ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE STRUCTURE OF TAXES IN SOUTH AFRICA: 1960–2002*

One tenet of taxation is its distorting effect on economic behaviour. Despite the economic inefficiencies resulting from taxation, it is widely believed that taxes impact minimally on the economy's growth rate. Evidence in developing countries generally supports this view. In this paper, we present evidence that tax distortions in South Africa may be much more severe. Using tax and economic data from 1960 to 2002 and a two‐stage modelling technique to control for unobservable business cycle variables, we examine the relationship between total taxation, the mix of taxation and economic growth. We find that decreased tax burdens are strongly associated with increased economic growth potential; in addition, contrary to most theoretical research, decreased indirect taxation relative to direct taxation is strongly correlated with increased economic growth potential.     

Can Time–Space Compression Promote Urban Economic Growth? Evidence from China's High‐speed Rail Projects

This paper studies the effect of high‐speed rail (HSR) on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007–2017. Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference‐in‐difference analysis, we extend the horse‐mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so‐called middle‐income trap. The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR time–space compression as well as the city neighboring effects on economic growth. It is found that HSR's efficient boundaries are within the range of 200–1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50–300 km for prefecture‐level cities. HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent, and the neighboring effect accounts for one‐quarter of economic growth. Three policy implications are drawn: (i) China needs to further reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou; (ii) China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities; (iii) China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.     

税收结构、政府支出与经济增长

本文构建包含税收结构和政府支出的内生增长理论模型,运用我国1998-2017年31个省市自治区数据,通过固定效用面板数据模型,研究税收结构与在预算平衡下政府支出对长期经济增长影响,并详细分析了东中西部地区间的差异。主要结论有:1.将增值税纳入理论模型之中,研究发现,税收对长期经济增长没有影响,政府支出用于提供公共技术品时会有长期增长效应。2.在满足预算约束平衡时,虽然税收对长期经济增长没有影响,但税制结构具有配置效应。3.不同税种对东中西三个区域具有差异性,需要通过制定合理的税制结构政策来促进区域的经济发展。     

促进循环经济发展的税收政策选择

目前我国经济增长方式依然属于粗放型增长,以牺牲环境、过度消耗资源为代价来发展经济。发展循环经济是我国经济社会发展的一项重大战略,需要通过税收政策的运用和监督管理,调节不同主体的经济利益,促进循环经济发展。现行税制对循环经济的发展还存在种种制约,有必要改进现行税种;开征碳税;对生态工业园区实行倾斜的税收优惠政策。     

实质性减税降费与经济高质量发展

本文通过对我国减税降费政策发展演变过程的分析,阐释了实质性减税降费与经济高质量发展之间的关系。经济高质量发展就是以供给侧结构性改革为主线,推动经济发展质量变革、效率变革和动力变革。而我国减税降费政策的目标指向就是要实现经济高质量发展,通过降低增值税实现经济增长质量提升和经济结构改善,通过降低企业所得税实现企业效率变革,通过降低高层次人才个人所得税提高我国经济增长的知识含量和技术水平,从而实现动力变革。为此,一要在我国企业所得税支持国家创新体系"双重激励"的基础上,进一步完善高层次人才的税收支持体系,形成对国家创新体系的"三重激励";二要打造政府、企业、居民"多支柱养老模式",为企业轻装上阵奠定制度基础;三要适应经济金融化发展趋势,加强对数字经济的公平课税;四要落实好高质量征管,为实质性减税降费政策的实施保驾护航;五要处理好中央政府与地方政府间的财政关系。     

公共支出、税收政策对居民消费结构的影响

为促进消费水平,积极响应国内经济大循环的构建,在内生经济框架下,研究我国财政政策对居民消费结构的影响,分析消费对于经济增长的贡献。文中将税率分解,通过将消费结构细化,研究不同税率对于不同性质的消费所产生的差异化影响。基于省级面板数据的实证结果表明,增加公共支出可促进消费增速,税制的调整符合拉弗曲线。以调整消费结构为目的来优化财政政策,建议增加政府公共支出,提升资本税率,同时就短期税收增长和经济增长不平衡的现状而言,建议降低个人所得税与增值税。     

如何培育高质量地方税源——以广东省为例

税收取决于经济,脱离了经济,税收就是无源之水无本之木。因此,税收的关键在于税源。培育高质量地方税源就是要发展地方经济,挖掘出新的经济增长点,增加地方收入的来源,增强地方经济发展的动力。本文通过探讨培育高质量广东地方税源,以建立地方税收收入良性增长的机制,最终达到走出经济萧条,促进地方经济发展的目的。     

世界经济新格局与中国经济长期增长前景

中国各行业企业资本边际收益率普遍下降,意味着中国宏观经济增速下行已成为必然趋势。实际上,这标志着中国在完成基本工业化后开始从高速增长阶段进入中低速增长阶段,这也是国际发达经济体和东亚新兴经济体都遵循的发展规律。面对经济增长的趋势性变化,货币政策对经济增长的刺激作用是非常有限的,大量超发货币只会加剧信贷泡沫、增加企业尝债能力的系统性风险。当前经济的核心问题在于宏观税赋过高和企业盈利能力不足,因此,最重要的财政政策应该是实施总量减税而不仅是结构性减税,尤其是对中小企业减税减赋,才能增加就业,提高居民消费比例,转变经济增长方式。     

1992-2003年我国流转税与所得税的发展

分析流转税与所得税近十年的发展变化和未来的增长趋势,结合我国税制改革以来流转税和所得税的发展变化的特点,用实证的方法,拟合流转税和昕得税关于国内生产总值的历史发展轨迹,测算流转税和所得税与各项经济指标的相关系数,具体量化当经济增长一定的条件下,所得税优于流转税的倍数;可建立经济计量模型,得到流转税和所得税应该达到的最优税收比例。     

Land tax and economic growth under credit market imperfection

We study the general equilibrium effects of land taxation on economic growth by extending the model developed by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) to an endogenous growth model, where land is used not only as an input of production but also as collateral. Land taxation tends to hamper economic growth through the credit-contraction effect, but the overall direction on economic growth depends on the redistribution scheme of the tax revenue. Surprisingly, we show that if the tax revenue is fully refunded to entrepreneurs, the economy grows faster than a no-taxation economy. We calibrate our model and show that if taxation on land is raised by 1 percent, the land price initially falls by approximately 9.09 percent, while the economy grows faster by 0.6%.     

论我国环境税收体系的构建

随着我国经济的快速增长,环境问题日趋严重,已成为制约我国可持续发展的重要因素之一。经济手段在环境保护中的应用取得了空前的发展,税收是政府实施环境保护的必要经济性措施。因此,构建一套适合我国国情、科学而完整的环境税收制度,已刻不容缓。通过借鉴国外环境税制实践经验和评析我国与环境相关的税费政策,最终提出构建适应我国国情的环境税制的设想。     

循环经济发展的税收原则构想

循环经济作为环境保护、资源节约型经济发展新模式,其实质是生态经济、高效经济。要想利用税收政策促进循环经济发展,必须对传统税收原则进行重新定位。按照循环经济特征和税收工作实际,我国进行循环经济税收政策设计时,应着重遵循生态效率、代际公平、环保收入和依法治税四项原则。     

后世博时期促进上海经济长效增长的地方税研究

文章分别从需求与产业两个视角对影响后世博时期上海经济长效增长的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)消费需求是直接带动上海经济增长的主力军;(2)产业结构优化调整与经济增长存在长期稳定关系;(3)产业结构优化调整是促进上海经济增长的重要原因.在此实证结论的支持下,文章提出运用税收政策引导和支持新兴产业发展、加快地方税体系建设、完善和实施有利于消费结构升级的财税政策等建议,以促进上海市经济长效增长.     

论我国生态税征收和比较的分析

本文认为我国目前生态环境破坏严重,应该进行生态补偿,而税收是有效的生态补偿的经济手段。在分析税收的基础上,本文指出了生态税从现行税收体制中单列的技术系统,建立了动态征收生态税的模型和比较不同地区税负水平的方法,最后提出了我国税制建立的设计原则。     

Tax rate,government revenue and economic performance: A perspective of Laffer curve

The Laffer curve illustrates a theoretical relationship between rates of taxation and the resulting levels of government revenue. This paper explores the relationship between tax rate (direct tax on labor income), government revenue and economic performance in a perspective of the Laffer curve by applying Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the top of China's Laffer curve is about 40%. The government should consider changes in the entire taxation system and not just changes in direct taxes while increasing direct tax rate. If China wants to maximize tax revenues, the direct tax rate should be 35%. We conduct a variety of sensitivity analyses and conclude that the government tax peak is always 5–10% earlier than the apex of the Laffer curve. So, if a country has reached the top of the Laffer curve, this paper strongly recommends that tax cuts will have positive implications for the economy and government revenue.     

The economic effects of the fair tax: analysis of results of a dynamic CGE model of the US economy

By replacing the current income tax with a national sales tax, the FairTax proposal would end the double taxation of saving inherent in the existing tax code and, by doing so, raise output, employment, investment and capital stock relative to the benchmark economy. While these positive effects would be felt almost immediately, the FairTax is very much an investment in the future. Its full benefits would be realized only after the economy achieved a new “steady state,” some 20–25 years into implementation. Only by that point, will the effects on growth have been fully absorbed into the economy and the wellbeing of most households across most income groups improved. The policy choice, then, is between the status quo, and a new policy that would inflict some short-run pain as the price of a permanently expanded economy.     

The making of a fiscal state in Song China, 960–1279

In light of the Schumpeterian paradigm, this article explores the rise of the tax state in eleventh‐century China and its further transition towards a fiscal state until the Mongol conquest in 1279. By the late eleventh century in the Song dynasty, two‐thirds of state revenues came from taxing non‐agricultural sectors, especially from the collection of excise. The Song state became the first sustainable tax state in global history, as manifested in three major aspects: monetization; indirect taxation; and centralization and professionalization in the tax administration. The boundary of the Song tax state was largely confined to urban settlements. In rural areas, the state gave up the collection of commercial taxes by farming out this right to local elites. In the twelfth century, as traditional tax revenues fell far short of supporting military defence, the Song administration utilized credit instruments. Around 1200, the amount of redeemable promissory notes first exceeded that of annual tax revenues. This shift from tax‐based public finance to credit‐based public finance completed the transition towards a fiscal state. Nonetheless, this development in the fiscal state was still at an early stage and proved to be unstable. Toward the end of the Southern Song, hyperinflation caused by the over‐issuance of promissory notes seriously threatened the economy.     

论WTO规则约束下地方政府在外贸领域的自主创新促进政策

为了鼓励出口企业自主创新,特殊经济区的地方政府可对国家没有实行全额出口退税但具有中国专利、已登记作品版权或自有出口商标的产品实行出口货物增值税未退进项税额地方财政部分返还政策,沿海经济发达地区的地方政府可对出口产品实行受托设计项目营业税地方财政减半返还政策和免费提供海外市场自主知识产权覆盖公共服务政策。     

以家庭为单位征收个人所得税的制度设计问题--基于三种所得税征收模式的讨论

1993年确立的我国现行个人所得税征收模式,随着经济形势的发展变化,虽然做过数次局部调整,从整体来看与经济发展的匹配度仍然不高。学界对我国个人所得税制度的改革主要持两种观点,一种认为应该坚持并完善现行成熟的分类所得税制,通过征管手段的提高,强化源泉课税,减少税收流失。另一种观点则主张放弃现行的分类所得税制,选择实行综合所得税制。本文主要对以家庭为单位征收个人所得税,是以分类所得税制、综合所得税制,还是混合所得税制为基础更适应现实国情的问题展开分析,在此基础上提出了混合所得税制之下实行以家庭为单位征收个人所得税的制度假设。     

建立税式支出制度：完善我国的公共财政体制

税式支出是规范税收优惠的一种制度创新,作为一种实现预算政策和税收政策的新方法,成为我国新一轮财税体制改革中必须考虑和予以充分重视的问题。文章通过建立税式支出制度的可行性分析,提出构建适合我国国情的税式支出制度。