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1.
The cyclical variation in office construction, vacancies, rents, and values over the last decade has been enormous throughout the world. Reasons advanced for this enormity include prolifigate lenders, egotistical developers, and even rational behavior in the face of uncertainly and long construction periods. Our analysis of the Sydney office market suggests a fourth contributing factor: the failure of investors to understand the workings of property markets. Given the incentives of developers to build when value rises substantially above replacement cost and not to build when value is low relative to replacement cost, the property market has to be mean reverting. We provide direct evidence that Sydney investors did not incorporate mean reversion into their vacancy rate forecasts at the cyclical trough and as a result under valued properties. We provide indirect evidence that mean reversion of cash flows was not incorporated at the cyclical peak and that this triggered excessive construction and vacancies. That is, the Sydney office market in the late 1980s is another example of excess price volatility or an asset price bubble.  相似文献   

2.
Analyst Activity and Firm Value: Evidence from the REIT Sector   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
This paper is the first to examine (1) properties of analyst forecasts and (2) effects of analyst following on firm value for all REITs on CRSP, Compustat and I/B/E/S. Our results suggest that REITs operate in an information environment that has changed over time. We find that for periods when the REIT industry was either in the developmental stage (pre-1992), or after other structural changes in the industry (post-2000), more analysts cover REITs and forecasts are more accurate and less biased. Further, we find that mortgage REITs are more transparent than other REIT structures and exhibit properties of analyst behavior that are different from other types of REITs. Our investigation into the effect of analyst coverage on REIT value suggests that analyst coverage increases REIT value (as measured by Tobin’s q) and that the causality does not run the opposite way.
Andrew C. SpielerEmail:
  相似文献   

3.
This paper relies on an increasing number of industry equilibrium studies linking a firm to its industry peers to help explain the observed REIT capital structure variation within property segments beyond what is possible with the traditional partial equilibrium trade-off and pecking order theories, which assume that each firm operates in isolation from other market participants and are not particularly suitable to REITs because of the regulated setting within which these firms operate. We build several proxies for a REIT’s position within its property segment. Consistent with the competitive equilibrium model of Maksimovic and Zechner (1991), we find that a REIT’s volatility of operating performance relative to the median volatility of operating performance of its segment peers is an important determinant of its leverage ratio. We also find that a REIT’s leverage ratio depends on the median leverage ratio in its segment. Leverage is also related to a REIT’s status as an incumbent and its role as a leader in the property segment.  相似文献   

4.
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Using a sample of REITs from twelve countries around the world, we examine the determinants of REIT capital structure. We investigate...  相似文献   

5.
Using asset market data, as well as theoretical relations between investors' preferences,option-implied, risk-neutral, probability distribution functions (PDFs,) and index-implied,actual, PDFs, this paper extracts a time-series of investors' relative risk aversion (RRA)functions. Based on results recently derived by Benninga and Mayshar (2000), thesefunctions are used to recover the evolution of risk preferences heterogeneity. Applyingnon-parametric estimation on European call options written on the S & P500 index, wefind that: (i) the RRA functions are decreasing; and (ii) the constructed risk preferencesheterogeneity series is positively correlated in a static, as well as a dynamic, setup witha prevalent proxy for investors heterogeneity, namely, the spread between auction- andmarket-yields of Treasury bills.  相似文献   

6.
任哲  邵荣平  汪航 《投资研究》2012,(4):101-110
货币政策与资产价格之间的关系一直以来都是学术界研究的重点,但从房地产信贷视角分析房地产价格的文献却相对较少。本文基于多元MGARCH—BEKK模型和GRACH均值方程模型分析了房地产信贷、货币供应量与房地产价格的波动相关性以及它们的各种波动对房地产价格的影响。研究发现,房地产信贷增长的波动能影响房地产价格的增长,而货币供应量的波动,对房地产价格增长影响不显著。同时实证分析显示在对房价的调控中,房地产信贷的调控是抑制房价波动的一个工具选项。以银行信贷为主的货币供应量已经不能全面反映社会的流动性状况。与货币供应量相比,社会融资总量指标与实体经济指标的联系更加紧密。  相似文献   

7.
Financial contracting theories agree that more-liquid assets decrease the expected cost of external financing, thus making leasing more attractive and reducing lessors’ equilibrium return. However, the literature has ambiguous predictions about the effect of liquidity on the maturity of leases. These predictions are further complicated by the existence of two types of lease contracts—operating and capital—that differ in whether asset ownership transfers to the lessee at the end of the contract. Using data from commercial aircraft, I find that more-liquid assets (1) make leasing, operating leasing in particular, more likely; (2) have shorter operating leases; (3) have longer capital leases; and (4) command lower markups of operating lease rates.  相似文献   

8.
This paper confirms that a regime-switching model out-performs a linear VAR model in terms of understanding the system dynamics of asset returns. Impulse responses of REIT returns to either the federal funds rate or the interest rate spread are much larger initially but less persistent. Furthermore, the term structure acts as an amplifier of the impulse response for REIT return, a stabilizer for the housing counterpart under some regime, and, perhaps surprisingly, almost no role for the stock return. In contrast, GDP growth has very marginal effect in the impulse response for all assets.  相似文献   

9.
We use university endowment funds to study the relationship between asset allocation decisions and performance in multiple asset class portfolios. Although endowments differ substantially in asset class composition, policy portfolio returns and volatilities are remarkably similar across the sample. The risk-adjusted performance of the average endowment is negligible, but actively managed funds generate significantly larger alphas than passive ones. This is consistent with endowment managers exploiting their security selection abilities by over-weighting asset classes in which they have superior skills. Contrary to both theory and prevailing beliefs, asset allocation is not related to portfolio returns in the cross-section but does indirectly influence performance.  相似文献   

10.
Tong Yao  Tong Yu  Ting Zhang  Shaw Chen 《Pacific》2011,19(1):115-139
This study examines the effect of corporate asset growth on stock returns using data on nine equity markets in Asia. For the period from 1981 to 2007, we find a pervasive negative relation between asset growth and subsequent stock returns. Such relation is weaker in markets where firms' asset growth rates are more homogeneous and persistent and in markets where firms rely more on bank financing for growth. On the other hand, corporate governance, investor protection, and legal origin do not influence the magnitude of the asset growth effect in Asian markets.  相似文献   

11.
Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
When countries liberalize their stock markets, firms that become eligible for foreign purchase (investible), experience an average stock price revaluation of 15.1%. Since the historical covariance of the average investible firm's stock return with the local market is roughly 200 times larger than its historical covariance with the world market, liberalization reduces the systematic risk associated with holding investible securities. Consistent with this fact: (1) the average effect of the reduction in systematic risk is 6.8 percentage points, or roughly two fifths of the total revaluation; and (2) the firm-specific revaluations are directly proportional to the firm-specific changes in systematic risk.  相似文献   

12.
13.
We examine the effect of information asymmetry on equity prices in the local A‐ and foreign B‐share market in China. We construct measures of information asymmetry based on market microstructure models, and find that they explain a significant portion of cross‐sectional variation in B‐share discounts, even after controlling for other factors. On a univariate basis, the price impact measure and the adverse selection component of the bid‐ask spread in the A‐ and B‐share markets explains 44% and 46% of the variation in B‐share discounts. On a multivariate basis, both measures are far more statistically significant than any of the control variables.  相似文献   

14.
We use a general Markov switching model to examine the relationships between returns over three different asset classes: financial assets (US stocks and Treasury bonds), commodities (oil and gold) and real estate assets (US Case-Shiller index). We confirm the existence of two distinct regimes: a “tranquil” regime with periods of economic expansion and a “crisis” regime with periods of economic decline. The tranquil regime is characterized by lower volatility and significantly positive stock returns. During these periods, there is also evidence of a flight from quality - from gold to stocks. By contrast, the crisis regime is characterized by higher volatility and sharply negative stock returns, along with evidence of contagion between stocks, oil and real estate. Furthermore, during these periods, there is strong evidence of a flight to quality - from stocks to Treasury bonds.  相似文献   

15.
国际投资者因中国经济快速成长而投资A股、H股、B股等中国股票资产。已有研究从硬分割和软分割角度研究了A-H和A-B股折扣率形成原因。本文进一步从国际与国内投资者的价值偏好差异来研究折扣率差异。对1999-2007年的面板数据采用固定效应估计方法,发现在控制其他因素后,折扣率和上市公司的价值变量显著负相关,表明国际投资者偏好价值型的中国股票资产,导致其折扣率偏低。相对信息不对称,价值偏好差异是更重要的资本市场软分割因素。  相似文献   

16.
We document that contractual disclosures by intermediaries during the sale of mortgages contained false information about the borrower's housing equity in 7–14% of loans. The rate of misrepresented loan default was 70% higher than for similar loans. These misrepresentations likely occurred late in the intermediation and exist among securities sold by all reputable intermediaries. Investors—including large institutions—holding securities with misrepresented collateral suffered severe losses due to loan defaults, price declines, and ratings downgrades. Pools with misrepresentations were not issued at a discount. Misrepresentation on another easy‐to‐quantify dimension shows that these effects are a conservative lower bound.  相似文献   

17.
We investigate whether Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) managers actively manipulate performance measures in spite of the strict regulation under the REIT regime. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with this hypothesis. Specifically, manipulation strategies may rely on the opportunistic use of leverage. However, manipulation does not appear to be uniform across REIT sectors and seems to become more common as the level of competition in the underlying property sector increases. We employ a set of commonly used traditional performance measures and a recently developed manipulation-proof measure (MPPM, Goetzmann et al., Rev Finan Stud 20(5):1503–1546, 2007) to evaluate the performance of 147 REITs from seven different property sectors over the period 1991–2009. Our findings suggest that the existing REIT regulation may fail to mitigate a substantial agency conflict and that investors can benefit from evaluating return information carefully in order to avoid potentially manipulative funds.  相似文献   

18.
Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We explore the time-series relationship between investor sentimentand the small-stock premium using consumer confidence as a measureof investor optimism. We estimate the components of consumerconfidence related to economic fundamentals and investor sentiment.After controlling for the time variation of beta, we study thetime-series variation of the pricing error with sentiment. Overthe last 25 years, investor sentiment measured using consumerconfidence forecasts the returns of small stocks and stockswith low institutional ownership in a manner consistent withthe predictions of models based on noise-trader sentiment. Sentimentdoes not appear to forecast time-series variation in the valueand momentum premiums. (JEL G10, G12, G14)  相似文献   

19.
中外资产管理业务的比较与启示   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
中外资产管理业务的现状 资产管理的概念有广义与狭义之分.广义的资产管理是指中介机构所有形式的代客户进行投资的行为或提供的资产增值服务.按照这一定义,一些中介机构为客户提供的非常简单的资产增值服务,如银行为客户开设储蓄账户等都包含在资产管理的范围之内.狭义的资产管理则专指金融机构接受客户的委托,利用组合投资等复杂专业技术,通过资本市场对客户的委托资产在授权范围内进行经营管理,以实现资产保值增值的金融业务.其主要特征是资产管理账户独立,管理人只收取管理费和绩效费.本文所研究的资产管理范围限定为狭义的资产管理.  相似文献   

20.
We explore the questions of why Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) pay more for real estate than non-REIT buyers and by how much. First, we develop a search model where REITs optimally pay more for property because (1) they are willing, due to cost of capital advantages and, (2) they are occasionally rushed, due to external regulatory time constraints and internal incentives to deploy capital quickly. Second, using commercial real estate transactions, we find that the extant hedonic pricing models contain an unobserved explanatory variables bias leading to inflated estimates of the REIT premium. Third, using a repeat-sales methodology that controls for unobserved property characteristics, we derive more plausible estimates of the REIT premium. Consistent with our model, we also find the REIT-buyer premium depends on the size of the REIT advantage, the rush to deploy, and the relative presence of REITs in the market.  相似文献   

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