加强两地经贸合作促进香港经济发展

近年来,随着经济全球化的快速拓展,区域经济一体化趋势也在迅速增强。在这一趋势下,各国及各地区都在加快调整经济发展战略,通过开展多边和双边等不同形式的经济合作,来增强本国及本地区的经济竞争力,以抵御或减少经济全球化带来的影响及冲击。近期,中国内地与香港建立“更紧密     

人民币与港币一体化刍议

本文比较了人民币与港币一体化的成本效益,分析了两地货币一体化的现实基础和障碍,设计了人民币和港币货币一体化的模式,提出了相应的实施步骤和配套改革的对策建议。     

A robust textual analysis of the dynamics of Hong Kong property market

Market sentiments influence the dynamics of Hong Kong’s macro-critical property market, but the unobservable nature of market sentiments makes it difficult to systemically assess this sentiment channel. Using text mining techniques, this paper sets up a news-based property market sentiment index and a Google Trends-based buyer incentive index for Hong Kong and studies the sentiment channel of transmission in the Hong Kong property market. The news-based property market sentiment index can reflect the change in sentiments in past key events, with the sentiments in the primary market tending to lead that of the secondary market during the low housing supply period. For the Google Buyer Incentive Index, we find that it has value-added in forecasting (or nowcasting) the official property price index. In mapping out the sentiment channel using a structural vector-autoregressive model, we find that an improvement in market sentiments could stimulate buyers’ incentives, which then together would affect property prices and transaction volumes.     

Free Banking in Hong Kong

Hong Kong has no central bank and its paper currency is issued by two private commercial banks. Cointegration tests and an error-correction model are used to examine the stability of the money supply process under pegged and floating exchange rates. Empirical evidence suggests feedback between the price level and money supply during the floating rate period but stability under a pegged rate. [E 42]     

从香港与内地的贸易关系看香港经济的明天

近年来,香港正经历着备受关注的第三次经济结构转型,香港的贸易形态也发生了很大变化,对香港经济产生了重大影响.究竞这次经济转型的前景如何?香港经济的明天路在何方?本文立足于香港与内地的贸易发展与现状,从两地经贸关系近年呈现出的新趋势出发,分析了在香港经济转型过程中与内地经贸关系的新特点,定位了香港未来在亚太经济圈中的功能,并指明了香港经济的发展方向.     

香港中产阶级

在香港,中产阶级长期以来都是采用个人的方法,就是我不要问这个体制是什么样的,我也不问什么是应该不应该的,我只是在既定的条件下努力拿到最好的东西。     

我国大陆与香港地区贸易的引力模型分析

利用引力模型将中国大陆各省、自治区、直辖市对香港地区出口的实际值与模型估计值进行比较,发现参与泛珠三角区域经济合作的各省、自治区、直辖市与香港地区贸易联系密切,从一个侧面说明泛珠三角区域经济合作具有较好的基础.     

内地和香港加强服务贸易合作的利益分析

随着中国加入WTO，几年内将逐步对外开放国内的服务业。在2003年6月29日，内地与香港签署了CEPA，其内容之一就是内地提早向香港开放服务业市场。内地的服务业尚未成熟完善，而这正好是香港的强项。本文通过理论和实证分析，说明了内地和香港通过加强服务贸易合作，都能够从中获得比较利益，实现经济增长，增加就业。     

香港 伦敦欲结盟

<正> 香港交易及结算所有限公司(香港交易所)目前正与伦敦证券交易所研究,在双方的电子交易系统进行买卖两地上市股份,并且让两个股市的上市公司,可以在香港及伦敦同时上市。目标:实现24小时环球交易分析家认为,此事若能议成,无疑会     

The market distortion effects of mortgage tightening and transaction taxes: Evidence from Hong Kong residential resale market

By using transaction-level data, we study if two popular policies intended to cool an overheated housing market would serve their intended purposes. We found both mortgage tightening and Special Stamp Duties (SSD) actually led to higher starter home prices in Hong Kong. Mortgage tightening shifted the demand for bigger homes to that for smaller ones. The SSD that applies to resales within a specified period of the original purchase lowered turnover across the housing market. The decline in turnover is, as expected, sharpest for small flats, implying a dramatic shrinkage in second-hand supply of such homes, driving their prices up. We also found transactions bunching as many homes are held till the SSD is no longer applicable, indicating lock-in effects. Relative to those that are not subject to the SSD, the prices of properties subject to the levy are found to be lower by 6.8%.     

调整、孕育、成长、双赢--论香港经济转型与两地经济关系

面临新一轮转型的历史性转折香港回归后，以应对亚洲金融危机的冲击为契机，开始了经济结构的新一轮转型。1998年亚洲金融危机暴露出香港经济存在的结构性缺陷，很容易受国际经济和金融波动的冲击。进入21世纪初期，香港发展将面临几个方面的巨大挑战：第一，从国际国内分工关系来看，新加坡、台湾等周边经济体都与香港形成了较强的竞争态势，内地经济的崛起以及上海等大城市经济的发展和开放程度日益增大，将在对外贸易、航运物流、国际金融和商业等香港传统优势领域与香港形成既合作又竞争的关系。第二，从产业发展来看，香港原有的劳动密…     

Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between US and Hong Kong

The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows is still the center of attention in international economics. A few studies that have looked at this effect in Hong Kong have used either aggregate data between Hong Kong and the rest of the world or between Hong Kong and several of her major trading partners. They have been unable to locate any significant effect. Suspecting that existing studies could suffer from aggregation bias, we concentrate on the trade between Hong Kong and the US and disaggregate their trade flows further by commodity. Out of 140 Hong Kong importing industries and 104 exporting industries considered, we find short-run effects in the majority of the industries. The short-run effects translated into the long run in 81 of Hong Kong import industries and 51 of her export industries, a finding that contradicts previous research.     

关于香港联系汇率制度可持续性的研究

本文首先比较了阿根廷与香港的汇率机制，它们虽然在形式上接近，但是两者有许多根本的不同。香港的联系汇率制度有来自中国内地在各个方面的强有力的支持。这种支持在其他采取货币局制度的国家里几乎看不到。这就是中国香港联系汇率制度的特点。由于货币局的弊端显现，使得越来越多的市场经济国家倾向于“美元化”。本文采取“协整检验”的办法，分析了将来港币“美元化”与“人民币化”的可能性。以是否存在协整关系作为判定尺度。虽然检验结果表明香港的一些经济变量与美国的有较强的协整关系，这是由于联系汇率制本身的缘故，但是出于政治、地理和其他要素的考虑，事实上港币美元化是行不通的；香港与中国内地的协整关系虽然较弱，但是将来港币人民币化的可能性还是存在的。     

Assimilation of Hong Kong Immigrants in Canada

A flood of emigration from Hong Kong to Canada was observed prior to the handover from Britain back to China in 1997. I pool Canadian Census data from 1991 to 2006 to study the labour market assimilation of Hong Kong immigrants. The findings suggest that these immigrants faced a significant negative wage gap upon entry in comparison with Canadian‐born individuals, and this was larger for cohorts arriving closer to 1997, suggesting a decline in cohort quality. The results also indicate that earnings convergence with the Canadian‐born was slow for the majority of these immigrants.     

香港与内地金融合作的现状与展望

改革开放以来，香港与内地的金融关系日益紧密，金融领域的合作日益加深，中国加入WTO既为两地金融合作提供了重要的发展机遇也为之带来了一些挑战，而进一步促进内地与香港的金融合作，是提高我国整体综合国力和保持香港国际金融中心地位的必要选择。合作的现状1.金融机构的合作内地与香港金融机构的合作主要着眼于优势互补。香港与中国内地和亚洲地区经济联系密切，法律体系和监管制度健全，境外资金可以自由进出，加之处于欧洲和北美时差中心，信息通信发达，金融服务发展迅速。随着中国金融改革的深化和加入WTO，内地的商业银行体系…     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong

The paper presents evidence on whether Hong Kong’s currency board arrangement, in place since 1983, has affected the volatility of real macroeconomic variables. Simple evidence on the relative volatilities of relevant macroeconomic variables before and after 1983 is presented, before a more formal econometric framework is utilized to examine the linkages between the exchange rate and the real economy. It is found that the currency board period has been one of relative stability in Hong Kong, though it has also been a period where external factors have been relatively benign. Even after controlling for the external environment, it is found that the currency board period is one of low macroeconomic volatility.     

An enhanced implied tree model for option pricing: A study on Hong Kong property stock options

This paper empirically tests the practicability of the implied tree models on pricing the major HK real estate stock options and Hang Seng Index (HSI) Options, as an attempt to deal with the problem haunting the Black–Scholes Model in “volatility smiles”. Further, an iterative search procedure is originated to incorporate the idea of node-dependent interest rates to the implied binomial tree model. The results would then be compared with the original Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979) [Cox, J., Ross, S. and Rubinstein, M. (1979), Option pricing: A simplified approach, Journal of Financial Economics, vol.7, no.3 (September), 229–264] tree models (CRR) in order to assess its performance, through an out-of-sample fitness test. The findings illustrate that the implied binomial trees, with node-dependent interest rates, provide a closer estimate of option prices than the original CRR tree models, when options are frequently traded in the market. Encouraging results are obtained from the in-sample fitness test on the implied trees to simulate the spot evolution of HSI options within a short period of time. However, the original CRR tree models outperform the implied tree models on either inactively traded property stock options, or options with distant time-to-maturity. Misrepresentation of future local volatilities, implied by the prices, and data constraints are likely the reasons hindering the development of the implied tree models.     

发展现代物流促进两地合作

近年来，现代物流业以及相关产业模式的发展成为经济增长的重要推动力量。进入80年代以来，随着经济全球化持续发展、科学技术水平不断提高以及专业化分工进一步深化，现代物流业这种新兴业态得到长足的进步。推动现代物流业发展的主要背景是：在微观层面，企业以提高核心竞争力为目标，以供应链管理为主要实现手段，通过提高即时生产（JustInTime）的响应速度，通过降低库存以降低成本和减少风险，获取市场竞争优势。在这种趋势推动下，一方面，从企业内部管理角度来看，提高供应链效率成为企业管理的核心目标；另一方面，“外包生产(Out…     

粤港农产品物流合作研究

粤港两地唇齿相依,经济互补性强,农产品物流合作具有良好的基础和深远的意义,必将大大促进两地的物流融合与经济的繁荣发展.本文针对目前粤港农产品物流合作存在的问题,提出了相应的对策建议.     

Incentive Effects of Rate-of-Return Regulation in Hong Kong

A recent paper published by this journal (Peles and Whittred 1996) discussed the regulatory arrangement of the Scheme of Control in Hong Kong. Instead of encouraging electric utilities to finance their assets proportionately more by equity as argued by the authors, the Scheme has in fact given them an incentive to rely on debt financing. A major incentive aspect of the Scheme lies in the formation of a development fund for making internal transfers. This development fund arrangement has provided an incentive for the two electric utilities to improve efficiency and has facilitated the expansion of the electric power industry.