China's Anti‐dumping Problems and Mitigation through Regional Trade Agreements

The present paper explores the opportunities for China's regional trade agreement (RTA) initiatives to mitigate its anti‐dumping problems. The paper highlights the severity and discriminatory nature of China's anti‐dumping problems. The high concentration of the share of anti‐dumping actions taken by the top 4 and top 8 anti‐dumping initiators is noted. Our finding of a weak effect of existing RTAs on mitigating China's anti‐dumping problems supports the argument that China could become more active in mitigating anti‐dumping problems through RTA negotiations. An RTA can include a higher level of openness in exchange for an improvement in regional anti‐dumping provisions. Case studies on RTAs involving the EU, the USA and India offer some precedents for offering inducements and modifying regional anti‐dumping provisions. The approaches for China may lie in obtaining market economy status from intensive anti‐dumping initiators at RTA levels and also altering regional anti‐dumping provisions that could be put in place in exchange for some potential concessions.     

EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

基于全球价值链的山东加工贸易升级影响因素实证研究

根据国际分工理论和全球价值链理论可知,加工贸易升级的方向是提升其在全球价值链上的分工地位。采用回归分析法对山东加工贸易在全球价值链上升级的影响因素实证分析发现,产业结构对山东加工贸易升级推动作用明显,而资本投入和实际利用外资贡献不足,劳动力投入和技术进步的作用不显著。因此,推动加工贸易升级要优化投资结构和引资结构,注重人力资本投入、鼓励企业自主创新,重视技术进步成果在生产经营中的推广应用。     

我国外资驱动型产业集群与全球价值链延伸

我国外资驱动型产业集群以加工制造切入价值链决定了其分工地位只能处于全球价值链的低端。而我国人民币持续升值、工资和原料价格上涨,本土企业很有可能被排除在跨国公司主导的全球价值链分工体系之外。基于此,改变加工制造一元切入价值链为制造和消费市场两元切入全球价值链模式,实现加工制造型经济向以知识财产为主的价值创造型经济转变是提升我国外资驱动型产业集群国际分工地位的必由路径。     

全球价值链视角的数字贸易发展:战略定位与中国路径

作为一种新型的贸易形式,数字贸易发展对国际贸易格局产生了深远影响,成为推动全球价值链重构的重要动力。在以数字贸易为主导的全球化新时代,数字贸易发展推动数字产品嵌入全球价值链,改变了全球价值创造模式和全球价值链收入分配格局,形成了全新的价值链,推动了全球价值链的转型和重构。以美欧日为代表的发达经济体,为了进一步巩固与强化数字贸易时代全球价值链的主导权,采用多举措提升数字贸易的战略定位。为推动迈向全球价值链中高端,我国应紧紧抓住数字贸易发展机遇,提升数字贸易的战略定位,加强数字贸易全球价值链的基础理论研究,构建以中国为核心的数字贸易区域价值链,改善数字贸易发展制度环境,构建支撑数字贸易发展的政策体系,加快数字化人才队伍建设。     

Value,Structure and Spatial Distribution of Interprovincial Trade in China

This study uses two different datasets to explore the stylized facts of interprovincial trade in China during the recent two decades. One dataset provides the magnitude of bilateral interprovincial goods trade calculated using firms' value‐added tax invoices. The other supplies estimates of interprovincial trade using provincial input–output tables. We find that China has both a large value and a high growth rate of interprovincial trade, but there still exists a home bias in internal trade for most provinces. In addition, disaggregation by product shows that the manufacturing sector has the largest share of interprovincial trade and this share continues to grow. Finally, the spatial distribution of trade suggests that all provinces can be clustered into a smaller number of trade areas with large intra‐cluster trade. Therefore, China's central government should make more effort to reduce local protection, stimulate domestic demand and coordinate interregional trade among local jurisdictions.     

全球价值链下传统产业集群“两难困境”的形成与突破

通过低端道路切入全球价值链,中国在规模制造能力上迅速建立了优势,成为全球最有竞争力的代工平台。然而,全球价值链治理的权利不均衡性,使中国传统产业集群陷入竞次发展、低水平创新的两难困境。要突破两难困境的束缚,必须转换发展路径,由低成本集群向创新型集群发展。文章从国内市场、基于创意资本嵌入的集群协同创新两个方面提出了相应的建议。     

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans‐Pacific Partnership: Policy Options of China

As a result of deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have embarked on the establishment of bilateral and regional trade agreements. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project database and a computable general equilibrium model, our paper focuses on the impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Chinese economy under three scenarios. The results suggest that when only the TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both the TTIP and the TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage to the Chinese economy is higher than the damage with the TTIP alone. However, the inclusion of China in the TPP has a positively effect on economic variables in China. This indicates that the impacts of China's participation in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP. Therefore, China should consider being part of the TPP to offset the negative impacts of the TTIP.     

产业价值链视角下的我国加工贸易转型升级研究

随着金融危机的不断蔓延,我国加工贸易面临着严峻的挑战。文章以系统的产业价值链的视角针对我国加工贸易技术水平低、增值率提升缓慢、核心技术受制于人等现状,结合国际贸易形势,提出加大政策引导、把握转型方向,有节有度的针对性的凹透镜转型升级策略。     

浙江外向型中小制造企业转型升级研究——基于价值链的思考

外向型中小制造企业是浙江民营经济的重要组成部分,对于区域经济发展具有重要意义。后金融危机时代,国内外经济环境的变化导致外向型中小制造企业发展遭遇困境,企业转型升级的呼声日益高涨。首先,文章从价值链的视角阐述浙江外向型中小制造企业的困境;其次,分析这些企业身陷困境的原因所在;最后,在前人研究的基础上提出企业转型升级的建议。     

Why Chinese Exports Face So Many Trade Remedy Actions: An Empirical Study Based on Multi‐country and Multi‐industry Data

This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the reasons for the large number of trade remedy actions taken against China. Using a multi‐country and multi‐industry dataset, the present paper shows that the macroeconomic situation of China's partners has a great influence on the probability of trade frictions arising with China. Moreover, the more powerful the industry is, the more likely it is to take trade remedy actions against China. The empirical results reveal that China has been hurt under the operating mechanism of the WTO, and the number of free trade agreements is negatively related to the initiation and approval of trade remedy actions. Basically, the determinants for countervailing and double remedy measures are identical, while they are different from determinants of antidumping measures. Accordingly, strengthening communication with trade partners will alleviate friction between China and its trade partners. Meanwhile, making use of foreign lobbies' power, actively integrating into the international trading system and participating in regional trade agreements are effective ways for China to deal with the “new normal” of trade frictions.     

Study of the Measurement and Determinants of Intra‐industry Trade in East Asia*

The present paper investigates the development of intra‐industry trade (IIT) among the East Asian economies over the 1970–1996 period. A dynamic index is used to capture the changes in the structure of trade flows. Based on this approach, IIT is decomposed into horizontal (HIIT) and vertical components (VIIT) and the determinants of each are investigated. The results show that both HIIT and VIIT have exhibited increased importance over the sample period in manufacturing. Using pooled panel data the two‐way trade in all measures of IIT is found to be positively related to the country‐specific variables, such as the market size, exhange rate depreciation, the levels of development and income, and negatively to the geographic proximity of the partners. Economies of scale are seen to have a positive influence on IIT and HIIT, but a negative relationship with VIIT. Although the relative openness of a country's trade regime shows no significant relationship with any form of IIT, a trade imbalance does affect IIT and HIIT flows. The findings have implications for assessing the structural adjustment costs associated with the trade liberalization process as HIIT is associated with demand for variety and relates to two‐way trade in goods of similar quality, while VIIT is driven by international specialization and differences in relative factor endowments.     

China and Natural Resource Curse in Developing Countries: Empirical Evidence from a Cross‐country Study

China's rising demand for natural resources and its growing presence in many poor and resource‐rich countries have been criticized for promoting neo‐colonialism in the 21st century. Using panel data for 135 developing countries from 1995 to 2007, the present paper empirically evaluates the validity of such claims. Our findings do not support the resource curse thesis in the areas of industrialization and economic growth. Moreover, the effect of resources is conditional on the initial quality of political institutions in a country.     

行业组织政策参与现状及影响因素——基于温州行业组织的实证研究

在法团主义的国家社会模式下,我国行业组织意图将行业利益联合到国家的决策结构中去,从而提高国家经济政策的科学性及公正性。但受到行业组织治理能力、政府部门的治理观念及双方互动过程的制度建设等因素影响,现有行业组织在政策参与方面存在参与内容局限、参与途径较少、参与机制不完善等问题。因此,为了保证行业组织广泛而理性的参与经济政策的决策,政府应转变自身在政策制订体系中的角色定位,行业组织应提升政策参与能力,双方还应改革政策参与的互动制度,最终营造一个有利于行业组织发展的法律政策环境,保证经济社会的稳定发展。     

“一带一路”能否助推我国全球价值链攀升——基于基础设施建设的中介效应分析

提升全球价值链地位是新发展格局下畅通国际循环的应有之义，"一带一路"倡议提出已近7年，其对我国全球价值链地位的影响究竟如何仍有待科学论证。文章基于2009-2017年我国30个省市的面板数据，采用双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID），考察了"一带一路"倡议的提出对我国全球价值链地位提升的影响，并从传统基础设施建设与新型基础设施建设的双重视角探讨其内在逻辑。研究发现："一带一路"倡议有效提升了我国GVC地位，且政策效应具有滞后性。将基础设施建设纳入多重中介效应模型检验发现，基础设施建设是"一带一路"建设提升GVC地位的重要途径；并且，当前传统基础设施建设对GVC地位的提升力度（1.94%）依然高于新型基础设施建设（0.09%）。进一步，面板门槛回归模型的结果表明基础设施结构具有门槛效应，新基建投资占比超过23.11%以后，其对GVC地位的中介效应才能凸显。实现基础设施的"双轮驱动"作用，需进一步加大对新基建的关注。上述结论对于"一带一路"建设背景下，科学推动基础设施建设，进而促进我国GVC地位提升具有一定的启示意义。     

冰雪旅游与区域共同富裕

冰雪旅游作为东北地区的特色优势产业,理应成为推动区域共同富裕的空间抓手。基于 2013 － 2019 年东北 6 市面板数据并构建共同富裕指标体系,运用面板数据模型实证检验冰雪旅游对区域共同富裕的影响。研究发现：冰雪旅游能带动区域共同富裕,具体来看,冰雪旅游能够显著提升城乡居民收入消费水平和可持续发展能力,对促进基本公共服务均等化有正向影响但不显著。建议通过推进惠民利企的专项扶持、构建富民兴业的产业集群、秉持行业引领的科技创新等途径,发展冰雪旅游助推区域共同富裕目标的实现。     

Regional Competition in China under the Price Distortion of Construction Land: A Study Based on a Two‐regime Spatial Durbin Model

This study examines regional competition in China by considering the spatial correlation and spillover effect of construction land price distortion using a two‐regime Spatial Durbin Model to investigate the patterns and trends of the competition between 285 cities in China from 2006 to 2015. The study finds: (i) price distortion of construction land is a common phenomenon but the distortion index generally shows a declining trend; (ii) regional competition through construction land price distortion shows a weakly intensified pattern, although the competition patterns in the four regions of China varied; and (iii) the intensity of competition between regions was lower during the 12th Five‐year Plan compared to the 11th Plan. The intensity of competition between cities was also lower inside than outside urban agglomerations. These results provide policy implications for remedying the price distortion of construction land and promoting regional coordinated development.     

企业家社会资本的测量及其对企业绩效的影响——基于新兴第三产业上市公司的实证研究

本文从纵向关系网络、横向关系网络和社会关系网络三个维度界定了企业家社会资本。基于100家新兴第三产业上市公司的实证研究发现,企业家社会资本对企业绩效存在显著影响,横向关系网络和社会关系网络能显著提升企业绩效;特别的发现是企业家的纵向关系网络（政府关系）的提升会降低企业绩效。研究结果还表明,非国有企业仍然处于劣势地位,地域差异显著影响着企业绩效,企业家年龄和学历越高对企业的贡献越大。本研究还创新性地发现,企业上市年限过长不利于企业绩效的增长。