A change of focus: Stock market reclassification in the UK

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of a change of focus by a firm, as signified by a firm's stock market reclassification. It distinguishes between a firm's sector reclassification motivated by information specific to that firm and one that results from the redefinition and reorganisation of a sector. The direction of the price effects following reclassification depends significantly upon this distinction. Furthermore, a stock's return comovement with the FTSE All-Share Index is affected by its reclassification into a new sector, consistent with the allocation of stocks into categories by investors. Reclassification can induce common factors in the returns to stocks in an index without there being any change in these stocks’ fundamental cash flows.     

Financial reporting of European banks during the GFC: a pitch

This short paper applies the pitch template developed by Faff (2015a), for a proposed accounting research project on financial reporting of European banks and the global financial crisis. I begin by giving a brief background to writing the pitch. I then give a brief commentary on my pitch, followed by a few key personal reflections on the pitch exercise itself.     

Cost of monitoring and risk taking in the money market funds industry

Increasing the cost associated with gathering information can hamper the monitoring activity of the market even when information remains public. Using the 2015 US money market funds (MMFs) reform as a quasi-natural experiment, I find a positive effect of removing information requirements over credit ratings on the allocation by MMFs toward securities rated as second tier. The effect is driven by monitored MMFs catering to retail investors and by monitored MMFs that do not voluntarily report credit ratings after the reform. The verfied increase in the relative demand by MMFs for second tier securities is associated with a decrease in the spread paid at issuance by second tier commercial paper.     

An Individual’s Chosen Retirement Age: When is the Economically Feasible Retirement Age Chosen over the Anchor Provided by Known Others?

Abstract

Do individuals make rational, well-planned retirement age decisions? Evidence is not conclusive; some decisions seem to be quite reasonable, while others, including the long-term trends generated by these decisions, seem irrational. In order to be able to predict and influence these important decisions, the process leading up to making them needs to be better understood. The process an individual uses to make a retirement decision may be influenced by a rational allocation of money, time, and effort, as suggested by a utility-maximizing Household Production approach. Alternately, the decision process may be strongly influenced by an anchor, defined by the retirement ages chosen by friends, neighbors, relatives, and colleagues, as suggested by Anchoring and Prospect Theory. Studies investigating anchoring and risk-seeking or risk-aversion behavior, which results when a target is seen as a loss or a gain from the anchor, have found that individuals make irrational decisions under many different circumstances. A set of retirement decision propositions, which hypothesize that the heuristic of Anchoring and the resulting cognitive biases described by Prospect Theory will influence the chosen retirement age, are developed in this paper. Retirement information provided by the employer is a possible moderator that may reduce the influence of the anchor on the retirement decision; a set of moderator hypotheses are also developed in this paper. Propositions strongly supported by existing research predict that, unless sufficient information regarding retirement issues is used by an individual, he or she is likely to choose an inappropriate retirement age.     

"省直管县"财政体制改革模式探讨——以湖南为例

"省直管县"财政体制改革是地方政府从政府规模、层级及财政关系等层面实行的一次深远变革,也是地方政府突破中央权力设置的制度壁垒而获得创新效率的一个难得契机,湖南省应从实际出发探索建立地方新型财政管理模式和地方公共产品供应模式.     

Impact of partial control on policies enacted by partial targets

Numerous studies have shown that the valuation effects of corporate policies are conditioned on corporate control. A partial acquisition serves as a unique form of corporate control that has not been thoroughly researched as a control mechanism. When firms are partially acquired, the impact of their subsequent corporate policies may be affected by the degree of control imposed by the partial acquirer. Our primary objective is to test this hypothesis by (1) measuring valuation effects of the partial target and partial acquirer in response to policies enacted by the partially acquired firm (after becoming a partial target), and (2) conducting a comprehensive cross-sectional analysis for each policy which incorporate proxies for the degree of control by the partial acquirer. We find that partial targets and partial acquirers experience significant valuation effects in response to some policies enacted by the target. We also find that the valuation effects on a partial target in response to its subsequent policies are commonly conditioned by the degree of the partial acquirer's control.     

Is investment decision-making influenced by perceptions relating to auditors’ client dependence and amount of audit fees?

The objectives of this study are to examine whether investing decisions are affected by knowledge about the auditor's revenue dependence on a client and whether the amount spent by a company on audit fees affects decisions to invest in the company. A behavioral experiment is conducted where risk assessments and investing decisions are made for four hypothetical investing scenarios. The study finds that investing decisions are affected by knowledge about an auditor's revenue dependence on a client, but are not affected by knowledge about the size of a client's audit fees.     

The effects of agglomeration on tax competition: evidence from a two-regime spatial panel model on French data

This article studies how agglomeration economies affect tax competition between local jurisdictions. We develop a theoretical model with two main testable predictions: in a setting where agglomeration forces lessen the responsiveness of capital to tax, high-regime agglomeration jurisdictions should adopt a rent-taxing behavior, and they should react less to their neighbors’ tax policies. The panel dataset spans the period from 1995 to 2007 and focuses on the local business taxes set at the French mid-subnational jurisdiction level of départements. First, instrumental variables estimates indicate that attractive jurisdictions capture a significant part of firms’ agglomeration rent by levying higher tax rates. An increase by 1% of the localization economies indicator (a specialization index) leads to increasing the business tax rate by 0.43%. Second, local tax setting behaviors are characterized by a mimetic behavior, with best response functions that slope upwards. We propose a two-agglomeration-regime spatial lag model to estimate through ML the relationship between tax competition and attractiveness. Our main result shows that both are linked and tax mimicry is less pronounced if a jurisdiction is agglomerated. Specifically, in response to a decrease in the tax rate of neighboring local governments by 1%, local governments with strong agglomeration economies reduce their tax rate by 0.4% against 0.6% for local government characterized by a low-agglomeration regime. We show that the classical one-size-fits-all-case of a single regime of agglomeration suffers from a 40% downward bias for low-agglomeration jurisdictions. We draw the link to policy praxis by discussing the optimal design of equalization schemes.     

Bayesian and Bühlmann credibility for phase-type distributions with a univariate risk parameter

Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Bühlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Bühlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in the context of a gamma prior, and illustrated by simulated data in a series of examples.     

Estimating the potential impact of requiring a stand-alone board-level risk committee

Motivated by the requirement under the Dodd-Frank Act that all large bank holding companies create a stand-alone, board-level risk committee, this paper investigates the association between such a committee and regulatory risk both before and during the financial crisis. I focus the analysis on the set of banks that did not have a risk committee in place prior to the Dodd-Frank Act, as these are the banks that were most affected by the regulation. I find that matched control banks with a risk committee in place had higher capital ratios during the financial crisis, but lower capital ratios during more stable economic conditions relative to the banks without a risk committee. This paper contributes to the literature by narrowly investigating the effects a board-level risk committee, by focusing on a risk measure that is of interest to the regulators who implemented the new regulation, and by documenting that this association changes over time which highlights the importance of estimating the effects of new regulations across different economic conditions.     

The Role of Collateral in Entrepreneurial Finance

Abstract:  Previous research has suggested collateral has the role of sorting entrepreneurs either by observed risk or by private information. In order to test these roles, this paper develops a model which incorporates a signalling process (sorting by observed risk) into the design of an incentive-compatible menu of loan contracts which works as a self-selection mechanism (sorting by private information). It then tests this Sorting by Signalling and Self-Selection Model, using the 1998 US Survey of Small Business Finances. It reports for the first time that: high type entrepreneurs are more likely to pledge collateral and pay a lower interest rate; and entrepreneurs who transfer good signals enjoy better contracts than those transferring bad signals. These findings suggest that the Sorting by Signalling and Self-Selection Model sheds more light on entrepreneurial debt finance than either the sorting-by-observed-risk or the sorting-by-private information paradigms on their own.     

Explaining abnormal returns in stock markets: An alpha-neutral version of the CAPM

This paper develops a behavioural asset pricing model in which traders are not fully rational as is commonly assumed in the literature. The model derived is underpinned by the notion that agents’ preferences are affected by their degree of optimism or pessimism regarding future market states. It is characterized by a representation consistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model, augmented by a behavioural bias that yields a simple and intuitive economic explanation of the abnormal returns typically left unexplained by benchmark models. The results we provide show how the factor introduced is able to absorb the “abnormal” returns that are not captured by the traditional CAPM, thereby reducing the pricing errors in the asset pricing model to statistical insignificance.     

Political connection and cost of debt: Some Malaysian evidence

This paper investigates the association between Malaysian politically connected (PCON) firms and the cost of debt. We extend previous research that finds Malaysian PCON firms are perceived as being of higher risk by the market, and by audit firms, by providing evidence that lenders also perceive these firms as being of higher risk. We also find that PCON firms have a significantly (1) higher extent of leverage, (2) higher likelihood of reporting a loss, (3) higher likelihood of having negative equity, and (4) higher likelihood of being audited by a big audit firm. We suggest that PCON firms are charged higher interest rates by lenders as a result of efficient contracting given their higher inherent risks. Additionally, we find that CEO duality present in PCON firms is perceived by lenders as being more risky, and that a higher proportion of independent directors on the audit committee mitigate this perceived risk.     

Financial Economists' Roundtable Statement on THE STRUCTURE OF SECURITIES MARKETS

Market practitioners, regulators, and economists are now debating the merits of a national market system—a single, fully integrated securities market that would be coordinated by a central computer and mandated by the SEC. This brief statement, signed by 29 distinguished financial economists, argues that such a system is a badidea. The multiplicity of U.S. markets is a sign of innovation and vibrant competition, not a problem that requires regulatory intervention. As a variety of markets with different technologies and trading procedures vie for somewhat different groups of customers with different needs, the result is competing market centers—registered exchanges (such as NYSE and AMEX) with designated specialists; NASDAQ with competing dealers; third market dealers in listed securities; and alternative trading systems (regulated as brokers) serving institutional investors or providing on-line trading to individual investors. Moreover, the fact that the different U.S. markets are linked in various ways and degrees—for example, by information and by private order routing systems of brokers and markets—should caution us against viewing market "fragmentation" as a public policy problem in need of a solution     

An Analysis of ASX Price Queries

This study examines 'no news' responses to stock price queries issued by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). We find strong evidence that the pre-query changes in price are driven by informed traders rather than by speculators. First, there is only a partial reversion in prices following a 'no news' response by a company in receipt of a price query. Second, the adverse selection component of market spreads rise during the immediate pre-query period and then decline following the company response. Last, the mean level of institutional shareholder ownership increases in the period immediately prior to an ASX query of a price increase.     

Testing for structural breaks in correlations: Does it improve Value-at-Risk forecasting?

In this paper, we modify the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) model and its dynamic counterpart, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model by combining them with a pairwise test for constant correlations, a test for a constant correlation matrix, and a test for a constant covariance matrix. We compare these models to their plain counterparts with respect to the accuracy for forecasting the Value-at-Risk of financial portfolios by a set of distinct backtests. In an empirical horse race of these models based on multivariate portfolios, our study shows that correlation models can be improved by approaches modified by tests for structural breaks in co-movements in several settings.     

Statistical rehabilitation of improper correlation matrices

The simplest way to describe the dependence for a set of financial assets is their correlation matrix. This correlation matrix can be improper when it is specified element-wise. We describe a new method for obtaining a positive definite correlation matrix starting from an improper one. The expert's opinion and trust in each pairwise correlation is described by a beta distribution. Then, by combining these individual distributions, a joint distribution over the space of positive definite correlation matrices is obtained using Cholesky factorization, and its mode constitutes the new proper correlation matrix. The optimization is complemented by a visual representation of the entries that were most affected by the legalization procedure. We also sketch a Bayesian approach to the same problem.     

Interbank contagion and resolution procedures: inspecting the mechanism

This paper develops a network model of a stylized banking system in which banks are connected to one another through interbank claims, which allows us to study the diffusion of default avalanches triggered by an exogenous shock under a number of different assumptions on the degree of interconnectedness, level of capitalization, liquidity buffers, the size of the interbank market and fire-sales. We expand upon the existing literature by comparing two alternative resolution mechanisms: (i) liquidations triggered by either illiquidity or insolvency-related distress implying asset sales and compensation of creditors; and (ii) a bail-in mechanism avoiding bank closure by forcing a recapitalization provided by bank creditors. Our model speaks to how contagion dynamics unravel via illiquidity-driven defaults in the first case and higher-order losses in the latter one. Within this framework, we show how the liquidity risk externality can be resolved, and we put forward a macro-criterion to assess the adequacy of the liquidity ratio introduced with Basel III.     

商业银行集中采购管理模式探讨

商业银行集中采购管理模式成为近来国内各银行关注的热点话题之一,也引起了理论界的研究兴趣。本文首先对商业银行集中采购进行了必要的理论分析,对商业银行集中采购与政府采购的异同进行了比较。然后对当前我国商业银行集中采购的现状进行了描述,指出由于受传统采购模式的影响,存在的主要问题是资源配置权力分散化。因此,必须按照“职能分设、权限划分、专业管理、相互制衡”的设计思路,建立科学的集中采购组织体系。在此基础上,本文提出了建立采购物流管理部和采购中心的设想,并对配套的集中采购规章制度体系、采购权力制衡体系、信息技术体系进行了研究,提出了相应的实施步骤。     

Principles‐Based Reasoning about Accounting Estimates

This article proposes a key principle and related concepts for reasoning about accounting estimates. The reasoning is consistent with a principles‐based professional judgment framework proposed by Ross Skinner and the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland. The principle deals with reasonable ranges and related risk assessments in the audit of accounting estimates. It does so by using concepts first introduced by Boritz and Skinner and updates them for the requirements of CAS/ISA No. 540 and International Financial Reporting Standards. The article identifies the conditions for the existence of the benchmark ranges proposed by Smieliauskas in identifying fairly presented estimates. The need for a professional judgment framework and related guidance has been recognized recently by the International Federation of Accountants, a 2010 EU Green Paper, and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board as a result of challenges auditors have been facing in the current reporting environment. This recognition echoes calls first made by Ross Skinner in his pioneering 1995 article, and reinforced by the FASB/IASB 2006 proposal for principles‐based accounting standards.