Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems

A framework for comparing real estate valuation systems (including automated valuation models (AVMs) and current appraisal methods) is proposed. The density estimation and profit simulation (DEPS) method measures quality of a valuation system by simulating benefits to the mortgage lender who uses this method in mortgage underwriting to limit mortgage portfolio losses due to default. Related simple measures relevant to the selection of a valuation system are also discussed: skewness of the distribution of errors, correlation of valuation errors with current selling price errors, correlation of errors of the valuation system with errors of valuation systems used by competing mortgage lenders, and other measures.     

Valuation in US Commercial Real Estate

We consider a log‐linearized version of a discounted rents model to price commercial real estate as an alternative to traditional hedonic models. First, we verify a key implication of the model, namely, that cap rates forecast commercial real estate returns. We do this using two different methodologies: time series regressions of 21 US metropolitan areas and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with aggregate REIT returns. Both approaches confirm that the cap rate is related to fluctuations in future returns. We also investigate the provenance of the predictability. Based on the model, we decompose fluctuations in the cap rate into three parts: (i) local state variables (demographic and local economic variables); (ii) growth in rents; and (iii) an orthogonal part. About 30% of the fluctuation in the cap rate is explained by the local state variables and the growth in rents. We use the cap rate decomposition into our predictive regression and find a positive relation between fluctuations in economic conditions and future returns. However, a larger and significant part of the cap rate predictability is due to the orthogonal part, which is unrelated to fundamentals. This implies that economic conditions, which are also used in hedonic pricing of real estate, cannot fully account for future movements in returns. We conclude that commercial real estate prices are better modelled as financial assets and that the discounted rent model might be more suitable than traditional hedonic models, at least at an aggregate level.     

房地产抵押评估应关注的几个问题

随着金融体制改革的深化,各商业银行为降低自身的信贷风险,大都在推行以房地产抵押为主的抵押贷款.如何在房地产抵押中合理地对房地产价值进行评估,为抵押双方提供一个可靠的价值依据,从而保证金融部门的资金安全,保障抵押人应得的经济利益,已成为价值评估行业的一个重要课题.本文拟就房地产抵押的性质、抵押的客体范围、抵押标的权属以及评估中应关注的其他问题谈一些看法.     

规范投资性房地产评估 服务新会计准则

中国资产评估协会发布的《投资性房地产评估指导意见（试行）》（以下简称《指导意见》）,对以财务报告为目的的投资性房地产公允价值评估进行规范。这是继《以财务报告为目的的评估指南（试行）》（以下简称《评估指南》）于2007年11月发布之后．     

房地产抵押评估的评估方法问题

2008年,深圳房价大幅下跌,一些业主停止向银行偿还贷款,也就是＂断供＂。2008年7月中旬,深圳英郡年华、泰华阳光海、半岛城邦、澳城等楼盘的业主已经停止向银行偿还贷款。如果深圳的房价持续下跌,＂断供＂现象很有可能在深圳蔓延。众所周知,这将使银行出现坏账!     

浅谈以财务报告为目的的投资性房地产评估业务

国际会计准则（以下简称IAS）经过长达十余年的修订,逐渐完善了公允价值和投资性房地产的概念．及投资性房地产计量和披露的要求。在世界范围内．各国或各地区会计准则制定机构逐渐认识到．统一或趋同的会计准则将给财务报告使用者带来便利,     

浅析有租约限制的房地产评估

房地产租赁市场在整个房地产市场中占有重要地位。房地产的租约，产生了承租人权益，同时，所有权人的占有、使用、收益、处置受到了限制。所以，租约限制的房地产的价值评估与无租约限制的房地产评估有所不同，需要考虑租约的限制对房地产价格的影响。     

不动产评估中重置成本的分析

重置成本法是我国最常用的财产价值评估方法,也是评估不动产中使用较多的方法。如何合理地确定不动产的重置成本,不同的评估人员有着不太一致的说法。本文通过对有关重置成本的规范标准的对比,进行了重置成本的各种确定方法的综合分析,并提出了建议。     

基于模糊数学的房地产市场法价格评估

本文针对运用市场法评估房地产价格时,交易实例的选择、比较差异的量化调整以及交易实例比准价格的处理存在着不确定性和模糊性,将模糊数学应用于房地产评估,建立市场法评估模型,并进行了实证分析.结果表明,应用模糊数学评估房地产市场价格,具有方便、真实、可靠的特点.     

房地产估价中使用收益法应注意的问题

在运用收益法进行房地产估价时,目前存在着许多问题,他们都不同程度地影响了估价过程的科学性和估价结果的精确度。这些问题主要体现在收益法的适用范围和参数确定及资本化率的确定等几方面。     

《投资性房地产评估指导意见（试行）》对评估实践工作的指导意义

《投资性房地产评估指导意见（试行）》（以下简称《指导意见》）由中国资产评估协会起草,并经行业内部广泛地讨论,在征求各方意见后,最终由中评协会计与评估专业委员会修改．于近期公布。     

Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment

This paper investigates the role of fundamentals and investor sentiment in commercial real estate valuation. In real estate markets, heterogeneous properties trade in illiquid, highly segmented and informationally inefficient local markets. Moreover, the inability to short sell private real estate restricts the ability of sophisticated traders to enter the market and eliminate mispricing. These characteristics would seem to render private real estate markets highly susceptible to sentiment-induced mispricing. Using error correction models to carefully model potential lags in the adjustment process, this paper extends previous work on cap rate dynamics by examining the extent to which fundamentals and investor sentiment help to explain the time-series variation in national-level cap rates. We find evidence that investor sentiment impacts pricing, even after controlling for changes in expected rental growth, equity risk premiums, T-bond yields, and lagged adjustments from long run equilibrium.

Information Producers and Valuation: Evidence from Real Estate Markets

This paper examines valuation and its relation to information production by licensed appraisers across real estate markets. The testable implications are discussed for either a peer monitoring or a crowding out effect in the data. The empirical model is estimated with data for all 50 US states and DC covering the sample period from 1999 to 2008. While analysis is primarily cross-sectional and not causal, the evidence is consistent with theory stating that the minimum quality associated with residential licensure standards may be too low. In contrast, the evidence suggests certified residential standards afford information producers the opportunity to signal or information consumers the ability to screen based on quality.     

养老地产新生

如何以老年产业为基础,调整城市产业运营方式,转变养老事业的财政单一性投入,鼓励市场资本介入,这无疑是政府、开发商、投资者三方共同关注的焦点。     

房贷集中度管理 如何影响房地产与银行业?

过去十余年,房地产市场因上下游产业链条长,且横跨生产、消费、流通等领域,对经济增长发挥了拉动作用,但房地产资金与金融体系绑定较重,使其成为现阶段我国金融风险方面最大的"灰犀牛".2020年12月31日,央行、银保监会联合发布《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》,明确建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度...     

驳资产评估机构不能从事房地产评估业务

《中国资产评估》杂志2006年2月期曾登载了一份湖北省京山县人民法院的一审判决的判决书。该判决书判定“被告京山县房地产管理局对原告京山腾达资产评估事务所为京山嘉美购物广场和张实刚出具的资产评估报告拒绝确认有效的具体行政行为违法。”     

烫手的"121"房贷新政

房地产泡沫有多大? 是什么样的一个文件让房地产商们急得像热锅上的蚂蚁,并试图集结起来,开始用同一个声音说话?1 21号文件其实非常明确:对手续不全、自有资金不足的房地产项目不得发放贷款;不得使用银行贷款垫资;主体封顶才能发放按揭贷款;提供投资性购房人的贷款条件.央行何以在这个时候出台了这样一个文件,使得房地产商们如坐针毡.这使得人们自然将周正毅案发与央行出台房贷新政相挂钩.上海感冒,全国吃药.对于风险的防范,使得央行痛下决心进行房贷大检查.也有媒体认为,央行在起草通知前曾做过较为周密的调研."起草者努力的成果是,这次央行的措施,最厉害的并不是其中某一条或两条,而是全面地将所有的口子都堵住了."一位业界资深人士作此评价.     

解读房地产“四月新政”

四月以来房地产调控政策比较分析 自2009年12月开始的房地产调控政策没有像地产商们预期的那样由"调控"变成"空调",而是重拳频出,国务院4月17日出台的<关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的通知>(简称"国十条")更是被称为史上最严厉的房地产调控政策,其对投资性、投机性购房的遏制力度比之前颁布的<关于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的通知>(简称"国十一条")、<研究完善促进房地产市场健康发展政策措施>(简称"国四条")明显加大.     

Real Estate Confidence Index Based on Real Estate News

A real estate confidence index (RECI) is used to evaluate real estate industry development, and it has become an effective and powerful measure in China’s real estate market (REM). RECI research based on big data is the new trend in finance and economics. In this article, we apply some methods of text classification to research on the construction of RECI. First, the Naïve Bayes algorithm is used to evaluate data and to classify the extent to which this measure describes confidence in the REM. Second, experiments on different perspectives are performed to probe the relationship between variables and the accuracy of the classifier. Third, we use the classifier to predict the weekly news. Ultimately, construction of the RECI based on financial and economic news is achieved by applying the classifier to the time and existence of major financial and economic news.     

房地产估价资本化率的国内外比较分析及启示

随着房地产业的发展,估价业务量的增多,对估价方法的规范要求亦越来越高。作为三大估价方法之一的收益法,由于资本化率的确定存在技术上的难点,以致于错用、乱用现象时有发生。而资本化率取值高低的很小差异,就会造成估价结果极大的误差。本文通过对资本化率的含义、实质、构成及确定方法的国内外比较分析,以澄清认识误区,给人们以启示。