The cohort effect of political change on language speaking: Evidence from Hong Kong

It has been proven that language is a symbol of culture and politics. This study investigates the cohort effect of Hong Kong's handover on the language spoken in adulthood based on the 2006 and 2011 Hong Kong population censuses. We find that Mandarin is more likely to be used by Hong Kong natives who were exposed to the transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 during their school-age years, especially the generation that were exposed during their primary-school years. This cohort insisted on speaking Mandarin, even when the political environment changed from 2006 to 2011. Our evidence reveals that the political change that occurs during one's school-age years has a long-term impact on an individual's behaviour in adulthood. Further discussion indicates that exposure to political change such as regime transfer during school-age years impacts an individual's national identity.     

Extramarital Affairs, Marital Satisfaction, and Divorce: Evidence from Hong Kong

This article provides the first empirical study on how the perceived changes of marital satisfaction affect marital stability using a unique data set obtained in Hong Kong. It is found that the change of marital satisfaction due to extramarital affairs clearly increases the probability of divorce, but it is not the only determinant of marital instability. In particular, the presence of dependent children in a family and good marital quality before the discovery of extramarital affairs would lower the probability of divorce. Moreover, this article generates several interesting policy implications. (JEL D1 , J1 )     

The impact of government intervention on stock returns: Evidence from Hong Kong

In August 1998, the Hong Kong government, in her effort to restore investors' confidence, purchased shares of the 33 stocks that constitute the Hang Seng Index (HS). We find that the government's action not only reverses the declining trend of the stock market but also reduces the volatility of the market. The main beneficiaries of the action are the shareholders of the stocks that are purchased by the government during the intervention period, and the increase in stock prices persists. Although the shareholders of non-Hang Seng stocks also gain from the intervention, their gain is smaller and does not last.     

Overeducation and Undereducation and their Effect on Earnings: Evidence from Hong Kong, 1986–1996

The expansion of the higher education sector and the structural changes in the Hong Kong economy in the late 1980s raise the issue of the incidence of overeducation in the Hong Kong labor market. Using the 1991 Hong Kong Census, and the 1986 and 1996 Hong Kong By‐census data, the present study finds that the incidence of overeducation in Hong Kong is only a temporary phenomenon. The rate of return to education increased, while the premium to overeducation decreased, between 1986 and 1996. It also finds that there is a tradeoff relation between education and experience.     

Deregulation, competition and consumer welfare in a banking market: evidence from Hong Kong

This paper examines competition among commercial banks following deregulation in a small open economy. I jointly estimate a system of differentiated product demand and pricing equations, and use conduct parameters to identify market structure. Overall, I find positive outcomes for the banking deregulation, which suggest that the benefits of deregulation understood in large industrialized economies indeed apply to a small open economy. Encouragingly, the industry becomes more competitive and the consumers are better-off after the deregulation. Empirical results also indicate that the banking sector is characterized by non-cooperative competitive behavior. Bank size is an important determinant of consumer’s bank choice.     

The Credibility of the PRC Commitment to a Market Economy in Hong Kong: Hypotheses and Evidence

How credible is China's commitment to a market economy in Hong Kong after 1997? Events signaling changes in commitment and the movement of time closer to 1997 should reduce the relative prices of immobile assets if commitment is not fully credible. Several factors may offset these effects: anticipatory adaption, growing dependence on China-related trade, and Chinese investment in Hong Kong. Analysis of data on incorporation and investment decisions, the relative sensitivity of the stock prices of firms with different asset mobility to political events, and the market for office space most strongly support hypotheses about credibility, adaption, and demand augmentation.     

The market distortion effects of mortgage tightening and transaction taxes: Evidence from Hong Kong residential resale market

By using transaction-level data, we study if two popular policies intended to cool an overheated housing market would serve their intended purposes. We found both mortgage tightening and Special Stamp Duties (SSD) actually led to higher starter home prices in Hong Kong. Mortgage tightening shifted the demand for bigger homes to that for smaller ones. The SSD that applies to resales within a specified period of the original purchase lowered turnover across the housing market. The decline in turnover is, as expected, sharpest for small flats, implying a dramatic shrinkage in second-hand supply of such homes, driving their prices up. We also found transactions bunching as many homes are held till the SSD is no longer applicable, indicating lock-in effects. Relative to those that are not subject to the SSD, the prices of properties subject to the levy are found to be lower by 6.8%.     

新兴市场引入卖空机制对股市的冲击效应--来自香港证券市场的经验证据

卖空交易机制作为证券市场中的重要交易制度,对完善市场功能起着不可或缺的作用,那么在新兴市场国家中引入卖空交易机制是否会加剧整个市场的波动?文章利用我国香港股票市场上的数据进行实证检验,发现卖空交易机制对整个市场的影响是一个相当复杂的过程,最终的影响方向(加剧市场波动还是平抑市场波动)取决于市场中卖空交易者类型、操作策略及交易信息的公开程度.如果仅考虑投机性卖空者的操作对整个市场的影响,则卖空交易机制的存在会对整个市场的波动起到"缓冲"作用,在一定程度上会对市场上的暴涨暴跌现象起到平抑作用,而不会加剧整个市场的波动.     

最后贷款人(LLR)制度:香港经验及其启示

本文在对香港金融管理局履行最后贷款人角色和国内近几年地方政府动用公共资源对地方法人类金融机构进行资本救助、财务重组情况进行总结的基础上,研究认为:处置地方法人类金融机构的风险,必须发挥地方政府的积极作用;建立我国基于市场机制作用的真正的LLR制度;更严格地限制异地非金融机构类股东入股地方法人类金融机构;适当扩大外汇储备的运用范围.     

Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong

In the wake of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the macroeconomic discussion has returned to the topic of proactive macroprudential policies. The use of loan‐to‐value (LTV) policies to curb booming property markets has long been used by Hong Kong's monetary authorities to actively manage the potential fallout from housing price bubbles. In 2013 the Hong Kong authorities supplemented the LTV policies with property transfer taxes. Here, we also analyse the merits of these tax‐based macroprudential policies in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Furthermore, we calibrate the impact of both countercyclical macroprudential policies employed in conjunction with forward guidance. We conclude that both policy approaches can limit the pace of housing price increases. As regards the comparison of LTV and tax‐based measures, it turns out that property acquisition taxes are more effective.     

Effects of cross-border capital flows on stock returns of dual-listed firms in mainland China and Hong Kong: Evidence from a natural experiment

This study analyses the effects of the Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Market Connect policy on the price disparity between A-shares and H-shares of dual-listed companies (DLC). Using a difference-in-difference estimation method, we show that the policy decreases the relative twin cumulative abnormal returns of treated DLC by 3% and narrows the price gaps between A-shares and H-shares. We determine that the rising demand for H-shares, which are newly accessible by mainland investors, drives the price of H-shares up. By contrast, the price of A-shares remains unchanged. Further analysis reveals that cross-border capital flow is the main force of the policy.     

Foreign entrants and domestic entrepreneurship: Evidence from Vietnam

This paper examines the impacts of foreign entrants and international trade on potential entrants in Vietnam. Based on a discrete entry model, estimates show that foreign direct investment (FDI) stimulates more domestic entrants in the short run, while the aggregate effect of FDI varies across FDI types. Horizontal FDI tends to have no impact on local start‐ups while vertical FDI is found to have a positive impact on the inflow of domestic entry for only the backward linkage and not for the forward linkage. Moreover, industries with more exports accommodate more domestic entrants, whereas imports tend to deter domestic start‐ups.     

沪深港股市动态联动性研究——基于三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC的新证据

随着经济全球化的迅速发展,国际资本市场呈现出一体化趋势,各地证券价格的联动性也日趋显著。本文梳理已有理论文献,并总结经验成果的不足,在此基础上,构建三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC整合分析框架,对沪深港股市联动效应进行了严谨而全面的实证检验。研究结果表明:沪深港三个市场具有联动效应,直接或间接引导对方;沪深股市对港市的新息冲击做出类似的反应,并且它们与港市的动态关联性具有趋同性,该结论为沪深两市合并提供了新证据;三个市场的相关性具有时变的动态特征,"中国因素"与"世界因素"的相关性正趋于增强。上述实证结论对投资者重新认识市场运行机制,合理制定投资策略以及监管当局有效防范国内外股市风险,推进股市整合均具有重要的启示意义。     

股票分拆与并股对市场流动性的影响 --来自于香港股票市场的证据

股票分拆与并股这类事件一直迷惑着学者和实际工作者.本文利用香港股票市场的数据,研究分拆与并股对股票的市场流动性的影响.而且还研究了这类事件对股票在市场中的交易活动性的影响,以便将交易活动性与市场流动性联系起来,通过交易活动性的变化来解释造成流动性变化的根本原因.结果表明股票在分拆后流动性增强,而且是由小额交易的活跃引起的;股票在并股后流动性减弱,是由小额交易与大额交易的不活跃共同造成的.     

Stock return reversal and continuance anomaly: new evidence from Hong Kong

Using weekly data, this article conducts a comprehensive analysis and presents new empirical evidences on the short-term stock return reversal and continuance anomaly in the Hong Kong stock market. We confirm that winner stocks behave differently from loser stocks in that the return reversal phenomenon is pervasive within past winner stocks only while past loser stocks tend to show weak return continuance. The arbitrage strategy can earn significantly positive contrarian profits, especially for small firms and illiquid stocks. The anomaly varies across different industries and is also sensitive to the market movement. Despite the existence of the anomaly, our results still in general suggest that the Hong Kong stock market is weak-form efficient because arbitrage trading costs would largely overwhelm the available profits in most cases.     

东京与香港房产泡沫的破灭及其启示

上世纪80年代末至本世纪初,东京、香港两地分别出现房产泡沫破灭和股市崩盘"共振"的现象。通过对两地房价与收入倍数、房价与资本市场、房价与货币市场的比较分析,可以看出其共同特征,即房价虚高远远超出当地居民收入的可承受能力,与资本市场的投机炒作和货币市场的流动性泛滥也有密切的关系。为了防患于未然,我们应当及早建立预警机制、大力加强金融监督、规范地方政府行为、加快产业结构调整,才能有效遏制房产投机泡沫的膨胀,促进我国房地产市场的健康发展。     

香港科技创新发展研究——基于2018—2021年香港财政预算案

香港特别行政区第五届政府自任职以来展现出致力推动本地科技创新发展的强大决心并投入大量资源和精力。本文以本届香港特区政府发布的4份财政预算案为基础,采用定性研究方法对其进行解构分析,从特区政府角度考察香港科技创新发展政策的侧重点及当前发展趋势。研究发现,本届特区政府在支持香港有关科技创新发展政策上侧重于关注资金投入、平台建设、人才培养、企业研发及STEM教育5个方面,逐步形成以发展自身优势科研领域,打造智慧城市,争夺全球科技人才,引领经济转型升级为主的科技发展趋势。最后,针对香港目前面临的发展困局,提出了推动政策落实、融入粤港澳大湾区建设、打造国际化平台等推动科技创新长远发展的政策建议。     

Foreign direct investment,heterogeneous workers and employment security: Evidence from Germany

We analyze how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects employment security using administrative microdata for German employees. Measuring FDI intensity at the industry level enables us to take into account the sum of direct effects at multinationals as well as indirect effects of FDI throughout the affected industry. We find that both inward and outward FDI significantly reduce employment security. This is particularly the case for inward FDI coming from the western part of the European Union as well as for outward FDI going to Central and Eastern Europe. The effects are sizeable for older and low‐skilled workers.     

The profitability of momentum trading strategies: Empirical evidence from Hong Kong

This paper investigates whether momentum trading strategies are profitable in the Hong Kong stock market, and examines the sources of such profitability. Momentum portfolios are significantly profitable in the intermediate term in Hong Kong, but the profits become insignificant after risk adjustment by the Chordia and Shivakumar (2001) model. The stock-specific return strategy and factor-related return strategy are analyzed to examine which portion of the total return causes stocks to enter extreme portfolios. The Chordia and Shivakumar factor-related return strategy obtains profits with a magnitude that is close to that which is attained by the total return momentum strategy. Additional evidence further supports the view that the Chordia and Shivakumar model captures momentum profits.     

Spillovers from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau Investment and from Other Foreign Investment in Chinese Industries

In its analysis of the impact of foreign investment on China's productivity, this article develops two empirical models: one using labor productivity and the other using total factor productivity (TFP). Using cross-provincial data on Chinese industries for 1993, 1994, and 1997 to regress the empirical models, it is concluded that the impact of investment differed depending on its source, with that from these overseas Chinese enterprises contributing to the spillover effect in regions with a high technology gap, whereas that from other foreign enterprises tending to improve productivity and TFP primarily in regions with a low technology gap. (JEL D24 , F13 , F15 , L60 )