北京房价将在跌中求稳

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Scenarios for long‐term world growth

• In the second of two articles on long‐term world growth, we present a set of stylised scenarios for world growth in the next decade. Our baseline forecast, which sees growth edging down, is compared to scenarios based on ‘lost decades’ in China and India, lower productivity and investment growth and a bigger drag from excess debt. The more likely of these scenarios could cut world growth by around 0.5 percentage points per year, rising to a 1.5 percentage point cut for the most extreme scenario.
• Our baseline forecast assumes productivity and investment grow at a similar pace in the next decade to the past ten years. But there are downside risks to productivity growth, especially in Emerging Markets (EMs). And with investment in China and in commodity exporters slowing, our investment forecast relies on a significant rebound in the major economies.
• Demographic factors are a significant downside risk to our forecast. The negative impact of demographic changes on growth in Japan since the 1990s was not generally foreseen. This risk exists in the US and Europe but also in emerging Asia, a particular concern given that the latter region accounted for over 50% of world growth in 2000–14.
• Growth in commodity‐exporting economies could undershoot our current predictions. Historical evidence suggests a danger that the drop in commodity prices could extend for several more years. Even with zero real growth in commodity prices, aggregate GDP growth in the main commodity exporters might only be around 2.5% per year.
• Another risk area is debt. International evidence suggests debt ratios above certain thresholds slow growth. We find that countries accounting for 44% and 31% of world GDP respectively exceed these estimated public and corporate debt thresholds. But the share is lower, and has dropped, for household debt, thanks to deleveraging in the G7.

     

A ‘lost decade’ for pay may be a taste of things to come

• ? The failure of pay growth to respond to falling unemployment is less of a puzzle when allowance is made for structural changes in the jobs market. But the same developments make it hard to see where a pay revival will come from.
• ? In real terms, the average weekly wage in the UK is below the level of 10 years ago, an unprecedentedly poor performance. This is despite joblessness dropping to a 42‐year low and employment at a record high.
• ? The responsiveness of pay to falling unemployment has dwindled. A shift towards less secure forms of employment, the tightening up of eligibility for benefits and the consequences of globalisation have all made workers more compliant and less willing and able to push for higher wages.
• ? The result has been a decline in the ‘equilibrium’ rate of unemployment. The Bank of England currently judges this rate to be around 4.5%. But that earnings growth is so subdued despite unemployment being in line the Bank's estimate suggests that the sustainable rate of joblessness may well be much lower.
• ? With unemployment forecast to plateau at current levels, the odds of a revival in pay growth look slim, despite possible upsides from strong corporate profitability and rises in the National Living Wage. This would not be a new development – a secular decline in earnings growth has been apparent over the last 30 years in both nominal and real terms, with pay growth in successive periods of economic expansion failing to return to pre‐recession norms.
• ? This suggests that a serious revival in pay growth is unlikely to happen without the economy operating at significantly higher pressure and with a substantially lower unemployment rate. But this would require a recognition of, and a more accommodative policy response to, the historically weak economic expansion since the financial crisis. Neither seems likely.

     

Brexit adds to gloom over long‐term growth prospects

• The prospect of continued weak productivity growth and less support from rising labour supply means we are relatively gloomy about medium‐term growth prospects. Our forecasts show potential output growth of just 1.6% a year from 2017–2030. This would be well below the average of the decade prior to the financial crisis (2.7%) and in line with our estimate for the 2007 and 2016 period which included the global financial crisis.
• We have become more pessimistic about the extent to which growth in total factor productivity is likely to accelerate. This is partly due to a judgement call that more of the weakness since the financial crisis reflects structural factors. Brexit is also likely to weigh on long‐term prospects, resulting in a degree of trade destruction and lower FDI inflows than would be the case were the UK to remain in the EU. Brexit is also likely to result in less capital deepening.
• Demographic factors also point to weak potential output growth moving forwards. High levels of inward migration have mitigated the impact of an ageing population recently. However, immigration is likely to fall sharply over the next decade, as first an improving European labour market reduces incentives to migrate and then the UK Government adopts more restrictive immigration policy. We are also coming into a period where there will be fewer increases in state pension age than of late.
• Since the mid‐1990s there has been a surge in the number of people going to university, resulting in strong contributions from human capital. But this will be less important moving forwards as university admissions reach a ceiling.
• Stronger growth in potential output would be possible if Brexit results in trading arrangements which are closer to the status quo, or if policy is more ‘liberal’, than our baseline assumptions.

     

Governing ‘Sustainable Urban Development’ Through Self‐Build Groups and Co‐Housing: The Cases of Hamburg and Gothenburg

This article critically examines the governing of ‘sustainable urban development’ through self‐build cohousing groups in Gothenburg and Hamburg. The two case cities have been selected because both are currently involved in major urban restructuring, and have launched programmes to support self‐build groups and cohousing as part of their emphasis on promoting urban sustainable development through this process. Departing from a theoretical discussion on advanced liberal urban governance, focusing in particular on the contemporary discourse on sustainable urban development, we examine the interaction between political institutions, civil society and private actors in the construction of cohousing as a perceived novel and alternative form of housing that may contribute to fulfilling certain sustainability goals. Questions centre on the socio‐political contextualization of cohousing; concepts of sustainability; strategies of, and relations between, different actors in promoting cohousing; gentrification and segregation; and inclusion and exclusion. In conclusion we argue that, while self‐build groups can provide pockets of cohousing as an alternative to dominant forms of housing, the economic and political logics of advanced liberal urban development make even such a modest target difficult, particularly when it comes to making such housing affordable.     

Cooperative Islands in Capitalist Waters: Limited‐equity Housing Cooperatives,Urban Renewal and Gentrification

Improving the habitat of residents in central‐city neighbourhoods without simultaneously gentrifying these is becoming a pressing dilemma in right‐to‐housing and right‐to‐the‐city agendas, both in the global North and the global South. This article explores what possibilities limited‐equity housing cooperativism can bring to the table. Insights are drawn from two urban ‘renewal’ processes in which limited‐equity housing cooperatives have played an important role: in Vesterbro (Copenhagen) and Ciudad Vieja (Montevideo). The article analyses the everyday politics within and around these cooperatives through a broader institutional and political‐economy lens. This approach sheds light on mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion that operate within these cooperatives, as well as on the processes through which they have been directly and indirectly implicated in the displacement of low‐income neighbours. Despite providing a grassroots housing alternative for local ‘non‐owners’, individual cooperatives participate in, and are vulnerable to, urban transformations that traverse multiple scales. They are inserted, moreover, within wide‐ranging unequal social structures that the cooperative's formal equality has limited tools to offset. The ways in which cooperatives interlink as a sector and how this sector relates to the state are two key dimensions to be considered in challenging capitalist‐space economies.     

Measuring Accessibility of Housing to Public–community Facilities Using Geographical Information Systems

This paper examines housing accessibility to public–community facilities (PCFs) using geographical information systems (GIS) for four county–wide metropolitan areas in North Carolina with population ranging from 90,000 to 700,000. An optimization–based assignment model is developed and implemented in ArcView GIS. Rather than using the conventional and less accurate traffic analysis zone (TAZ) or census geography, this research uses detailed county–wide building and parcel databases to estimate direct distances, hence accessibility, from homes (i.e., apartment, manufactured home, and single–family house) to PCF (i.e., office, shopping center, school). The results indicate that distinct housing accessibility patterns exist. In general, multi–family housing such as apartment and townhouse enjoys higher accessibility to positive (desirable) PCFs, followed by single–family detached housing. Manufactured housing has been placed further away from most positive PCFs, but closer to some negative (undesirable) ones.     

The Centrality of Community Capacity in State Low‐income Housing Provision in Cape Town,South Africa

The development of low‐income housing continues to be a political imperative and an urban reconstruction priority for the post‐apartheid South African state. But, even though policies for housing construction and delivery by the state are in place, in practice many homeless families initiate, direct and drive the process through which they secure state‐provided housing. I analyse in this study two such cases where homeless residents in peripherally located, poor areas of the Cape Metropolitan Area successfully accessed state‐provided housing. In both instances, homeless families organized around the different sets of capacities that structured the nature of the linkages that each forged to resources outside of their respective areas, and thus the ways in which they pursued their need for housing. I argue in this study that uneven and place‐specific, community‐based capacity often directs the manner in which communities interpret, interface with and access state‐run urban reconstruction projects such as housing provision. An analysis of community‐based capacity thus proves useful to investigate the potential and the problems that underlie state initiatives for development and the manner in which communities participate and engage with urban reconstruction and development. L'expansion du logement social reste un impératif politique et une priorité de la reconstruction urbaine pour l'État sud‐africain de l'après‐apartheid. Des politiques de construction et de fourniture de logements par l'État ont été mises en place mais, en pratique, de nombreuses familles sans‐domicile induisent, orientent et mènent le processus par lequel elles s'assurent un logement public. Cette étude analyse deux de ces cas dans lesquels des sans‐domicile vivant dans des quartiers pauvres à la périphérie de la zone métropolitaine du Cap ont réussi à se loger. Dans les deux situations, les familles se sont organisées autour des capacités spécifiques qui structuraient la nature des liens établis pour trouver des ressources hors de leurs quartiers respectifs, définissant ainsi leurs modalités d'action pour obtenir un logement. L'étude démontre qu'une capacité inégale, particulière à un lieu et à un groupe, oriente souvent la manière dont les communautés interprètent, interagissent avec et accèdent aux projets de reconstruction urbaine menés par l'État tels que la fourniture de logement. Il apparaît donc utile d'analyser la capacité propre à une communauté, si l'on veut déterminer non seulement le potentiel et les problèmes fondamentaux des initiatives gouvernementales de développement, mais aussi la manière dont les communautés participent et contribuent à la reconstruction et à l'aménagement urbains.     

The “management‐per‐result” approach to international development project design

Results‐based management (RBM) has proved to be a valuable tool for international development project management; however, there are some inconsistencies that limit the use of RBM at the design phase to manage for results. This article presents a “management‐per‐result” approach to reinforcing the project design function of RBM and illustrates its application to a real‐life project. Shying away from a technocratic approach, it emphasizes a “quick‐and‐dirty” approach and proposes an updated version of the logical framework to include success criteria and factors and very rough estimates for both project costs and benefits for targeted project results for different types of projects (infrastructure development, “process” type of project, and so forth).     

Data‐ and metrics‐driven approach to human resource practices: Using customers,employees, and financial metrics

Should scientific measures be used to evaluate the effectiveness of HRM practices? Can HRM demonstrate that its proposals cause a predicted outcome? If the allocation of capital within an organization is based upon projected financial returns, should HRM be required to demonstrate the expected returns of its proposals? Would the use of scientific and financial measures give HRM practices greater internal support and continuity? The authors demonstrate how metrics were used to evaluate two new HRM projects at one of the world's largest retailers. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The Hong Kong Government’s Strategy for Promoting Home Ownership — An Approach to Reducing the Decommodifying Effects of Public Housing Services

The Hong Kong Government is a well-known believer in laissez faire values and capitalism. However, it provides massive public housing programmes. In order to reduce the adverse effects of the public housing programmes on capitalism, it has tried to promote the recommodification of public housing by encouraging and assisting public housing tenants to become home owners. The aim of this paper is to study the Hong Kong Government’s measures for promoting home ownership. It is argued that these measures are not very effective in reducing the decommodifying effects of the public housing services. Despite the fact that these measures aim to reduce people’s dependence on the government and to help them to re-establish their relation with the private market, they are paradoxically also a kind of decommodification — people can enjoy some benefits independently of how they perform in the private market. Hence, it can be said that the government’s measures for promoting home ownership serve more to change the form than to reduce the degree of the decommodification of the public housing services. Le gouvernement de Hong Kong est un partisan bien connu du laissez-faire et du capitalisme. Il fournit néanmoins des programmes massifs de logement public. Afin de réuire les effets adverses que les programmes de logement public ont sur le capitalisme, il a essayé de promouvoir la recommercialisation du logement public en encourageant et en aidant les locataires du logement public à devenir propriétaires. Le but de cet article est d’étudier les mesures que le gouvernement de Hong Kong a prises afin de promouvoir l’accès à la propriété. Cet essai soutient que ces mesures ne sont pas très efficaces pour réduire les effets de décommercialisation qu’ont les services de logement public. Bien qu’elles aient pour but de réduire la dépendance des habitants du gouvernement et de les aider à rétablir leur rapport avec le marché privé, elles sont aussi, paradoxicalement, une espèce de décommercialisation — dont les gens peuvent bénéficier indépendamment de leur performance sur le marché privé. On peut donc dire que les mesures prises par le gouvernement pour promouvoir l'accès à la propriété servent plus à changer la forme de la décommercialisation des services de logement public qu’à en réduire leur niveau.     

Leading for Long‐Term Performance: Matching the Behavior to the Situation

Is there one right way to lead, or does it all “depend?” The right answer will inform the right leadership development strategy. A recent study by McKinsey & Co. using survey data collected from 165 organizations and over 365,000 respondents globally suggests that the answer is both. Two types of behavior sets emerged from organizations that enjoyed higher member perceptions of leadership effectiveness and attained higher levels of organizational health (the latter predicts long‐term financial and operational performance). We combined these into a model that prescribes a set of “baseline” behaviors that should always be evident, complemented by another set of behaviors (“situational behaviors”) that should be differentially emphasized depending on the level of organizational health. Both the content of the behavior and its relative emphasis are critical to either set. The current paper combines these into a model of organization‐wide leadership and concludes with action implications for organizations’ leadership development strategy.