电厂汽轮机油系统冲洗工艺探讨

汽轮机油系统清洁度是保证机组的稳定性和安全性的重要因素之一。解决汽轮机油系统清洁度的问题一直是各电厂老大难问题。要解决这个问题,油系统的冲洗工艺异常重要。通过对汽机油系统的冲洗,使管道及设备的清洁度、油中所含颗粒状杂质的大小、多少等指标满足汽轮发电机设备的安全稳定运行要求。     

作业成本法下采油厂作业增值性研究

在作业成本法下,企业通过对作业进行动态分析,促进企业消除或减少不增值作业,提高增值作业效率,减少资源消耗,提高整个企业的效率和竞争力。在了解作业成本法相关理论基础上,分析了作业增值分析是作业成本法实现成本有效管理的重要环节,结合采油厂对采油厂作业各个作业中心进行了增值性分析。采油厂作业增值性分析使采油厂有效寻求本单位作业中心的增值作业,有针对性地提高增值作业效率,进而提高整个企业效率和竞争力。     

Assessing multi-dimensional performance: environmental and economic outcomes

This study examines economic performance, environmental performance, and regulatory activity for plants in three industries: pulp and paper, oil, and steel. Stochastic frontier production function models show significant deviations from production efficiency. Older plants are less efficient in production, but perform no worse on emissions. Plants spending more on pollution abatement tend to do worse on both production efficiency and emissions. Stricter local regulatory pressure is associated with somewhat lower emissions, but has mixed effects on production efficiency. Positive correlations between SUR residuals for emissions and production efficiency suggest unmeasured plant-level characteristics that drive both economic and environmental performance.

An investment planning model for the electricity sector in Nigeria

In this study the methodology of mixed integer programming is used to deal with investment resource allocation problems that involve economies of scale in the Nigerial economic planning environment. The specific application is to long-term investment decisions in the government-operated electric power supply industry (NEPA). The investment planning problem involves determining the optimal generating plant/transmission mix from among a set of fossil fuel and conventional hydro plants which will meet the demand for electricity in Nigeria over the next three decades at minimum cost. Economies of scale in plant construction makes the investment cost function to be non-linear. However the non-linearity is approximated by a fixed charge function. Alternative price assumptions are made about locally found fuel resources (oil, gas, coal and liguite) to calculate the energy cost of fossil fuel plants. Different investment strategies are then evaluated in terms of the present values of the cost of supplying electricity to meet the required demand.     

浅论新时期国内石油供需形势与发展战略

迅速增长的石油消费需求和国内原油产量的有限,使中国原油供应很大一部分要依靠进口,要想进一步确保中国能源供给尤其是石油安全,通常有三种发展战略可供选择:一是合理并有效利用国际石油资源,继续依赖进口的同时,到国外参与油田开发;二是加紧国内现有主力油田的二次和三次开发,利用现代各种石油开采技术,深层挖掘石油资源;三是加强国内小油田的开发,以缓解主力油田承受的巨大的产能压力。     

The shale oil revolution and the global oil supply curve

We focus on the implications of the shale oil boom for the global supply of oil. In order to derive testable implications, we introduce a simple stylized model with two producers, one facing low production costs and one higher production costs but potentially lower adjustment costs, competing à la Stackelberg. We find that the supply function is flatter for the high cost producer and that the supply function for shale oil producers becomes more responsive to demand shocks when adjustment costs decline. On the empirical side, we apply an instrumental variable approach using estimates of demand-driven oil price changes derived from a standard structural VAR of the oil market. A main finding is that global oil supply is rather vertical, with a short-term elasticity around 0.05. A rolling sample reveals that the shale oil boom does not appear to have fundamentally changed the contours of global oil production, but there is evidence for the oil supply curve to become more vertical in Saudi Arabia and more price responsive in the United States.     

THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short‐run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

石油企业服务营销策略研究

随着石油销售市场竞争日趋激烈,服务营销逐步成为石油销售企业的竞争利器。本文对石油销售企业服务营销现状进行了分析,指出了目前石油销售企业实施服务营销过程中存在的诸多问题。结合石油销售企业特色,提出相应策略,以期望通过对石油销售企业服务营销策略的提升,提高企业的核心竞争力,使企业在未来的竞争中处于优势地位。     

AN EMPIRICAL GROWTH MODEL FOR MAJOR OIL EXPORTERS

This paper develops a long‐run output relation for a major oil‐exporting economy where the oil income‐to‐output ratio remains sufficiently high over a prolonged period. It extends the stochastic growth model developed in Binder and Pesaran (1999) by including oil exports as an additional factor in the capital accumulation process. The paper distinguishes between the two cases where the growth of oil income, g^o, is less than the natural growth rate (the sum of the population growth, n, and the growth of technical progress, g), and when g^o ≥ g + n. Under the former, the effects of oil income on the economy's steady growth rate will vanish eventually, while under the latter oil income enters the long‐run output equation with a coefficient which is equal to the share of capital if it is further assumed that the underlying production technology can be represented by a Cobb–Douglas production function. The long‐run theory is tested using quarterly data on nine major oil economies. Overall, the test results support the long‐run theory, with the existence of long‐run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil income established for six of the nine economies considered. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price

Baumeister and Kilian (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(3), 338–351) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real‐time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil as a global price benchmark, we extend consideration to the North Sea‐based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017:12. We model the oil price futures curve using a factor‐based Nelson–Siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data. We find that the combined forecasts for Brent are as effective as for other oil price measures. The extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by Baumeister and Kilian yields similar results to those reported in their paper. Also, the futures‐based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons.     

THE ROLE OF TIME‐VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHANGES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time-frequency causality and dependence structure between crude oil,EPU and Chinese industry stock: Evidence from multiscale quantile perspectives

This article investigates the time-frequency causality and dependence structure of Chinese industry stock returns on crude oil shocks and China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) across quantiles over the period from January 2001 to June 2021. We use wavelet-based decomposition series to establish a multiscale causality-in-quantiles test and a quantile-on-quantile regression approach to reveal the complicated relationships involving crude oil, EPU and stock returns. Our empirical results are as follows: First, the predictability of crude oil and EPU on industry stock returns is significantly strong under extreme market conditions. Second, the explanatory ability of EPU on industry stock returns in the long term is stronger than EPU’s ability to explain short term returns. Third, the impacts of crude oil and EPU on industry stock returns remain remarkably asymmetric across quantile levels. Finally, nonenergy-intensive industries are also affected by crude oil shocks, but less than energy-intensive industries. Overall, these empirical findings can provide implications for policymakers to stabilize stock markets and investors to hedge the potential risks from crude oil and EPU.     

Urban Households’ Cooking Oil and Fat Consumption Patterns in Turkey: Quality Vs. Quantity

This article investigates households’ cooking oil and fat consumption patterns in Turkey using data from household budget surveys. The almost ideal demand system was employed to analyze demand parameters and elasticities for major five types of oil. Prices were adjusted for quality and the demographic translation method was used to incorporate to demographic variables. Finally, the two stage generalized demand model was used to take into account censory of the dependent variable. Results showed that higher-income and higher-educated consumers consume more quality and healthy oil such as olive oil than lower-income and less educated consumers. According to income elasticities, lower-income consumers are more sensitive to income changes compare to higher-income consumers. Moreover, lower-income consumers are more prices sensitive to olive oil and corn oil than are higher-income consumers.     

影响转油站使用寿命的因素分析和调整措施

为延长转油站的使用寿命,一是修复容器内部结构,完善容器贮存、缓冲、分离的性能;二是提高加热炉效率,加强对加热炉腐蚀的控制;三是转油站之间输油泵进行合理匹配,转油站设置卧式容器除沙装置,对加热炉烟囱安装拉力缓冲器。     

How does investor attention matter for crude oil prices and returns? Evidence from time-frequency quantile causality analysis

This paper studies the time–frequency, nonlinear quantile relationship between investor attention (GSVI) and crude oil over the period from January 2000 to April 2020. To do so, the wavelet coherency, wavelet-based causality-in-quantiles test and quantile-on-quantile method are employed. The results indicate that first, the correlation between investor attention and crude oil is relatively high, and the highly correlated regions are concentrated from 8 to 16 months. In most cases, the GSVI is negatively correlated with the crude oil market. Additionally, under extreme market conditions, the explanatory ability is stronger than in the normal market, and it is greater in the low-frequency domain than in the high-frequency domain. Finally, investor attention has an apparent asymmetric impact on crude oil prices and returns at each scale, displaying a positive effect on the low quantiles of crude oil but a negative effect on the high quantiles across all quantiles of the GSVI. In the short term, when crude oil prices and returns are in a bear market, the larger volume of the GSVI has a greater impact on them. Moreover, the impact becomes greatest under extreme market conditions.     

当前石油企业物资管理存在的问题及解决对策探析

随着石油企业改革的深化,石油企业一方面不断的发展,市场也越来越广阔;另一方面,石油企业面临的急需解决的问题也越来越多。而石油企业物资的有效化管理,资源的优化性配置对于提高石油企业的经济效益有着极其重要的作用。     

What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies

We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real oil price and in oil production. Furthermore, geographical regions respond differently to adverse oil market shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than countries in Asia and South America. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

低流压高泵效井成因分析及治理措施

低流压、高泵效的油井一方面增加了杆管的疲劳损耗,降低杆管的使用寿命,减短了油井的检泵周期,增加开采成本;另一方面会降低动态控制图合理率,影响油井管理指标,极大影响了油田正常生产与油田生产管理。科学有效地对低流压、高泵效井进行成因分析与制定恰当的治理措施对于油田健康和谐发展具有重要意义。笔者在文中通过对理论泵效公式剖析及实例分析,分析了造成油井低流压高泵效的原因,并在此基础上提出了相应治理措施。     

Oil prices,stock returns,and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States

Employing the diagonal BEKK model as well as the dynamic impulse response functions, this study investigates the time-varying trilateral relationships among real oil prices, exchange rate changes, and stock market returns in China and the U.S. from February 1991 to December 2015. We highlight several key observations: (i) oil prices respond positively and significantly to aggregate demand shocks; (ii) positive oil supply shocks adversely and significantly affect the Chinese stock market; (iii) oil price shocks persistently and significantly impact the trade-weighted US dollar index negatively; (iv) the US and China stock markets correlate positively just as the dollar index and the exchange rate does; (v) a significant parallel inverse relation exists between the US stock market and the dollar and between the China stock market and the exchange rate; and (vi) the Chinese stock market is more volatile and responsive to aggregate demand and oil price shocks than the US stock market in recent years.     

成品油管道企业场站安全生产管理

应用管道运输成品油具有非常多的优势,其成为当下成品油运输中比较受欢迎的运输方式。但是管道运输中存在一个非常大的问题,即运输成品油过程中的安全问题。一是环境会影响管道安全性;二是成品油作为石油化工产品本身存在易燃易炸的特点,并且其挥发的气体大多有毒。为了保障成品油运输的安全性,论文分析了成品油管道企业场站安全生产管理存在的风险以及容易造成的安全事故,并针对这些隐患提出了解决方案,以期加强成品油管道企业的安全生产管理,保障成品油的运输。