Real exchange rate,stationarity, and economic fundamentals

Using monthly data for the US/UK real exchange rate over the period 1921–2002, we find evidence that the mean reverting tendency of the real exchange rate is stochastic, and regime-dependent. There is one regime over which PPP holds as a long-run equilibrium relation, i.e. a stationary PPP regime, and another regime over which PPP does not hold, i.e. a non-stationary PPP regime. The transition from the non-stationary to the stationary regime is found to be affected by the real interest rate differential, and by the volatility of the nominal exchange rate. The real output differential does not appear to affect the transition probability.     

Majority Shareholder Ownership and Real Earnings Management: Evidence from Korea

This article examines the influence of majority shareholder ownership on real earnings management. It investigates whether there is a conflict between or an alignment of majority and minority shareholders' interests. If majority shareholders' interests are aligned with those of minority shareholders, a greater majority shareholder ownership lowers real earnings management. On the other hand, if they are not aligned, majority shareholders' attempts to exploit minority shareholders will increase real earnings management. This study does not find a systematic relationship between majority shareholder ownership and real earnings management. However, real earnings management significantly decreases in the upward earnings management incentive bracket as majority shareholder ownership increases. This occurs primarily because majority shareholders are more sensitive to upward real earnings management, which has a negative effect on future performance. These results suggest that the larger the ownership of majority shareholders, the more they play a positive role in mitigating real earnings management. This positive role is only effective in the post‐Asian economic crisis period. These results may suggest that the economic crisis in Korea helped majority shareholders more conscious of the long‐term costs of real earnings management. These findings support the convergence‐of‐interests hypothesis, providing evidence by investigating real earnings management instead of accruals‐based earnings management.     

房地产价格的托宾Q效应检验——基于PVAR模型的分析

本文基于面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,利用中国2002-2008年的省际面板数据,分析了房地产投资与托宾Q值的关系。结果表明,从全国层面看,房地产投资对托宾Q的冲击存在一个很小的正向响应,托宾Q对房地产投资的解释比例很小;从区域层面看,东、中部地区房地产投资的托宾Q效应失效,仅西部地区房地产投资对托宾Q冲击有较小的正向响应。这说明我国当前的房地产市场具有明显的非理性特征,特别是东部、中部地区尤为明显,应加强对囤积土地等套利投机行为的治理及对金融资本投放和使用的监管。     

Are the stock and real estate markets integrated in China?

This paper examines the dynamic short-run and long-run co-movement between the real estate and stock markets in China by employing a continuous wavelet method. We use gross domestic product and M2 (broad money supply) as control variables to eliminate the common factors of the two markets and to identify the real nexus between them. The empirical results show that the co-movement between real estate and stock prices is weak in the short run, except during the financial crisis period. Since the stock market is highly volatile, while real estate prices are relatively stable, the two markets are less correlated in the short run. The results also show that real estate prices affect stock prices in the long run, which supports the existence of a credit-price effect in China. Real estate prices remained very high in most time periods. Enterprises and individuals can obtain funds from bank loans to invest in the stock market, thus raising stock prices. These findings indicate that the two markets are generally segmented in the short run but are integrated in the long run. The stabilization of the real estate market is critical for stability in the stock market, but not vice versa. Additionally, investments in the two markets may not provide a high level of risk dispersion in the long run in China.

     

中国城市房地产市场健康标准及实证研究

准确判断房地产市场健康状况是正确实施房地产调控的前提,但国内外并没有一套判断房地产市场健康状况系统的工具,因而关于房地产的发展形势常常引起争议.论文试图从房地产市场与城市总体经济之间合理关系出发,设计一组指标体系,利用房地产与宏观经济对应的相关历史和整体的数据,建立46个经验模型,求得一套房地产市场的多维度健康标准.将健康标准值与城市的实际值进行比对发现:35个大中城市房地产市场均不健康.同时实证研究也较好地验证了研究思路的正确性和健康标准的可信性.     

Assessment Lags and Property Tax Impacts

Abstract . A major administrative problem of the property tax is the difficulty of maintaining current assessments. If real estate is not reassessed as market values change, then the real tax rates on market value will diverge from the statutory rates. Within any taxing jurisdiction those properties with the highest rate of increase in market value will be taxed at the lowest real rate, while those with the lowest (including negative) rate of increase in market value will be taxed at the highest real rate. This investigation develops a straightforward method for calculating differentials in effective tax rates and describes the economic impacts of these differentials.     

Real Options, International Entry Mode Choice and Performance

abstract    Recent scholarship suggests that combining insights from real option theory with transaction cost economics may improve decision-making models. In response to this suggestion we develop and test a model of international entry mode choice that draws from both perspectives. Examining samples of Dutch and Greek firms entering Central and Eastern European markets, we found that adding real option variables to a transaction cost model significantly improved its explanatory power. Additionally, firms that used the combined real option/transaction cost predicted choices had significantly higher levels of subsidiary performance satisfaction than firms that did not. Our results suggest that effective managerial decision-making may involve more than mere transaction cost minimization considerations; real option value creation insights also appear to influence the success of decision outcomes.     

Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-exporting countries

We assess the determinants of equilibrium real exchange rates in a sample of oil-dependent countries. Our data cover OPEC countries from 1975 to 2005. Utilising pooled mean group and mean group estimators, we find that the price of oil has a clear, statistically significant effect on real exchange rates in our group of oil-producing countries. Higher oil price lead to appreciation of the real exchange rate. Elasticity of the real exchange rate with respect to the oil price is typically between 0.4 and 0.5, but may be even larger depending on the specification. Real per capita GDP, on the other hand, does not appear to have a clear effect on real exchange rate. This latter result contrasts starkly with many earlier papers on real exchange rate determination, emphasising the unique position of oil-dependent countries.

Fisher equations inverted and not

Regressions of the realized real after-tax interest rate on theex post rate of inflation are shown to be incapable of discriminating between the competing hypotheses that the real after-tax interest rate is not effected by expected inflation due to the substitutability between debt and equity (the Fisher hypothesis); and, that the nominal after-tax interest rate is not effected by expected inflation due to the substitutability between money and debt (the inverted Fisher hypothesis). An alternative regression which is so capable, is shown to reject the inverted and support the original Fisher hypothesis.     

房地产价格的托宾Q效应检验——基于PVAR模型的分析

本文基于面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型,利用中国2002-2008年的省际面板数据,分析了房地产投资与托宾Q值的关系。结果表明,从全国层面看,房地产投资对托宾Q的冲击存在一个很小的正向响应,托宾Q对房地产投资的解释比例很小;从区域层面看,东、中部地区房地产投资的托宾Q效应失效,仅西部地区房地产投资对托宾Q冲击有较小的正向响应。这说明我国当前的房地产市场具有明显的非理性特征,特别是东部、中部地区尤为明显,应加强对囤积土地等套利投机行为的治理及对金融资本投放和使用的监管。     

Testing the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates

This paper tests the random walk hypothesis for the log-differenced monthly US real exchange rates versus some major currencies. The tests we use are variance ratio test, Durlauf's (1991) spectral domain tests and Andrews and Ploberger's ( 1996) optimal tests. The variance ratio test is calculated by using Andrews' (1991) optimal data-dependent methods. Finite sample properties of these tests are also reported. Because the results of applying these tests to the real exchange rates are occasionally inconsistent, tests to synthesize these test results are proposed and applied to the real exchange rates. These tests have often been used in meta-analysis, but have not previously been used to synthesize different test results. Simulation results for these tests are also reported. For the real exchange rate data from the post-Bretton Woods period, these tests reject the null only for the Swiss franc. But when longer-horizon data are used, there is more evidence of serial correlations in the log-differenced real exchange rates. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

后金融危机条件下我国房地产证券化研究\n——基于美国房地产证券化实践的启示

我国房地产市场发展过程中现存问题的背后是房地产金融市场风险.美国的房地产资产证券化历程从正反两方面都给中国寻找有效控制和分散风险的方法及中国房地产金融创新等提供了很好的借鉴和启示.我国房地产金融市场建设总体上应遵循"长短结合,疏堵并举"的原则.短期有"堵"有"疏";长期以"疏"为主.     

商品房认购书的性质与法律效力

认购书通常不能直接构成商品房买卖合同,其在本质上为"将行谈判的预约"。认购书不以预售许可为有效要件,其核心内容为使开发商和认购人负担诚信谈判之义务,但双方并不因此负担必须缔约之义务。在双方诚信谈判仍不能达成商品房买卖合同时,认购书自动失去其效力。若一方当事人违反诚信谈判义务导致商品房买卖合同不能缔结,对方不能强制其实际履行认购书,而只能追究其违反预约之责任,亦即商品房买卖合同不成立之缔约过失责任。     

投资房地产可以对冲通货膨胀风险吗——以中国内地为例

本文基于费雪效应,考察了中国内地过去20余年间通货膨胀率与房地产收益率的同期关系、长期均衡关系,以及在不同收益率条件分布下二者的关系。结果表明,短期内投资房地产不能对冲通货膨胀,但从长期来看,投资房地产却是对冲通货膨胀的有效工具。然而在房地产收益率处于"极端"情形下,盲目投资房地产不但不会抵御通货膨胀风险,还会带来更大的损失。     

浅议房地产项目可行性研究的现实意义

房地产项目可行性研究是房地产企业建设前期投资决策阶段的一项重要工作,是保证房地产建设项目以最小的成本换取最佳经济效益的科学方法,房地产项目可行性研究工作对房地产企业有着重要现实意义。     

基于实际活动操控的盈余管理研究——国外文献述评及启示

基于应计利润的盈余管理研究过去一直是盈余管理研究的主流,但实务界日益呈现的证据表明,应计利润操控并非盈余管理的首要方式,管理层在面临实现特定盈余目标的动机、受限的应计利润会计自由裁量权、后安然时代国际上从紧的会计准则、管理审查和股东法律诉讼的风险时,都可能通过实际操控影响现金流从而管理盈余。对实际活动操控的盈余管理行为的探索能够拓展当前有限的盈余管理研究,有助干改善公司治理、提升盈余信息质量,促进证券市场更健康有序地发展。为此,本文首先对国际现有实际活动操控研究相关文献进行了梳理,具体包括实际活动操控方式识别的相关研究、实际活动操控经济后果及投资者反应的相关研究、应计项目操控与实际活动操控关系的相关研究;然后着重分析了实际活动操控手段的四种计量模型,最后总结了当前真实盈余管理研究的主要成果及局限性,为拓展我国的真实盈余管理研究及提高盈余质量提供了方向。     

Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets

The behaviour of real exchange rates (relative to the US dollar) is examined using monthly data obtained from the black markets for foreign exchange of eight Asian developing countries. The data span is 31 years. The black market real exchange rates do not show excess volatility during the recent float which is in sharp contrast to the results reported elsewhere. Unit root tests in heterogeneous panels and variance ratio tests confirm their stationarity. Thus, we find support for PPP but not for the ‘survivorship’ bias (Froot and Rogoff, 1995 ). There is little evidence of segmented trends. Issues raised by Rogoff ( 1996 )—of whether PPP would hold across countries with differing growth experience—and Lothian and Taylor ( 1996 )—of whether the degree of relative price volatility may bias results in favour of mean reverting real exchange rates—are addressed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于促进房地产业稳定健康发展的对策研究

房地产业是国民经济中的重要产业之一,在我国经济、社会生活中发挥着重要的作用。但房地产业发展中也存在房地产价格总体偏高、房地产开发结构性矛盾突出、房地产市场操作不规范等问题。因此,对房地产业进行宏观调控、促进房地产业稳定健康发展,对于稳定经济、保障民生问题的解决是非常必要的。     

实物期权在房地产投资估价中的应用

与传统的投资决策方法相比,实物期权方法不仅考虑到房地产投资的不确定性带来的风险,还体现了其柔性管理和战略投资的价值。介绍了实物期权理论的概念与分类,将实物期权理论引入房地产投资估价中,并通过等待期权实例分析说明了其在实际中的应用。