跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响--基于风险累积效应和风险传染效应的视角

从风险累积效应和风险传染效应两个视角揭示跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响机理,并基于2000年第一季度至2020年第四季度时间序列数据进行经验检验,结果表明:跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著增加了银行风险,且三者对银行风险的影响均存在显著的风险累积效应;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均通过影响金融机构人民币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构外币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构本外币各项贷款余额同比增速以及境内住户中长期消费贷款同比增速等信贷渠道显著提高银行风险承担水平,实现银行风险累积,从而增加银行风险;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著提高了股票价格、房地产价格和实际汇率的波动水平,且跨境资本流动通过股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场将波动水平传染至银行系统,增加了银行风险,股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场更是强化了这种传染效应。     

How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China＇s Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates？

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two‐sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Financial Market Bubbles and Long‐term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital outflows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy‐induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital outflows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan's experience and given that China's foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.     

Pain or Gain? Chinese Experience of Capital Account Liberalization

The neoclassical growth model predicts that capital account liberalization could potentially enhance economic performance; however, there is no consistent empirical evidence to support this positive association. Using a novel dataset of Chinese capital account openness, this paper demonstrates a positive relationship between capital account liberalization and aggregate economic performance. The difference‐indifferences method is used to capture the causal effect of capital account liberalization on economic performance by taking advantage of variations in both external financial dependence and the progress of capital account openness. We investigate three channels that could strengthen this positive relationship using a firm‐level dataset. We find that capital account liberalization could: (i) alleviate the degree of resource misallocation, and this effect is more significant in industries relying heavily on external finance and in regions with more favorable business environments; (ii) enhance firms’ total factor productivity; and (iii) promote innovation. Our findings suggest that a strategy of gradual openness will leave some leeway not only for improvement in domestic markets but also to mitigate exposure to unfavorable global shocks.     

Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China

Since 2003, China has been facing a trilemma of determining how to maintain independent monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility simultaneously, while facing persistent and substantial international capital flows. The present paper is an empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations and capital mobility regulations, measured by sterilization and offset coefficients, respectively, using monthly data between mid-1999 and March 2009. We find that the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations is almost perfect in terms of the monetary base, but not in terms of M2, and that China＇s capital controls still work but are not quite effective. Recursive estimation reveals that increasing mobility of capital flows and decreasing effectiveness of sterilizations might undercut China＇s ability to maintain monetary autonomy and domestic currency stability simultaneously. To solve the trilemma smoothly, China＇s monetary authority should continue to relax the management of the exchange rate, and take further steps towards deregulation of capital outflows.     

税收政策的变化影响公司资本结构吗？--基于两税合并的经验数据

本文基于我国两税合并的背景,运用区间分析、配对样本T检验、回归分析和倍数差分法等方法,实证检验所得税政策的变化是否对资本结构产生影响,进而验证修正的MM理论是否适应中国资本市场。研究结果表明：所得税税负水平与公司资本结构显著正相关;由于新税法的实行,所得税税率下降的内资公司相应的降低了公司财务杠杆;两税合并前后税率下降的样本公司比税率不变的样本公司的资本结构变动显著要大。综合而言,税收政策能够显著影响公司资本结构决策。     

CURRENCY CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF POST‐LIBERALIZATION TURKEY

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.     

Welfare Effects of Capital Taxation in a Small Open Economy

In a small open economy, the welfare effect of capital taxation depends on the allocation of the tax revenue as well as the tax system. If tax revenues are used to finance debt or government spending, an increase in either residential or territorial capital taxation will reduce the welfare of the representative individual. If tax revenues are transferred intergenerationally, an increase in the residential capital tax rate will increase the steady-state welfare when the after-tax interest rate is greater than the growth rate. If the revenue is rebated to the tax payer, an introduction of territorial capital taxation may increase welfare when the growth rate is relatively high. In the case where either the revenue from residential capital taxation is rebated to the tax payer or the revenue from territorial capital taxation is transferred intergenerationally, the welfare-maximizing tax rate appears to be zero.     

Review Essay: Is a Chilean-Style Tax on Short-Term Capital Inflows Stabilizing?

Open Economies Review - In the wake of the 1997–1998 East Asian financial crisis, some economists recommended that affected countries adopt a Chilean-style tax on short-term capital inflows...     

Capital Flows,Exchange Rates,and the New International Financial Architecture: Six Financial Crises in Search of a Generic Explanation

Exchange-rate history can be divided into two periods: the Bretton Woods period and the period of floating exchange rates since the early 1970s. In this second period, financial crises and the roles played by institutions, rules, and commitments in international finance have been of central importance. Many proposals for changing the international financial architecture have been presented to reduce the likelihood of crises, but the source of the problem is in variable capital flows and the floating exchange-rate system. Based on six major financial crises of the last 25 years, the wide range in movements in the exchange rate, which might also be inferred from differences in national inflation rates, reflects changes in the ex-ante cross-border capital flows. As long as currencies are floating, economic conditions among countries are likely to be more variable and diverse: the greater variability in economic conditions suggests greater variability in capital flows.     

Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization*

This paper develops a simple model to examine the reasons behind the capital inflow surges into selected Asian economies in the 1990s prior to the financial crisis of 1997–98. The analytical model shows that persistent uncovered interest differentials and consequent capital inflows may be a result of complete monetary sterilization, perfect capital mobility, sluggish response of interest rates to domestic monetary disequilibrium, or some combination of all three. Using the model as an organizing framework, the paper undertakes a series of related simple empirical tests of the dynamic links between international capital flows, the extent to which they are sterilized and uncovered interest rate differentials in the five crisis‐hit economies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the period 1990:1–1997:5.     

Debt financing and sharp currency depreciations: wholly versus partially-owned multinational affiliates

This paper provides empirical evidence on two potential costs of shared ownership of German affiliates abroad. First, in periods of currency crises, wholly-owned affiliates, in contrast to partially-owned affiliates, seem to circumvent financial constraints by accessing capital from their parent companies. In terms of differences in performance regarding sales of both types of firms, wholly-owned affiliates have a significantly better sales performance than partially-owned affiliates in periods of crises. This finding contributes to the evidence that FDI helps in mitigating the negative consequences of sharp currency depreciation, and stresses that this effect works especially through capital inflows to wholly-owned affiliates. Second, the debt financing of partially-owned affiliates is less sensitive to the tax rate suggesting that partially-owned affiliates rely less on international debt shifting than wholly-owned affiliates. This indicates that partially-owned affiliates are less flexible to exploit tax efficient strategies.     

福建上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析

资本结构在企业融资决策和财务风险控制方面起着至关重要的作用。选取了56家福建上市公司为样本,运用因子分析法和逐步回归分析法对福建上市公司影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明:公司的资本结构与偿债能力、非债务税盾负相关,与公司规模呈正相关,而盈利能力、成长性和股权结构对福建上市公司资本结构的影响不显著。     

农业上市公司资本结构影响因素实证分析

本文以2008~2010年沪深市35家农业上市公司的财务数据为样本,具体分析了我国农业企业资本结构的现状,运用EVIEWS6.0统计软件对数据进行分析研究得到资本结构的影响因素。结果表明,资产结构、盈利能力、成长性、公司规模和资产流动性对资本结构有显著影响,而股权集中度、非负债税盾和实际税率对资本结构影响不显著,并对以上结论进行了细致的分析。     

SOUTH AFRICA'S POST‐LIBERALISED CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS

This study used Christiano and Fitzgerald filtered correlation analysis to investigate the cyclical relationships between South Africa's post‐liberalised capital flows and domestic business cycle fluctuations. The results show that foreign direct investment inflows are counter‐cyclical and proactive, while the “hot” inflows are acyclical. Thus, South Africa's post‐liberalisation “hot” inflows have not been significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast, the capital outflows are found to be consistently procyclical and proactive, suggesting that the outflows are more significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations than the capital inflows. In addition, it is found that the cyclical relationships between the capital inflows and the business cycle components of exports, household consumption and gross fixed investment are generally procyclical, except for portfolio inflows, which have a counter‐cyclical relationship with fixed investment. In contrast, the capital outflows are counter‐cyclically associated with exports and household consumption, and procyclically associated with fixed investment.     

财务资本、价值和要素资本结构研究

现代经济的生产要素不仅包括人力资源、财务资源和实物资源,而且包括技术、信息和知识等新的要素。经济组织使用财务资本从市场上购置生产要素,则生产要素就转变为要素资本。而要素资本结构决定着企业所有权结构模式。要素资本价值的投入产出计量已成为公司财务研究亟待解决的问题。     

论资本成本理论的拓展

资本成本是特定主体为取得和使用资本而发生或应当发生的经济利益的总流出。在工业经济时代,资本主要是指财务资本,而在当今知识经济时代,最重要的资本是人力资本,财务资本是实现资本创造价值的条件。在会计上已提出建立人力资本会计,而在财务上还没有人提出将人力资本成本挪入到资本成本中去,从而造成资本成本理论的不完善。文章针对此问题,提出拓展资本成本内涵,完善财务理论。     

Robust Monetary Framework for China

I. Introduction China has made tremendous gains in terms of economic growth in the last 15 years, by inviting foreign direct investment and increasing manufacturing production and exports. The currency unification (devaluation of the official rate and unification of the official and market rates) in 1994 also contributed to the efficiency in the monetary and foreign exchange systems. China was not severely affected by the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998, and instead China helped the regio…     

On the Scope for International Tax Cooperation: The Role of Capital Controls

Tax competition between independent authorities is known to lead to inefficient outcomes, implying there is scope for cooperation. In an international framework where the authorities are national governments, the undesirable features of tax competition may alternatively be mitigated by imposing restrictions on international capital flows. Using a two-country model it is shown that capital controls may fully remedy the adverse effects of tax competition and thereby render tax cooperation superfluous. In more general cases, however, capital controls have some undesirable side-effects, leaving room for cooperative actions. Moreover, the mere option of imposing capital controls may promote the implementation of tax cooperation.