Why do firms save cash from cash flows? Evidence from firm‐level estimation of cash–cash flow sensitivities

We construct firm‐level estimates for the cash flow sensitivity of cash (CCFS) by modelling heterogeneous slopes in reduced‐form cash equations. This approach allows identifying firms with a high, low or even negative savings propensity. We find that high CCFS firms have higher income variation, suggesting cash buffering is triggered by income shocks. High CCFS firms do not suffer from financing constraints measured by a wide selection of indicators. Our results suggest that the CCFS is not an adequate indicator to capture financing constraints. Rather, a higher CCFS indicates smoothing of income fluctuations by installing a cash buffer that successfully prevents future income shortfall.     

Do core and non-core cash flows from operations persist differentially in predicting future cash flows?

This study investigates the persistence of cash flow components (core and non-core cash flows) using a cash flow prediction model. By extending the Barth, Cram, and Nelson (Account Rev 76(January):27–58, 2001) model, we examine the role of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows beyond that of accrual components. We propose a cash flow prediction model that decomposes cash flows from operations into core and non-core cash flow components that parallel the presentation and format of operating income from the income statement. Consistent with the AICPA and financial analysts’ recommendations, and as predicted, we find that core and non-core cash flows defined in our paper are differentially persistent in predicting future cash flows; and these cash flow components enhance the in-sample predictive ability of cash flow prediction models. We also analyze the association of in-sample prediction errors with earnings, cash flow and accruals variability. We find that disaggregating cash flows improve in-sample prediction, especially for large firms with high cash flows and earnings variability.

Are analysts' cash flow forecasts useful?

This study provides evidence that the cost of equity capital decreases with the number of analysts who issue both cash flow and earnings forecasts (cash analysts). The evidence also shows that cash analysts reduce information asymmetry and predict long‐term earnings more accurately than analysts who issue only earnings forecasts. Taken together, these findings suggest that cash analysts provide market participants with high‐quality information and, as a result, firms benefit from cash analyst coverage in the form of a reduced cost of equity capital.     

Information asymmetry and investment–cash flow sensitivity

Models of capital market imperfections predict that information asymmetry decreases firm investment and increases the sensitivity of investment expenditures to fluctuations in internal funds. Previous empirical tests of the link between investment and financing decisions have relied on indirect measures of financial constraint due to market frictions. In contrast, we use more direct measures derived from the market microstructure literature. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, our analysis shows that scaled investment expenditures are on average lower and the investment–cash flow sensitivity is greater when the probability of informed trading is high. Our results are robust to alternative measures of informed trading and liquidity, but they are not pervasive in our sample.     

How much cash does your company need?

In late 2001, the directors of Pfizer asked that very question. And with good reason. After its 2000 merger with rival Warner-Lambert, the New York-based pharmaceutical giant found itself sitting on a net cash position of $8 billion, which seemed extraordinarily conservative for a company whose products generated $30 billion in revenues. Most large companies with revenues that healthy would increase leverage, thereby unlocking tremendous value for shareholders. But knowledge-intensive companies like Pfizer, this author argues, are in a class apart. Because their largely intangible assets (like R&D) are highly volatile and cannot easily be valued, they are more vulnerable to financial distress than are firms with a preponderance of tangible assets. To insure against that risk, they need to maintain large positive cash balances. These companies' decisions to run large cash balances is one of the key reasons their shares sustain consistent premiums. Only by investing in their intangible assets can knowledge-based companies hope to preserve the value of those assets. A company that finds itself unable to do so because unfavorable market conditions reduce its operating cash flows will see its share price suffer almost as much as if it were to default on its debts. By the same token, with the right balance sheet, knowledge companies can profitably insure against the risk of failing to sustain value-added investments in difficult times. An optimal capital structure that calls for significant cash balances is certainly at odds with the results of a traditional capital structure analysis, the author demonstrates, but it explains the financial policies of many well-run companies, from Pfizer to Intel to ChevronTexaco.     

Does acquirer cash level predict post-acquisition returns?

This paper investigates whether an acquirer’s pre-announcement cash level can predict post-acquisition returns. Harford (1999, Journal of Finance, 54, 1969–1997) shows that some cash-rich acquirers have lower announcement period returns than other acquirers, suggesting the market partially anticipates poor future performance. This paper shows that the acquirer’s cash level is also strongly and negatively predictive of post-acquisition returns, indicating that the announcement response is incomplete. Post-acquisition return on net operating assets (RNOA) is significantly decreasing in acquirer cash, suggesting that the market responds to subsequent poor operating performance as it is reported. Overall, these results are consistent with the market’s inattention to a less prominent accounting signal (acquirer cash) but attentiveness to a more prominent accounting signal (RNOA), as proposed by Hirshleifer and Teoh (2003, Journal of Accounting Economics, 36, 337–386).

Can long-term performance plans mitigate the negative effects of stock consideration and high cash for acquirers?

Following Travlos (J Finance 42: 943–963, 1987), Loughran and Vijh (J Finance 52: 1765–1790, 1997), Harford (J Finance 54: 1969–1997, 1999), and Oler (Rev Acc Stud 13: 479–511, 2008), we investigate whether acquisitions involving stock consideration and acquirers with high cash levels are associated with poor performance or not. In addition, we investigate whether including a long-term performance plan in top management’s compensation package can mitigate these negative effects. We find that acquirers with a long-term performance plan are less likely to hold a high cash balance and are less likely to use stock consideration, thus avoiding scenarios that are more likely to be value-destructive. Even if an acquirer with a long-term performance plan carries a high cash balance or uses stock, we find that the plan is associated with improved fundamental performance; however, this relationship does not flow through to improved post-acquisition returns.     

Executive stock-based compensation and firms’ cash payout: the role of shareholders’ tax-related payout preferences

We hypothesize that the structure of executive stock-based compensation helps to align managers’ payout choices with shareholders’ tax-related payout preferences. Specifically, stock options, which are not dividend-protected, can deter self-interested executives from using dividends as a form of payout. In contrast, restricted stock, which is dividend-protected, is more likely to induce the use of dividends. Relatedly, shareholders’ preferences for dividends, which are taxed as ordinary income, can depend on the income tax consequences of dividends relative to those of long-term capital gains. To test our hypothesis, we investigate whether the exogenous changes in shareholders’ tax-related payout preferences following the 2003 dividend tax rate reduction result in predictable shifts in executive stock-based compensation and in managers’ payout choices. Consistent with our prediction, we find a positive relation between the increased use of dividends in firms’ payouts and the increased (decreased) use of restricted stock (stock options) in executive compensation, particularly for firms with a greater percentage ownership by individual investors and with lower costs associated with modifying the structure of their compensation plans. Our investigation of the role of shareholders’ tax-related payout preferences in the design of executive stock-based compensation extends the prior literature that has largely focused on the role of incentive contracts in inducing managerial effort, risk taking, and retention.     

Institutional investment horizon and investment–cash flow sensitivity

This paper examines the relevance of institutional investors’ investment horizon, as reflected in the response of firm investment to internal cash flows. We argue that institutional investors with longer investment horizons have greater incentives and efficiencies to engage in effective monitoring. This improved monitoring mitigates asymmetric information and agency problems, and in turn reduces the wedge between the costs of internal and external funds. As a result, the sensitivity of firms’ investment outlays to internal cash flows decreases in the presence of institutional investors with long-term investment horizons. Using a sample of 8402 US firms over the period 1981–2008, we provide empirical evidence consistent with these arguments.     

What do accruals tell us about future cash flows?

Our model, which is adapted from Feltham and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:689–731, 1995) and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) and extends Dechow and Dichev (Account Rev 77:35–59, 2002), characterizes the information about future cash flows reflected in accruals. It reveals investors can extract from accruals information about next period’s economic factor and the transitory part of one component of next period’s cash flow. The extent to which each accrual provides this information depends on whether the accrual aligns future or past cash flows and current period economics and whether it relates to the current or prior period. Thus each type of accrual has a different coefficient in valuation and forecasting cash flows or earnings. Each coefficient combines an information weight reflecting the information that accrual type provides and a multiple reflecting how that information is used in valuation and cash flow and earnings forecasting. The empirical evidence supports our main insight, namely that partitioning accruals based on their role in cash-flow alignment increases their ability to forecast future cash flows and earnings and explain firm value.     

Do REITs use cash reserves efficiently? Evidence from corporate acquisitions

We examine the combined impact of corporate governance and excess cash holdings on the propensity of firms to become bidders and engage in value destroying acquisitions. We focus on the REIT market, due to its unique characteristics caused by regulation and the nature of the industry. The lack of active real estate takeover market should lead to entrenchment and exacerbate agency costs. However, given the mandatory high cash payout for REITs, the absence of takeover market should not cause concerns to shareholders. Our analyses reveal that unlike conventional firms, cash-rich REITs are not more likely to become acquirers and acquisitions by cash-rich REITs are not value decreasing. However, similarly to industrial firms, REITs with higher excess cash and lower insider ownership are more likely to become bidders. We interpret our results to be consistent with the hypothesis that agency problems are less severe in real estate and investors are not averse to use of excess cash by REIT managers on intra-industry acquisitions.     

Discussion of “Executive stock-based compensation and firms’ cash payout: the role of shareholders’ tax-related payout preferences”

Aboody and Kasznik (Rev Acc Stud, this issue, 2008) develop and test cross-sectional predictions about how firms might respond to the 2003 dividend tax cuts. My discussion suggests some alternative firm responses, a restructuring of the main tests to be consistent with the theory and predictions, and an interpretation of the magnitude of the observed associations. Overall, the paper addresses an interesting issue, recognizes that executive compensation is endogenous in this event, and adds to the long literature on dividend payout policy.     

Does free cash flow problem contribute to excess stock return synchronicity?

We investigate whether Jensen’s free cash flow problem contributes to excess stock return synchronicity. We find that low-growth firms with high free cash flow have greater stock return synchronicity. These firms also engage in earnings management to lower their disclosure quality. To the extent that free cash flow for low-growth firms provides corporate insiders an opportunity to extract private control benefit, our findings lend direct and concrete support to Jin and Myers (J Financ Econ, 79:257–292, 2006) prediction that insiders increase opaqueness to capture cash flow beyond the level expected by outsider investors. We identify Jensen’s free cash flow problem as an important driver for stock return synchronicity.     

The effects of operating cash flow disclosure on earnings comparability,analysts' forecasts,and firms’ investment decisions during the Pre-IFRS era

We examine the effects of the availability of operating cash flow (OCF) information disclosed by firms operating in 15 international countries during the pre-IFRS era on: (1) the comparability of these firms' disaggregated earnings to those of U.S. firms for equity valuation purposes, (2) the properties of analysts' earnings forecasts, and (3) the efficiency of firms' investment decisions. We find that the comparability of disaggregated earnings improves after company-disclosed OCF information is available. We also find decreases in analysts' forecast errors and dispersion and a decrease in firms’ tendency to over- or under-invest when they are predisposed to do so.     

Dynamic asset–liability management in a Markov market with stochastic cash flows

This paper provides a general model to investigate an asset–liability management (ALM) problem in a Markov regime-switching market in a multi-period mean–variance (M–V) framework. Emphasis is placed on the stochastic cash flows in both wealth and liability dynamic processes, and the optimal investment and liquidity management strategies in achieving the M–V bi-objective of terminal surplus are evaluated. In this model, not only the asset returns and liability returns, but also the cash flows depend on the stochastic market states, which are assumed to follow a discrete-time Markov chain. Adopting the dynamic programming approach, the matrix theory and the Lagrange dual principle, we obtain closed-form expressions for the efficient investment strategy. Our proposed model is examined through empirical studies of a defined contribution pension fund. In-sample results show that, given the same risk level, an ALM investor (a) starting in a bear market can expect a higher return compared to beginning in a bull market and (b) has a lower expected return when there are major cash flow problems. The effects of the investment horizon and state-switching probability on the efficient frontier are also discussed. Out-of-sample analyses show the dynamic optimal liquidity management process. An ALM investor using our model can achieve his or her surplus objective in advance and with a minimum variance close to zero.     

Local corruption and corporate cash holdings: Sheltering assets or agency conflict?

This study investigates the impact of corruption on corporate cash holdings in China. The political extraction argument predicts that firms might shelter liquid assets to avoid extraction by corrupt officials. Using data on A-shared listed firms between 2007 and 2012, we find that firms located in more corrupt regions hold less cash, supporting this hypothesis. Political resources help to diminish the risk of exploitation, reducing the extent to which liquid assets are sheltered. We find that the negative association between corruption and cash holding is more significant for non-state-owned enterprises (Non-SOEs) than for state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Moreover, the cash holdings of Non-SOEs without political connections are more sensitive to corruption than those of Non-SOEs with political connections. These findings demonstrate that expropriation by corrupt officials is an important factor driving firms to manage liquidity.     

Stock or cash? The trade-offs for buyers and sellers in mergers and acquisitions

In 1988, less than 2% of large deals were paid for entirely in stock; by 1998, that number had risen to 50%. The shift has profound ramifications for shareholders of both the acquiring and acquired companies. In this article, the authors provide a framework and two simple tools to guide boards of both companies through the issues they need to consider when making decisions about how to pay for--and whether to accept--a deal. First an acquirer has to decide whether to finance the deal using stock or pay cash. Second, if the acquirer decides to issue stock, it then must decide whether to offer a fixed value of shares or a fixed number of them. Offering cash places all the potential risks and rewards with the acquirer--and sends a strong signal to the markets that it has confidence in the value not only of the deal but in its own stock. By issuing shares, however, an acquirer in essence offers to share the newly merged company with the stockholders of the acquired company--a signal the market often interprets as a lack of confidence in the value of the acquirer's stock. Offering a fixed number of shares reinforces that impression because it requires the selling stockholders to share the risk that the value of the acquirer's stock will decline before the deal goes through. Offering a fixed value of shares sends a more confident signal to the markets, as the acquirer assumes all of that risk. The choice between cash and stock should never be made without full and careful consideration of the potential consequences. The all-too-frequent disappointing returns from stock transactions underscore how important the method of payment truly is.     

How firms manage their cash flows: an examination of diversification’s effect

We extend recently documented evidence that diversified firms hold significantly less cash than specialized firms to consider differences in how diversified and specialized firms adjust their cash flows to achieve their target cash balance. We find that diversified firms have higher free cash flows as a result of equal operating cash flows and lower investment in comparison to specialized firms. Diversified firms save less cash by placing less reliance on external financing; by issuing less debt and equity, and distributing higher cash dividends. Our findings support the hypothesis that diversified firms are able to hold less precautionary cash as they are in better position to finance investment opportunities internally from operating cash flows.     

Are analysts’ earnings forecasts more accurate when accompanied by cash flow forecasts?

We examine whether analysts’ earnings forecasts are more accurate when they also issue cash flow forecasts. We find that (i) analysts’ earnings forecasts issued together with cash flow forecasts are more accurate than those not accompanied by cash flow forecasts, and (ii) analysts’ earnings forecasts reflect a better understanding of the implications of current earnings for future earnings when they are accompanied by cash flow forecasts. These results are consistent with analysts adopting a more structured and disciplined approach to forecasting earnings when they also issue cash flow forecasts. Finally, we find that more accurate cash flow forecasts decrease the likelihood of analysts being fired, suggesting that cash flow forecast accuracy is relevant to analysts’ career outcomes.