Do section 404 disclosures affect investors' perceptions of information systems reliability and stock price predictions?

This paper examines the impact of Sarbanes–Oxley Act (2002) Section 404 disclosures regarding internal controls over financial reporting on investors' information systems (IS) reliability assessments and stock price predictions. Prior research shows that Section 404 disclosures signal differences in the quality of company financial information. However, research on how Section 404 disclosures impact financial markets shows mixed results. In order for Section 404 information to affect stock prices, users must access that information, assess its implications, and incorporate those implications into their decision processes. We investigate the stages of this process through an experiment using a 10-K filing adapted from an actual company, utilizing process-tracing software to record information access. Two versions of the case were used to manipulate the type of Section 404 opinion, noting effective or ineffective control systems. Results show that professional investors are more likely to access Section 404 information than nonprofessionals. Also, our findings imply that professional investors have a lower baseline expectation of reliability that increases on learning of effective controls, while nonprofessionals have a higher baseline expectation of reliability that declines on learning of ineffective controls. While IS reliability is positively associated with nonprofessionals' stock price predictions, there is no such association for professionals. These findings help explain the mixed results in past archival studies. Prior results on market response to Section 404 information may be due in part to failure to access Section 404 reports, and to the low weighting placed on IS reliability by financial professionals.     

Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

A comparison of the stock market reactions of convertible bond offerings between financial and non-financial institutions: Do they differ?

We focus on the stock price reaction to convertible bond offering made by financial institutions and find that the cumulative abnormal return over the three day interval around convertible bond issuance is 1.41 percentage higher than that for non-financial institutions. This result supports our hypothesis that since financials are heavily regulated, the market is less likely to assume that the issuance of convertible bond by financials signals information that are overvalued. Our results remain robust after controlling for a number of firm-, issue-, and market-specific characteristics as well as the level of short selling pressure induced by convertible bond arbitrageurs.     

Spillover of stock price crash risk: Do environmental,social and governance (ESG) matter?

This study measures the static and dynamic crash risk connections across ESG networks from 2015 to 2020, using the generalized vector autoregressive framework. In particular, it highlights the mixed results of the crash risk connections across ESG three pillars and the different spillover performance when firms with different ownership structures and qualification of margin-trading and short-selling. Our results reveal that stocks with higher ESG ratings display more negative net spillover effects, which is consistent with the ideas that stock groups with good ESG performance experience lower crash risk, and thus transmitting smaller crash risk to other ESG levels. Among the three ESG pillars, good social performance (S) significantly lowers the total crash risk connections. In contrast, firms with well environment performance (E) do not transmit lower crash risk. Moreover, SOEs and firms with qualification of margin-trading and short-selling have lower total crash risk connections among ESG ratings. Using propensity score matching to match companies with high ESG and low ESG quarterly, we find the results are still robust. When dividing the sample according to the outbreak of COVID-19, we find the crash risk connections across ESG networks are stronger during crisis.     

Do bears and bulls swim across oceans? Market information transmission between greater China and the rest of the world

This study investigates returns and volatilities transmission across Greater China’s four emerging stock markets and three developed international markets, Tokyo, London, and New York. Using daily open and close price data from 1994 to 2001, we provide empirical evidence that the overnight returns on all the Greater China stock indices can be estimated by using information from at least one of the three developed markets’ daytime returns. The contemporaneous return spillovers are in general unidirectional from more advanced major international markets to the Chinese markets. However, split-sample analysis suggests that there is also evidence of bi-directional return spillovers after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We also find that there are no one-period lagged return spillover effects from the three advanced markets to the Chinese markets, except for Taiwan. Finally, Mainland China’s two stock markets are not affected by contemporaneous nor delayed “bad news”.     

Do changes in the SG&A ratio provide different information about changes in future earnings,analyst forecast revisions,and stock returns under different circumstances?

In fundamental analysis, increases (decreases) in the ratio of selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs to sales (SG&A ratio) are perceived as negative (positive) signals regarding future firm performance. However, this interpretation focuses on the overall change in the SG&A ratio and ignores the underlying changes in the components of the ratio (sales and SG&A costs). Although prior research examines the changes in the SG&A ratio under some different circumstances, there is no study that examines all the ways that managers adjust costs in reaction to changes in sales. Therefore, I create six subsamples representing all possible combinations of changes in sales, SG&A costs, and the SG&A ratio and test whether changes in the SG&A ratio are informative about future earnings, analyst forecast revisions, and stock returns under these different circumstances. I find that changes in the SG&A ratio in four of my six subsamples provide information about changes in future earnings. I also find that analysts do not impound all of the information contained in the signals into their forecast revisions and in some cases investors appear to understand this fact.     

Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach

We studied the relationship between Islamic bond (sukuk) prices and financial and policy uncertainty conditions using a quantile regression approach. Our empirical results for the period 2010–2014 show that US bond prices had a negative impact and causality effects on sukuk prices, whereas European Monetary Union bond prices only co-moved with sukuk prices. We also show that financial uncertainty had a negative effect that was limited to intermediate sukuk quantiles; moreover, sukuk prices were not affected by economic policy uncertainty or stock market returns. Therefore, although Islamic bonds are distinctive assets, their price dynamics are dependent on other bond-related asset prices and so incorporate financial market uncertainty.     

Do environmental variables affect the performance and technical efficiency of the European banking systems? A parametric analysis using the stochastic frontier approach

The paper compares the efficiency of the European banking systems in view of the constitution of the European Monetary Union. Since competition among banks will increase, it is important to identify the most efficient banking system able to play a role in that market. A parametric approach is adopted, based on the estimation of a stochastic cost frontier. This methodology enables one to measure X-inefficiency and to model it as a function of environmental variables which may influence firms' efficiency. By means of this analysis it is possible to identify the most efficient banking systems and to focus on the determinants of deviations from cost minimizing. The analysis highlights significant efficiency gaps among the performances of banks in different countries and of different institutional types. In particular, it is found that the Mittel-European model is the one that operates closest to the efficient frontier. This may indicate that, compared with separated banks, the universal banking system allows for production plans which come closer to the optimal frontier. The analysis suggests that, at the beginning of European Monetary Union, national barriers and regulatory frameworks are still responsible for deviation from the efficient frontiers.     

Genetically modified organisms and the age of (Un) reason? A critical examination of the rhetoric in the GMO public policy debates in Ghana

Using narrative policy analysis we examined the adversarial rhetoric of claims-makers in their bid to undermine alternative and conflicting accounts of GMOs as environmental and human health risk and to forestall any challenges to the scientific authority of the technological deterministic account of the GMO policy debates in Ghana. The study shows that the GMO discourse was built with the rhetorical frames of smallholder farmer vulnerability and entitlement used in the account it contradicts, thereby legitimating its own appeal for responsive remedies. Civil society claims attacked GMOs as discriminatory and as an environmental and human health risk. Government and scientists engaged in unsympathetic counter rhetorical strategies in hopes of debunking or neutralizing the claim made by civil society. In other words, Government and scientists were denying the claim that GMO was discriminatory and posed significant human health risk, as well as the call to action to do something about GMOs. Civil society adapted the counter rhetoric of insincerity, claiming that scientists had some kind of “hidden agenda” behind their claim, such as eagerness to just earn money from their patents on GMOs. It is imperative that communication on GMOs includes the underlying assumptions, the uncertainties and the probabilities associated with both best and worst case scenarios. This is a necessary condition to minimise misinformation on GMOs but may be insufficient to completely erase conspiracy theories from the minds of the public especially when scientists and government are perceived to be biased towards multinational corporations that are ostensibly preoccupied with making profits.