The relationship between wage growth and wage levels

We estimate the covariance between the permanent component of wages and a random coefficient on experience in models both with potential experience and with actual experience. Actual experience is allowed to be arbitrarily correlated with both the permanent component of wages and the random component on experience. We find no evidence that workers of higher ability experience faster wage growth. Our point estimates suggest that a worker with a one standard deviation higher level of permanent ability would have a return to annual potential experience that is 0.61 of a percentage point lower. The analogous point estimate for actual experience is 0.87 of a point lower. Contrary to the popular perception, wage growth among low‐skill workers appears to be at least as high as that for a medium‐skilled worker. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of rising EU Allowance prices on core inflation in the Eurozone

This article examines the impact of EU Allowance (EUA) prices on core inflation in the Eurozone between 2005 and 2022. The empirical results suggest that a positive shock to the EUA price led to higher long-run inflation expectations and core inflation. This implies that the rise in EUA prices can be passed on to consumers and enterprises, leading to an increase in production costs and consumer prices. And, while a positive shock to EUA prices may promote investment in renewable energy in the short term, the impact is not statistically significant and does not last long. The results suggest considerable potential for European policymakers to re-examine policy mechanisms to accelerate renewable energy investment and maintain price stability in the medium term.     

The relevance of wage differentials in neoclassical urban growth

This paper examines the effect of introducing spatial wage rate differentials in a neoclassical model of urban growth. To this purpose, a formal theory of the labor market is derived which differs from the Borts-Stein-Muth one in the explicit inclusion of a wage variable. The introduction of this variable improves noticeably the empirical performance of the model.     

The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth

We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for post‐war US data. Our results suggest that increased growth uncertainty is associated with significantly lower average growth, while higher inflation uncertainty is significantly negatively correlated with lower output growth and lower average inflation. Both inflation and growth display evidence of significant asymmetric response to positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of parental leave duration on early-career wage growth

Work–family policies are meant to support labor force participants, but they often result in lower rewards for those who use them. Based on the ideal worker norm framework and signalling theory, we hypothesise that parental leave duration will result in lower wage growth, above and beyond that of having children. The 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data from 2000 to 2015 are used to test the hypotheses with a longitudinal sample (14 waves) of individuals in the United States who worked before and after taking parental leave (n = 6723). Discontinuous growth models are used to predict the penalty for parental leave duration for men and women. We find that both men and women suffer from a lower hourly wage growth for taking longer parental leave and that there are more severe penalties for taking paid parental leave than taking unpaid parental leave. Practitioner notes What is currently known?

• utilization of parental leave is significantly related to the wellbeing of employees and their families.
• However, employees are penalized for taking parental leave.

What this study adds?

• Paid parental leave, which is mostly available to skilled, professional employees carries a noticeable early-career wage penalty, but the use of unpaid leave, does not.
• Both men and women are penalized for taking parental leave, but the longer parental leaves women take increase the gender pay gap.

Implications for practitioners:

• HR practitioners should monitor whether employees are penalized for taking parental leave.
• HR practitioners should try incentivizing male employees to take parental leave that is comparable to the one taken by their female employees.

     

The growth paradox,sustainable development,and business strategy

Economic growth is a two-edged sword. Expanding economies and industries create wealth and employment, but global economic expansion is having unprecedented deleterious impacts on vital planetary systems. Despite this, the core strategic goal of all economies and many businesses continues to be the pursuit of ongoing economic growth. To resolve this paradox, a reconceptualization of firm-level growth is presented. I describe and discuss the organizational characteristics of the growth paradox and follow this with a metatheoretical review of economic, organizational, and ecological perspectives on growth. From this review, a typology of firm-level strategy is developed that radically reconceptualizes business growth as developmental activity primarily concerned with social–ecological flourishing. The features of this typology and its implications for business strategy are discussed according to three principles that emerged from the analysis: multidexterity, resilience thinking for design, and inclusive balance (embeddedness). Together, these strategy principles form the prerequisite management competencies needed for the development, implementation, and evaluation of sustainable business strategies. Transformative firm-level responses to the growth paradox are needed if sustaining forms of organizational growth are to be achieved and this paper presents a novel integrative framework for informing those strategies.     

Gender differences in early-career wage growth

In Finnish manufacturing, the gender wage gap more than doubles during the first ten years in the labour market. This paper studies the factors contributing to the gender gap in early-career wage growth. The analysis shows that the size of the gender gap in average wage growth varies with mobility status, the gap being higher with employer changes compared to wage growth within firms. Several explanations for the gender gap in wage growth based on human capital theory and theory of compensating wage differentials are considered. However, much of the gap in wage growth remains unexplained. The distributional analysis of the wage growth shows that the female wage penalty increases significantly as we move along the conditional wage growth distribution, the increase being stronger with employer changes compared to within-firm wage growth.     

The effect of match quality and specific experience on career decisions and wage growth

This paper constructs and estimates a career decision model where individuals search for both careers and firms that are a good match for their idiosyncratic skills using the NLSY79. It departs from previous papers in that career mobility decisions and participation decisions are explicitly modeled. I find substantial returns to career-specific experience. However, college graduates' wage grows little through career-match upgrading, which results in a lower incidence of career changes than high school graduates. The finding suggests that college graduates learn about their suitable careers before they enter a labor market.     

Forecast revisions of Mexican inflation and GDP growth

We analyze the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in the Banco de México’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1995–2009. The forecasts are for the current and the following year, and comprise an unbalanced three-dimensional panel with multiple individual forecasters, target years, and forecast horizons. The fixed-event nature of the forecasts enables us to examine their efficiency by looking at the revision process. The panel structure allows us to control for aggregate shocks and to construct a measure of the news that impacted expectations in the period under study. We find that respondents anchor to their initial forecasts, updating their revisions smoothly as they receive more information. In addition, they do not seem to use publicly-known information in an efficient manner. These inefficiencies suggest clear areas of opportunity for improving the accuracy of the forecasts, for instance by taking into account the positive autocorrelation found in forecast revisions.     

Blame the baby boomers for depressed wage growth

• ? While ‘blame’ may sound harsh, the reality is that in an ageing society, the over‐60s accounting for a bigger share of the workforce equals lower wage growth. This is particularly pertinent for the eurozone right now with the baby boomer generation entering the last phase of their working life. Our analysis shows that the very sizeable over‐60 cohort is depressing aggregate wage growth by up to 0.3 ppts annually. That may also help explain why inflation is still subdued .
• ? European policy makers are scratching their heads about why wage growth has not picked up in line with economic growth over the past two years. For the ECB this is relevant as it tries to understand why inflation remains low. While much of the debate centres around unemployment and the Phillips curve, this article looks at the impact of an ageing society on wage growth.
• ? Even though this is more of a structural, rather than a cyclical, perspective, it is particularly important for the eurozone economies right now, because the large post‐World War II baby boomer generation is strongly pushing up the elderly share of employment (measured as those aged 60 and above). As the share of the over 60s in total employment grows, so does their weight in aggregate wage growth.
• ? The crucial point is that wages increase with age, but at a decreasing rate, and stay essentially flat above 55. The main reasons are that the elderly invest much less in continued education and are less inclined to switch to better‐paying jobs.
• ? Our analysis shows how substantial the negative impact of an ageing workforce is on wage growth in the eurozone. By simulating an alternative demographic scenario, we estimate that wage growth in 2015–17 would have been 0.3 ppts per year higher had it not been for the ageing baby‐boomers. Similarly, forecasts for 2018–20 not accounting for the baby‐boomers may overstate wage growth by some 0.2 ppts or more annually.

     

Firm-specific wage growth and changes in the labor market for managers

This paper analyzes recent changes in the employment relationships between managers and firms. In both Becker's and Lazear's models of firm-specific wage growth, compensation is deferred from early in an employee's tenure with a firm until later in the contract. The deferred compensation bonds the worker to the firm. Based on cross-sectional data from Current Population Surveys, rates of firm-specific wage growth are estimated for the managerial labor market. The findings show that the rate of wage growth that is firm-specific for managers in manufacturing industries declined significantly during the early 1980s. It is estimated, for example, that a manager with 12 years of tenure in a manufacturing firm enjoyed, on average, a 25% wage premium in 1979 over an otherwise similar manager who was a new hire in a firm. By 1983 the firm-specific wage premium for a manager with 12 years of tenure was only 5%. These changes represent a significant reduction in the strength of the employment bond between firms and managers, and a reduction in the incentive effects previously enjoyed by firms from the use of deferred-compensation schemes. This change is consistent with the significant increases in the displacement rates of managers that occurred during the 1980s.     

欲望升腾中的困惑——中国家电连锁企业如何做强

这几年,中国家电连锁业的发展速度令人惊愕,以至于业内人士用欧洲历史上的“圈地运动”一词来形容,但问题恰恰出在这里。据商务部商业改革发展司统计,2005年国内家电连锁企业国美、苏宁、永乐和五星的门店数量飞速增长,其中最高的增长了88.1%,最低的增长了60.8%。进入2006年,经过企业间的购并,虽然各自的门店数量都有变化,但总体扩张的势头未见衰减。然而,与大气派的排兵布阵相比,中国家电连锁企业的整体效益却在下滑,主要原因是成本的增速超过了销售收入的增速。如果说这是家电连锁业的“内忧”,那么它的“外患”则更甚。一面是消费者对家…     

The consequences of minimum wage legislation

A policy which could raise wages in the low-wage labour market without job losses would be remarkable. Employers will respond to a wage floor not only by changing the employment level but by altering the other components of job packages. The'new economics'of the minimum wage largely ignores such effects.     

The government wage bill and private activity

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of public wage expenditures in U.S. data by identifying shocks to public employment and public wages using sign restrictions. We find that public employment shocks are mildly expansionary at the federal level and strongly expansionary at the state and local level by crowding in private consumption and increasing labor force participation and private sector employment. Similarly, state and local government wage shocks lead to increases in consumption and output, while shocks to federal government wages induce significant contractionary effects. In a stylized DSGE model we show that the degree of complementarity between public and private goods in the consumption bundle is key for explaining the observed heterogeneity.     

Evaluating inflation targeting based on the distribution of inflation and inflation volatility

In this paper the Financial Development Index (FDI) is used to rank 57 of the world's leading financial systems. Its calculation is based on the following 7 economic pillars: (1) Institutional environment, (2) Business environment, (3) Financial stability, (4) Banking financial services, (5) Non-banking financial services, (6) Financial markets, and (7) Financial access. Pillar (4) is constructed from bond markets, stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and derivative markets. Pillar (5) includes a country's IPO activity, namely the IPO market share, IPO proceeds amount, and IPOs share of world IPOs. The stock market index provides a short-term account of financial activities, whereas the FDI provides a long-term broader account of the financial structure and health of an economy. As the performance and success of a given monetary policy would less likely be judged on short-term dynamics, it seems sensible to use the annual FDI as one of several economic and country attributes in a policy evaluation of Inflation Targeting. The paper offers a potential outcomes analysis of the impact of inflation targeting on inflation and inflation volatility, and focuses on advanced economies that adopt ⿿inflation targeting⿿ as a formal monetary policy. In order to deal with the counterfactual question, namely what would be the inflation rate for an adopting country had it not adopted this policy, the paper offers a new matching technique that subsumes the traditional propensity scores methods as a special case. The paper has different proposals for assessing ⿿matching⿿ based on the whole distribution of any ⿿scores⿿. Additionally, the paper goes beyond the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and examines the entire distribution of inflation and its ⿿variability⿿. It is found that the adoption of inflation targeting has helped lower inflation (not just the mean) for the targeting countries. However, it is shown that exact numerical quantification of this policy effect is as highly subjective as choosing ideal social welfare functions. The paper also finds no evidence of a larger gain for ⿿late adopters⿿ of inflation targeting. As for inflation variability, there is some robust evidence of small and often statistically insignificant reduction in variability due to targeting.     

The commuting time paradox

We examine the conditions for the ‘commuting time paradox’ which states that the average commuting time does not vary between different periods. We develop therefore an equilibrium job search model with endogenously chosen commuting costs. Presuming wage bargaining between workers and firms, the optimally chosen maximum commuting costs jointly maximise the worker's and firm's payoffs. We demonstrate that when productivity levels increase over time, average commuting costs and average wages both increase, which affects the optimally chosen commuting time. We establish the conditions under which the paradox holds.     

The discourse of inflation accounting

The value of a share is given by the dividend discount model as a simple function of future dividends; but the actual determination of the share price is rarely based upon the direct estimation of these future dividends. A ranking of the valuation models used by analysts and fund managers shows a preference for ‘unsophisticated’ valuation using, for example, the dividend yield rather than the dividend discount model. This finding is shown to depend upon the practical difficulty of using currently-available information to forecast future cash flows. This difficulty limits the quantitative basis of valuations to short forecast horizons, while the subjective, qualitative estimation of terminal value assumes great importance. Crucially, both analysts and fund managers use their own assessment of management quality to underpin the estimation of terminal value, on the basis that superior quality causes outperformance and that, whereas management quality can be assessed now, future performance itself is unobservable. Linked with this and with information asymmetry, valuation is a dynamic, company-specific process, focused on personal communication with management and embodying ongoing signalling and implicit contracting, using both dividends and other variables. This method of valuation causes formal valuation models such as the dividend yield to play only a limited role. They offer a benchmark of relative price differences, which serves as a basis from which to conduct subjective, company-specific analysis and to make investment decisions; but valuation models are not used exclusively, in themselves, to value shares.     

The importance of firms in wage determination

Firms are central to many theories of the labor market. However, the actual degree to which firms shape the structure of wages is still not well understood. This paper investigates (i) the importance of firms in explaining wage differences across individuals and industries, and (ii) how the nature of interfirm mobility – job-to-job vs. job-unemployment-job – affects the relative importance of firms and workers in wage determination. Results indicate that (i) firms are much more important in explaining the variance of average wages across industries rather than across individuals, and (ii) using job-to-job transitions to identify the firm's contribution to the wage rate reduces the importance of firm wage policies in explaining wage differences by as much as 50%.     

Verifiable wage offers and recontracting: effect on wage and consumption profiles

This paper analyzes the effect of recontracting and matching verifiable wage offers on the intertemporal structure of contract wage and consumption profile for a two-period economy. A contract firm provides specific training for a worker during the first period, which increases his productivity if he stays in the second period, but the worker may quit to accept an alternative wage offer after a successful search. Wage offers are private to the worker but can be presented to the contract firm for matching. This paper shows that when capital markets are imperfect and wage offers are verifiable, the contract firm recontracts and matches any wage offers the worker receives up to the second-period productivity. The ex ante contract wage profile will be flat. Inefficient quits will be eliminated and there will be complete ex ante consumption smoothing. It is significant to note that the result of rising wage profile derived in numerous contract models is fragile with respect to assumptions on mechanism of interfirm labor mobility.     

The migration function and the Todaro paradox

"The purpose of this paper is to present a microeconomic foundation of the migration function and to discuss the impact of an increase in the job creation rate on migration and urban unemployment. Each rural worker must estimate his expected urban income on the basis of his own expected numbers of both newly created jobs and migrants during the coming period. Workers whose expected urban income is greater than the rural one decide to migrate, while those who estimate smaller urban income stay on." The geographical focus is on developing countries.