Capitalization of Flood Insurance and Risk Perceptions in Housing Prices: An Empirical Agent‐Based Model Approach

Federally regulated or insured lenders in the United States are mandated to require flood insurance on properties that are located in areas at high risk of flooding. Despite the existence of this mandatory flood insurance requirement, take‐up rates for flood insurance have been low, and the federal government's exposure to uninsured property losses from flooding remains substantial. Meanwhile, the value of capital at risk varies significantly with flood events and changing risk perceptions, which necessitates mechanisms that stabilize these dynamics. In this article we discuss how a scenario of complete insurance uptake, under various risk attitudes, affects the value of properties in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood zones. Our results indicate that an increase in flood insurance uptake may provide such a mechanism by lowering the value of capital at risk in the flood zone consistently, independent of homeowners' risk attitudes. We apply an empirical adaptive agent‐based model to examine the capitalization of insurance costs, risk premiums, and their interaction in housing prices. Our approach combines widely‐used empirical hedonic analysis with the computational economic framework. We highlight the usefulness of our method in capturing the marginal implicit price of homeowners' preferences that may change over time and separately assess the effect of various factors and policies on property values, illustrating the agent‐based modeling as a valuable complement to traditional hedonic analysis.     

Flood Fatalities in the United States: The Roles of Socioeconomic Factors and the National Flood Insurance Program

Flooding is the most frequent disaster type among all severe weather events in the United States. Over the 20‐year period from 1996 to 2015, a total of 107,743 floods resulted in 1563 fatalities and over $167 billion in damages. Climate models suggest that the risk of major flooding will increase in the coming years. In this article, we provide new analysis of the life‐saving role of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) using county‐level data for the United States over the years 1996–2015. The integrated view of the physical, social, economic, and political elements of disaster vulnerability guides the empirical analysis. Our analysis indicates that people most affected by floods are those who have weaker economic and social bases; lower education levels and poor housing quality increase flood vulnerability. We also find that local government spending on public safety and welfare significantly reduces overall flood vulnerability. Importantly, our estimates present new evidence that ex ante floodplain management and mitigation efforts required for participation in the NFIP have played a vital role in reducing flood‐related fatalities.     

Heading for the Hills? Effects of Community Flood Management on Local Adaptation to Flood Risks

The Community Rating System (CRS) program was implemented by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 1990 as an optional program to encourage communities to voluntarily engage in flood mitigation initiatives. This article uses national census tract‐level data from 1980 to 2010 to estimate whether CRS participation and flood risk affect a community's local patterns of population change. We employ an instrumental‐variables strategy to address the potential endogeneity of CRS participation, based on community‐scale demographic factors that predict when a tract's host community joins the CRS. The results find significant effects of the CRS program and flood risk on population change. Taken together, the findings point to greater propensity for community‐scale flood management in areas with more newcomers and programs such as CRS stabilizing population, though not especially in flood‐prone areas. We observe the CRS neither displacing population toward lower‐risk areas nor attracting more people to flood‐prone areas.     

The Impact of Housing Prices on Health in the United States Before,During, and After the Great Recession

We estimate the effects of U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area housing prices on a variety of health outcomes and health-related behaviors separately for homeowners and tenants. The constructed data set consists of information on individuals from the 2002–2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System combined with homeownership data from the March Current Population Survey and housing prices from Freddie Mac. We estimate positive effects on homeowners' mental health when housing prices increase. We also find negative effects on tenants' health and health-related behaviors with increases in housing prices. These estimated contemporaneous effects are concentrated among low-income homeowners and tenants, and the effects for tenants are not persistent in the long run. However, the cumulative effects of an increase in housing prices on obesity become more pronounced for homeowners in the long run, resulting in worse self-reported health.     

Climate Forecasts and Flood Mitigation

There is growing evidence that flood mitigation is often inefficient because individuals misestimate flood risk. The propensity to misestimate flood risk is expected to rise because climate change ensures the past will be a poor predictor of the future. Greater reliance on downscaled climatological and hydrological forecasts has been suggested to address these information failures. This article combines stochastic dynamic programming with historical data and climate‐driven streamflow projections to determine how changes in flood risk forecasts influence optimal investments in flood mitigation infrastructure. Using upgrades in California's levee system as an example, we show that climate change is causing benefit–cost analysis to become increasingly biased in favor of flood mitigation infrastructure projects. We also show that using downscaled hydroclimate forecasts to achieve more accurate estimates of flood risk can decrease the efficiency of flood mitigation infrastructure investments, if flood risk is currently overestimated. JEL Classification: D81 Q25 Q54     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

Discretionary Disclosures to Risk‐Averse Traders: A Research Note

Verrecchia (1983) investigates a manager's incentives for costly, discretionary disclosure of his information to risk‐averse traders when the functional form of prices is exogenously specified. We extend Verrecchia (1983) by deriving the endogenously determined functional form of prices that would arise when all traders have constant risk tolerance. We show that these endogenously determined prices are inconsistent with the assumed prices in Verrecchia (1983) when the manager elects to not disclose. We derive the manager's disclosure strategy for our setting and extend the comparative static results in Verrecchia (1990) for risk‐neutral traders to a setting where traders have constant risk tolerance and prices are endogenously derived. Further, in our setting, discretionary disclosure does not affect how traders price risk of different outcomes. Also, we offer a representation of risk‐averse traders' prices using risk‐adjusted distributions. Finally, these results provide implications for empirical‐archival discretionary disclosure studies.     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

WATER BILL ESTIMATION WHEN PRICE IS CRYPTIC: EXPERIENCE FROM WINDHOEK,NAMIBIA

For water policy to be effective, policy makers must know how water users perceive and respond to changes in water prices. However, it is not uncommon for water prices faced by consumers to be unclear. In Windhoek, Namibia, the marginal and average water price is difficult to calculate from the information provided in users' utility bills. This paper applies a hedonic pricing approach to investigate price perceptions of water users in a setting with cryptic price information. Using self‐reported water charges as the dependent variable, the pricing model utilises reported utility characteristics and other factors that may affect perceived price. Low‐income standpipe water users report a weighted average monthly charges of N$24.68, whereas users in high income segments report N$521.34. This reflects differences in service levels, possible subsidies to low‐income users and potential errors in respondents' understanding of their water price. Average price per litre (N$11.78 for the low‐use segment; N$1.89 for the highest segment of Tier 1 water use) tends to be perceived as higher by those with lower water use even though average prices in the relevant range should generally be identical.     

INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR THE PROPERTY PRICE BOOM IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa appears to share some of the characteristics (property price boom, easing of monetary policy, strong domestic demand growth) of asset price booms in industrial countries that were followed by a period of weak growth. The international experience suggests that a number of practical obstacles need to be overcome before a more proactive role for monetary policy is warranted. However, a larger variety of available mortgage contracts, including longer‐term fixed‐rate contracts, should allow for a more efficient allocation of interest rate risks. Also, a more systematic nationwide collection of property price data, including data on commercial property price developments, would provide a more representative basis for analysis.     

COLLECTIVE ACTION IN SMALLHOLDER ORGANIC FARMING: A STUDY OF THE EZEMVELO FARMERS' ORGANIZATION IN KWAZULU-NATAL

This study analyses the Ezemvelo Farmers' Organisation (EFO), a certified organic smallholder group in KwaZulu‐Natal province (South Africa), as an institution to improve smallholder access to a niche market by reducing unit production and transaction costs in the supply chain. Using a multinomial logit model, results suggest that EFO is more likely to survive if it continues to secure fully subsidised information, transport, fencing, and certification services for its members, and if it improves the benefits of participating by synchronising harvest and delivery dates, negotiating price discounts for organic inputs, and by maintaining an office with telephone, fax and postal services.     

页岩气资源开发的经济性评价

天然气在世界能源消费占有重要地位,页岩气开发已经成为世界热点,也是我国能源企业寻求海外优质资产的重点之一,合理的经济评价是保证海外页岩气资产收购成功的关键因素。选用合理的模型计算了页岩气产量曲线,建立了基于页岩气田开发流程的经济评价方法,绘制了基于产量与价格的内部收益率图版,为海外页岩气项目开发经济性评价提供了参考与借鉴。     

THE ECONOMICS OF PLASTIC BAG LEGISLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA1

In May 2003 South Africa introduced legislation intended to decrease plastic bag litter. It combined standards and price‐based economic tools in an attempt to reduce the public's demand for plastic bags. This paper analyses the short term effects of the legislation on bag demand. It also provides a background to these regulations and a theoretical overview. The assessment uses bag consumption data from four retailers, each representing a different consumer market. These are analysed, and respective price elasticities calculated. The results suggest that plastic bag demand is relatively price inelastic and imply that instruments utilising price alone, would have limited efficacy. However, the combination of standards and pricing successfully curbed plastic bag use in the short run. Further analysis suggests that the effectiveness of the legislation may be declining over time.     

Green Consumption under Misperceived Prices: An Application to Active Transportation

We propose a consumption model that captures the impact that perceived price ambiguities may have upon decision‐making in green markets in general and in active transportation markets in particular. The basic intuition for the model is that a consumer who may be misperceiving the price of the green good (the active transportation mode) would be willing to pay a positive amount from her income in the current period to resolve the misperception going forward. We posit that the basis for the price misperception in the active transportation context is misperception of the relative risks involved in taking that mode. The compensating variation that aligns perceived and objective risk is derived. We show how raising green consumption via price misperception correction can be superior to traditional economic policy instruments. The results shed light on the more general family of situations in which agents may consistently misperceive aspects of the decision environment.     

Can Shareholders Be at Rest after Adopting Clawback Provisions? Evidence from Stock Price Crash Risk

Using a propensity score matched sample and a difference‐in‐differences research design, we find that stock price crash risk increases after a firm voluntarily incorporates clawback provisions in executive officers' compensation contracts. This heightened crash risk is concentrated in adopters that increase upward real activities‐based earnings management and those that reduce the readability of 10‐K reports. Based on cross‐sectional analyses, we also find that the increased crash risk is more pronounced for adopters with high ex ante fraud risk, low‐ability managers, high CEO equity incentives, and low dedicated institutional ownership. Collectively, our results suggest that the clawback adoption per se does not curb managerial opportunism but rather induces managers to use alternative channels for concealing bad news, which may contribute to a greater stock price crash risk; and the increase in crash risk is more likely in cases where incentives are strong or monitoring is weak. Our results should be of interest to regulators and policymakers considering the effects of clawback adoption on the investing public.     

Weathering the Storm: Measuring Household Willingness‐to‐Pay for Risk‐Reduction in Post‐Katrina New Orleans

The city of New Orleans suffered extensive damage as a result of Hurricane Katrina. Rebuilding involves decisions on investment in protective measures. An exhaustive list of protective measures has been studied in planning documents, with public comment solicited in town hall meetings. In this study we employ a different approach to examine public sentiment toward the selection and investment in protective measures. Our study uses a stated preference choice experiment with a stratified sample to investigate individuals' willingness‐to‐pay for rebuilding New Orleans's man‐made storm defenses, restoring natural storm protection, and improving evacuation options through a modernized transportation system. We target residents of the New Orleans metropolitan area as well as other U.S. citizens. Our results indicate that individuals are willing to pay for increased storm protection for New Orleans, but values differ among residents of the New Orleans metropolitan area and other U.S. citizens.     

Market Performance Implications of the Transfer Price Rule

The “transfer price rule” (TPR) defines a vertical price squeeze as an input price, output price combination set by a vertically‐integrated firm monopoly producer of an essential input that would not allow the firm's downstream unit to earn at least a normal rate of return on investment in the “as‐if” case that it had to purchase the input at the price charged independent firms. In its 2009 linkLine decision, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the TPR for the purpose of enforcing the anti‐monopolization prohibition of Section 2 of the Sherman Act. In contrast, a vertical price squeeze, defined by a TPR‐like standard, is an abuse of a dominant position under Article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. In this article, we model the impact of the TPR on market performance. We find that the TPR increases consumer surplus and net social welfare if all firms remain active in the downstream market. It sometimes induces the upstream firm to refuse to supply the downstream firm, and in such cases, consumer surplus and net social welfare are reduced. The impact of the TPR on market performance thus depends on whether or not an upstream firm can refuse to supply downstream firms on terms that would offer it at least a normal rate of return on investment.     

第三者责任强制保险制度探析

自《道路交通法》颁布后,由于机动车第三者责任强制保险条例的滞后,导致了实践中司法部门在该制度适用上的混乱。2006年7月1日,《机动车第三者责任强制保险条例》的正式实行明晰了强制险与商业第三者责任险的界限,弥补了立法上的空白,也带来新的问题。笔者从第三者责任强制险的基本理论入手,阐述其必要性,通过分析与探讨第三者强制责任保险与第三者责任险的关系,引出第三者责任强制保险所面临的困境,并提出相应的解决方案,以期待于该制度的进一步完善。     

The Impact of R&D Cooperations and Mergers in Pharmaceuticals on Research Activities and Drugs Offered on the Market

In the last 10 years, the pharmaceutical industry has experienced steep, unprecedented price increases which are frequently attributed to increasing drug development costs. To cope with rocketing development costs, companies engage in Research and Development (R&D) cooperations. We study the impact of R&D cooperations on firms' research activities and drugs offered on the market. Using a comprehensive dataset, we find that R&D cooperations formed at the early stage of the drug development process increase the number of R&D projects and the number of drugs offered on the market. Late stage R&D cooperations, formed among larger firms in technology and product markets, increase firms' research activities, but reduce the number of drugs launched on the product market. Results suggest that large firms cooperating in the late research stage re‐optimize their R&D pipelines and eliminate similarly aligned research projects.     

Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment： Evidence from Chinese Micro Data

This paper investigates how a firm's characteristics restrict the influence of monetary policy changes on its investment behavior. Focusing on China's listed companies for a sample period from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2011, we find that quantity‐oriented and price‐based monetary policies have heterogeneous impacts on corporate investment behavior, but the influence of monetary policies is constrained by the liquidity, inventory, size and asset–liability ratio of a firm. Firms with higher liquidity, lower inventory level and lower asset–liability ratios are less sensitive to the impact from two kinds of monetary policies. The larger the size of the firm, the less it is subject to influence from quantity‐oriented monetary policy; it responds more to price‐based monetary policy. The policy implication is that the monetary authorities should pay attention to the importance of policy‐making based on the monetary demand of microeconomic entities.