THE GRAPE PHYLLOXERA PLAGUE AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT: THE UPKEEP OF VINEYARDS IN CATALONIA (SPAIN), 1858–1935

This paper analyses the impact in Catalonia of the grape Phylloxera plague in Europe (1865–90). A statistical model is used to analyse the economic resilience of 35 districts in Catalonia to this external ecological and economic shock, and to explain why districts in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona resumed growing wine grapes after the plague, in contrast to districts in Girona and Lleida provinces. The opportunity cost of labour, the demand pull of Barcelona's commercial growth, and the agro-climatic suitability of land for growing grapes are used to explain the differing capacities of districts to endure the Phylloxera plague in Catalonia.     

Heading for the Hills? Effects of Community Flood Management on Local Adaptation to Flood Risks

The Community Rating System (CRS) program was implemented by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 1990 as an optional program to encourage communities to voluntarily engage in flood mitigation initiatives. This article uses national census tract‐level data from 1980 to 2010 to estimate whether CRS participation and flood risk affect a community's local patterns of population change. We employ an instrumental‐variables strategy to address the potential endogeneity of CRS participation, based on community‐scale demographic factors that predict when a tract's host community joins the CRS. The results find significant effects of the CRS program and flood risk on population change. Taken together, the findings point to greater propensity for community‐scale flood management in areas with more newcomers and programs such as CRS stabilizing population, though not especially in flood‐prone areas. We observe the CRS neither displacing population toward lower‐risk areas nor attracting more people to flood‐prone areas.     

The effects of reconstruction finance corporation assistance on Michigan's banks' survival in the 1930s

We examine the effects of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation's (RFC) loan and preferred stock programs on bank failure rates in Michigan during the period 1932–1934, which includes the important Michigan banking crisis of early 1933 and its aftermath. Using a new database on Michigan banks, we employ probit and survival duration analysis to examine the effectiveness of the RFC's loan program (the policy tool employed before March 1933) and the RFC's preferred stock purchases (the policy tool employed after March 1933) on bank failure rates.     

RAINFALL, THE MÉLINE TARIFF, AND WHEAT PRODUCTION IN MEDITERRANEAN FRANCE, 1885–1914

Wheat production stagnated in France during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, while cultivated acreage and wheat output declined sharply around the Mediterranean from the 1870s. Wheat output never recovered in this region despite the introduction in 1885 of tariff measures, such as the 1892 Méline Tariff. This paper analyses the response of Mediterranean wheat growers to changes in local rainfall and to variations of the duty on imported grains. It uses regional level data for nine administrative divisions located on or near the Mediterranean and assesses the impact of rainfall on yields. It argues that an interplay of protectionist policies and environmental conditions explain the decline of wheat production.     

Fear and greed: The evolution of double liability in American banking, 1865-1930

This paper examines the pattern and timing of the enactment of double liability for state banks in the United States prior to the Great Depression. Under double liability, shareholders of failing banks could lose, in addition to the initial purchase price of shares, an amount equal to the par value of shares owned. The results suggest that double liability was adopted by states subject to greater economic risks, where bank failures were more likely, or where the economy and banking sector were more advanced and bank failures would be more costly (i.e., fear), and that single liability was adopted by more rapidly growing states, where the payoff to greater risk-taking was higher (i.e., greed).     

FURTHER EVIDENCE OF LONG MEMORY IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN STOCK MARKET

This paper expands and augments the results of the paper by Jefferis and Thupayagale ) and tests the efficiency of the South African stock market with Wavelet and Markov Switching Regime analyses of selected shares and the a ALSI 40 data. The Wavelet analysis indicated that most of the individual share prices and the share index time series are mean reverting over the long run and follow a long memory process, offering evidence against weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH). The Markov model modelled the financial and prevalent economic conditions accurately and established the presence of patterns in the historic time series, providing additional support against the weak-form EMH.     

Asymmetric information in late 19th century cooperative insurance societies

Between 1880 and 1930, cooperative insurance was the main source of illness, accident, and death insurance in the United States, Canada, and England. This paper tests for asymmetric information in cooperative insurance societies and examines how their pricing policies affected the profile of members. We find strong evidence that, unlike their modern substitutes, cooperative societies were able to overcome the asymmetry of information. Furthermore, as a consequence of non-actuarial pricing, our results suggest that workers deferred their membership until they were about 40 years old.     

Immigration and the public transfer system: Some empirical evidence for Switzerland

Immigration and the Public Transfer System: Some Empirical Evidence for Switzerland. —The paper deals with the distributional effects of immigration into Switzerland. The cross-section analysis for 1990 shows that the presence of resident foreigners has not put additional strain on the public purse. On the contrary, there was a favourable financial effect for the native population. The analysis reveals how important the age and qualification of the household head and the number of children in the household are. By including both monetary and real public transfer payments a compre-hensive account of the budget effects of immigration is given.     

DURATION ANALYSIS IN SOUTH AFRICA: THE SEARCH FOR SUPERIOR MEASURES

The Macaulay duration is a highly successful tool for measuring and managing interest rate risk. However, it employs restrictive assumptions which constrain its usefulness in a rapidly evolving market. The Basel II implementation and ongoing accounting standard reassessments highlight the requirement for accurate, robust risk measures. Contemporary research has focused on augmenting the existing duration definition. We extend this work by relaxing some input assumptions, describing a different duration measure and applying it to interest rate driven price changes and examining the influence on the duration gap. The economic market value of equity (an important metric for regulators and risk management) is significantly improved.     

A COMPARISON OF SOUTH AFRICAN HEDGE FUND RISK MEASURES

Although hedge funds have enjoyed unrivalled dominance after years of stellar returns, a combination of low interest rates, sustained economic growth and diminished arbitrage opportunities now threaten them. Distinguishing between funds – an onerous task with notoriously opaque investment strategies – has become paramount in the search for optimal returns. Simple risk and return performance measures cannot cope with the demands of an increasingly complex financial milieu. Interest has thus focused on more effective discriminatory performance measures. The innovative Omega ratio is calculated for South African hedge funds and compared with both Sharpe and Sortino ratios. Omega emerges as the superior measure.     

加工中心实训教学中编程与操作方法的探讨

在实验实训教学和科研生产中,编程或操作失误发生事故,往往给实训的学生带来很大的心理压力。通过在数控加工中心实践中的体会,文章介绍在数控机床上操作与编程的具体做法和经验,并提出了相应的防范措施。