Environmental impacts of technological change in Bangladesh agriculture: farmers' perceptions, determinants, and effects on resource allocation decisions

This article measures the impact of modern technology adoption in raising farmers' environmental awareness and the impact of farmers' environmental awareness on resource use by utilizing survey data from 21 villages in three agro‐ecological regions of Bangladesh. The econometric analysis is based on the application of the Tobit model explaining farmers' environmental awareness in the first stage and a profit function examining environmental awareness and resource use relationships in the second stage. Results reveal that the “level” and “duration” of involvement with modern technology raises farmers' environmental awareness, and that farmers' environmental awareness reduces resource use including chemicals. Farmers, who are aware of the adverse environmental impacts of modern agricultural technology, use lower amounts of all inputs in order to avoid further environmental damage. Therefore, efforts to raise farmers' environmental awareness are expected to enhance intangible benefits accruing from a relatively less chemical‐intensive environment.     

The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is ?6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.     

Comparing supply‐side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system

This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partial versus economy‐wide—and in how they represent technology and the behavior of supply and demand in markets. The CGE models are “deep” structural models in that they explicitly solve the maximization problem of consumers and producers, assuming utility maximization and profit maximization with production/cost functions that include all factor inputs. The PE models divide into two groups on the supply side: (1) “shallow” structural models, which essentially specify area/yield supply functions with no explicit maximization behavior, and (2) “deep” structural models that provide a detailed activity‐analysis specification of technology and explicit optimizing behavior by producers. While the models vary in their specifications of technology, both within and between the PE and CGE families, we consider two stylized theoretical models to compare the behavior of crop yields and supply functions in CGE models with their behavior in shallow structural PE models. We find that the theoretical responsiveness of supply to changes in prices can be similar, depending on parameter choices that define the behavior of implicit supply functions over the domain of applicability defined by the common scenarios used in the AgMIP comparisons. In practice, however, the applied models are more complex and differ in their empirical sensitivity to variations in specification—comparability of results given parameter choices is an empirical question. To illustrate the issues, sensitivity analysis is done with one global CGE model, MAGNET, to indicate how the results vary with different specification of technical change, and how they compare with the results from PE models.     

Adoption of climate‐smart practices and its impact on farm performance and risk exposure among smallholder farmers in Ghana

Increased climate variability during the last four decades has made the agricultural environment in many developing countries more uncertain, resulting in increasing exposure to risk when producing crops. In this study, we use recent farm‐level data from Ghana to examine the drivers of individual and joint adoption of crop choice and soil and water conservation practices, and how adoption of these practices impacts on farm performance (crop revenue) and exposure to risks (skewness of crop yield). We employ a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to account for selectivity bias due to both observable and unobservable factors. The empirical results reveal that farmers’ adoption of crop choice and soil and water conservation leads to higher crop revenues and reduced riskiness in crop production, with the largest impact on crop revenues coming from joint adoption. The findings also show that education of the household head, access to extension and weather information influence the likelihood of adopting these practices. Thus, enhancing extension services and access to climate information and irrigation can reduce gaps in adoption of soil and water conservation and crop choice, considered as climate‐smart practices that will eventually improve crop revenues and reduce farmers’ exposure to climate‐related production risks.     

Effect of off‐farm income on smallholder commercialization: panel evidence from rural households in Ethiopia

This article investigates how off‐farm income affects crop output market participation decisions and marketed surplus of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. A double‐hurdle model is estimated using three waves of panel data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for using a correlated random effect procedure and potential endogeneity of explanatory variables using a control function approach. The results show that off‐farm income has no significant influence on household crop output market participation. However, conditional on market participation, additional off‐farm earnings negatively affect the marketed surplus. This indicates that farmers use off‐farm earnings for consumption rather than for investment in agricultural production. Policy measures that promote rural investment may help increase returns to labor for land‐poor households participating in off‐farm work in the process of agricultural commercialization.     

Are small‐scale rice farmers in eastern India really inefficient? Examining the effects of microtopography on technical efficiency estimates

The article analyzes how controlling for differences in land types (defined by position on a low‐scale toposequence) affects estimates of farm technical efficiency for rice farms in eastern India. Contrasting previous research, we find that farms are considerably more technically efficient when efficiency estimates are carried out at the plot level and control for plot characteristics rather than at the farm level without such controls. Estimates show farms cultivating modern varieties are technically efficient and plots planted with traditional varieties on less productive lands (upland and midupland) operate close to the production frontier. Significant technical inefficiency is found on more productive lands (medium and lowland plots) planted with traditional rice varieties. The finding that these smallholder rain‐fed rice farms are efficient cultivators on some plots contrasts with previous findings of farm‐level inefficiency (i.e., rejects overarching explanations linked to farm operator ignorance or lack of motivation) and suggests more complex explanations are required to address the inefficiency that is present.     

Re‐evaluating the Harbinson Proposal – Prospects for the EU25: A Note

In this study, we use the Harbinson Proposal and July Framework to compare a ‘likely’ Doha scenario with a realistic baseline. The novelty of this study is that we focus exclusively on the trade‐led welfare impacts in selected EU member states. The important features of this note are the: (i) usage of the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (version 6) data; (ii) focus on EU25 regions incorporating all major Common Agricultural Policy instruments and reforms; and (iii) inclusion of binding tariff overhangs into the Harbinson tariff reductions. Results show the damping effects of tariff‐binding overhangs on welfare outcomes. This and other factors which limit the gains to liberalisation mean that the EU25 only realises 10% of its long‐run welfare gain potential, as defined by complete liberalisation.     

Peer effects in the diffusion of water‐saving agricultural technologies

We investigate the role of peer effects in the diffusion of an important water‐saving irrigation technology: low energy precise application (LEPA). Using detailed irrigation behavior data for growers in the High Plains Aquifer region of Kansas covering 1990–2014, we find clear evidence of peer influence in adoption of LEPA, net of environmental factors. Specifically, an additional neighboring LEPA installation within 1 km increases the probability of adoption by about 0.3 percentage points, on average, and this effect diminishes with distance. Our empirical estimates indicate that in the absence of peer effects, LEPA adoption would have been about 10% lower (1,000–1,600 fewer installations) per year. In addition, we find that growers install LEPA in response to higher energy prices.     

Structural transformation and smallholder agriculture: an information‐theoretic analysis of the Nicaraguan case

In light of continued debate regarding the capacity of small‐scale agricultural producers to compete amidst globalization and/or liberalization, we examine recent trends in the distribution and use of agricultural landholdings in developing nations via refined exploration of the Nicaraguan case. With nationally‐representative, Living Standards Measurement Survey‐type data for the years 1998, 2001, and 2005, we employ Markov chain methods within an information‐theoretic framework in an attempt to advance the analysis of structural transformation in developing countries beyond the examination of trends in mean farm sizes or Gini coefficients, approaches ill‐suited to the detection of the apparent complexities of structural change. Further, while Markov chain analysis has witnessed relatively widespread application in the investigation of structural transformation in developed nations, we offer a novel methodological extension by allowing for the simultaneous exploration of structural transformation across multiple dimensions–namely, structural change in both the distribution and use of agricultural landholdings—as well as the incorporation of microlevel determinants of farm size and land use change. The results of the inquiry, above all, suggest that Nicaragua's agricultural and livestock sector is characterized by a definitive persistence of smallholders. While a moderate tendency toward bifurcation in the distribution of landholdings would appear to obscure any immediate relationship between operational landholdings and land productivity, we contend that such trends are, in fact, consistent with the often observed inverse farm size‐productivity relationship.     

Demand for a labor‐based drought insurance scheme in Ethiopia: a stated choice experiment approach

Index‐based weather insurance is increasingly used to manage weather‐related risks in smallholder agriculture. However, cash‐constrained smallholders often lack the resources to pay an insurance premium, which may undermine its wider adoption. This article investigates alternative insurance payment methods that may help to enhance the adoption of index‐based weather insurance. We use a choice experiment to elicit smallholders’ willingness to pay in cash or labor for index‐based weather insurance in four districts in the south‐central highlands of Ethiopia. The insurance schemes were created using a fractional factorial design with three factors: work, cash, and payout rate. We analyze the choice data using a random parameter mixed logit model. We find that the average participants need a subsidy to pay cash for insurance because their willingness to pay is less than the expected cost of the insurance. On average, they are willing to pay only 0.81 ETB (Ethiopian currency) to get an expected yearly payout of 1 ETB. However, most are willing to participate in work‐for‐insurance programs at lower daily wage rates than is common for other work programs in Ethiopia.     

Agent‐based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations: litchis in northern Thailand

This study uses an agent‐based model for ex ante assessment of agricultural innovations. The model builds on whole farm mathematical programming (MP) and extends the methodology with a spatial representation of the system, the heterogeneity of farm households and landscapes, and the interaction between farm households. We apply the model in a northern Thai watershed to study the potential of four innovations to increase the profitability of litchi orchards. Cost‐benefit analysis shows that each innovation would increase the profitability of litchi growing; however, the results of the agent‐based model show that at current price levels these innovations alone would not be enough to stem the decline in the area under litchis. The model was validated and the sensitivity of the results tested for variations in the irrigated water supply and liquidity. We report on how farmers responded to these results and discuss the implications for other areas in northern Thailand.     

Understanding farmers’ preference for traits of chickens in rural Ethiopia

Traditional poultry production plays an irreplaceable role in the sustenance of livelihoods in rural Ethiopia. Ironically, however, much has been done to replace indigenous poultry breeds with exotic genetic resources regardless of the importance producers and consumers attach to attributes of the resources. This study aims at informing policy to establish effective indigenous poultry breeding and conservation programs. Discrete choice experiment (DCE) was employed to generate data. Designing of the DCE involved identification, definition, and measurement of attributes of adaptive, productive, and sociocultural importance considering the multiple functions of village chickens. Random parameters logit and the generalized multinomial logit (G‐MNL) models were used to estimate taste parameters. Economic values of traits of chickens were estimated using the utility in willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) space approach, based on G‐MNL model formulation. The results show that important traits of chickens to farmers are mothering ability, diseases resistance, and meat and eggs taste. These findings question the appropriateness, at least in the prevailing production system, of the Ethiopian national government's effort to improve productivity in village poultry by targeting specialized egg‐layer improved chickens. The findings also suggest that poultry breeding programs aiming to provide readily acceptable breed technology by farmers need to prioritize traits of adaptive importance, and mothering ability, instead of focusing on egg productivity only. The key implication is that the unique qualities of the indigenous poultry breeds need to be carefully identified and prioritized before resorting to those that proved to be successful in different production systems.     

Human health and pesticide use in Sub‐Saharan Africa

While pesticides–such as insecticides, fungicides, and herbicides–are often promoted as inputs that increase agricultural productivity by limiting a range of pre‐harvest losses, their use may have negative human health and labor productivity implications. We explore the relationship between pesticide use and the value of crop output at the plot level and a range of human health outcomes at the household level using large‐scale, nationally representative panel survey data from four Sub‐Saharan African countries where more than 10% of main season cultivators use pesticides. We find that pesticide use is strongly correlated with increased value of harvest, but is also correlated with higher costs associated with human illness, including increased health expenditures and time lost from work due to sickness in the recent past. We take these results as suggestive that the findings of more targeted studies are indeed generalizable beyond their original, purposively chosen samples.     

Measuring Food Product Differentiation by Quality Ratings: A Cross‐Entropy Analysis of Specialty Coffee e‐Auctions

Food quality ratings can be used for product differentiation and strategic marketing. This article develops a differentiation measure based on the cross‐entropy of two distributions for speciality coffees. It examines whether quality ratings achieve their objectives for speciality coffee supply chains. The estimation, using e‐auctions data, indicates that the quality rating is more informative in the Cup of Excellence (CofE) relative to the Q auction. To determine significance, a statistical test for comparing the information measure across different e‐auctions and segments of the quality rating was developed. The significant difference between the two auctions is not a surprise as the auctions trade coffee lots of different volumes and the quality evaluation is more important in the case of the CofE, with its jury of renowned coffee experts. The total cross‐entropy measure of product differentiation shows that the 100‐point quality rating does not carry the same information content and meaning in the two different e‐auctions and their respective supply chains. The cross‐entropy measure of product differentiation is shown to be a good indicator of the information and the value created throughout the speciality food supply chain.     

Annual and cropping season environmental production conditions effects on smallholder technical efficiency in sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia

This article investigates the impact of environmental production conditions on smallholder farmers’ technical efficiency in Ethiopia for wheat, maize, and sorghum farming. We use a household panel data set with annual and cropping season environmental production conditions to estimate the technical efficiency scores. The results show that including environmental production conditions in the stochastic frontier has a significant impact on farmers’ technical efficiency scores. Technical efficiency scores improve when environmental production conditions are incorporated in the stochastic frontier. Thus, accounting for environmental production conditions reduces the inefficiencies that otherwise may be attributed to the characteristics of smallholder farmers.     

Consumer Acceptance of Second‐Generation GM Foods: The Case of Biofortified Cassava in the North‐east of Brazil

Biofortified staple foods are currently being developed to reduce problems of micronutrient malnutrition among the poor. This partly involves use of genetic modification. Yet, relatively little is known about consumer acceptance of such second‐generation genetically modified (GM) foods in developing countries. Here, we analyse consumer attitudes towards provitamin A GM cassava in the north‐east of Brazil. Based on stated preference data, mean willingness to pay is estimated at 60–70% above market prices for traditional cassava. This is higher than the results from similar studies in developed countries, which is plausible given that micronutrient malnutrition is more severe in developing countries. GM foods with enhanced nutritive attributes seem to be well received by poor consumers. However, the results also suggest that acceptance would be still higher if provitamin A were introduced to cassava through conventional breeding. Some policy implications are discussed.     

Production Efficiency of Jasmine Rice Producers in Northern and North‐eastern Thailand

The paper jointly evaluates the determinants of switching to Jasmine rice and its productivity while allowing for production inefficiency at the level of individual producers. Model diagnostics reveal that serious selection bias exists, justifying use of a sample selection framework in stochastic frontier models. Results from the probit variety selection equation reveal that gross return (mainly powered by significantly higher Jasmine rice price), access to irrigation and education are the important determinants of choosing Jasmine rice. Results from the stochastic production frontier reveal that land, irrigation and fertilisers are the significant determinants of Jasmine rice productivity. Significantly lower productivity in Phitsanulok and Tung Gula Rong Hai provinces demonstrate the influence of biophysical and environmental factors on productivity performance. The mean level of technical efficiency is estimated at 0.63 suggesting that 59% [(100 ? 63)/63] of the productivity is lost due to technical inefficiency. Policy implications include measures to keep Jasmine rice price high, increase access to irrigation and fertiliser availability, as well as investment in education targeted to farm households which will synergistically increase adoption of Jasmine rice as well as farm productivity.     

The Economic Growth Impacts of Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil: An Inter‐regional Analysis

Since 2001, Brazil has experienced a sharp increase in sugarcane production due to the upsurge in demand for sugar and ethanol, two products derived from sugarcane. This study analyses the impacts of these sugarcane expansions on economic growth. The effects are examined at the municipality level in Brazil as a whole and in the main sugarcane producing regions, the North‐Northeast (NE) and the Centre‐South (CS). In this latter region, an additional distinction is made between the state of São Paulo (SP) and the Centre‐South region excluding São Paulo (CSex) since the bulk of the recent expansion took place in SP while most of the future expansions are planned in CSex. Estimators based on the propensity score are used to construct two types of counterfactual scenarios. The estimations in the first scenario show that municipalities in NE and CSex that expanded sugarcane production experienced economic growth as a result. No significant effect was found in SP. The second scenario focuses on CSex and establishes that sugarcane non‐expanding municipalities in this region would have had higher economic growth if they had increased sugarcane production. The results of this study suggest that future sugarcane plantations should indeed be located in CSex because they contribute to economic growth.     

Cattle Farmers’ Preferences for Disease‐Free Zones in Kenya: An application of the Choice Experiment Method

Management of livestock diseases is important in ensuring food safety to consumers in both domestic and export markets. Various measures are prescribed under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization. In order to prevent the spread of trans‐boundary cattle diseases, the SPS agreement recommends the establishment of Disease‐Free Zones (DFZs). These have been implemented successfully in some major beef‐exporting countries, but in Kenya are still at a pilot stage. To understand Kenyan farmers’ preferences on the type of DFZ that would be readily acceptable to them, a choice experiment was conducted using a D‐optimal design. Results show that farmers would be willing to pay to participate in a DFZ where: adequate training is provided on pasture development, record keeping and disease monitoring; market information is provided and sales contract opportunities are guaranteed; cattle are properly labelled for ease of identification; and some monetary compensation is provided in the event that cattle die due to severe disease outbreaks. Preferences for the DFZ attributes are shown to be heterogeneous across three cattle production systems. We also derive farmers’ preferences for various DFZ policy scenarios. The findings have important implications for policy on the design of DFZ programmes in Kenya and other countries that face similar cattle disease challenges.     

Organic certification,export market access and the impacts of policy: Bayesian estimation of avocado smallholder “times‐to‐organic certification” in Michoacán Mexico

This study analyzes organic adoption decisions using a rich set of time‐to‐organic durations collected from avocado small‐holders in Michoacán Mexico. We derive robust, intrasample predictions about the profiles of entry and exit within the conventional‐versus‐organic complex and we explore the sensitivity of these predictions to choice of functional form. The dynamic nature of the sample allows us to make retrospective predictions and we establish, precisely, the profile of organic entry had the respondents been availed optimal amounts of adoption‐restraining resources. A fundamental problem in the dynamic adoption literature, hitherto unrecognized, is discussed and consequent extensions are suggested.