Accounting Discretion and Managerial Conservatism: An Intertemporal Analysis*

Accounting discretion and the principle of conservatism are two salient features embedded in financial reporting systems. Arguably, the practice of conservative accounting choices can never be well understood without incorporating their effect on future periods (the intertemporal effect). This paper provides one explanation for managerial conservatism in a two‐period agency model with hidden information (a binary project type) and hidden actions (the agent's efforts). A piece‐wise linear incentive scheme with accounting earnings as the performance measure is employed. The agent's discretion is the choice of a depreciation method. Discretion is valuable if and only if the agent's marginal productivity of a “bad” project is greater than that of a “good” project, but not to an extreme degree. A conservative depreciation method decreases current compensation in exchange for a “bet” on future compensation and, hence, serves as a commitment device for the agent to signal that the prospect is indeed good. The accounting mechanism replicates the performance of the optimal direct mechanism.     

Employee Stock Option Fair‐Value Estimates: Do Managerial Discretion and Incentives Explain Accuracy?*

We examine the determinants of managers' use of discretion over employee stock option (ESO) valuation‐model inputs that determine ESO fair values. We also explore the consequences of such discretion. Firms exercise considerable discretion over all model inputs, and this discretion results in material differences in ESO fair‐value estimates. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that a large proportion of firms exercise value‐increasing discretion. Importantly, we find that using discretion improves predictive accuracy for about half of our sample firms. Moreover, we find that both opportunistic and informational managerial incentives together explain the accuracy of firms' ESO fair‐value estimates. Partitioning on the direction of discretion improves our understanding of managerial incentives. Our analysis confirms that financial statement readers can use mandated contextual disclosures to construct powerful ex ante predictions of ex post accuracy.     

Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM

Recent proposals for reforming the international monetary system often focus on a target zone arrangement for the dollar, euro and yen. Theoretical research suggests that a credible target zone confers on a participant some short-run discretion in the setting of interest rates, and recent empirical research suggests that this was indeed the case for the Classical gold standard, perhaps the best example of a credible target zone. In this paper we examine the extent of short-run interest rate discretion (SRID) conferred by another experiment with target zones, namely the ERM experience. Amongst our findings is the result that countries that had a credible commitment to the ERM did indeed have SRID.     

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN

This study investigates the international transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, and between the ASEAN nations and their major trading partners, the United States, Australia, Japan, and the European Union. The research uses trade flows to show the pattern of economic interdependence, and principal components analysis, vector autoregressions, and spectral analysis to explore the possibility of a unique ASEAN business cycle. Binational VARs are used to examine the relative impacts of each country upon the others. Spectral analysis is used to check for the possibility of “mode-locking” between the countries that may serve to bring about some synchronization. Interestingly, there is evidence of the existence of a specific ASEAN regional business cycle. However, the VARs give only weak evidence of transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN economies and between the ASEAN economies and their major trading partners. The apparent weakness of the transmission is explained by the fact that commodity price fluctuations, wars, and major political disturbances, due to the process of nation-building, have interrupted the natural generation of business cycles, dominated the interdependence effects between nations, and hindered the measurement of international business cycle transmission. J. Japan. Int. Econ., September 1999, 13(3), pp. 230–253. Department of Economics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia 23529 Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F41, F47, E32.     

Public Spending Management and Macroeconomic Interdependence

This paper studies the domestic and international effects of “public competition policies” aimed at improving the efficiency of public spending. Such measures are modeled as an increase in the price elasticity of public consumption. The paper finds that public competition policies significantly affect macroeconomic interdependence across countries, both through the impact of the international elasticity of substitution and of mark-up effects. The paper also develops an extension in which fiscal shocks are stochastic. In welfare terms, countries with a larger government sector have an incentive to promote global public competition policies regardless of whether fiscal policy is modeled as deterministic or stochastic.

On Constraining Fiscal Policy Discretion in EMU

We review the theoretical and empirical literature on the benefitsand costs of imposing restrictions on fiscal policy. We emphasizethat the arguments in favour of restricting discretion of fiscalpolicy go beyond the notion of avoiding unsustainable budgetaryplans that can lead to pressure on the central bank. Restrictionson fiscal policy can also be justified on the grounds that discretionarychanges in spending or taxes can lead to unnecessary volatilityin output and lower economic growth. Empirically, there is evidencethat implicit constraints on governments can be as effectiveas explicit constraints (i.e. rules). From the analysis in EMUcountries in the last 10 years we conclude that there has beena significant change in the conduct of fiscal policy in termsof increased discipline and less use of discretion. However,since 1999 there are clear signs of fatigue in this processas previous trends have either stopped or even reversed.     

Quantification and Persuasion in Managerial Judgement*

Accounting involves assigning numbers to events — quantifying them. Conventional wisdom holds that putting numbers to an argument enhances its persuasive power. There is, however, little scholarly evidence to support or refute this claim, in accounting or elsewhere. In this paper, we develop an original process‐based model of how quantification influences persuasion. We posit that including a high‐quality quantified analysis in a proposal enhances its persuasive power by increasing both the perceived competence of the proposal preparer and the perceived plausibility that a favorable outcome could occur. Under some conditions, however, quantification also encourages criticism of the details of the proposal, which potentially offsets these effects. We experimentally test implications of our model in a managerial decision setting, investigating conditions in which quantification is more and less likely to result in criticism of the quantified proposal and, thus, less and more likely to be persuasive. We also test the model itself using structural equations methods. Results largely support the model, which should prove of value to researchers interested in the effects of quantification on judgements and to those interested in persuasion.     

Managerial Ability and Credit Ratings

We test whether credit rating analysts consider managerial ability as a credit risk factor and find that higher‐ability managers obtain more favorable credit ratings. Controlling for past performance, these results suggest that managerial ability is itself a significant credit rating factor. Cross‐sectional analyses indicate that managerial ability is beneficial specifically in firms facing financial or competitive pressure. We find that high‐ability managers mitigate the adverse impact on ratings of other credit risk factors including negative earnings and low interest coverage. Our results contribute to a growing literature documenting economic benefits to hiring and retaining high‐quality management.     

中美经济依存性研究

本文从溢出效应和反馈效应角度论证了中美经济之间的相互依存性，建立数理经济模型并实证分析了中美贸易乘数，指出这种反馈效应既具有扩张性，又具有收缩性，关键是其出发点不同。进而说明了中美贸易的结果是双赢的，美国从中获得的福利更大。人为消除这种依存性对中美经济都是有害的。     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

Employment and Labor Productivity in Macroregions of Russia: Spatial Interdependence

The article shows that indicators of spatial distribution of employed and economic potential are becoming the key indicators of the economic development of Russia. It has been revealed that the localization of these resources determines the regional differentiation in labor productivity. Regression relationships between labor productivity, employment, urbanization parameters, agglomeration and localization have been determined. The forecast of regional localization of employment on macroregions of Russia has been carried out.     

Growing Economic Interdependence of China and the Gulf Cooperation Council

The six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council （GCC） have approximately 40percent of total proven oil reserves as well as 23 percent of the world＇s gas reserves. Although rising oil revenues have led to greater outward investment flows, there is also a growing need for significant expansion of the domestic energy sector＇s capacity. Meanwhile, China＇s sustained economic boom has resulted in China emerging as the world＇s second largest consumer and importer o foil, with close to 40percent of its import demand presently sourced from the GCC. This share will grow significantly in the future. Commercial relations between the GCC and China have to date been dominated by energy-related bilateral investment flows and China＇s oil imports. Although this will continue to be a central feature, trade and investment links in non-energy areas will further broaden and deepen the relationship. China ＇s relationship with the USA in terms of energy is also emerging as a major issue. Rather than being competitors, a mutual dependence on stable and secure supplies from the GCC highlights the need for a cooperative relationship.     

董事会勤勉、管理者过度自信与企业过度投资

选取深沪A股上市公司2006-2010年数据为样本,对董事会勤勉及管理者过度自信与企业过度投资的关系进行理论与实证研究,分析了董事会勤勉对企业由于管理者过度自信所导致的过度投资的治理效应。结论表明:董事会勤勉与企业当年过度投资水平不存在显著相关性;董事会勤勉度的提高也不能改善企业下一年过度投资状况;管理者过度自信会引发企业过度投资;董事会勤勉对企业由于管理者过度自信所导致的过度投资没有显著治理作用。     

Interdependence between the information evaluator and the decision maker*

Abstract. A game theoretic model of the relationship between an information evaluator and a decision maker is formulated, and interdependence analysis is employed to decompose the game into several components. Each of these components represents one aspect of the interdependence relationship experienced by the information evaluator and decision maker. The analysis is then employed to distinguish among game forms. Résumé. Un modèle de la théorie des jeux établissant une relation entre un évaluateur d'informations et un décideur est proposé, et l'analyse d'interdépendance est utilisée afin de décomposer le jeu en plusieurs parties. Chacune de ces composantes représente une facette de la relation d'interdépendance vécue par l‘évaluateur d'informations et le décideur. Par la suite, l'analyse sert à établir une distinction parmi les “formes de jeu”.