Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

北宋地方减灾管理述略

以往对古代灾害管理的研究大多针对某一减灾工作进行探讨,或者将这些减灾项目罗列出来,并未能揭示出古代减灾工作的具体办法和运作方式。本文从地方政府面对灾害所要解决的粮食问题、居住问题和灾后重建问题入手,将北宋地方减灾管理分为灾时赈救管理、灾后救济与重建管理以及赈灾辅助管理三个方面进行研究,以期能对北宋地方政府的灾害管理措施有一个全面的认识。     

Global climate change and the research on technical paths of Chinese steel and iron industry against the climate change

The article introduces the impact and essence of climate change and analyzes the attitudes and measures of international community to fight global climate change. From the perspectives of Clean Development Mechanism, Voluntary Carbon Market, energy audit and potential carbon asset investment, this paper discusses the feasible paths of Chinese steel ＆ iron industry against global climate change and summarizes the main fields of adapting to the development of CDM project activities.     

Tourism industry reaction to climate change in Kgalagadi South District,Botswana

Climate change and adaptation have become major issues in contemporary tourism development and policy discussions, especially in southern Africa where the tourism industry is largely based on the natural environment and wildlife. Previous studies on tourism and climate change have mainly focused on the global north and snow-based winter tourism activities. This study aimed to fill the gap by examining tourism operators' perceptions of climate change in Kgalagadi South District, southwest Botswana, and looking at their adaptation strategies, if any. It was found that these operators were aware of the general impacts of climate change but most saw no impacts on the tourism industry and none recognised any impacts on their own operations. Most did, however, envisage challenges to future business growth and Botswana's tourism competitiveness. The perception that climate change did not currently have any impacts may explain why there were almost no adaptation strategies in place.     

The economics of natural disasters in a developing country: The case of Vietnam

We examine the impact of natural disasters on annual output growth in Vietnam. Using provincial data for primary and secondary industries, we employ the Blundell–Bond General Method of Moments procedure to estimate the impact of disasters on the macroeconomy. We show that more lethal disasters result in lower output growth but that disasters that destroy more property and capital actually appear to boost the economy in the short-run. This is consistent with the ‘investment-producing destruction’ hypothesis that we outline. However, we find that disasters have a different macroeconomic impact in different geographical regions; these differences are potentially related to the ability to generate transfers from the Vietnamese central government.     

Big business and small states: Unilever and Norway in the interwar years1

In 1930, Unilever tried to take control of Lilleborg, Norway's most important producer of soap and vegetable oil, with the aim of wiping out most of Norway's independent margarine and soap industry. However, as the purchase was dependent on government concession, Unilever became embroiled in a power struggle with the Norwegian political authorities. The company was strongly criticized by Norwegian nationalists. The question of whether or not to let Unilever go forward became one of the most contested questions in Norwegian politics in the period. In the end, Unilever was allowed to go ahead with the purchase, but in return the company was forced to make substantial concessions. Expanding on Jones's framework for understanding the balance of power between multinationals and host governments, in this article it is argued that we must look beyond firm specific assets and a cost‐benefit oriented analysis of the relationship between multinationals and host countries to understand the end result. In this case, nationalism had a decisive impact. Unilever's acquisition of Lilleborg and the Norwegian response thus contributes to our understanding of the nature of multinational enterprise in the interwar period and of the political economy of foreign direct investment in general.     

Firm-level impacts of natural disasters on production networks: Evidence from a flood in Thailand

This paper explores the firm-level impact of the 2011 flooding in Thailand, specifically, the impact on procurement patterns at Japanese affiliates in Thailand. We find that, first, small firms are more likely to lower their local procurement share, especially their share of procurement from other Japanese-owned firms in Thailand. Second, young firms are more likely to increase their share of imports from Japan, whereas old firms are more likely to look to China. Third, there is no impact on imports from ASEAN and other countries. These findings are useful for uncovering how multinationals adjust their production networks before and after natural disasters.     

Corporate financing and macroeconomic volatility in the European union

This paper investigates the impact of corporate financing patterns in the European Union (EU) on macroeconomic volatility. We examine macroeconomic data for eight EU countries. We find that during the period 1990 through 2005 bank financing was positively associated with volatility in GDP, consumption and investment. On the other hand, macroeconomic volatility declined with increased dependence on market-based financing from the equity and bond markets during this period.     

Building resilient infrastructure in the face of climate change in African cities: Scope,potentiality and challenges

ABSTRACT

This article seeks to explain the capacity and limitations of African cities in building resilient infrastructure in the face of climate change. In this article, resilience means the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change. To expose the capacity and limitations of African cities in building resilient urban infrastructure, the article presents comparative case studies on contemporary experiences in Harare, Nairobi, Abuja, Cairo and Johannesburg relative to the Latin American and Asian cities where resilient infrastructure practices are in vogue. We conclude that most African cities exhibit critical bottlenecks towards emulating the Asian prototypes. Corruption is among the key explanations for the shortcomings of African cities in the delivery of resilient infrastructure and services. Corruption and non-participatory approaches prevailing in most cities have only courted resistance by citizens in the reimbursement of loans obtained from both international and local financial houses.     

大数据时代中小企业人力资源管理的变革研究

大数据时代的到来为中小企业人员管理变革的实现提供了一次很好的机遇。面对时代的这一变革,中小企业必须通过对大数据时代特征进行综合分析,结合自身人力资源管理情况,积极做出相应改变,以更好顺应时代发展的要求,为自身的长远发展奠定良好的基础。文章以大数据时代中小企业人力资源管理变革为研究对象,透过对大数据时代中小企业人力资源管理变革必要性和问题的分析,探究中小企业大数据时代人力资源管理的变革之路。     

On the microeconomic foundations of bank behaviour in macroeconomic models

Summary In this paper some microeconomic foundations of bank behaviour are analysed. Topics discussed are bank objective functions, competition and bank behaviour in the deposit and loan market, some static microeconomic bank models, and bank-customer relationships. It is investigated whether explicit consideration of some features of microeconomic bank behaviour affects the specification and interpretation of macroeconomic monetary sector models.I am grateful to H. Booy, J. van Daal, P. Korteweg, B. J. Kruimel, J. Ooms, R. E. Wessels and an anonymous referee for valuable remarks on earlier drafts. Responsibility for errors is mine.     

Enhancing small,medium and micro enterprise development: Exploring selective interventions by the Lesotho government

Through a survey conducted among 219 businesses in Lesotho, this paper reports small, medium and micro enterprise (SMME) owners' and managers' perceptions of strategies implemented by the government to enhance SMME development, as well as identify shortcomings, if any. It was ascertained that although there are a number of initiatives – inter alia, the creation of a ‘one-stop shop’ to simplify the procedures required for registering an enterprise – the respondents perceive that operating informally is the alternate solution, the consequence being possible loss of taxes by the government which impacts on economic growth. It also became evident that access to finance is still a hurdle to SMME establishment in Lesotho. SMMEs also find taxes too high and are therefore compelled to declare false turnover figures, to avoid being taxed or to pay minimum taxes. The findings of this research could assist SMMEs since there will be greater awareness of the initiatives by the Lesotho government to develop the sector.     

Rethinking the role of sovereign wealth funds in small island developing states: evidence from Tuvalu and Kiribati

This paper examines the important role that can be played by sovereign wealth funds in financing of disaster risk management. The governments of Tuvalu and Kiribati are predicting climate change and natural disaster risks imposing increasing financial pressure on their economies. Having the required financial response in the aftermath of disasters is important to these low‐lying atolls. The long‐term sustainability of sovereign wealth funds in Kiribati and Tuvalu in contributing to ex post disaster risk management is examined.     

Mainstreaming sustainable adaptation to climate change into municipal planning: An analysis from the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Municipalities are well positioned to support adaptation of vulnerable people to climate change; however, they seldom integrate climate change into their planning for social development. The building of adaptive capacity for sustainable adaptation requires that municipalities understand and mainstream climate change into their plans, and develop context-specific adaptation strategies that address existing social development issues. A desktop analysis was conducted to compare the planning landscape in six District Municipalities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, focusing on Municipal Integrated Development Plans (IDPs). A scoring system was developed for comparing the IDPs of the municipalities, based on levels of context-specific information about climate change, mainstreaming of climate change with other development concerns, and vertical integration across district and local municipalities, amongst other themes. Overall, the mainstreaming of climate change in municipal IDPs in the Eastern Cape remains weak, and requires critical attention if sustainable adaptation is to be achieved.     

The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China

This paper sheds new light on the external and domestic dimension of China’s exchange rate policy. It presents an open-economy model to analyse the macroeconomic adjustment process in China under both flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. The model-based results indicate that persistent current account surpluses in China cannot be rationalized, under general circumstances, by the occurrence of permanent technology or labour supply shocks. As a result, to understand the macroeconomic adjustment process in China it is necessary to mimic the effects of potential inefficiencies, which induce the subdued response of domestic absorption to permanent income shocks, thereby causing the observed positive unconditional correlation of the trade balance and output. The paper argues that these inefficiencies can be potentially seen as a by-product of the fixed exchange rate regime, and can be approximated by a stochastic tax on domestic consumption or a time-varying transaction cost technology related to money holdings. Our results indicate that a fixed exchange rate regime with financial market distortions, as defined above, might induce negative effects on GDP growth in the medium term compared with a more flexible exchange rate regime.     

The macroeconomic effects of immigration: Israel in the 1990s

The Macroeconomic Effects of Immigration: Israel in the 1990s. — The authors perform counterfactual simulations using an econometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of immigration in Israel. The model takes account of immigrant assimilation in labor and housing markets. They argue that wage flexibility was the key to success in immigrant absorption. In addition, the animal spirits of entrepreneurs consolidated this success. House prices, GDP, consumption, investment, unemployment and imports would have been considerably lower but for the immigration, while real wages would have been higher. The main beneficiaries were capitalists owning housing and businesses. The main losers were workers who were not owner-occupiers.     

On the sources and macroeconomic implications of nonuniform and uncertain price expectations

Conclusions There is still much work to be done on the issues of nonuniform and uncertain price expectations. In the present paper we have attempted to give an overview of the reasons for, and possible consequences of, the existence of these phenomena. Now there seem to be reasons for deepening particularly the empirical knowledge on the formation of expectations, and for attempts to connect existing theoretical and empirical knowledge more closely with each other.