Trade union recognition and the recession in the UK

Against a background of falling union density and the increased presence of non-union plants and firms in the UK, this paper reviews union attempts to obtain recognition in recent years. Particular attention is paid to the use of conciliation for this purpose, with the evidence indicating a considerable decline in union success.     

Service: the next frontier

There is a revolution taking place in the U.S. economy, a service revolution. Today, over 70 percent of the gross national product and 75 percent of all jobs can be attributed to the service sector. This monumental change is affecting not only service firms but also manufacturers. It is estimated that anywhere from 30 to 70 percent of the value added by a typical manufacturer is due to the service component. This article discusses the increased importance of services in our economy and on our shop floors. If manufacturers are to prosper in the coming decade, they will need to embrace this change and put services and service operations at the forefront of their strategic plans.     

Tracing the connections: short-termism,training and recession

It is frequently claimed that some employers act to maximise short-term gains at the expense of long-term rewards, hence reducing the level of employee training. In addition, during a recession such employers are expected to be the keenest to make further cutbacks. This paper examines the empirical validity of these two claims by examining the links between three proxies for short-termism and the incidence and volume of training activity as well as recession-induced changes to training expenditure and the proportion of the workforce trained. The results are based on establishment-level data taken from 67,599 private sector employers in England in 2009 and enriched with data from other sources (with sample sizes falling accordingly). The results suggest that short-termism plays a role in explaining both the level of training activity supported by employers and its sensitivity to the economic cycle. However, the results are rather ambiguous with one of the proxies suggesting that, contrary to theoretical reasoning, training incidence and volume is higher, not lower, in establishments which belong to stock market listed rather than unlisted enterprises. To make further analytical headway, then, direct measures of short-termism are needed rather than indirect, albeit improved, measures of the type used here.     

Industrial relations in the next decade

Here the authors discuss current trends in British industrial relations and their likelihood of continuing. The central question is that of the probable consequences for management and unions of the sustained rise in unemployment.     

what next after the ERM debacle?

What sort of policy should the government pursue after quitting the ERM. Five leading monetary economists give their views on what the government should do now. J.M. Keynes provides a far-sighted commentary from the past and G.R. Steele speculates whether it was ever reasonable to expect a single currency to evolve from the ERM.     

Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across different models, extending the model specification by adding MA terms, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track using a specific form of intercept correction. Among these methods, adjusting the original nowcasts and forecasts by an amount similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery seems to produce the best results for the US, notwithstanding the different source and characteristics of the financial crisis. In particular, the adjusted growth nowcasts for 2020Q1 get closer to the actual value, and the adjusted forecasts based on alternative indicators become much more similar, all unfortunately indicating a much slower recovery than without adjustment, and very persistent negative effects on trend growth. Similar findings also emerge for forecasts by institutions, for survey forecasts, and for the other G7 countries.     

Growth at the EU periphery: the next enlargement

In 2004, 75 million people are scheduled to become EU citizens, making this the largest round of expansion of the Western European club to date. Of the 10 new entrants, 8 are former socialist economies, for which membership in the EU represents the coronation of an effort began with the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989. Based on their recent economic performance, the Central and Eastern European countries appear to be well on their way to successfully integrate in the Western European club, while the Baltic Republics still lag behind. The gap between the two groups emerges when we consider the adjustment of the production structure, the composition of trade and FDI flows, and income distribution. The evidence we review appears to support the role of institutional quality to facilitate integration in the world market and overall economic performance.     

Specialty products: the next challenge for alliances

As group purchasing matures, alliances and GPOs will need to expand their contract portfolio to include specialty products. As groups and manufacturers negotiate successful specialty products agreements and hospitals actively support those contracts, the industry as a whole stands to benefit. If alliance and manufacturers do not attempt to negotiate specialty products agreements that bring value to both parties, hospitals will miss out on savings, and suppliers will lose market share opportunities.     

Let's fight the next sovereign debt war now

Recent difficulties in Mexico have reminded us of the dangers of financial crisis in heavily indebted countries. In this article, Richard Portes argues that we need to plan now to deal with the next sovereign debt crisis. He proposes a programme of reform to enable an orderly 'work-out'of debt in such situations. This, he argues, is preferable to an expensive bailout or a messy and dangerous default.     

Germany — the next Japan?

The German economy is in a hole, and it can’t stop digging. The tools that normally help an economy to get out of a hole are digging Germany further in. Hamstrung by the terms of the Stability and Growth Pact, it is planning a substantial tightening of fiscal policy over the next few years. And, with inflation below the Eurozone average and falling, and nominal interest rates set by the ECB, real monetary conditions are tightening as well: this at a time when Germany is already in recession. How long before the German economy sets off on the deflationary path trodden in Japan over the last decade?     

Great recession,slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US

This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the subsequent jobless recovery is explained by the ZLB effect. We estimate a fraction of Non-Ricardian households which is close to 50%, and obtain comparatively large fiscal multipliers. However we cannot detect a significant contribution of fiscal policies in stabilizing the US economy. For instance, the 2007–2009 large increase in expenditure-to-GDP ratios was apparently determined by the adverse non-policy shocks that caused the recession.     

The Measurement of Consumption Efficiency Considering the Discrete Choice of Consumers

In this study we propose a mathematical definition of the consumption efficiency of multi-attribute products in the price–quality space. A new model, the discrete Range Adjusted Measure (RAM) model, is suggested as an empirical tool to measure the level of consumption efficiency. We further discuss the effect of consumption efficiency on the innovation incentive. Empirical work is made for the mobile phone market. We expect that the consumption efficiency concept will contribute to the extension of the traditional framework of production efficiency analysis on the one hand and to the understanding of the nature of innovation in a technology-intensive market on the other hand.JEL Classification: C67, D11, D12, D21     

为何赢得中国消费者比想象中难?

又一个跨国巨头折戟中国,这一次是图书大鳄贝塔斯曼。这样类似的跨国巨头还有很多。它们为何没能搞定中国消费者?或者说,为何赢得中国消费者比想象中难?为了解答这一致命疑问,埃森哲咨询公司两年前启动了一项     

Strategic imperatives for managing materiel into the next century

The next century of opportunity is less than a decade away. Materiel management must involve itself in the strategic changes occurring within the health care industry and its respective institutions. Those materiel managers who are aggressively ensuring that their operations are supported by a well-developed and well-orchestrated operational infrastructure are now well positioned to address the future challenges of this decade. Unfortunately, many other materiel managers are focusing their attention and efforts solely on the management of materiel for which they currently have control. Materiel managers must develop an acute awareness of the support needs of their respective organizations. Those who are not apprehensive about venturing from the traditional materiel management world will be exposed to incredible educational opportunities and will receive responsibilities of unparalleled organizational importance.