A CROSS-SECTION AND TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF CANADIAN EGG DEMAND

This paper presents information on some of the characteristics of demand for eggs in Canada using cross section and time series approaches. Data from the 1969 Expenditure Survey are analyzed by cross-section to establish responsiveness of egg consumption to income, family structure, and an implicit price index used to designate different quality levels purchased. Monthly producer prices are used to establish estimates of price flexibility, seasonal, U.S. price, breaker market and inventory effects, and a computed index is used to indicate the effect of changes in quality distribution on price. In addition, a model is formulated from the reinforcement theory of habit formation to lest for the existence of inertia! or habitual behavior in egg purchases. The relevance of the results to market regulation is illustrated as well as their application in price forecasting. Cette étude donne des informations sur quelques-uns des charactéristiques de la demande des oeufs au Canada, ce en utilisant des séries chronalogiques el des coupes transversales (cross-section). Les données provenam de ?Etude de la Consommation datum de 1969 soul analysers par coupes transversales (cross-section) afin de déterminer ?effet sur la consommation des oeufs des revenus, des structures familiales ainsi que ?indice des prix implicite servant à désigner ?acquisition des differents niveaux de qualite. Les prix mensuels au producteur sont utilisés afin ?estimer la flexibilité des prix, saisonniers, les prix aux Etats-Unis. les effets du Marché rentable (breaker market) et résultats invemtaires, el un inclice calculé est utilisé pour démontrer ?effet des changements de la distribution des différentes qualités sur les prix. De plus, un modèle est construit à partir de la théorie de renforcemenl des habitules ?achat afin de vérifier ?existence ?un comportement inertial ou habitue! des acheleurs ?oeufs. La pertinence des résultats sur les règlements du Marché est illustré ainsi que leurs applications dans la prévision des prix.     

A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF US EXPORT WHEAT PRICING AND MARKET SHARES

The economics of a higher loan rate to support US wheat prices is analysed. Utilising optimal control theory, a dynamic wheat trade model is developed. The basic premise underlying the model is that the United States finds itself having transient monopoly power in the wheat market. An expression for the optimal pricing policy which maximises the present value of expected profits over the indefinite future is derived. Results from both the theoretical and empirical models demonstrate that the US wheat pricing strategy depends on its costs relative to competitors' costs, the discount rate and the competitors' response function. The main policy implication of the analysis is for the dominant wheat exporting country constantly to seek to lower costs relative to competitors and to maintain a price exceeding unit cost without encouraging competitors' expansion.     

MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS APPLIED TO CANADIAN WHEAT EXPORTS

This paper proposes a framework for market share analysis that provides for a distribution effect in addition to a competitive effect on a supplier's total sales of a commodity. The framework is applied to the change in Canadian wheat exports from 1963-64 to 1967-68. It is estimated that 3/5 of the reduction in export volume is attributable to the distribution effect, 1/5 to the competitive effect, and 1/5 to a smaller size of wheat market. The findings caution that scope may be limited for major improvements in Canadian wheat export policy. The paper concludes with an appraisal of the analytical technique and with proposals for its extension in further investigation.
Cet article expose les grandes lignes ďune méthode ďanalyse des parts de marché, faisant entrer en ligne de compte les effets de distribution et de compétition sur la rente ďun certain produit par un exporteur. La méthode est utilisee pour évaluer le changement des exportations cana-diennes de blé, pour la période allant de 1963-64 à 1967-68. ďapres les estimations, on peut attribuer 3/5 de la réduction àľeffet de distribution, 1/5 à la compétition tandis que 1/5 est attribuable a la réduction du marché global du blé. Les résultats suggérent done une certaine prudence dans ľélaboration de nouvelles politiques ayant trait àľexportation de blé canadien. ľauteur termine par une évaluation de la méthode analytique, et fait quelques suggestions relatives à son usage pour des recherches futures.     

MALLEE WHEAT FARMERS' DEMAND FOR CROP AND RAINFALL INSURANCE

Producers' demand for a crop insurance program with indemnities based on their actual yields and a rainfall insurance program with indemnities based on area rainfall is analysed. Actuarial costs of these hypothetical programs are estimated. Tobit procedures are used to analyse factors influencing the amount which farmers would be willing to pay for the alternative insurance programs. Factors related to the absolute size of risk and capacity to bear risk, as well as personal characteristics and risk attitudes of producers, have effects on the demand for insurance as hypothesised. Problems of adverse selection are associated with the area yield-based program, while both crop and rainfall insurance programs may involve some moral hazard. Producer participation in either program would be limited.     

THE DEMAND FOR CANADIAN SEAWEEDS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO IRISH MOSS*

The acquisition of a new industry has been the major goal of many rural areas, especially in the Maritimes region of Canada. Faced not only with a marginal possibility of increasing their catch but also with the likelihood of a decline in the catch in many species of fish, the emergence of a seaweed industry, notwithstanding its occurrence in specified areas, provides a welcome feature for some fishermen and farmers. This additional or alternative source of income provides a stability hitherto not experienced in the areas. This article assesses the demand for Canadian seaweeds via a demand model and appraises the policy implications emanating from the forecasts of the model. The conclusions suggest that the almost non-existent management at the resource level (season limits in terms of months harvested are in effect) and the concomitant problems linked to a common property resource could give rise to difficulties for continued growth and the attainment of maximum returns which may be averted. La création ?une nouvelle Industrie est ce que recherchent depuis longtemps de nombreuses régions rurales, particulierement dans la region canadienne des Mart-limes. Enlrevoyant qui! leur est fort peu possible ?accroitre leurs prises et qu'il leur faut plutot envisager une diminution des prises dans le cas de nombreuses espèces de poisson, nombre de pécheurs et cultivateurs vient ?un bon oeil ?apparition ?une induslrie des algues marines, méme si ces dernières ne sont récollees que dans des secteurs particuliers. Ce supplément de revenu ou autre source de revenu offre une chance de stabiliser qu'on n'avait jamais connue dans les secteurs en cause. Dans le prèsent article, ?auteur èvalue à?aide ?un modèle la demande ?algues marines du Canada et ètudie ce qu'implique sur le plan des positions à adopter les réponses obtenues du modèle. Ces réponses incitenl à croire que la quasi-absence de gestion au niveau de la ressource (la saison des récoltes est réglemente) et les problémes de ?exploitation ?une ressource commune, pourraient provoquer sur le plan de ?expansion continue et de la realisation de réndements maximum des difficultes qui! serait possible ?éviler.     

CANADIAN WHEAT ACREAGE RESPONSE*

In spite of the criticisms which have been levied against statistical estimation of supply response, it is used in this study to determine the factors causing yearly fluctuations in Canadian wheat acreage. The estimates are derived from 1947–1966 time series data. In formulating price expectations, both the traditional and distributed lag models are used.
It was found that wheat acreage response is not a random process. From a statistical standpoint, wheat and flax prices, wheat stocks on farms, and export sales did affect farmers' wheat acreage decisions. Among the elasticities computed, those for wheat prices were the largest but generally less than one. Barley prices, rainfall prior to seeding, and cattle prices were also considered but did not appear to have a serious influence on wheat acreage.     

DEMAND FOR FOOD IN GREECE: AN ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM ANALYSIS

This paper provides an analysis of food demand in Greece using the Almost Ideal Demand System and annual food expenditure data for the period 1950–1986. The focus is on the estimation of a complete matrix of price and income elasticities for the various food commodity groups for Greece. The empirical analysis points to the dominant position that meat and other livestock products have acquired in the diet of Greek consumers during a period of high income growth and rising living standards. Further increase in meat and milk demand is expected to take place as long as incomes keep rising.     

CANADIAN WHEAT EXPORTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET: AN EXPLORATORY ECONOMETRIC AND POLICY ANALYSIS

This study attempts to measure with a two-region model some of the key economic relationships for Canadian wheat in the world market. The excess demand function facing Canadian wheat exports was found to be price elastic. Dynamic policy multipliers were derived to calculate the effects on wheat exports and the world price of changes in policy instruments including the initial payment for wheat.
Cette étude a pour but de mesurer, au moyen d'un modèle portant sur deux régions, quelques-uns des principaux rapports économiques entre l'économie canadienne du blé et les marchés mondiaux. La fonction de demande excédentaire des exportations canadiennes de blé s'est vérifiée élastique par rapport au prix. Les effets de changements dans les instruments de la politique agricole, tels que le paiement initial du blé, sur les exportation canadiennes et sur le prix mondial du ble ont eté calcule au moyen de multiplicateurs dynamiques.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE CANADIAN EGG MARKET

This paper analyzes the market forces - demand, supply, price and trade - operative in the Canadian egg market. Quarterly data for the period 1961–1973 (inclusive) was employed, and Three-Stage least squares procedure was applied to a 12-equation model. Eggs were found to have a very small (–.003) coefficient of direct price elasticity and a negative (–.267) coefficient of income elasticity. At supply level, lagged egg-feed price ratio had an inelastic coefficient. The model was used to forecast for 1974, and was found satisfactory.
Cette étude analyse les forces qui influencent Ie marché des œufs - la demande, l'approvisionnement, les prix et le commerce - au Canada. Les données trimestrielles couvrant la période de 1961 à 1973 (inclusif) fûrent basées sur le système du moindre carré en trois stages sur un modèle à 12 équations. II fut trouvé que les œufs donnent us très petit coefficient (– .003) d'élasticité de prix directe, ainsi qu'un coefficient négatif (–.267) d'élasticité de revenu. Au niveau d'approvisionnement, la proportion ceuf-nourriture retarded avait aussi un coefficient inelastique. Le modéle fut 'employ' pour les predictions de 1974, et fut trouvé satisfaisant.     

今后几个月我国玉米的出口形势

2004年上半年,由于我国大幅减少玉米出口数量,使得国际市场供需格局突然变化,玉米供给一度紧张,期货基金借机大幅拉高玉米价格,国际市场玉米价格于是在大幅冲高后出现大幅回落走势。8月份之后,国际市场玉米供需形势将发生怎样的变化,国际玉米价格是否已经触底,中国玉米出口配额发放将对市场产生怎样的影响,笔者谈一点看法,仅供参考。一、国际市场玉米价格处于相对低位7月5日芝加哥期货玉米品种最近交割月结算价100.29美元/吨,7月29日为85.83美元/吨,下跌了14.46美元/吨;7月5日美国墨西哥湾8月船期3号黄玉米FOB价111.41美元/吨,7月29日101.…     

FROM CONSUMER CHOICE PROCESS TO AGGREGATE ANALYSIS: MARKETING INSIGHTS FOR MODELS OF MEAT DEMAND

The presence or absence of structural change in meat demand is critical to marketing decision making. If change is present, marketing bodies need to know what underlies the change so that the most appropriate response can be identified. Marketing theory is considered as a possible source of more explicit models of demand which may lead to a better understanding of consumption patterns and structural change.     

辽宁省水产品出口创汇现状与对策

辽宁渔业实施外向牵动战略，2002年水产品出口量和出口总额分别比上年增长23.1％和26.3％。本文还从调整产业结构、加大出口力度、发挥自身优势、提高境外创汇能力、发展多元化外贸主体和建立产品质量安全体系，提出了对策与建议。