Zombie Firms and Soft Budget Constraints in the Chinese Stock Market*

The growth of zombie firms has caused increasing concern. The present study seeks to understand why zombie firms have been emerging in recent 10 years and to further explore the mechanisms of their formation. Based on a dataset of Chinese listed companies from 2012 to 2016 and empirical analysis, the present study ascribes the prevalence of zombie firms to soft budget constraints. After using a modified identification model in the Chinese context, we concluded that zombie firms have access to some external resources such as credit support from banks and governmental subsidies, substantiating soft budget constraints among zombie firms. To explain this phenomenon, further analysis reveals that zombie firms bear a heavier policy burden by hiring excess employees, which will bring them more subsidies and a stronger relationship with government in return. This result indicates that policy burden is the reason for soft budget constraints, which exacerbates the zombie firm problems in China.     

China's Nonfinancial Corporate Debt Dynamics

Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's nonfinancial corporate debt has been rising steadily and rapidly, posing serious threat to China's financial stability. China's rising corporate debt is mainly attributable to three factors: worsening capital efficiency, worsening corporate profitability and high funding costs. Based on a dynamic recursive model developed in the paper, we simulate the trajectories of China's corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and find that if China fails to reverse the current trends in capital efficiency, corporate profitability and financing costs, China's nonfinancial corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio will continue to rise without converging to a limit. Against most economists' intuition, given the current trends of changes in parameters, higher economic growth will not help China to escape the corporate debt trap. On the contrary, it will make China's corporate debt problem even worse. To avert a corporate debt crisis, China needs to speed up the structural reform and change the growth paradigm so as to enhance capital efficiency and firms' profitability, while reducing firms' financing costs.     

Can Trade Facilitation Prevent the Formation of Zombie Firms? Evidence from the China Railway Express

Using data on firms listed on Chinese A‐share markets from 2009 to 2017, this paper applies the difference‐in‐difference model to test the effect of trade facilitation on preventing the formation of zombie firms. We find that the China Railway Express (CRE) significantly prevented the formation of such firms. Mechanism tests show: (i) the CRE has accelerated the speed of sales, which increased the overseas sales revenue of firms; (ii) the economies of scale and the capital accumulation effect caused by the CRE can help increase firms’ solvency and development ability. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of the CRE on preventing the formation of zombie firms is mainly reflected in non‐state‐owned firms, firms in highly competitive industries, and firms in the eastern region of China. We suggest that China should continue to promote trade facilitation by expanding the CRE and strengthening the market's dominant role in preventing the formation of zombie firms. Disadvantaged firms should seize the development opportunities brought by the CRE.     

Fiscal stress and the formation of zombie firms: Evidence from China

We investigate the causality between government fiscal stress and the formation of zombie firms. We use the province-managing-county reform recently initiated in China to exogenously identify the change in financial pressures of local governments. Matching industrial firm data and county economic data from 1999 to 2013, we carry out difference-in-differences estimation and find that the possibility of zombie firms' formation significantly decreases after the reform. Specifically, the suppression effect is more pronounced in counties with low level of initial economic development, more debt stocks, poor financial situations, and high employment pressures. Further, the mechanism analysis shows that the reform improves firms' performance, such as productivity and profitability, through the decline of tax burden, which inhibits the formation of zombie firms. Our study contributes to a profound understanding of the causes of zombie firms in a large transition economy.     

Zombie firms and over-capacity in Chinese manufacturing

The problems of over-capacity and zombie firms in China's manufacturing attract all aspects of attention, but academic analysis is still absent. Using firm-level data of Chinese manufacturing, this study first documents the problems of over-capacity and zombie firms during 2011–2013. We find that the over-capacity problem is much more severe in the northeastern and western regions of China, in heavy chemical industries, and in state-owned sector. The distribution of zombie firms is in a similar manner across region, industry and ownership. We also empirically test the relationship between zombie firms and over-capacity, finding that zombie firms cause and worsen over-capacity by crowding out healthy firms.     

关于乡村新增债务问题的调研报告

乡村债务问题是当前我国农村经济发展中的一个突出问题。文章根据实地调查获取的相关数据和资料，在深入分析乡村新增债务原因的基础上，又定量地分析了导致乡村新增债务相关因素的影响程度，与此同时，还从理论上论证了在现实情况下维持适度乡村债务规模的必要性以及应采取的相关措施等。     

Union and Debt: Evidence from Chinese Private Firms

Do unions really matter in China? Using a dataset containing more than 110 thousand Chinese private manufacturing firms, this paper is the first attempt to examine how unions' bargaining power affects firms' capital structures. We find that: (1) the firms' debt levels are often positively associated with their unions' bargaining powers; (2) when a firm is in financial distress, the management is more likely to issue more debt to strengthen its bargaining power against the union and increase its residual income; (3) compared with long-term debt, short-term debt is a better option for the management to increase its bargaining power and residual income. Our research indicates that the unions of private Chinese firms are an important policy instrument for the management rather than useless decorations, which provides valuable insights for us to understand the employee–employer relations and firms' capital structures in emerging economies.     

Unfinished business: Zombie firms among SME in Japan’s lost decades

The “soft budget problem,” by which banks loosen their lending stances toward long-term client firms despite worsening business conditions, has been widely discussed in the field of financial studies. In Japan, this problem has attracted attention particularly in connection to so-called “zombie firms,” financially weak firms sustained by discounted interest rates and evergreen lending which have become a major research and political interest in recent years. In this article, we focus on zombie firms among small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), a corporate category that has hitherto received less consideration in the discussion about Japan’s zombie firms. We find that: (1) many zombie firms exist among SME and that the zombie firm ratio increases as firm size decreases; and (2) some zombie firms eventually emerge from zombie status among SME. In other words, zombie firms are likely problematic from the view of the efficiency of the industries to which they belong. But when one considers that many zombie firms achieve revival, it would seem inappropriate to uniformly promote their elimination. Since ending zombie status seems to directly imply market exit for many SME, it is important to conduct preliminary screening to prevent the creation of zombie firms in the first place.     

股权分置改革对上市公司投资的影响——基于负债来源结构的实证分析

以我国上市公司为研究对象,考察实施一年多的股权分置改革是否对负债融资与企业投资行为的关系产生影响,从而揭示股权分置改革的成效。实证结果表明,改革加强了负债融资与企业投资的显著负相关关系;对于拥有低成长机会的企业来说,商业信用表现出对投资的约束作用;对于拥有高成长机会的企业来说,商业信用表现出对投资的抑制作用。而银行借款表现了预算软约束现象。     

非标债权业务与银行债务风险

本文基于2007-2018年我国商业银行面板数据,建立面板数据模型,实证研究了非标债权资产对银行债务风险影响.研究表明:自有资金或第三方理财导致非标债权资产占比上升会显著提升银行债务风险.导致结果的原因不是信息不透明,而是因为资源禀赋.禀赋较差的地方性银行通过非标债权业务实现金融资源的跨区对接,此举显著提高了它的债务风险.为解决内生性问题,本文分别采用银行所在地区、类型相同等其他银行非标债权资产占比平均值为工具变量的2SLS,进一步证实了上述观点.本文研究结论有助于建立更加公平的银行竞争市场.     

逆周期财政政策能够控制政府债务风险吗?——理论变迁与经验数据分析

文章基于经济理论变迁,梳理了近代以来西方预算平衡与政府债务理论变迁的主要趋势,探讨了古典经济学年度预算平衡理论与凯恩斯财政革命后的周期预算平衡理论,及其对政府债务风险管理的影响。在此基础上,文章使用跨国面板数据实证分析了发展中国家财政周期选择对政府债务风险的影响,研究发现采取逆周期财政政策的国家能够更好地约束债务风险,该实证结果在不同债务警戒标准下均保持稳健。当前,为了有效约束财政风险,我国应避免进入顺周期财政陷阱,建立可控债务风险的逆周期财政调控机制。     

Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market

This paper explores the impact of oil price uncertainty affects the cost of debt in China. By analyzing the bond data from 2008 to 2019 in China, we find that oil price fluctuation boost bond offering spread, denoting that oil price uncertainty may increase the cost of debt. This increase is likely due to higher default risks resulting from the heightened oil price uncertainty. Moreover, non-state-owned firms and those in the energy industry are more susceptible to the effects of oil price volatility. Our findings also reveal an asymmetric effect of oil price uncertainty on the cost of debt, with a stronger impact observed from positive uncertainty compared to negative uncertainty. This study contributes to the current understanding of the ways in which oil price uncertainty impacts the cost of debt in an emerging country.     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION FOR SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY APPLICATIONS

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.     

地方政府债务对经济增长的影响——基于债务规模与债务结构的双重视角

在提出测算地方政府隐性债务新方法的基础上,基于所测算的数据,从债务规模和债务结构的双重视角,全面分析地方政府债务对经济增长的影响。结果表明:就债务规模而言,当地方政府债务率相对较低时,增加债务有助于促进经济增长,但是当地方政府债务率相对较高时,进一步增加债务对经济增长的推动作用将会减弱。就债务结构而言,当地方政府的隐性债务占比过高时,地方政府债务的扩张会对经济增长产生更为显著的负向影响,这主要是因为隐性债务对民间投资的挤出作用更强。因此,防范与化解地方政府债务风险,不应采取"一刀切"的策略,而应从债务规模和债务结构两个视角综合考量,为各地量身打造防范与化解债务风险的最优策略。     

对国有企业债转股问题的思考

减轻国有企业的债务负担 ,化解国有商业银行的资产风险 ,组建资产管理公司实行债转股是方法之一。但在目前经济和社会信用背景条件下 ,对债转股作用不能高估 ,在实施过程中将出现一系列的问题 ,如果处理不当 ,会妨碍债转股政策的顺利实施和预期目的的实现。债转股作为一种缓解矛盾的手段有其积极意义 ,但它成功的关键还在于能否以此为契机 ,催生出一个国企良性运行的新体制 :切实规范企业治理制度 ,彻底转变经营管理机制 ,提高企业的资产报酬率。     

国债利率对债务稳定性影响的理论与实证研究

文章首先概括了1981年至2003年我国发行国债所引起的债务负担情况,并分析了国债利率与债务关系的相关理论模型。然后在推导多马国债模型的基础上,实证分析了我国自1981年以来国债发行利率对债务稳定性的影响的定量关系。分析表明:当国债利率高于经济增长率时,国债所引起的债务     

A 50-year history of “zombie firms” in Japan: How banks and shareholders have been involved in corporate bailouts?

We review long-term changes in “zombie firms” in Japan over this half-century using listed firm data with a framework in which the concept of “zombie firms” includes possible efficient bailouts. The first wave of zombie firms occurred during the period of main banks (hereinafter MBs). MBs were able to actively choose which firms would receive bailouts at the time. However, commonly held beliefs about MBs’ monitoring power and the special role of corporate groups and long-term credit banks for bailouts are not supported. In the largest wave of the lost decade, we find the zombie firm problem in the manufacturing sector was just as serious as the non-manufacturing in terms of firm count. Moreover, the pathological phenomena such as unwilling concentration of loans to MBs were also rather typical in the manufacturing. Soft budget constraints have continued in the manufacturing even after the resolution of banks’ non-performing loans since the bubble burst came to an end, leading to the manufacturing-centered third wave of zombie firms following the Global Financial Crisis.     

我国上市公司债务融资期限结构与公司业绩关系的实证研究——基于制造业与商品流通业的对比分析

本文以46家制造业A股上市公司和35家商品流通业A股上市公司的相关数据为样本。将样本公司的债务按期限划分为长期负债和短期负债两类,用SPSS15.0统计软件对样本公司2003～2007年间的相关数据进行统计分析,研究这两大行业的上市公司负债期限结构与公司业绩的关系。研究结果显示:无论是制造业还是商品流通业,短期负债与公司业绩均呈负相关关系;长期负债与公司业绩均呈正相关关系。     

Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China

We study the changing landscape of credit market guarantees by examining the risk-pricing of the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, which have experienced rising defaults across provinces from a zero record. Using primary market bond issuance data, we identify a province premium that captures the perceived local government support for local SOEs. We find that on average the perceived local government support is on the decline, while the subnational debt market has become more segmented since 2018. This evidence is found to be closely related to the divergence in local government’s fiscal space and the occurrence of SOE default incidents in the area, highlighting the adverse linkage between public debt and corporate financing costs.     

地方政府债务对人地城镇化失衡的影响——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

基于全国2010—2019年30个省区市的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证检验地方政府债务对人地城镇化失衡的影响。结果显示：人地城镇化失衡具有空间溢出效应;地方政府债务水平的提高加剧了人地城镇化失衡;分区域来看,相较于东部地区,中西部地区地方政府债务对人地城镇化失衡的正向作用更为突出。基于此,提出深入地方政府政绩考核体系改革和增强地方债务支出结构管理的建议。