北京房价将在跌中求稳

房地产在中国是一个特殊的话题,北京更是特殊中的特殊.从1998年取消福利分房,北京楼市开始走上市场化道路至今,北京房地产市场实际上一直或多或少有某种意义的代表性--集中了全国最好的教育资源、医疗资源、政策资源等众多资源.众多的首都优势让北京的房价居高不下.……     

Scenarios for long‐term world growth

• In the second of two articles on long‐term world growth, we present a set of stylised scenarios for world growth in the next decade. Our baseline forecast, which sees growth edging down, is compared to scenarios based on ‘lost decades’ in China and India, lower productivity and investment growth and a bigger drag from excess debt. The more likely of these scenarios could cut world growth by around 0.5 percentage points per year, rising to a 1.5 percentage point cut for the most extreme scenario.
• Our baseline forecast assumes productivity and investment grow at a similar pace in the next decade to the past ten years. But there are downside risks to productivity growth, especially in Emerging Markets (EMs). And with investment in China and in commodity exporters slowing, our investment forecast relies on a significant rebound in the major economies.
• Demographic factors are a significant downside risk to our forecast. The negative impact of demographic changes on growth in Japan since the 1990s was not generally foreseen. This risk exists in the US and Europe but also in emerging Asia, a particular concern given that the latter region accounted for over 50% of world growth in 2000–14.
• Growth in commodity‐exporting economies could undershoot our current predictions. Historical evidence suggests a danger that the drop in commodity prices could extend for several more years. Even with zero real growth in commodity prices, aggregate GDP growth in the main commodity exporters might only be around 2.5% per year.
• Another risk area is debt. International evidence suggests debt ratios above certain thresholds slow growth. We find that countries accounting for 44% and 31% of world GDP respectively exceed these estimated public and corporate debt thresholds. But the share is lower, and has dropped, for household debt, thanks to deleveraging in the G7.

     

A ‘lost decade’ for pay may be a taste of things to come

• ? The failure of pay growth to respond to falling unemployment is less of a puzzle when allowance is made for structural changes in the jobs market. But the same developments make it hard to see where a pay revival will come from.
• ? In real terms, the average weekly wage in the UK is below the level of 10 years ago, an unprecedentedly poor performance. This is despite joblessness dropping to a 42‐year low and employment at a record high.
• ? The responsiveness of pay to falling unemployment has dwindled. A shift towards less secure forms of employment, the tightening up of eligibility for benefits and the consequences of globalisation have all made workers more compliant and less willing and able to push for higher wages.
• ? The result has been a decline in the ‘equilibrium’ rate of unemployment. The Bank of England currently judges this rate to be around 4.5%. But that earnings growth is so subdued despite unemployment being in line the Bank's estimate suggests that the sustainable rate of joblessness may well be much lower.
• ? With unemployment forecast to plateau at current levels, the odds of a revival in pay growth look slim, despite possible upsides from strong corporate profitability and rises in the National Living Wage. This would not be a new development – a secular decline in earnings growth has been apparent over the last 30 years in both nominal and real terms, with pay growth in successive periods of economic expansion failing to return to pre‐recession norms.
• ? This suggests that a serious revival in pay growth is unlikely to happen without the economy operating at significantly higher pressure and with a substantially lower unemployment rate. But this would require a recognition of, and a more accommodative policy response to, the historically weak economic expansion since the financial crisis. Neither seems likely.

     

Ultimate 100‐m world records through extreme‐value theory

We use extreme‐value theory to estimate the ultimate world records for the 100‐m running, for both men and women. For this aim we collected the fastest personal best times set between January 1991 and June 2008. Estimators of the extreme‐value index are based on a certain number of upper order statistics. To optimize this number of order statistics we minimize the asymptotic mean‐squared error of the moment estimator. Using the thus obtained estimate for the extreme‐value index, the right endpoint of the speed distribution is estimated. The corresponding time can be interpreted as the estimated ultimate world record: the best possible time that could be run in the near future. We find 9.51 seconds for the 100‐m men and 10.33 seconds for the women.     

Brexit adds to gloom over long‐term growth prospects

• The prospect of continued weak productivity growth and less support from rising labour supply means we are relatively gloomy about medium‐term growth prospects. Our forecasts show potential output growth of just 1.6% a year from 2017–2030. This would be well below the average of the decade prior to the financial crisis (2.7%) and in line with our estimate for the 2007 and 2016 period which included the global financial crisis.
• We have become more pessimistic about the extent to which growth in total factor productivity is likely to accelerate. This is partly due to a judgement call that more of the weakness since the financial crisis reflects structural factors. Brexit is also likely to weigh on long‐term prospects, resulting in a degree of trade destruction and lower FDI inflows than would be the case were the UK to remain in the EU. Brexit is also likely to result in less capital deepening.
• Demographic factors also point to weak potential output growth moving forwards. High levels of inward migration have mitigated the impact of an ageing population recently. However, immigration is likely to fall sharply over the next decade, as first an improving European labour market reduces incentives to migrate and then the UK Government adopts more restrictive immigration policy. We are also coming into a period where there will be fewer increases in state pension age than of late.
• Since the mid‐1990s there has been a surge in the number of people going to university, resulting in strong contributions from human capital. But this will be less important moving forwards as university admissions reach a ceiling.
• Stronger growth in potential output would be possible if Brexit results in trading arrangements which are closer to the status quo, or if policy is more ‘liberal’, than our baseline assumptions.

     

Governing ‘Sustainable Urban Development’ Through Self‐Build Groups and Co‐Housing: The Cases of Hamburg and Gothenburg

This article critically examines the governing of ‘sustainable urban development’ through self‐build cohousing groups in Gothenburg and Hamburg. The two case cities have been selected because both are currently involved in major urban restructuring, and have launched programmes to support self‐build groups and cohousing as part of their emphasis on promoting urban sustainable development through this process. Departing from a theoretical discussion on advanced liberal urban governance, focusing in particular on the contemporary discourse on sustainable urban development, we examine the interaction between political institutions, civil society and private actors in the construction of cohousing as a perceived novel and alternative form of housing that may contribute to fulfilling certain sustainability goals. Questions centre on the socio‐political contextualization of cohousing; concepts of sustainability; strategies of, and relations between, different actors in promoting cohousing; gentrification and segregation; and inclusion and exclusion. In conclusion we argue that, while self‐build groups can provide pockets of cohousing as an alternative to dominant forms of housing, the economic and political logics of advanced liberal urban development make even such a modest target difficult, particularly when it comes to making such housing affordable.     

Model uncertainty in cross‐country growth regressions

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross‐country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is spread widely among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out‐of‐sample predictive results support this claim. In contrast to Levine and Renelt ( 1992 ), our results broadly support the more ‘optimistic’ conclusion of Sala‐i‐Martin ( 1997b ), namely that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross‐country growth patterns. However, care should be taken in the methodology employed. The approach proposed here is firmly grounded in statistical theory and immediately leads to posterior and predictive inference. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring Accessibility of Housing to Public–community Facilities Using Geographical Information Systems

This paper examines housing accessibility to public–community facilities (PCFs) using geographical information systems (GIS) for four county–wide metropolitan areas in North Carolina with population ranging from 90,000 to 700,000. An optimization–based assignment model is developed and implemented in ArcView GIS. Rather than using the conventional and less accurate traffic analysis zone (TAZ) or census geography, this research uses detailed county–wide building and parcel databases to estimate direct distances, hence accessibility, from homes (i.e., apartment, manufactured home, and single–family house) to PCF (i.e., office, shopping center, school). The results indicate that distinct housing accessibility patterns exist. In general, multi–family housing such as apartment and townhouse enjoys higher accessibility to positive (desirable) PCFs, followed by single–family detached housing. Manufactured housing has been placed further away from most positive PCFs, but closer to some negative (undesirable) ones.     

Cooperative Islands in Capitalist Waters: Limited‐equity Housing Cooperatives,Urban Renewal and Gentrification

Improving the habitat of residents in central‐city neighbourhoods without simultaneously gentrifying these is becoming a pressing dilemma in right‐to‐housing and right‐to‐the‐city agendas, both in the global North and the global South. This article explores what possibilities limited‐equity housing cooperativism can bring to the table. Insights are drawn from two urban ‘renewal’ processes in which limited‐equity housing cooperatives have played an important role: in Vesterbro (Copenhagen) and Ciudad Vieja (Montevideo). The article analyses the everyday politics within and around these cooperatives through a broader institutional and political‐economy lens. This approach sheds light on mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion that operate within these cooperatives, as well as on the processes through which they have been directly and indirectly implicated in the displacement of low‐income neighbours. Despite providing a grassroots housing alternative for local ‘non‐owners’, individual cooperatives participate in, and are vulnerable to, urban transformations that traverse multiple scales. They are inserted, moreover, within wide‐ranging unequal social structures that the cooperative's formal equality has limited tools to offset. The ways in which cooperatives interlink as a sector and how this sector relates to the state are two key dimensions to be considered in challenging capitalist‐space economies.     

Eco‐innovation and firm growth in the circular economy: Evidence from European small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises

As the circular economy (CE) concept gains growing popularity among consumers and producers, small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) increasingly look for ways to reorganize their offering and operations to integrate into the CE. This study examines the impact of (a) circular eco‐innovations and (b) external funding available for CE activities on the growth of European SMEs using a data set of 5,100 SMEs across 28 European countries in 2016. Findings reveal that a significant threshold investment (i.e., higher than 10% of revenues) into circular eco‐innovations is required for SMEs to benefit from investing into the CE. Moreover, the majority of circular eco‐innovations fail to boost the growth rates of SMEs, with the exception of investments into eco‐design innovations. Although traditional forms of debt and grant finance targeted to CE activities are found to have no or negative impact on the growth of SMEs, equity finance (i.e., angel and venture capital investments) contributes positively to their growth. The study offers insights into the lower levels of SME engagement in the CE as well as policy implications for improving engagement.     

The Urban Geography of Low‐income Housing: Cairo (1947–96) Exemplifies a Model

No one has documented the changing geography of low‐income settlements in any city in the developing world over the entire postwar period. The most plausible model of this changing geography, first outlined by John F.C. Turner, indicates the existence of a dual concentration of the poor: in central slums and in informal settlements at the periphery. This dual pattern is associated, respectively, with the filtering‐down of older housing and with owner‐construction of new dwellings, sometimes on illegally‐occupied land. Some writers have suggested that central slums deteriorate, while fringe settlements may be improved over time, thereby distinguishing slums of despair from those of hope. Analysis of the Egyptian census from 1947 to 1996 shows that this suggestion is borne out by the postwar experience of Cairo. Evidence on literacy indicates that central and fringe areas have both contained a high proportion of low‐income households, but that over half a century the relative status of the central areas has slowly declined. Although it has helped to shape the experience of millions, this long‐term trend has not been obvious to close observers of the local scene. Similar historical surveys should be undertaken of low‐income settlements in other cities in the developing world. Personne n’a étudié la géographie évolutive des logements à faibles revenus dans quelque ville que ce soit du monde en développement durant tout l’après‐guerre. Le modèle le plus plausible de ce changement, esquisséà l’origine par John F.C. Turner, définit l’existence de deux concentrations de pauvres: dans les taudis du centre et dans des implantations informelles à la périphérie. Ce modèle dual est lié respectivement à un déclassement de l’habitat ancien et à la construction de nouvelles habitations par les propriétaires, parfois sur un terrain occupé illégalement. D’après certains auteurs, les quartiers centraux des pauvres se détériorent tandis que les installations périphériques sont susceptibles de s’améliorer avec le temps, établissant ainsi une distinction entre les taudis du désespoir et ceux de l’espoir. Une analyse du recensement égyptien de 1947 à 1996 confirme cette idée au vu de l’expérience du Caire depuis la guerre. Des données sur l’alphabétisation montrent que les zones centrales et périphériques ont abrité une forte proportion de ménages à faible revenu mais que, en un demi‐siècle, la condition sociale des quartiers du centre a connu un relatif déclin. Même si elle a influé sur l’expérience de millions de gens, cette tendance à long terme a échappéà des observateurs directs de la scène locale. Il conviendrait donc d’entreprendre des études historiques similaires dans les quartiers à bas revenus d’autres grandes villes du monde en développement.     

Reconstructing Urban Politics with a Bourdieusian Framework: The Case of Local Low‐Income Housing Policy

This research aimed to reconstruct a local urban politics and develop a meso–micro‐level model of urban politics through a case study, drawing on a Bourdieusian relational framework. To this end, it investigated the case of local low‐income housing policy — inclusionary zoning — in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It historicized the path of the local low‐income policy issue through document analysis and qualitative media content analysis. Through multiple analyses, the study revealed that urban politics consists of complex interlinkages among stakeholders with shared values or interests from different social domains, created in order to dominate the policy issue. The study further investigated, on the basis of Bourdieu's concepts of capital and habitus, what elicited different political strategies from key community leaders.     

New approaches to funding not‐for‐profit organisations

This paper seeks to record and to explain the enormous growth in interest over the last few years in the provision of loans and other investment to not‐for‐profit organisations. It argues that this funding development fills a gap in the market. It describes the following new approaches: social investment, the provision of ‘patient capital’, and an ‘investment’ or ‘venture philanthropy’ approach to grant making. The factors driving the growth in use of these approaches are examined and their relevance to fundraising charities considered. Finally, the paper discusses how key stakeholders including the government and charitable trusts are adapting to this new environment. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications     

Linking Individual‐Level Knowledge Sourcing to Project‐Level Contributions in Large R&D‐Driven Product‐Development Projects

This paper focuses on the link between individuals’ knowledge sourcing and their creative contributions, such as new ideas and solutions in R&D‐driven product‐development projects; creative contributions were both self‐ and peer‐assessed. The paper reveals that, for individuals, knowledge sources internal to the organization were generally regarded as more important than external knowledge sources. However, external parties such as customers, partners, and suppliers constitute the knowledge source that best predicted creative contributions at the project level. Informal external contacts were deemed the least important knowledge source by individuals; however, this was positively related to self‐assessed creative contributions. The paper thus finds that there is a discrepancy between the knowledge sources deemed important by individuals and the sources that are associated with creative contributions at the project level.     

Willingness to compete: Between‐ and within‐gender comparisons

This paper introduces a new instrument to elicit individual willingness to compete (WTC). Experimental data corroborate the standard result according to which the average WTC of men is higher than the average WTC of women. However, our WTC measure reveals significant within‐gender heterogeneity: 10% of women are extremely competitive, and 13% of men are extremely averse to competition. Gender differences in WTC persist after controlling for ability, self‐confidence, tolerance for risk, and the gender of the partner.     

The Centrality of Community Capacity in State Low‐income Housing Provision in Cape Town,South Africa

The development of low‐income housing continues to be a political imperative and an urban reconstruction priority for the post‐apartheid South African state. But, even though policies for housing construction and delivery by the state are in place, in practice many homeless families initiate, direct and drive the process through which they secure state‐provided housing. I analyse in this study two such cases where homeless residents in peripherally located, poor areas of the Cape Metropolitan Area successfully accessed state‐provided housing. In both instances, homeless families organized around the different sets of capacities that structured the nature of the linkages that each forged to resources outside of their respective areas, and thus the ways in which they pursued their need for housing. I argue in this study that uneven and place‐specific, community‐based capacity often directs the manner in which communities interpret, interface with and access state‐run urban reconstruction projects such as housing provision. An analysis of community‐based capacity thus proves useful to investigate the potential and the problems that underlie state initiatives for development and the manner in which communities participate and engage with urban reconstruction and development. L'expansion du logement social reste un impératif politique et une priorité de la reconstruction urbaine pour l'État sud‐africain de l'après‐apartheid. Des politiques de construction et de fourniture de logements par l'État ont été mises en place mais, en pratique, de nombreuses familles sans‐domicile induisent, orientent et mènent le processus par lequel elles s'assurent un logement public. Cette étude analyse deux de ces cas dans lesquels des sans‐domicile vivant dans des quartiers pauvres à la périphérie de la zone métropolitaine du Cap ont réussi à se loger. Dans les deux situations, les familles se sont organisées autour des capacités spécifiques qui structuraient la nature des liens établis pour trouver des ressources hors de leurs quartiers respectifs, définissant ainsi leurs modalités d'action pour obtenir un logement. L'étude démontre qu'une capacité inégale, particulière à un lieu et à un groupe, oriente souvent la manière dont les communautés interprètent, interagissent avec et accèdent aux projets de reconstruction urbaine menés par l'État tels que la fourniture de logement. Il apparaît donc utile d'analyser la capacité propre à une communauté, si l'on veut déterminer non seulement le potentiel et les problèmes fondamentaux des initiatives gouvernementales de développement, mais aussi la manière dont les communautés participent et contribuent à la reconstruction et à l'aménagement urbains.     

The diversification of charities: from religion‐oriented to for‐profit‐oriented fundraising

• Charities are increasingly relying on more complex and diversified fundraising structures to raise funds and attract benefactors. In adopting a historic perspective, this research identified five emergent fundraising structures, namely religion‐oriented, business‐oriented, marketing‐oriented, consumer‐oriented, and for‐profit‐oriented. The analysis critically evaluates the role that institutions and resources have played in each funding structure and draws conclusions concerning the management of charitable fundraising in a world where charitable fundraising, consumerism, and social media networking are increasingly entwined with the for‐profit motive.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hedonic Housing Prices in Paris: An Unbalanced Spatial Lag Pseudo‐Panel Model with Nested Random Effects

This paper estimates a hedonic housing model based on flats sold in the city of Paris over the period 1990–2003. This is done using maximum likelihood estimation, taking into account the nested structure of the data. Paris is historically divided into 20 arrondissements, each divided into four quartiers (quarters), which in turn contain between 15 and 169 blocks (îlot, in French) per quartier. This is an unbalanced pseudo?panel data containing 156,896 transactions. Despite the richness of the data, many neighborhood characteristics are not observed, and we attempt to capture these neighborhood spillover effects using a spatial lag model. Using likelihood ratio tests, we find significant spatial lag effects as well as significant nested random error effects. The empirical results show that the hedonic housing estimates and the corresponding marginal effects are affected by taking into account the nested aspects of the Paris housing data as well as the spatial neighborhood effects.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.