Do People Accurately Anticipate Sanctions?

We provide lab data from four different games that allow us to study whether people have accurate expectations regarding monetary sanctions (punishment/reward) and nonmonetary sanctions (disapproval/approval). Although the strength of the sanction is always predicted with some error (particularly in the case of monetary sanctions), we observe that (i) most subjects anticipate correctly the sign of the average sanction, (ii) expectations covary with sanctions, (iii) the average expectation is very often not significantly different than the average actual sanction, and (iv) the errors exhibit no systematic bias, except in those situations where rewards are frequent. In this line, we find some evidence that punishment is better anticipated than rewards.     

DOES MOTHER'S EDUCATION MATTER IN CHILD'S HEALTH? EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA1

Using the 1993 South Africa Integrated Household Survey, this paper studies the effect that mother's education through the knowledge channel has on children's health using height for age Z‐scores as health measure. Under a two‐stage least square methodology we find that an increase in 4 years on mother's education (approximately 1 standard deviation) will lead to an increase of 0.6 standard deviations on her child's height for age Z‐score. We also find, as the medical literature suggests, support for the hypothesis that mother's education is more important for children older than 24 months of age.     

When Does Economic Growth Reduce Poverty and Strengthen the Middle Class? A State-Level,Sector-Specific Analysis of Peru

Using novel state-level data of Peru from 1997 to 2010, we investigate how growth in different sectors affects poverty rates and the middle class. Our results indicate that only the manufacturing sector seems to robustly decrease poverty. Growth in the service sector emerges as a meaningful predictor of a rising middle class. Allowing for regional differences, we find substantial variation across the 25 Peruvian states with large shifts in magnitudes, signs, and statistical importance. Beyond the immediate implications for Peru, these findings highlight the importance of analyzing the link between economic performance and poverty rates on a subnational level. Policy implications are likely to differ substantially, depending on the source of economic growth and regional particularities.     

Total factor productivity, the east Asian miracle, and the world production frontier

Total Factor Productivity, the East Asian Miracle, and the World Production Frontier. — The post WWII growth of the East Asian Tiger states has stimulated the discussion about its determinants. Young and Krugman hold that high capital accumulation rather than gains in efficiency or technological progress has spurred growth. Nelson and Pack, however, have recently criticized the methods of measuring technological progress. Applying the nonparametric approach to frontier production function determination and the Malmquist index of total factor productivity change, the authors take up this criticism. They calculate productivity indicators for a sample of 18 American, Asian, and European countries. For the Tiger states, their results confirm that capital accumulation was the main source of growth in 1960-1973, whereas they find evidence for an increasing importance of efficiency improvements for the growth in 1973-1990.     

Does the Group Leader Affect Repayment Performance Differently?

Theoretical models of group lending assume that all group members are identical in terms of their effect on repayment performance. In practice, however, this may not be true. We use a unique data set obtained from a survey of 160 borrowing groups in Jordan to investigate the impact of joint liability, screening and monitoring activities, and social ties of the group leader and other group members on repayment performance as measured by the intensity of default using a negative binomial II model. Our results suggest that the joint liability and screening activities of the leader are more strongly related to repayment performance than the same variables for the rest of the group members. Social ties of all members have a significant effect on repayment, while monitoring activities have no effect.     

The Cost of Living and Terror: Does Consumer Price Volatility Fuel Terrorism?

Do fluctuations of consumer prices prompt terrorist activity? A latent assumption among conflict scholars is that price volatilities for basic consumer goods produce hardships for people that increase popular grievances, damage government legitimacy, and raise the chances for terrorism. In this study, I use a series of regression estimations to test volatility in consumer price indices for energy, housing, and foods as predictors of domestic and transnational terrorism in a cross section of countries. I produce several findings. First, food price fluctuations are significant predictors of multiple measures of terrorism, while energy and housing prices are not. Second, rapid food price increases, not decreases, promote terrorist attacks. Third, the relationship between food price volatility and terrorism is most consistently present in nondemocratic and “hybrid” political regimes and in medium human development countries rather than in democracies or in countries characterized by very high or very low economic development.     

IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON GOVERNMENT POPULARITY: AN ECOWAS INVESTIGATION

A main focus of this paper is our analysis of the vote function using the vote share of government parties as the proxy variable for government popularity. Utilising Pedroni's (1999 ) panel cointegrated test and the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique, we empirically examine the long-run co-movement relationship in a bivariate model between government popularity and macroeconomic outcomes as well as a lag term in accordance with updated data for 11 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) during the 1975-2005 period. The results indicate the existence of panel cointegration relationships in our empirical model. The panel FMOLS shows that several macroeconomic shocks are responsible for positive contributions to government popularity, especially in regard to economic growth and government expenditures. By contrast, currency depreciation, higher interest payments, and a greater taxation burden on households all contribute to lower government support in our sample countries. Based on such evidence, important policy implications emerge for ECOWAS.     

EXPLORING ATTRITION BIAS: THE CASE OF THE KHAYELITSHA PANEL STUDY (2000-2004)

Attrition bias is a problem for users of panel data. Researchers need to know what socio‐economic factors are associated with attrition, and whether this is of relevance for the kind of analysis they want to conduct. This paper discusses attrition bias in the 2000/2004 Khayelitsha panel study. It shows that women, shack‐dwellers and people living in smaller households are more likely to attrit, but that the impact of these variables on the probability of attrition is relatively small. The implications for labour‐market analysis are then explored using Mincerian earnings functions and a probit regression on whether respondents are wage‐employed or not. The coefficients generated using a restricted sample of non‐attritors do not differ significantly from those generated by the entire sample. This suggests that attrition bias in this particular data set is not a problem for this kind of labour market analysis.     

Income Inequality and Health: Do the Equivalence Scales Matter?

The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between income inequality and health in the European Union countries using new data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). The heterogeneity of the households has been approached using different equivalence scales. A variety of different model specifications were tried using different dependent variables such as life expectancy at birth and child mortality. The results give support to the influence of income inequality on health indicators using aggregate data and panel techniques, and show the sensitivity of the Gini index to the equivalence scale considered.     

Increasing Downside or Outer Risk? The Challenge of Measuring Competitive Imbalance in Closed and Open Leagues

In two seminal articles, Menezes, Geiss, and Tressler (1980) and Menezes and Wang (2005) have defined the concepts of increases in downside and in outer risk. Such notions are useful to give intrinsic characterizations of the notions of prudence and temperance. In this article, we explore a new application about higher‐order risk preferences: the measurement of competitive imbalance in sports leagues. We show that desirable properties for the measurement of imbalance are the inclination to any increase in downside risk in the context of closed leagues, and the aversion to any increase in outer risk in the context of open leagues.