framework views the level of R&D spending as subject to idiosyncratic behavior as managers myopically manipulate R&D expenditures to meet short-term earnings goals. Using aggregate firm and industry level data, we find evidence consistent with the view that R&D is determined by firm and industry characteristics. Time invariant firm and industry fixed effects explain most of the cross-sectional variation in observed R&D spending, while time-varying factors like size, profitability, or market-to-book explain little of the cross-sectional variation. We find that R&D spending continues to grow faster than advertising and capital expenditures. We also find no evidence of managerial myopia as corporate aggregate R&D expenditures are growing faster than aggregate profitability and the number of firms that undertake R&D has increased over the period from 1976 to 2010.     

Multi-stage real option evaluation with double barrier under stochastic volatility and interest rate

Annals of Finance - This paper focuses on valuing R&D projects using a twofold compound real option by including two knock-out barriers. However, the valuation of R&D projects is...     

Green credit regulation,induced R&D and green productivity: Revisiting the Porter Hypothesis

This paper investigates the causal effect of green credit regulation policy on green productivity and revisits the Porter hypothesis. By separating R&D into environmentally induced R&D and production R&D, we find that green credit regulation policy significantly improves green total factor productivity (GTFP) growth rather than input-output TFP. We further show that environmentally induced R&D is the driver of GTFP, while production R&D significantly improves the input-output TFP. Finally, our estimations indicate that internal financing intermediation is used to finance environmental R&D projects due to the high cost of environmental innovation.