Rebalancing China's Economy: Domestic and International Implications

This paper considers interactions between China's domestic and external imbalances and their global implications. We present scenarios detailing how a rebalancing of China's growth pattern from investment‐driven growth towards more consumption‐driven growth may occur in practice. Using input–output tables for 2012, we illustrate the knife‐edged nature of Chinese rebalancing, the linkages between expenditure‐side and production‐side rebalancing, and how an internal rebalancing could exacerbate external imbalances. A policy implication for China is that for rebalancing to be fast, consumption must be exceptionally resilient and the efficiency of investment must increase sharply. If rebalancing is too slow, the capital‐to‐output ratio will rise to potentially unsustainable levels and consumption will fail to attain levels of contemporary upper middle‐income economies by 2030. Global input–output tables (1995–2011) suggest that the patterns of Chinese rebalancing considered in our scenarios may generate substantial headwinds for exports to China by its trading partners.     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

Transportation and The International Trade of Eastern and Southern Africa

We use new data on transportation to determine its effect on the international trade of eastern and southern Africa (ESA). The effects were estimated with gravity models using alternative techniques to check for robustness. Freight forwarders provided information on freight charges (price), average duration of shipment (time) and variability in time. The new transportation variables and the more commonly used distance variable appear to have smaller effects overall than some previous research indicated, although our distance coefficient is identical to that of Coulibaly and Fotagné for West Africa. In contrast to other research critical of distance as a proxy for transport impediments, we find similar effects from distance and our measure of transport time, but both of these variables have significantly larger coefficients than price and variability. Landlocked ESA countries are twice as dependent on trade as the whole region after accounting for control variables, but they are not significantly more affected by changes in price and time, and they are less affected by distance and variability. The relative size of the time coefficients suggests that measures to lessen delays in shipping, for instance, faster border clearance, might encourage more trade than cost cutting measures that lowered price proportionately.     

China's Anti‐dumping Problems and Mitigation through Regional Trade Agreements

The present paper explores the opportunities for China's regional trade agreement (RTA) initiatives to mitigate its anti‐dumping problems. The paper highlights the severity and discriminatory nature of China's anti‐dumping problems. The high concentration of the share of anti‐dumping actions taken by the top 4 and top 8 anti‐dumping initiators is noted. Our finding of a weak effect of existing RTAs on mitigating China's anti‐dumping problems supports the argument that China could become more active in mitigating anti‐dumping problems through RTA negotiations. An RTA can include a higher level of openness in exchange for an improvement in regional anti‐dumping provisions. Case studies on RTAs involving the EU, the USA and India offer some precedents for offering inducements and modifying regional anti‐dumping provisions. The approaches for China may lie in obtaining market economy status from intensive anti‐dumping initiators at RTA levels and also altering regional anti‐dumping provisions that could be put in place in exchange for some potential concessions.     

China's WTO Commitments in Agriculture and Impacts of Potential OECD Agricultural Trade Liberalizations*

After accession to the WTO, China's agriculture is affected by the implementation of its WTO commitments and will be impacted by any multilateral liberalization (actions by the rich OECD economies in particular) resulting from the Doha negotiations. Using the actual commitment data, our computable general equilibrium simulation results show that China's WTO commitments will lead to increased agricultural imports and slightly declined outputs in China. The resulting efficiency gains will be negated by terms‐of‐trade losses, leading to quantitatively small welfare impacts. Furthermore, sectoral results depend critically on correctly representing the more complex policy measures, such as the tariff rate quotas. The negative output effects on Chinese agriculture can be alleviated/reversed if the rich OECD countries commit to reform their agriculture policies. The present paper concludes that trade liberalization should be carried out in both developing and developed countries. Reforming the latter will be particularly helpful in easing the problems facing those developing countries that are carrying out ambitious trade reforms.     

Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion: Evidence from China

Over the past three decades, we have seen a dramatic increase in the incidence of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping duties and countervailing duties. China has been at the receiving end of a large number of such measures. In this paper, we study how China's exports to its major trade partners have been affected when its major trade partners have used these measures either against China or against other countries. We find that Chinese exports to the country that imposed an antidumping duty decreased by approximately 35 percent. At the same time, an antidumping duty used by the importing country that was directed towards other countries but not against China led to an approximate 30‐percent increase in China's exports to the policy‐imposing country. These results remain robust across various specifications. Our findings have important policy implications. In particular, the magnitude of these effects highlights why it is important to curb the recent widespread use of these barriers.     

Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have persistently experienced different waves of commodity terms of trade disturbances, generating macroeconomic instabilities. The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by many EMEs has raised questions about its relative suitability in dealing with these shocks compared with other monetary policy regimes. This paper tests the robustness of IT compared with monetary targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes in coping with commodity terms of trade shocks using the panel vector autoregressive technique. The results show that in general, IT countries respond better to commodity terms of trade shocks especially with respect to inflation and output gap. However, exchange rates are more volatile in IT countries than in exchange rate targeting countries. The results suggest that EME countries can reduce the adverse effects of commodity terms of trade fluctuations when they adopt IT, but they also need to pay attention to exchange rate movements.     

我国贸易顺差结构、成因及国际比较

文章总结改革开放以来我国贸易顺差的三个阶段,分析近几年贸易顺差的结构性特征。据此认为,我国贸易顺差实际是一种转移顺差,是国际间产业转移以及资本项目顺差隐形转移的必然产物,是我国劳动力价格、国内产能过剩及内需不足、配额限制取消等因素综合作用的结果。提出从顺差总量、贸易不平衡度以及顺差与GDP之比的国际比较上看,中国贸易顺差并不像一些研究人员所认为的那样严重。     

Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China＇s International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development

This study aims to examine the impact of the China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China's international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that: (i) CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilateral agricultural trade and, hence, will have positive effects on the economic development of both sides; (ii) CAFTA will accelerate China's export of the agricultural commodities in which it has comparative advantages, such as vegetables, wheat and horticultural products, but at the same time bring about a large increase in imports of commodities such as vegetable oil and sugar; and (iii) CAFTA will have significantly varying impacts on China's regional agricultural development because of large differences in the agricultural production structure in each region. Our results indicate that agriculture in the northern, northeastern and eastern regions of China will benefit from CAFTA, whereas agriculture development in southern China will suffer. Those regional specific impacts are quite different from the effects brought by multilateral free trade treaties, such as those of the WTO, which usually have positive effects on south China but negative impacts on the northern and western parts of China.     

China's Foreign Trade: A “New Normal”

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China's foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The new driving force of change is ordinary trade, based mainly on local inputs and domestic demand. China, which played a major role in the globalization process as an export base for multinational companies, is now shifting to having a “normal” foreign trade system, which is more closely integrated into the domestic economy.     

Trade and Tax Reforms in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy

We examine the effects of both tariff‐only and coordinated trade‐tax reforms on market access, government revenue, and welfare for a small monetary economy, under the assumption that a certain fraction of purchases of each good must be financed with cash held in advance. We show that if the cash requirement ratio in the exportable sector is greater than that in the importable, then, contrary to previous results, (i) a uniform radial reduction of tariffs has ambiguous effects on both welfare and market access, (ii) tariff and consumption tax reforms that leave consumer prices unchanged may be more efficient in improving market access and welfare than a reform that involves only tariffs, and (iii) export and production tax reforms that keep producer prices unchanged may be welfare deteriorating.     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

Expanding the Division of Labour: Trade Costs and Supply Chains in the Global Economy

In the pre-1914 globalisation reduction in trade costs allowed finer specialisation. The quantitative evidence is strong for some components of trade costs, but less so for aggregate trade costs. In the second globalisation, international supply chains have become an important element of the global economy, and we have better data to examine the links between trade costs and supply chains. After a brief review of the standard account of the evolution of supply chains, the article examines the quantitative evidence; regional value chains (RVCs) are especially strong, but the origins and nature of RVCs differ in Europe, the Americas and Asia. The paper then presents evidence on trade costs, focusing on the years since 1990 when both data and computing facilities became more comprehensive, and analyses the relationship between trade costs and supply chains.     

Policy Analysis and Development Evaluation of Digital Trade: An International Comparison

As an extension of traditional trade, digital trade is a new type of trade in the era of the digital economy. In this paper, we first analyze the digital trade‐related strategies of eight leading economies through word clouds and dissect China's digital trade‐related policies using the word frequency method by sorting through the digital trade‐related policy documents of 26 economies and Chinese provinces. We then evaluate the status quo of digital trade development in 111 countries and Chinese provinces by building a digital trade index system to determine the development environment and market potential. The results show that all countries attach great importance to digital technology, data and government guidance in the development of digital trade. The results also reveal that “development,” “service” and “construction” are the three most frequently used words in various Chinese documents. The overall level of China's digital trade is at the global vanguard, but is characterized by uneven regional development. In the era of digital trade, traditional international trade theory is also in urgent need of breakthroughs and innovation.     

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of International Trade: A Vector Error-Correction Study

This study examines various claims that in the U.S., international trade has contributed to a loss of manufacturing base, an increased gap between unskilled and skilled wages, lower employment, and a loss of productivity. Cointegration tests indicate that in the long run and at the macro level, the ratio of trade to output and FDI to output are correlated with the manufacturing share of output, the ratio of unskilled to skilled wages, labor productivity, and the employment rate. However, Granger causality tests reveal that, with one exception, causation does not run from trade to the domestic variables, the only exception being that FDI Granger causes productivity. When the focus is shifted to the manufacturing sector, the results support the proposition that openness to trade has had adverse effects on this sector.A slightly different version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 16–19, 2003 in Quebec City, Canada. The research reported in this paper is partially funded by a grant from the Institute for Global Economic Affairs at Marquette University.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Financial Market Bubbles and Long‐term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital outflows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy‐induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital outflows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan's experience and given that China's foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.     

International capital flows,debt overhang and volatility

This paper shows how international capital flows originate boom‐bust and sunspot episodes in a neoclassical growth model of a small, open economy. A limit is imposed on how much the economy can borrow from foreign creditors and it is made endogenous by assuming that the debt‐to‐GDP ratio is procyclical. The steady state is locally indeterminate when the credit multiplier is larger than some threshold level, whereas saddle‐point stability prevails when the credit multiplier is low enough. As a consequence, high levels of the credit multiplier lead to both booms followed by busts and sunspot‐driven volatility near the steady state, while, in contrast, low levels ensure monotonic convergence. Compared with saddle‐path equilibria, boom‐bust and sunspot equilibria are associated with both lower welfare and debt overhang, that is, a crowding‐out effect of credit: when the economy is highly leveraged, it uses savings to cut down foreign debt, at the expense of both human and physical investment. Numerical examples show that indeterminacy arises for debt‐to‐GDP ratios that fall within the range of available estimates. Finally, the effects of shocks to the world interest rate on output and consumption are amplified and persistent in the debt overhang regime.     

EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE,MONETARY POLICY,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: ARGENTINA, 1993–2004

The exchange market pressure (EMP) against a currency has been frequently measured as the sum of the loss of international reserves plus the loss of nominal value of that currency. This paper follows the tradition of investigating the interactions between such a measure of EMP and monetary policy; but it also questions the usual omission of output growth in empirical investigations. The focus of this work is Argentina between 1993 and 2004. As in previous studies, we found some evidence of a positive and double‐direction relationship between EMP and domestic credit. But output growth also played a role in the determination of EMP, even more than domestic credit or interest rates. Also, there is some evidence that EMP affected growth negatively.     

The Zollverein and the Sequence of a Customs Union

The Zollverein was the first international customs union, essentially defining these particular trade agreements. This article utilizes the predictions of a game theoretic model to explain the observed sequence of accessions into this union. Coalition externalities, the effects the accession of one state has on states remaining on the outside, are the central mechanisms shaping the negotiations between Prussia, the agenda setter, and other German states. This is demonstrated by detailing these financial, strategic, and political externalities, and demonstrating their influence on trade policy decisions.     

Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes,Past and Present

The early‐twenty first century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places the most recent terms of trade boom in its historical context. While similarities exist with previous episodes, the macroeconomic policy frameworks and settings prevailing were quite different to those of the past. These different frameworks and settings mitigated the broader macroeconomic consequences of the terms of trade upswing and may do likewise as it declines.