Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction

Accurate estimation of prevailing metropolitan housing prices is important for both business and research investigations of housing and mortgage markets. This is typically done by constructing quality-adjusted house price indices from hedonic price regressions for given metropolitan areas. A major limitation of currently available indices is their insensitivity to the geographic location of dwellings within the metropolitan area. Indices are constructed based on models that do not incorporate the underlying spatial structure in housing data sets. In this article, we argue that spatial structure, especially spatial dependence latent in housing data sets, will affect the precision and accuracy of resulting price estimates. We illustrate the importance of spatial dependence in both the specification and estimation of hedonic price models. Assessments are made on the importance of spatial dependence both on parameter estimates and on the accuracy of resulting indices.     

Spatial and Temporal Dependence in House Price Prediction

This paper incorporates spatial and temporal dependence among housing transactions in predicting future house prices. We employ the spatiotemporal autoregressive model and structure the spatial and temporal weighting matrices as in Pace et al. (1998). We control for the time variation of both the attribute prices and the spatial and temporal dependence parameters through performing the analysis on an annual basis. Spatial heterogeneity is accounted for using experience-based definition of submarkets by real estate professionals. Using a comprehensive housing transaction data set from the Dutch Randstad region, we show that integrating the spatial and temporal dependence within the hedonic modeling improves the prediction power as compared to traditional hedonic model that neglects these effects.     

Spatial Dependence,Housing Submarkets,and House Price Prediction

This paper compares alternative methods of controlling for the spatial dependence of house prices in a mass appraisal context. Explicit modeling of the error structure is characterized as a relatively fluid approach to defining housing submarkets. This approach allows the relevant submarket to vary from house to house and for transactions involving other dwellings in each submarket to have varying impacts depending on distance. We conclude that—for our Auckland, New Zealand, data—the gains in accuracy from including submarket variables in an ordinary least squares specification are greater than any benefits from using geostatistical or lattice methods. This conclusion is of practical importance, as a hedonic model with submarket dummy variables is substantially easier to implement than spatial statistical methods.

房价与政府行为相关性分析

政府行为在经济发展的过程中发挥着重要的影响作用,本文基于政府行为分析,通过构建评价政府行为的指标体系,利用灰色关联度来考核政府行为与房价的相关性,得出政府行为对房价存在显著的影响.最终指出应当把房价作为考核政府官员绩效的一个重要目标,建立有关房价指标的考核体系,从而有效地促使地方政府更加积极、主动的调控房价,最终实现房...     

Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns: A Comparison of Four Models

This research reports results from a competition on modeling spatial and temporal components of house prices. A large, well-documented database was prepared and made available to anyone wishing to join the competition. To prevent data snooping, out-of-sample observations were withheld; they were deposited with one individual who did not enter the competition, but had the responsibility of calculating out-of-sample statistics for results submitted by the others. The competition turned into a cooperative effort, resulting in enhancements to previous methods including: a localized version of Dubins kriging model, a kriging version of Clapps local regression model, and a local application of Cases earlier work on dividing a geographic housing market into districts. The results indicate the importance of nearest neighbor transactions for out-of-sample predictions: spatial trend analysis and census tract variables do not perform nearly as well as neighboring residuals.     

Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices

This article examines spatial autocorrelation in transaction prices of single-family properties in Dallas, Texas. The empirical analysis is conducted using a semilog hedonic house price equation and a spherical autocorrelation function with data for over 5000 transactions of homes sold between 1991:4 and 1993:1. Properties are geocoded and assigned to separate housing submarkets within metropolitan Dallas. Hedonic and spherical autocorrelation parameters are estimated separately for each submarket using estimated generalized least squares (EGLS). We find strong evidence of spatial autocorrelation in transaction prices within submarkets. Results for spatially autocorrelated residuals are mixed. In four of eight submarkets, there is evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals for single-family properties located within a 1200 meter radius. In two submarkets, the hedonic residuals are spatially autocorrelated throughout the submarket, while the hedonic residuals are spatially uncorrelated in the remaining two submarkets. Finally, we compare OLS and kriged EGLS predicted values for properties sold during 1993:1. Kriged EGLS predictions are more accurate than OLS in six of eight submarkets, while OLS has smaller prediction errors in submarkets where the residuals are spatially uncorrelated and the estimated semivariogram has a large variance.     

Spatial Variation in Reverse Mortgages Usage: House Price Dynamics and Consumer Selection

Reverse mortgages have been obtained by nearly one million senior households. In the future, the number of eligible households will grow substantially, about 80 % are homeowners, and many of them have substantial equity in their home. We study state-level variations in rate of originations of HUD’s Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) product. Our focus is on the impact of house prices on the origination rate. We test the hypothesis that in states where real house prices are volatile and the current level is above the long term norm, seniors rationally anticipate future reductions in house prices and lock-in their housing equity gains by obtaining a reverse mortgage. We test alternative hypotheses, the first being that seniors living in states with high rates of house price appreciation increase their use of HECMs as a means to convert an illiquid wealth capital gain into a more liquid asset. A second alternative hypothesis is that the intertemporal changes in originations of HECMs were a result of changes in the supply of mortgage originators. Our empirical work supports the hypothesis that seniors used HECMs to insure against house price declines, but we find no evidence in support of the alternative hypotheses.     

信贷约束条件下的房价波动分析

本文在信贷约束条件下,基于微观主体的住房消费在其生命周期中需进行多期调整的假设,构建了房地产市场波动的动态模型。理论分析结果表明,存在信贷约束的条件下,信贷约束越强,房价波动相对于收入波动的弹性越大;而未预期到的短期收入冲击在短视的信贷约束下引起的房价波动比具有完美前瞻性的情况下引起的房价波动更大。以此为基础,本文采用1998年我国开始建立市场化住房体制以来的相关数据对研究结果进行进一步的分析,亦表明前瞻性地对贷款供给进行充分调整,将有助于减少房价的波动。因此,我国应根据对房价波动的预期来调节贷款供给,建立健全征信系统,实施差别化的首付款比例制度,以此来抑制房价的过度波动,维护经济与金融稳定。     

Cash and Distressed House Sales Price Discounts: Dual Sample Selection Spatial Interdependence Approaches

Beginning with a hedonic price model, and then progressing to a method accounting for dual sample selectivity biases and spatial interdependence; we document (and correct for) these potential confounding biases, and produce price counterfactuals for (1) all-cash financed property, (2) distressed property, and (3) all-cash and distressed property transactions. Results provide evidence of self- selection biases with all-cash purchasers, distressed properties, and distressed and all-cash properties. Significant disparities in observed cash (?13% and ?6.5%) and distressed property discounts (?1% and ?6%) are documented in pre-and post-recessionary environments, Further, cash discounts are consistent for non-distressed transactions (?11%) during both periods; however cash discounts associated with non-distressed transactions are significantly reduced post-recession (?23.3% to ?3.7%. This attenuation is attributed to a significant increase in the relative frequency of cash purchased distressed properties post-recession, i.e., larger percentage of cash buyers. Sub-sample counterfactual tests confirm prior results, and expand our understanding of all-cash and distressed discount determinants. These results provide insight into observed time variant all-cash, and distressed property discount affect sizes.     

Index Revision,House Price Risk,and the Market for House Price Derivatives

It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’ large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (the US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.

货币供应量对居民消费价格指数与房屋销售价格指数的影响——基于1978-2009年中国经验数据的分析

本文利用结构VAR模型分析了我国货币供应量对居民消费价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的影响,并通过1978年至2009年的经验检验,发现我国货币供应量对居民消费价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的影响较为显著,居民消费价格指数与房屋销售价格指数会此消彼长,并且,货币供应量对居民消费价格指数的影响存在半年到一年的滞后期。基于此,我们认为,在当前货币供应量持续处于高位、房地产价格被严格控制的背景下,要加倍警惕2010年下半年至2011年上半年居民消费价格指数上涨,从而产生通货膨胀局面的形成。     

Structural Breaks and the Convergence of Regional House Prices

This paper differs from past research by examining the issue of whether regime changes have broken down the stability of the ripple effect. The endogenous two-break LM unit test, derived in Lee and Strazicich (Review of Economics and Statistics 85: 1082–1089, 2003), is used to execute the ripple effect tests. Being different from the empirical results of the conventional unit root tests without structural breaks, the empirical results of the endogenous two-break LM unit root test support the existence of ripple effects for each city in Taiwan except Taipei City. Shocks to regional house prices of Taipei City cannot “ripple out” across the nation, because Taipei City is a regional global city which has resulted in higher house prices, but does not affect the house prices of the entire area. Furthermore, the empirical evidence demonstrates the breakpoints and presents real estate policies, financial crises, and natural disease that can cause structural breaks of regional house prices.     

House Prices and the Structure of Local Government: An Application of Spatial Statistics

When two internally homogeneous communities decide to jointly provide a public service, residents of each community lose some control over the public service provision. The loss of control over public schooling provision contributes to a $2,929 or 3.5 percent drop in constant-quality house value. Increased heterogeneity of the consolidated district is responsible for almost all the drop; the increased number of service recipients alone is responsible for almost none of the drop. The spatial hedonic, corrected for sample selection bias, also suggests economies of scale gains from school district consolidation must be worth at least $3,369—4 percent of house value.     

An Analysis of ASX Price Queries

This study examines 'no news' responses to stock price queries issued by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). We find strong evidence that the pre-query changes in price are driven by informed traders rather than by speculators. First, there is only a partial reversion in prices following a 'no news' response by a company in receipt of a price query. Second, the adverse selection component of market spreads rise during the immediate pre-query period and then decline following the company response. Last, the mean level of institutional shareholder ownership increases in the period immediately prior to an ASX query of a price increase.     

中国房地产价格的泡沫检验和空间联动分析

本文利用Pesaran提出的面板数据处理方法分析中国1996-2006年房地产价格,发现房地产价格和居民收入之间存在协整关系,但房价上涨速度快于居民收入增长速度,房地产市场具有"理性泡沫"特征。进一步的分析表明,城市化进程和空间扩散是短期内导致房价波动的两个重要因素,而利率的影响不显著。     

再售期权、货币幻觉与商品住宅价格泡沫

再售期权和货币幻觉两个因素分别从投资者对未来现金流分布的信念差异和对贴现率估计偏差的角度解释房地产价格泡沫的形成和膨胀。本文以上海商品住宅市场为例,运用动态剩余价值模型从租金房价比角度测度上海房价泡沫水平,并检验再售期权和货币幻觉对上海房价泡沫的解释作用。经验分析发现,上海商品住宅市场存在再售期权和货币幻觉效应,其中货币幻觉效应对房价泡沫影响具有不对称性但解释作用更强,建议应重点关注高通胀和实际负利率对房价泡沫的影响。     

产业集群与税源集聚的耦合机理分析

产业集群与税源集聚的耦合是指产业集群与税源集聚两个系统通过各自的耦合元素产生相互作用、彼此影响的一种现象。本文从消费结构、产业结构、城市化水平以及国际化水平四个方面分析产业集群与税源集聚的耦合关系,认为产业集群与税源集聚耦合的最基本理论依据就是税收与经济的关系原理。建议首先要坚持从经济到税收的工作思路,实施产业集群战略,支持产业集群发展;其次要改革和完善税收制度,推行依法治税,为产业集群发展营造优越的税收环境;最后还要加强产业集群区的税源管理。     

A Short History of Price Level Convergence in Europe

We study the evolution of price level dispersion in Europe by combining time-series information on harmonized indices of consumer prices (HICPs) with occasional observations of absolute price levels. We find that European price levels converged over much of the last 40 to 50 years. In the United States, our benchmark, price level dispersion is more or less stable. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that indirect tax rate harmonization, convergence of nontraded input costs, and convergence of traded input costs (in the form of exchange rate stability and increased openness) are all important in explaining European price level convergence.