Pseudo panel data estimation technique and rational addiction model: an analysis of cigarette,alcohol and coffee demands

We use a pseudo‐panel data approach to analyze the relationship between the consumptions of cigarettes, alcohol, and coffee in a rational addiction framework. We find that while cigarette and coffee demands fit well with the rational addiction model, alcohol demand conforms to a model with inventory effects. The results suggest that alcohol consumption increases the marginal utility derived from consumption of cigarettes. Increasing alcohol prices would decrease not only the consumption of alcohol, but also the consumption of cigarettes. On the other hand, increasing cigarette prices do not have the same effect on consumption of alcohol. The cross‐price elasticity of coffee with respect to cigarette price is positive and significant which suggests that coffee substitutes for cigarettes when cigarette prices increase. The cross‐price elasticity of alcohol with respect to coffee price is found to be negative and significant. On the other hand, Morishima elasticities of substitution indicate that cigarette, alcohol and coffee substitute each other along the indifference curve when relative prices change.     

Price determinants in top-quality e-auctioned specialty coffees

We analyze the price determinants of specialty coffees traded at e-auctions. We hypothesize that since specialty coffees are a highly differentiated product, prices will be determined by both sensory and reputation attributes. To test our hypotheses, we estimate a hedonic price function using data from Central and South American e-auctions and calculate the implicit prices of sensory and reputation attributes. The results show that market clearing prices are a function of sensory characteristics and reputation variables including third-party quality ranking, country of origin, coffee variety, and quantity. The additional attribute information disclosed at e-auctions results in substantially higher prices relative to conventional commodity coffee market prices.     

Testing vertical price transmission for Vietnam's Robusta coffee

Vietnam has undergone market reforms over the last three decades; and as a consequence, the coffee sector has become increasingly market‐driven. The success of the government's liberalisation policies in terms of market efficiency is investigated by examining the transmission of both positive and negative price changes for Robusta coffee between export and farmgate prices. We used a threshold vector error correction model and high‐frequency daily data. The primary result here is that of a symmetric price transmission between export and farm‐level prices. This result holds when tested with weekly price data, derived from the daily data. Farmgate prices respond faster to decreases than increases in export prices when the long‐run deviation exceeds a certain threshold. These price changes are transmitted within several days. This research also confirms the importance of transaction costs, and other price frictions mostly ignored in prior analyses for coffee.     

Measuring Food Product Differentiation by Quality Ratings: A Cross‐Entropy Analysis of Specialty Coffee e‐Auctions

Food quality ratings can be used for product differentiation and strategic marketing. This article develops a differentiation measure based on the cross‐entropy of two distributions for speciality coffees. It examines whether quality ratings achieve their objectives for speciality coffee supply chains. The estimation, using e‐auctions data, indicates that the quality rating is more informative in the Cup of Excellence (CofE) relative to the Q auction. To determine significance, a statistical test for comparing the information measure across different e‐auctions and segments of the quality rating was developed. The significant difference between the two auctions is not a surprise as the auctions trade coffee lots of different volumes and the quality evaluation is more important in the case of the CofE, with its jury of renowned coffee experts. The total cross‐entropy measure of product differentiation shows that the 100‐point quality rating does not carry the same information content and meaning in the two different e‐auctions and their respective supply chains. The cross‐entropy measure of product differentiation is shown to be a good indicator of the information and the value created throughout the speciality food supply chain.     

The economics of quality in the specialty coffee industry: insights from the Cup of Excellence auction programs

This study estimates price determinants for specialty green coffee auctions using records from the 2004–2010 Cup of Excellence programs hosted by the Alliance for Coffee Excellence. While some literature on coffee has focused on certifications and sustainability labels, the discussion of price determinants has been limited. This article replicates one of the first publications on price determinants and formulates a new model to more accurately describe the market. We include the necessary additional variables and estimate the model using a truncated maximum likelihood estimation technique. While sensory quality has a strong effect on price, the highest premiums stem from obtaining a top rank compared to other coffees from the same country, and North American buyers are more responsive to sensory quality than buyers in Asian and European markets.     

Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon that affects weather around the world. Past ENSO episodes have had severe impacts on the economy of Colombia. We study the influence of ENSO on Colombian coffee production, exports, and price. Our structural econometric specification is consistent with an economic model of the market for Colombian coffee which, in the short run, is characterized by a downward‐sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve. We show that El Niño (i.e., positive shocks to ENSO) is beneficial for Colombian production and exports and decreases the real price of Colombian coffee. On the contrary, La Niña (i.e., negative shocks to ENSO) depresses Colombian coffee production and exports and increases price. However, the overall impact of ENSO shocks is small. Both in the short run and in the long run, shocks to international demand for Colombian coffee are more relevant than supply‐side shocks in Colombia in explaining the dynamics of the price of Colombian coffee. Our results suggest that a given coffee price shock can have beneficial, detrimental, or negligible effects on the Colombian economy, depending on its underlying cause. As a consequence, policy responses to coffee price shocks should be designed by looking at the causes of the shocks.     

Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International‐to‐Retail Price Transmission

We examine the impact of the end of the coffee export quota system (EQS) on international‐to‐retail price transmission in France, Germany and the United States. We take account of the existence of long‐run threshold effects and short‐run price transmission asymmetries (PTAs). We find evidence of threshold effects in both periods (EQS and post‐EQS) in all three countries and the presence of short‐run PTAs during the post‐EQS period in all countries, but not during the EQS period. Our results indicate that the threshold values are smaller in the post‐EQS period, suggesting that retail prices became more responsive to changes in international prices. However, the speed of adjustment towards the long‐run equilibrium decreases during the post‐EQS period in the three countries. In the short run, non‐linear impulse response analyses indicate that a shock in international prices was more persistent during the EQS period than in the post‐EQS period. Moreover, we find evidence of short‐run PTAs in the post‐EQS period, with differences across countries. We find support for the ‘rockets and feathers’ principle in the United States; in contrast, retail prices respond faster when international prices are falling in Germany and France. We explain these differences in terms of market structures.     

El Niño,La Niña,and world coffee price dynamics

Coffee is produced in equatorial and subequatorial regions of the world, which are also most affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.     

A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam

Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world's second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this article examines Vietnamese coffee growers' investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continue producing coffee even at relatively depressed price levels.     

Strategic pricing in a differentiated product oligopoly model: fluid milk in Boston

In an imperfectly competitive industry, differentiated products compete with each other with price rather than quantity as the strategic variable. Several previous studies have employed a generalized Nash–Bertrand model: Liang (1989) , Cotterill (1994) , Cotterill et al. (2000) , and Kinoshita et al. (2002) ; however, only Liang has explored the theoretical foundations of that model. This article generalizes the Liang two‐good model to three goods. A surprising and important result follows. Price‐conjectural variations do not exist in models with three or more goods. Price‐reaction functions, however, exist in multiple‐good models. We estimate them jointly with a brand‐level demand system to evaluate the total impact of a brand manager's price change on own quantity. In a differentiated product market, this is a useful addition to a partial demand elasticity approach, because a change in one brand's price typically engenders a price reaction by other brands that affects own quantity via substantial cross‐price elasticities among substitutes. Strategic pricing in the Boston fluid milk market was also influenced by the existence of a raw milk price support program, the Northeast Dairy Compact. We find that the advent of the Compact was a focal point event that crystallized a shift away from Nash–Bertrand to more cooperative pricing. If the downstream market is not competitive, one needs to consider strategic price reactions when designing and evaluating agricultural price programs.     

Brewing a Bitter Cup? Deregulation,Quality and the Re‐organization of Coffee Marketing in East Africa

To what extent is global economic change mediated by national‐level policies? Are global corporations adopting the same strategies in different countries or do they address varying local circumstances in different ways? Do governments in developing countries have any meaningful regulatory powers left? This paper seeks to address some of these issues by examining the dynamics of coffee‐market reforms in three East African countries against the background of recent restructuring of the global coffee‐marketing chain. The paper focuses on two relatively neglected areas of inquiry: (1)changes in the identity, market share and organization of the actors involved in commodity markets and their contractual/power relationships in the marketing chain; and (2)changes in the assessment, monitoring and valuation of quality parameters in commodity trade. The author highlights the consequences of different trajectories of domestic market reforms and considers whether the preservation of quality and reputation is possible in deregulated markets.     

Country of origin labeling for complex supply chains: the case for labeling the location of different supply chain links

We investigate the value of a country of origin label (COOL) that separately identifies the geographic location of different stages in a food product's supply chain. We estimate the willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) of U.S. consumers for a packaged cereal product where the key grain ingredient may be grown in one country and processed in a second country (multicountry supply chain) and compare it to equivalent products that have both stages located in a single country. We find consumer WTP for products with single‐country and multicountry supply chains are statistically different, meaning that simplifying a multicountry label by listing only the country where the ingredients are grown or only the country where the ingredients are processed can result in different consumer values. We also find that for countries with a poor quality reputation, consumers respond more negatively when that country has the “last touch” than when that country's involvement is limited to upstream supply chain links.     

Econometric mathematical programming: an application to the estimation of costs and risk preferences at farm level

This study belongs to the barely explored research strand of “Econometric Mathematical Programming” and presents a simultaneous estimation of the cost function and of the farmers’ risk attitude parameter in a programming model setup. Resource and policy constraints of the model are allowed to be not binding. We use crop shares as decision variables to avoid scale bias and we consider price and crop yield variances separately. The model is formulated as a bi‐level programming model and the empirical application concerns three unbalanced panels of specialized arable farms observed for at least three consecutive years in Northern Italy, in the Cologne‐Aachen area in Germany and in the Grandes‐Cultures area in France over the time period 1995–2007. We achieve a quite satisfactory fit in the estimation exercise and find own and cross price elasticities from sensitivity experiments in reasonable ranges. We also propose a novel approach to derive confidence intervals around parameter estimates for Econometric Mathematical Programming.     

The effects of fair trade on coffee growers: a framework and analysis

The world coffee market has undergone a significant transformation in the past couple of decades resulting in declining farm prices despite the fact that coffee demand has been strong and consumer prices have been soaring. Fair Trade organizations have tried to address this price imbalance by providing an alternative method of trading aimed at increasing the prices received by coffee growers. Despite their noble objectives, Fair Trade movements have had limited success in improving coffee growers’ welfare, however. This paper utilizes a novel framework of heterogeneous producers and relevant market information to provide insights on the market and welfare impacts of the Fair Trade regime when important idiosyncrasies of Fair Trade production and marketing are included in the analysis.     

Pesticide‐handling practices: the case of coffee growers in Papua New Guinea

Pesticide mismanagement potentially has high risks for farmers, households living in the community and the environment. In Papua New Guinea where farming is the primary occupation, there is evidence of dangerous herbicide application methods being used by coffee growers. Using original survey data for coffee smallholders from four provinces, we assess the factors driving farmers' use of personal protective equipment when preparing and applying herbicides, and farmers' disposal of agro‐chemical containers. We control for households' demographic variables and measure the impact of farmers' training in pest and disease management. We use the special regressor method to estimate binary choice models featuring an endogenous binary regressor (training). Our results show that human capital (education) and training are important drivers of farmers' pesticide‐handling practices, with marginal effects estimated at 10 and 22 per cent, respectively.     

Policies for sustainable development in the hillside areas of Honduras: a quantitative livelihoods approach

In this article, we use data for 376 households, 1,066 parcels, and 2,143 plots located in 95 villages in the hillside areas in Honduras to generate information needed by decision makers to assess the needs and opportunities for public investments, and design policies that stimulate natural resource conservation. We develop a quantitative livelihood approach, using factor and cluster analysis to group households based on the use of their main assets. This resulted in seven household categories that pursue similar livelihood strategies. We use a multinomial logit model to show that livelihood strategies are determined by comparative advantages as reflected by a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic variables. While 92% of the rural hillsides population in Honduras lives on US$1.00/capita/day or less, households that follow a livelihood strategy based on basic grain farming are the poorest because they often live in isolated areas with relatively poor agro‐ecological and socioeconomic conditions. Opportunities for off‐farm work tend to be limited in these areas and household strategies that combine on‐farm work with off‐farm work earn higher incomes. Per capita incomes can be increased by improving road infrastructure, widening access to land, policies that reduce household size and dependency ratios, and adoption of sustainable land management technologies that restore soil fertility. We used probit models to show that the latter can be promoted by agricultural extension programs and land redistribution. Investments in physical assets should be directed toward households that pursue livelihood strategies based on off‐farm employment or coffee production, while agricultural training programs are best focused on livestock producers.     

How Might Shadow Price Restrictions Reduce Technical Efficiency? Evidence from a Restricted DEA Analysis of Coffee Farms in Vietnam

We use data from smallholder coffee farms in Vietnam to measure the technical efficiency of coffee producers, and the degree to which potential restrictions on the shadow prices of chemical inputs might reduce overall efficiency among these farmers. Using input‐oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA) we find the use of pesticide and herbicide accounts for a relatively small proportion of overall technical efficiency in the sample. We place restrictions on input shadow prices and show that restricting their importance does not dramatically alter patterns or measures of short‐run efficiency.     

Assessing the Income Effects of Group Certification for Smallholder Coffee Farmers: Agent‐based Simulation in Uganda

Voluntary sustainability standards, aimed at improving the environmental, social and economic aspects of agricultural production and trade, are becoming increasingly common. The coffee sector is a prime example, where sustainability certification could improve livelihoods for poor smallholders. However, as individual production volumes are low, smallholder farmers need to cooperate in certification as a group, which makes impact assessment more complicated. Previous empirical studies, reporting premia of up to 30%, have neglected the costs associated with group certification. We explore the issue using an agent‐based simulation of coffee producer organisations in Uganda, including the certification‐related costs for farmers. Our results suggest that certification can have a small positive impact on participating households. But the added value of certification is substantially lower than the price premium, because of certification costs. Increasing both the membership of the producer groups and their deliveries of certified coffee are necessary to improve the rewards of certification.     

Armington Elasticities and Tariff Regime: An Application to European Union Rice Imports

The European Union’s (EU) import sources for rice include developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs). The EU has made a commitment to allow duty‐free and quota‐free access to rice imports originating in the LDCs from September 2009 onward. The purpose of this article is to answer two questions: (1) does the inclusion of import tariffs lead to different estimated Armington elasticities? (2) when a discriminating tariff is introduced, what happens to the market share of large rice exporters to the EU, especially of poor countries? We present the Armington model, derived from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, and a non‐homothetic CES utility functional form, which is more flexible. We then estimate the Armington model, with and without the inclusion of a tariff, and we compare the elasticities. Lastly, we model five scenarios with different discriminated import tariff rates to calculate the changes in the market access of large rice exporters to the EU. Our empirical results show the importance of non‐homothetic preferences and import tariffs. Ignoring import tariffs and the non‐homothetic parameter may produce results which are biased and of uncertain validity. Furthermore, the simulation findings demonstrate that, in spite of a large difference between import tariff rate of Suriname and other countries (scenario V), its market access would not change greatly. This may be caused by supply side problems like poor infrastructures, weak technology and small capacity production in LDCs.     

How do obese people afford to be obese? Consumption strategies of Russian households

This article investigates the extent to which Russian households that differ in their members’ weight status adjust their food consumption differently when their economic resources change. Using household‐panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995 to 2005, we estimate total expenditure elasticities of food expenditures, food quantities, and food quality for normal‐weight, overweight, and obese households, respectively. The expenditure elasticities of quality derived for obese households for meat, bread, fruits, and dairy were found to be 15–20% higher than those of normal households. Hence, a change in economic resources causes obese households to adjust the quality of purchased foods significantly more flexibly than normal‐weight households. Only few differences were found for quantity and expenditure reactions. Our results emphasize that policies aiming to reduce obesity should consider deviations in consumption behavior of normal and obese consumers in terms of quality.