农村养老保险、养老金待遇与最优政策组合

采用OLG模型考察了农村养老保险个人缴费率、集体补助率、地方政府补贴率、基础养老金率和人口增长率对资本积累、人均消费和养老金的影响,并寻求政策变量最优组合。研究发现,提高个人缴费率会增加养老金;提高集体补助率、地方政府补贴率以及人口增长率下降都会增加资本劳动比、人均消费和养老金;提高基础养老金率会降低资本劳动比和人均消费而增加养老金。同时,最优的地方政府和集体补贴率随最优基础养老金率同方向变动。若最优基础养老金率不变,则人口增长率小幅变动会引起最优地方政府和集体补贴率大幅反向变动。根据影响方向和力度,应提高个人缴费率和集体补助率,调整财政支出结构以维持现有基础养老金率、相应提高地方政府补贴率,控制人口增长率。     

Generational accounting in Korea

This paper reassesses the long-term fiscal position of Korea using generational accounting, modified to reflect special features of the Korean fiscal situation, notably prospective changes in public pension benefits due to the pension system's maturation and increasing expenditure on social welfare programs consistent with convergence to levels in other OECD countries. Our findings suggest that unless policy toward existing generations is substantially altered, future generations will face a heavy fiscal burden. For reasonable growth and interest rate assumptions, the difference between 2000 newborns and those born after 2000 ranges from 60 to 180%. We also find that a substantial part of the fiscal burden on future generations is explained by the long-run budgetary imbalances of public pensions and Medical Insurance. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (2) (2006) 234–268.     

Human capital accumulation in emerging Asia, 1970–2030

Emerging Asian economies have made strong progress in improving educational capital in the past 40 years. High educational attainment, especially at the secondary level, has significantly improved emerging Asia's educational achievement. Regressions show that better parental education and income, lower income inequality, declining fertility, and higher public educational expenditures account for higher educational enrollment. But Asia's average years of schooling are forecast to increase to 7.6 years by 2030, from 7.0, significantly slower than the increase of 4.1 years from 1970 to 2010. That would put emerging Asia's educational capital in 2030 at only the 1970 level of the advanced countries, or still 3.5 years behind the level of advanced countries in 2010. For sustained human development, Asian economies must invest in improving educational quality and raising enrollment rates at the secondary and tertiary levels.     

What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

This study aims at investigating the factors associated with the start of 24 inflation episodes in 15 emerging market economies (EMEs) between 1980 and 2001. The paper employs pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. The empirical results suggest that increases in the output gap, agricultural shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy raise the probability of inflation starts in EMEs. The findings also indicate that a more democratic environment and an increase in capital flows relative to GDP reduce the probability of inflation starts. JEL no. E31, E58     

我国卫生筹资目标的可行性与筹资能力

在未来几年内,我国在卫生总费用占GDP的百分比继续增长的同时,逐步提高公共筹资的比例,相应地降低居民个人筹资比例是完全可行的,是城乡个人、社会医疗保险和财政卫生筹资能力都能承受的。现阶段农村合作医疗的筹资能力相对较弱,未来财政卫生支出需要重点向农村地区倾斜。     

The role of public pensions in income inequality among elderly households in China 1988–2013

Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project surveys for 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2013, we investigate the role of public pensions in income inequality among households with elderly members across two decades of pension policy reforms. We examine the distribution and role of public pensions at a national level and analyse the evolution of the contribution of public pensions to national income inequality across a much more extended time period than earlier studies, which have generally focused on regional changes over short periods. Our findings suggest that public pensions have become the most important source of income for households with elderly members on average in China, but the distribution of pension income is highly unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 0.74 in 2013. Public pension income has been the largest source of income inequality for elderly households since 2002 and contributed to more than half of total income inequality in the most recent year of the survey. This finding is robust against variations in the income inequality measures used. Additionally, our analysis suggests unequal distribution of pension benefits is the primary driver of pensioners' income inequality. Among several hypothetical policy changes, ensuring a minimum pension benefit for all existing pensioners seems to be the most fiscally effective option in reducing income inequality, with a 0.8% reduction in the Gini coefficient for a 1% increase in public pension expenditure.     

Pension Challenges and Pension Reforms in Oecd Countries

The 30 OECD member countries have very diverse pension systems.Current old-age public pension spending varies between lessthan 1 and more than 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).Public spending on pensions per person aged 65 or over variesfrom less than 15 to more than 40 per cent of economy-wide GDPper head. For workers entering the labour market today, thetarget pension from all mandatory sources for an average earnervaries between 30 and 100 per cent of individual earnings. Recentpension reforms have a number of common themes. First, pensioneligibility conditions have been tightened. Second, the indexationof pensions in payment has become less generous. Third, somepension schemes link benefit levels to changes in life expectancy.Finally, a number of countries have introduced defined-contributionpensions: privately managed schemes where the pension benefitdepends on contributions and investment returns. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: peter.whiteford{at}oecd.org; edward.whitehouse{at}oecd.org     

Revenue Effects of Tax Facilities for Pension Savings

Many countries have tax facilities for pension savings. These facilities are often associated with the application of the cash-flow treatment of pensions: pension contributions are tax-exempt, capital income of pension funds is tax-exempt, and pension benefits are taxed, but usually at a relatively low rate. This paper investigates the revenue effects of a cash-flow tax regime for pension savings by full present-value calculations. A comprehensive income tax system is used as a benchmark. We present an empirical analysis for the Netherlands as a typical example of a country with funded pensions. Our calculations show that current taxation of pensions implies a major tax revenue loss. For the year 2003, we estimate a fiscal pension subsidy of 1.4% to 1.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The Asian crisis,private sector saving,and policy implications

The Asian financial crisis has several critical implications for the saving behavior in the crisis-hit economies as well as in other Asian economies, which are summarized as follows: increase in economic uncertainty; increase in poverty; decrease in public confidence in financial institutions; financial liberalization; and reduction in corporate leverage ratio. Putting these together, the postcrisis saving rates in the crisis economies are likely to decrease without government interventions. Although the uncertainity factor may contribute to an increase in short-term saving, an abated level in household income and corporate output and slow GDP growth will lead to a contraction in saving rates. Increased poverty, diminished public confidence in banking institutions, and the increased variability of business sales will further contribute to a reduction in saving rates of the household and corporate sectors. Keeping this in mind, the postcrisis saving policy should consider stronger macroeconomic stabilization policies to reduce the underlying economic uncertainty to encourage long-term savings/investments; improving the public confidence in financial institutions through financial restructuring and a proper deposit insurance scheme in place; channeling informal sector saving into the formal financial institutions; and promoting propoor saving policies.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

The Future is in the Past: Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years

Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high‐performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20 years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6.02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8 percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross‐country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that: (i) the value‐added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; (ii) the value‐added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; (iii) both the value‐added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.     

公共养老基金治理中的特殊问题

公共养老基金也存在类似公司领域的控制权与所有权的分问题,需要通过科学的治理结构来提高管理效率,保障利益相关者的利最大化。但公共养老基金治理中存在一系列特殊问题,如委托代理系的复杂性,委托代理风险的特殊表现,以及外部治理机制的实效等,于这些原因,公共养老基金更应强化治理主体的建构及内部控制机制运用。本文也基于这些分析对我国的全国社保基金理事会的治理结构行了审视。     

Impact of the National Pension Fund on the Suitability of Elderly Pensions in Thailand*

This study combines a traditional hypothetical worker approach with the techniques of stochastic forecasting to provide a better sense about the suitability of the pension system for formal sector private workers in Thailand. With regard to the proposed defined‐contribution pension, we find that workers with a 40‐year career can only expect a median replacement rate of approximately 13–14 percent of their final 5 years of income. Most of the pension benefits will still likely come from the unsustainable defined‐benefit pension system and further reforms will be needed to maintain suitable pensions.     

Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses

The goal of this paper is to provide stylized facts on recovery from economic downturns and to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in promoting recovery. In particular, we examine gross domestic product (GDP) recessions and financial downturns (credit contractions and stock price declines) using data from 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies and 21 developing Asian economies. We find, in general, recovery from a GDP recession in the Asian economies is somewhat slower than in the OECD economies. However, recovery from a financial downturn is not much different between Asia and the OECD. We also find the OECD economies have been more active and effective in using counter-cyclical policies than the Asian economies in the face of GDP recessions and financial downturns. Recent evidence, however, suggests the Asian economies may have better success in the current global crisis.     

Cross‐border Mergers and Acquisitions and Financial Development: Evidence from Emerging Asia

This paper examines the relationship between cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and financial development in emerging Asian economies. Bilateral cross‐border M&A data for nine emerging Asian economies covering 2000–2009 are analyzed with a sample selection model and a panel data model. The estimation results show that although the banking sector still plays a crucial role in facilitating cross‐border M&A, the role of equity markets has increased in importance because, in addition to cash, the issuance of common stock and the exchange of stocks have become popular forms of payment for M&A deals. Because of the relatively thin market, the primary corporate bond market plays a limited role in supporting cross‐border M&A, which is in contrast to the primary public bond market. However, for the secondary market, the corporate bond market is more effective in facilitating cross‐border M&A. The results also show that financial development in terms of stock and bond markets in their home countries tends to become more important when the target firms reside in more developed countries. In addition to financial development, the paper shows that most cross‐border M&A are invested in technology‐related and resource‐based industries while cheap labor industries are relatively less attractive.     

广东省财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于1978～2007年时间序列数据的验证

政府财政支出与经济增长之间的关系如何,学术界目前还没有一致性的结论。本文通过对广东省1978～2007年的财政支出与GDP时间序列数据进行分析,认为广东省GDP和财政支出总量之间有着正向的关系,并且它们之间有着长期稳定的均衡关系,经济增长是财政支出增长的格兰杰原因,而不是相反。     

A New Pension Settlement for the Twenty-First Century? The UK Pensions Commission's Analysis and Proposals

This article summarizes the analysis and recommendations ofthe UK Pensions Commission, which reported in November 2005.The UK faces similar demographic challenges to other nationsfrom increasing longevity and past fertility declines. However,in the face of them, both state and private pension provisionare in decline for younger cohorts. The Commission proposesreforms to the state pension system which would make it moregenerous, less means-tested, and more universal than it wouldotherwise become. This would require both higher public spendingon pensions as a share of GDP than now, and a gradual increasein state pension age after 2020. It also proposes establishmentof a new National Pension Savings Scheme, into which workerswould be automatically enrolled (with the right to opt out)if they were outside good employer provision, together withmeasures to facilitate later and more flexible retirement. Footnotes ¹ E-mail address: j.hills{at}lse.ac.uk     

Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects

Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past three decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region's past economic growth remain relatively limited. We also make long-run growth projections for developing Asia by combining the growth accounting framework with growth regression approach. Our baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next two decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. Even under the baseline scenario, the region's share in the world economy will increase from the current 34 percent in 2009 to close to a half in 2030.     

Trade policies and growth in emerging economies: policy experiments

This paper analyzes a dynamic endogenous growth model to quantify the channels through which international trade affects longer-term growth of an emerging economy, with an emphasis on the role played by trade policies. In the model, trade can promote (i) labor migration from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors and (ii) the inflow of foreign knowledge to enhance productivity in non-agricultural sector. The model is estimated to match with the data from selected advanced and emerging economies. Policy experiments suggest that openness to trade and elimination of trade barriers would raise annual real GDP growth by up to three percentage points for decades.