拉弗曲线的深度分析--兼析中国个人所得税制的政策涵义

目前,中国贫富差距越来越大,已对社会经济发展构成不利.个人所得税应成为再分配的调节工具之一,适当的个人所得税边际税率机制并不会像想象的那样伤害效率.但强调效率的人会以拉弗曲线为依据,主张降低个人所得税边际税率.本文对拉弗曲线进行了较深入的分析,证明拉弗曲线在说明个人所得税边际税率与税收之间的关系时,存在一定的理论缺陷和局限性.中国个人所得税制应该加重高收入者税负,尽量不伤害中间阶层,减轻低收入者税负.     

Taxation and Laffer Effects on Employment and Growth

Some dangerous short- and long-term ambiguities of fiscal policies arise from the belief that Laffer effects may be generated from deficit-financed tax cuts able to stimulate aggregate demand. However, even in a supply-side framework, fiscal illusion prevents a rational perception of the effectiveness of Laffer-oriented fiscal measures. The ambiguity of the Laffer effect led to an important series of studies of Francesco Forte, designed to disclose and empirically test its interactions with short- and long-term fiscal policies on gross domestic product (GDP) growth and on other relevant macroeconomic variables. We discuss, under the Laffer perspective, some of Francesco Forte’s studies related to fiscal policy effects on the labour market and GDP growth.     

Enrollment and Curriculum: A Laffer Curve Analysis

When a college or graduate school toughens its curriculum, entry requirements, or graduation requirements, generally two opposite effects on enrollment will occur. First, because the graduating students have learned more and can signal to employers that they are more able, they can command higher starting wages, and this enhances enrollment. Second, the pool of students who are both eligible to enroll and able to complete the program is diminished, having a negative effect on enrollment. The resulting curve depicting enrollment as a function of the difficulty of the curriculum has the general Laffer curve properties and can be fruitfully examined. A preoccupation with current enrollment levels can lead to pressure to ease the difficulty of the curriculum, however doing so will backfire in the long run.     

个税免征额、税率与拉弗曲线

本文基于个人所得税改革对经济主体行为产生激励的理论,尝试将个税免征额引入拉弗曲线(Laffer curve),分析了收入变化时收入税率曲线位置的移动与拉弗曲线的形态变化,以及个税免征额与最优税率之间的运动规律,发现随着个税免征额的提高,最优税率有下降的趋势,对我国当前个税免征额的提高与税率级次级距调整现象做出了较严密的数理分析。而在分析个税免征额的选择及其与税率之间的关系时,为我们找到在当前地区收入水平不均与居民收入分布多样的状况下的最优个税免征额以及实践差别化税制的理论依据,回答了原来仅考虑税率变化的拉弗曲线所不能回答的问题。     

Laffer strikes again: Dynamic scoring of capital taxes

We set up a neoclassical growth model extended by a corporate sector, an investment and finance decision of firms, and a set of taxes on capital income. We provide analytical dynamic scoring of taxes on corporate income, dividends, capital gains, other private capital income, and depreciation allowances and identify the intricate ways through which capital taxation affects tax revenue in general equilibrium. We then calibrate the model for the US and explore quantitatively the revenue effects from capital taxation. We take adjustment dynamics after a tax change explicitly into account and compare with steady-state effects. We find, among other results, a self-financing degree of corporate tax cuts of about 70–90% and a very flat Laffer curve for all capital taxes as well as for tax depreciation allowances. Results are strongest for the tax on capital gains. The model predicts for the US that total tax revenue increases by about 0.3–1.2% after abolishment of the tax.     

Double dividend,dynamic Laffer effects and public abatement

In a very stylized endogenous growth economy with pollution and public abatement activities and without any production externality, we show that the government may exploit dynamic Laffer effects to achieve a double dividend through an environmental tax reform, while fulfilling its commitment to provide an exogenously specified sequence of expenditures in the form of lump-sum transfers to consumers.     

中国企业绩效视角下拉斐尔曲线微观机制再发现

减税降费是激发企业活力、推动宏观经济高质量发展的重要举措,尤其在当前疫情情况下,制定保障企业生存、助力企业复工复产的税收政策更需找准发力点。拉斐尔曲线作为西方减税政策的主流理论基础被反复提及引述,然而该曲线的已有研究都是以所得税条件下劳动者的个人劳动供给决策作为其微观机制,这与流转税在我国税制结构中占据主导地位,且劳动力市场是供大于求的基本国情不符。因此,传统拉斐尔曲线在我国的具体环境下是否依然存在,其在企业层面的微观机制又是如何?这正是本文希望讨论的问题。本文采用2003—2017年沪深A股上市公司数据,首先对我国拉斐尔曲线的存在性进行检验,并进一步对企业绩效是否是拉斐尔曲线存在的影响机制进行验证。研究发现:我国存在拉斐尔曲线,且企业绩效是解释拉斐尔曲线的一个重要微观机制;同时,流转税和所得税都存在拉斐尔曲线,但微观机制只在流转税中成立,说明流转税环节的税收优惠相对于所得税应该更有效;并且不同产业和不同避税程度企业的拉斐尔曲线形状亦有显著差异。本文的研究结论为政府后续制定更加精准、高效的减税政策提供了思路方向。     

Constitutional tariffs, incidental protection, and the Laffer relationship in the early United States

This article explores an early attempt to establish a constitutional constraint on tariffs utilizing the Laffer Curve relationship. In 1842 John Calhoun suggested that the curve’s revenue maximization apex could be used to differentiate between “Revenue” and “Protective” tariffs independently from the non-judiciable question of legislative motive. When admitted that a tax must actually be collected to remain constitutionally valid, the apex functions as a de facto upper tariff rate constraint. Despite subsequently falling in disfavor, Calhoun’s argument illustrates the importance of political economy on the constitutional level by recognizing conditions that induce policymakers to rationally raise tax rates at the expense.

Technology level evaluation methodology based on the technology growth curve

Technology has been the driving force of development for knowledge-based economies. As competition in technology innovation among nations becomes more intense, there is a growing need for improved judgment, evaluation and prediction of scientific technology capacity in order to enhance national competitiveness. Until now, a country's technology level has been evaluated on a relative basis by comparing it with that of the country with the world's best technology. However, this kind of static methodology makes the interpretation of results unclear and makes time series analysis difficult. One of the most important limitations of this methodology is that it cannot be used to establish a strategy to improve the technology level. This paper examines the methodological problems of technology level evaluation and develops a dynamic methodology by applying the technology growth curve model. We also analyze the real technology level by using a new model application and review the relevance of this method. Finally, we discuss how to use the results in order to create a dynamic technology strategy.     

Spatial heterogeneity in the wage curve

Blanchflower and Oswald argue that the wage curve is a predictable empirical relationship with the “unemployment elasticity of pay” of about −0.1. Using GWR I find evidence of significant spatial heterogeneity in the unemployment elasticity of pay for US counties.     

Keynes' theory of money and his attack on the classical model

This paper centers on Keynes' theory of money and his attack on the classical model. Keynes criticized the self-correcting model of the British orthodoxy along two separate lines. In the first, in which Keynes' theory of money was crucial, he took the institutional variables as given and examined the functional relationships. Keynes' burden was to undermine what he termed the "classical dichotomy," where money was a veil, playing no role in determining output and employment. Two key features of the orthodox model were loanable funds and quantity theories, and Keynes' theory of money emerged from the rejection of these theories. The key to his attack on the classical dichotomy was the speculative demand for money, which he presented as an indirect, unstable function of the interest rate. Hence, Keynes linked money demand to the interest rate. The interest rate was thus determined by monetary variables rather than real factors, contrary to British orthodox opinion. Keynes then demonstrated that intended investment and saving need not be equal at a full employment equilibrium.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Fiftieth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 15–18, 2000, Charleston, South Carolina. The authors are grateful to participants for their helpful suggestions. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

An appraisal of the new classical macroeconomics

This paper appraises the “new classical macroeconomics” within the framework of Lakatos's methodology of scientific research programs. In terms of its ability to predict new facts, the new classical macroeconomics program is theoretically progressive; in terms of its ability to verify some of these predictions, the program is also empirically progressive. From these considerations I conclude that the new classical macroeconomics represents a progressive scientific research program.     

Transition from the classical to the Keynesian Perspective

This paper intends to recast the IS-LM to an analytical framework that reflects, more pertinently than the conventional version, Keynes's central analytical message in his General Theory resulting from his secession from the classics. The secession is imagined to be a process of transition from a simple analytical framework of the classics to this recast form of the IS-LM. Moreover the arguments in the paper occasionally touch on certain misleading conventional views pertaining to the issues.     

Stability in classical competition

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the third annual congress of the European Economic Association, Bologna, Aug. 25–27, 1988.     

Arbitration in classical Athens

The Classical Athenians developed two formal arbitration procedures. They assigned low stakes disputes to a panel of arbitrators, while high stakes cases were handled by a single arbitrator. Given the information aggregation benefit of collective decision making, one would have expected more individuals to be assigned to more important cases. I develop a theoretical model to provide an explanation for their design. Recognizing that arbitrator competence is endogenous, effort put into making a good decision takes time and effort. In larger groups free riding is a concern. Consequently, there exists environments where the free-riding loss is magnified in higher stakes disputes to the point where the socially optimal panel size is inversely related to the stakes involved.     

富士:先锋融于经典

早在1988年第一个试制出了数码相机产品的是富士，而现在决心最后一个留守胶片相机业的也是富士。“变”与“不变”蕴藏着富士对企业战略的深度设计[编者按]