Individual financial risk tolerance and the global financial crisis

We investigate individual investors’ tolerance towards financial risk by focusing on changes associated with the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009. Financial risk tolerance (FRT) is analysed longitudinally controlling for demographic, socio‐economic and regional variations. In absolute terms, the change in FRT is small and contrasts with a popular view that risk tolerance is an elastic psychological state overly influenced by the pervading market conditions. Even in the presence of significant financial events, FRT tends to be a reasonably stable attribute in the shorter term but possibly influenced and reshaped by events more gradually over time.     

Fifty‐year overview of judgment and decision‐making research in accounting

As part of the celebration of the fiftieth anniversary of AFAANZ, we consider the breadth of judgment and decision‐making (JDM) experimental research in accounting over that 50‐year period. Our review is divided by decade and between auditing, financial accounting and management accounting. In four major journals, we found 5745 papers between 1970 and 2009, which we consider impressive and strong support for the opportunity to publish in this field. Our aim is to encourage more JDM research from Australians and New Zealanders, and to allow researchers in particular specialisations to get a better understanding of the JDM research in other specialisations.     

Interactive data and retail investor decision‐making: an experimental study

The results of an experimental study of retail investors' use of eXtensible Business Reporting Language tagged (interactive) data and PDF format for making investment decisions are reported. The main finding is that data format made no difference to participants' ability to locate and integrate information from statement footnotes to improve investment decisions. Interactive data were perceived by participants as quick and ‘accurate’, but it failed to facilitate the identification of the adjustment needed to make the ratios accurate for comparison. An important implication is that regulators and software designers should work to reduce user reliance on the comparability of ratios generated automatically using interactive data.     

Psychological determinants of financial buffer saving: the influence of financial risk tolerance and regulatory focus

With governments redistributing more responsibilities unto citizens, individuals have an increasing need for financial resources acting as a buffer against life’s setbacks and unexpected expenditures. The purpose of this study was to examine psychological determinants of saving for a financial buffer, for which a theoretical model was formulated based on the theory of planned behaviour with three new, domain-specific psychological constructs: financial risk tolerance, regulatory focus and perceived saving barriers. Data were collected with an online questionnaire that utilised convenience and snowball sampling to target both students and working individuals (N = 272). Regression analyses offered support for the proposed model, showing that participants’ financial risk tolerance (i.e. an individual’s attitude towards financial risk taking) was significantly associated with their subjective financial knowledge and regulatory focus. Furthermore, perceived financial self-efficacy and financial risk tolerance both predicted participants’ intention to save for a financial buffer. In turn, perceived financial self-efficacy and saving intention predicted self-reported saving behaviour. Importantly, perceived saving barriers mediated the relationship between saving intention and self-reported saving behaviour. In line with the proposed model, results also showed that a specific attitude-based construct (financial risk tolerance) is a considerably better predictor of saving intention than general measures of attitude towards saving. This study is also the first to demonstrate that regulatory focus influences financial risk tolerance. Implications of these findings for stimulating saving behaviour are discussed.     

The impact of personality traits on attitude to financial risk

While the effects of emotions on attitudes to investment risk are now well documented, the influence of personality factors has been less researched. This paper examines the role of personality traits in determining financial risk tolerance. Using an extensive survey of UK-based retail investors, we show that personality traits and characteristics are more important than emotions in determining attitude to risk. We also observe that the widely adopted ‘Big Five’ framework is insufficient to characterise this relationship adequately, with significant roles for financial self-efficacy, resilience, and trait anger. Since some of these characteristics can be modified, our findings are suggestive that appropriate training and support for those making financial decisions could lead to better outcomes over the longer term.     

Discovering bank risk factors from financial statements based on a new semi‐supervised text mining algorithm

This paper aims to comprehensively uncover bank risk factors from qualitative textual risk disclosures reported in financial statements, which contain a huge amount of information on bank risks. We propose a new semi‐supervised text mining approach named naive collision algorithm to analyse the textual risk disclosures, which can more accurately identify bank risk factors compared with the typical unsupervised text mining approach. We identified 21 bank risk factors in total, which is far more than identified in previous studies. We further analyse the importance of each bank risk factor and how the importance of each risk factor changes over time.     

The impact of undergraduate personal finance education on individual financial literacy,attitudes and intentions

Financial literacy education features prominently among the policy options available to improve personal financial decision‐making. Notwithstanding calls to expand delivery of financial literacy units at university level, such offerings are relatively rare with little evaluation. We provide an evaluation of the impact on financial literacy, financial attitudes and financial behaviour intentions of a semester unit in personal finance delivered to undergraduates at an Australian university, carefully controlling for confounding effects in the analysis. We report increases in objective and subjective financial literacy and an additional gender effect. Contrary to previous speculation, we do not find overconfidence as an associated outcome.     

The dispositif of risk management: Reconstructing risk management after the financial crisis

Despite its dubious role during the global financial crisis of 2008, risk management has continued its expansion. This paper addresses the question why risk management, in the face of its evident failure to manage risks during the crisis, has retained its importance even today. We build on the existing critical literature on risk management (Power, 2007) and advance it by introducing a more rigorous consideration of power. We refer to the notion of the “permanent state of exception” as conceptualized by the Italian social theorist Giorgio Agamben, 1998, Agamben, 2005 in order to argue that risk is a powerful social category as it reflects a potential exception, challenging norms as well as normalizing forms of control. We conclude that a dispositif of risk management, an assemblage of institutions, regulations and models, lies at the heart of risk management. This dispositif provides elites engaged in risk management with an argument that allows them – in exceptional situations – to take extraordinary measures which cannot be rescinded after the initial state of exception has ended. The logic of the state of exception can be used as a discursive resource and adds to, but also gradually replaces, other forms of management control. Our study contributes to management control theory by focusing on post-disciplinary forms of control and provides a novel focus on how elites use management control systems for their own interests.     

Overconfidence,risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals

This paper highlights the role played by overconfidence and risk perception in the risk-taking behaviors of finance professionals. We interviewed 64 high-level professionals and demonstrate that they are overconfident in both the general and the financial domains. Using a recent measure proposed by Glaser et al. (2013), we indicate that respondents are overconfident in forecasting future stock prices. We demonstrate that the risk they are willing to assume is positively influenced by overconfidence and optimism and negatively influenced by risk perception. However, the stock return volatility anticipated is, in most cases, an insignificant determinant of the risk that professionals are ready to assume.     

The influence of international taxation structures on corporate financial disclosure patterns

This paper investigates the extent of financial instrument disclosures (FIDs) within the annual reports of Australian listed extractive resource companies over a 4-year longitudinal period (2003–2006) and its association with international tax characteristics. Statistical analysis shows that thin capitalisation structures and withholding taxes are positively and significantly associated with disclosure patterns. In contrast, the occurrence of foreign sourced income and tax haven links are significantly negatively associated with FID patterns. These findings demonstrate that international tax structures can influence corporate disclosure patterns. This paper contributes to an understanding of the extent, trends and rationale behind resource firms’ financial instrument disclosure practices in Australia.     

The impact of anti-corruption measures and risk effects on equity incentives and financial misreporting in China

This study examines the effects of anti-corruption and equity incentive risk on financial misreporting in the context of China’s unique corporate ownership structure and governance regime. Using a sample comprising 2,708 cases of financial restatement over the 2007–2017 period. Our key findings suggest that managers’ shareholdings are significantly and positively associated with their firms’ financial misreporting, and certain equity risk factors dramatically alter Chinese corporate governance. Furthermore, managers’ motivation to misreport is significantly more pronounced in non–state owned enterprises (non-SOEs), suggesting that equity incentive risk effects mitigate the “absence of ownership” problem believed to affect SOEs. Managers in highly competitive industries and firms with low institutional ownership are found to be highly motivated to misreport performance.     

Expert relevance and the use of context-driven heuristic processes in risk perception

The effectiveness of a medical treatment should not predict its risk (highly effective treatments can be either safe or risky), however, people’s use of heuristic shortcuts may lead them to judge a link between effectiveness and risk, typically a negative correlation. A particular concern is that experts might use such a strategy and that this is unlikely to provide an accurate judgement. This large-scale field-based experiment compares expert-relevant and non-expert-relevant contexts, for both expert and public judgements of risk and effectiveness in the context of blood transfusion medicine. Postal questionnaires were distributed to anaesthetists (experts, N?=?123) and a general public (non-expert) comparison group (N?=?1153); half of the participants were cued with accompanying general information about genetically-modified (GM) biotechnology and half received specific information about blood product technologies. The blood-focussed information served to emphasise the medical relevance of the questionnaire to the expert group. Regression analyses showed that generally perceived effectiveness predicted perceived risk for both experts and non-experts, which suggests heuristic processing. However, although experts appeared to engage in heuristic processing for risk perceptions in certain circumstances, this processing is strongly affected by context. Experts who received the medically relevant context rated perceptions of effectiveness independently of perceptions of risk, unlike those who received the GM context. This indicates a reduced reliance on a low-effort heuristic for experts given an expertise-relevant context. The results are considered in light of dual-process (rational-associative) accounts of reasoning.     

The impact of the financial system’s structure on firms’ financial constraints

We estimate firms’ cash flow sensitivity of cash to empirically test how the financial system’s structure and level of development influence their financial constraints. For this purpose we merge Almeida et al.’s work, a path-breaking design for evaluating a firm’s financial constraints, with that of Levine, who paved the way for comparative analysis of financial systems around the world. We conjecture that a country’s financial system, both in terms of its structure and its level of development, should influence the cash flow sensitivity of cash of constrained firms but leave unconstrained firms unaffected. We test our hypothesis with a large international sample of 30,000 firm-years from 1989 to 2006. Our findings reveal that both the structure of the financial system and its level of development matter. Bank-based financial systems provide constrained firms with easier access to external financing.     

The stocks at stake: Return and risk in socially responsible investment

We relate US portfolio returns, book-to-market values and excess stock returns to different dimensions of socially responsible performance. We find that socially responsible investing (SRI) impacts on stock returns by lowering the book-to-market ratio and not by generating positive alphas. Our result is consistent with the theoretical work suggesting that SRI is reflected in demand differences between SRI and non-SRI stock. It also explains why so few studies are able to establish a link between alpha’s and SRI.     

The influence of managerial incentives on the resolution of financial distress

This study investigates the influence of managerial incentives on the resolution of financial distress. Our model predicts that when creditors and equityholders prefer different resolution methods, the likelihood of choosing Chapter 11 over private renegotiation is related to the ownership structure of the distressed firm. Empirical test results using a sample of 81 voluntary Chapter 11 firms and 65 private workout firms support the model’s prediction. We show that managerial ownership is positively related to the incidence of Chapter 11 filing when there is conflict between equityholders and creditors over the choice between Chapter 11 and a private renegotiation. Consistent with prior literature, we also find that the choice of resolution methods depends on the extent of creditor holdout problems and the level of economic distress. We also performed the analysis of a subsequent 5 years of post-distress performance for all sample firms. The majorities of firms that file for Chapter 11 lose their independence and are either acquired or liquidated. However, more than half of firms in private workouts survived as independent firms.

Interaction of individual framing and political orientation in guiding climate change risk perception

There is a general agreement that climate change is a potential hazard threatening the global village. An appropriate level of risk perception should be a critical issue in coping with the global environmental risk. We examined the determinants of the level of climate change risk perception. In particular, we examined if individual framing of climate change interacts with political orientation in guiding climate change risk perception. The main effect of the two factors was also investigated. A nationwide online survey (N = 592) was conducted in South Korea by a professional survey agent. When self-efficacy, trust, and other demographics were controlled for, multiple regression analyses revealed that those focusing on what is happening (diagnostic framing) rather than what-to-do (prognostic framing) had higher risk perception. More importantly, only conservatives showed significantly different levels of risk perception according to their framing of the issue. Conservatives inclined to diagnostic framing showed higher risk perception than conservatives favoring prognostic framing. This difference disappeared when it comes to South Korean liberals, indicating an interaction between individual framing and political orientation. The significance of investigating individual framing, not media framing, and their interaction with political orientation are discussed.     

The influence of auditor narcissism and moral disengagement on risk assessments of a narcissistic client CFO

Global capital markets rely heavily on independent and skeptical auditors as gatekeepers to provide assurance that corporate financial reports are free of material fraud. The rise of narcissism among the ranks of both client and audit professionals challenge this gatekeeper function. In addition, auditor moral disengagement may undermine auditor skepticism, further eroding public confidence in the integrity of financial reporting and the audit process. We conduct a quasi-experiment with 118 auditors from three international audit firms. In a simulated interview with a client CFO, we examine whether auditors underestimate risks of fraudulent financial statements due to the interactive effects of (1) client narcissism (manipulated verbally and nonverbally) and (2) auditor narcissism. We also examine the influence of auditor moral disengagement on client risk assessments. Results indicate that CFO verbal and nonverbal narcissism significantly influenced auditors’ assessment of management-related client risk. Moreover, auditor narcissism was found to interactively influence client risk inferences such that auditors higher in narcissism exhibited narcissistic tolerance (lower risk assessments) when the hypothetical CFO displayed high verbal narcissism. Auditor moral disengagement was negatively associated with client risk assessments. We discuss the implication of these findings on future audit judgment research, audit firm policy and training on maintaining auditor skepticism, and the audit oversight role of standard-setters.     

The influence of linear and cyclical temporal representations on risk perception of nuclear waste: an experimental study

Time is an important aspect of the issue of nuclear waste, both from a technical and from a perceptional perspective. Previous studies have investigated the relationship between time and risk perception of nuclear waste, applying the discounting paradigm and therefore limiting time to one very narrow aspect: its duration. However, time is a multifaceted concept and encompasses more than a linear property. The aim of our study is to test the influence of a different aspect of time, namely temporal representations (linear or cyclical) on risk perception of nuclear waste. In an experimental study we demonstrate that both linear and cyclical representations have a reducing effect on risk perception compared to the control condition, where no specific time representation was activated. Examining group differences, we also demonstrate that temporal representations have a differing influence depending on whether participants have a stable belief about nuclear waste or whether they belong to an ambivalent group that does not yet hold a stable belief. Furthermore, we replicate the well-documented gender gap in risk perception. Our results bear potentially interesting implications for risk communication by demonstrating a causal relationship between the graphic representation of time and risk perception of nuclear waste.     

The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises

The inability to see and quantify systemic financial risk comes at an immense social cost. Systemic risk in the financial system arises to a large extent as a consequence of the interconnectedness of its institutions, which are linked through networks of different types of financial contracts, such as credit, derivatives, foreign exchange, and securities. The interplay of the various exposure networks can be represented as layers in a financial multi-layer network. In this work we quantify the daily contributions to systemic risk from four layers of the Mexican banking system from 2007 to 2013. We show that focusing on a single layer underestimates the total systemic risk by up to 90%. By assigning systemic risk levels to individual banks we study the systemic risk profile of the Mexican banking system on all market layers. This profile can be used to quantify systemic risk on a national level in terms of nation-wide expected systemic losses. We show that market-based systemic risk indicators systematically underestimate expected systemic losses. We find that expected systemic losses are up to a factor of four higher now than before the financial crisis of 2007–2008. We find that systemic risk contributions of individual transactions can be up to a factor of one thousand higher than the corresponding credit risk, which creates huge risks for the public. We find an intriguing non-linear effect whereby the sum of systemic risk of all layers underestimates the total risk. The method presented here is the first objective data-driven quantification of systemic risk on national scales that reveal its true levels.