人民币汇率购买力平价的界限检验

本文采用界限检验(bounds test)方法对人民币汇率购买力平价进行经验分析。与协整检验不同，界限检验具有直接检验变量间长期相关性的优点，而不管各相关变量是零阶单整、一阶单整还是混合形式，不必预先对相关变量进行单位根检验。通过对人民币兑德国马克、港币、日元和美元四种名义汇率的界限检验，本文的经验分析结果显示，1994年汇率制度改革以来人民币汇率购买力平价得到部分经验证据的支持。其中，人民币兑美元和人民币兑港币汇率的走势符合购买力平价理论，而人民币兑德国马克和人民币兑日元汇率不符合购买力平价理论。     

人民币汇率与主要非美元货币汇率的相关性分析——汇率形成机制改革以来的实证研究

本文对2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币汇率与主要非美元货币汇率进行了相关性分析.实证分析结果表明,人民币汇率与日元汇率呈中度或低度负相关,与港币汇率存在中度负相关,对欧元、英镑汇率则表现出高度正相关性.     

人民币汇率的统计分析与政策选择

2016年10月1日,IMF正式宣布人民币加入SDR(特别提款权).这意味着人民币将成为与美元、 欧元、 英镑和日元并列的第五种SDR篮子货币.这标志着中国在国际金融市场中日益凸显的重要性得到了国际认可,并进一步推动中国国内金融改革以及资本项目开放进程.自2014年3月17日起,银行间即期外汇市场人民币兑美元交易价浮动幅度由1％扩大至2％,这从侧面反映出:人民币汇率波动性在逐渐增大,发挥着更大的市场调节作用,汇率在中国宏观经济中扮演着越来越重要的角色.     

人民币实际有效汇率与我国贸易收支之间的互动关系——基于格兰杰因果关系的实证分析

本文选取1994‐2011年我国贸易收支月度数据以及美元兑人民币的实际有效汇率指数,首先对样本数据做平稳性检验以及协整分析,然后通过利用格兰杰因果关系来探究当前我国的人民币实际有效汇率与贸易收支之间是否存在确定的关系。研究结果表明人民币实际有效汇率不是影响我国贸易收支顺差的决定性因素,而贸易收支顺差却是导致人民币有实际效汇率升值的因素。     

分形市场中的汇率协整关系

本文将混沌与分形运用到汇率研究中,运用R/S方法研究了外汇收益率的长记忆性,并将传统的协整理论推广到广义的分数维协整,研究了时间序列之间的长期均衡关系,并以外汇市场中的欧元和新加坡元兑美元的汇率为例进行了实证分析,指出这两种货币收益率服从分形分布,具有相同的分整阶数且二者存在分数维协整关系。     

人民币均衡汇率的实证研究

选取1981‐2007年的年度数据,采用Edwards的均衡汇率模式,对人民币实际均衡汇率经济基本因素的时间序列之间的ADF检验,协整关系进行了实证检验。     

对人民币参考的一篮子货币的实证分析

2005年7月21日中国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。文章以瑞士法郎为基准货币,采用从1999年1月到2009年4月的名义汇率,以2005年7月为分界点,研究了人民币和美元、欧元、日元、英镑、韩圆、印度卢比、印度尼西亚盾、泰铢等八种货币之间的关系在中国汇率机制改革前后是否发生变化,并对人民币目前的货币篮子构成进行计算、解释和评价。     

人民币升值对地产行业影响的实证研究

基于证券市场数据,通过相关分析、协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法,研究了汇率制度改革后房地产指数与人民币汇率之间的关系。实证结果表明,人民币汇率与房地产指数存在着长期稳定的协整关系,汇率波动是房地产指数的长期以及短期Granger原因,人民币升值是房地产板块跑赢大盘的重要原因。     

世界主要货币波动现状给我们的启示

2005年7月21日,我国宣布启动人民币汇率形成机制改革,不再盯住单一美元,参照一篮子货币实行有管理的浮动汇率制度。从此,人民币汇率走上了波动之路。2008年7月21日,人民币汇率从8.2765元/美元升值到了6.8271元/美元,3年对美元升值21%以上。直到如今,人民币升值问题仍然备受关注和引人热议。一方面,西方发达国家纷纷要求人民币继续升值;另一方面,我们国家也感到了人民币升值带来的压力。面对这种情况,我们有必要加强对我国人民币汇率波动问题研究,如近期怎样看待和应对人民不升值问题;远期如何看待和应对人民币实现可自由兑换之后的汇率波动问题。本文从汇率波动的角度,通过对美元、欧元、日元和英镑的汇率波动实证分析,得出了一些相关看法和启示。     

人民币升值对房地产行业影响的实证研究

基于证券市场数据,通过相关分析、协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法,研究了汇率制度改革后房地产指数与人民币汇率之间的关系。实证结果表明,人民币汇率与房地产指数存在着长期稳定的协整关系,汇率波动是房地产指数的长期以及短期Granger原因,人民币升值是房地产板块跑赢大盘的重要原因。     

Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces

This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal component analysis generally improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Specifically, the dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement. Our models lead to multiple instances of statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy for daily EUR–USD, EUR–GBP, and EUR–JPY implied volatility surfaces across various maturities, when benchmarked against established methods. A stylised trading strategy is also employed to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of our proposed approach.     

Evidence of information transmission across currency futures markets using frequency domain tests

In this article, I examine the returns and volatility spillovers in the currency futures market incorporating the recently developed frequency domain tests. Such analysis allows differentiating between permanent (long-run) and transitory (short-run) linkages among the currency futures markets by investigating the causality dynamics at low and high frequencies respectively. I detect significant informational linkages between USD, EUR, GBP and JPY futures contracts in the Indian currency futures market. Evidence of innovations from USD futures market to other markets is the most significant for returns spillover and for volatility spillover, EUR is found to be the most significant compared to other currency futures contracts. The results would have implications for the market participants and policymakers.     

Recurrence plots analysis of the CNY exchange markets based on phase space reconstruction

The employment of autocorrelation-based transformation to study the dynamics of the exchange rate system is meaningful because it benefits for chaotic prediction on the basis that the transformation from an exchange rate sequence to its associated autocorrelation sequence is reversible. This paper examines the influence of autocorrelation-based transformation on the systemic dynamics using exchange rates of CNY against different currencies among USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, MYR and RUB. First, we construct recurrence plots of exchange rate return sequences and autocorrelation sequences with a fixed sliding window length of 20. The recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) shows that the exchange rate return sequences exhibit lower degrees of determinism than the autocorrelation sequences. Further, by analyzing the RQA measures with bootstrap techniques and box plots, we reveal that the RQA measures of the exchange rate return systems and the autocorrelation sequence systems are mostly significant, and the vertical structures of recurrence plots of autocorrelation sequences are more sensitive to the shuffles of bootstrap techniques. Finally, we investigate the evolution of RQA measures with the changes of sliding window lengths. The analysis shows that appropriately adjusting the sliding window length can increase the systemic determinism.     

Conditional value-at-risk forecasts of an optimal foreign currency portfolio

This study provides daily conditional value-at-risk (C-VaR) forecasts for a foreign currency portfolio comprising the USD/EUR, USD/JPY, and USD/BRL currencies. To do so, we estimate multivariate stochastic volatility models with time-varying conditional correlations using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Then, given the model-specific currency return density forecasts, we make the optimal portfolio choice by minimizing the C-VaR through numerical optimization. According to out-of-sample experiment, including emerging markets into the currency basket is essential for downside risk management, and considering model uncertainty as well as the parameter uncertainty can improve the portfolio performance.     

Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?

Establishing cointegration and long-run convergence between the official and the black market exchange rates is a way of testing foreign exchange market efficiency. Earlier research employed the Engle-Granger or Johansen method to test for cointegration between the two rates. Since either method requires each rate to be non-stationary, exchange rates that did not possess this property had to be excluded from analysis. However, with the introduction of the bounds testing approach to cointegration, no exchange rate needs to be excluded since this relatively new technique does not require pre-unit root testing. This paper employs monthly data from 27 developing countries and the bounds testing approach to cointegration by Pesaran et al. (2001) to show that in 22 out of 27 countries, not only are the two rates cointegrated but in all countries the black market exchange rate causes the official rate to adjust and converge toward the black market rate in the long run.     

人民币汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响分析

1994年人民币汇率并轨以来,我国对外贸易发展迅速。2005年进出口总值达14224.4亿美元,外贸依存度超过70%,进出口贸易的快速增长有力地促进了国民经济的发展。2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革初步确立了人民币长期升值趋势,人民币兑美元名义汇率至今已升值约3.3%。理论上,人民币升值将影响到我国进出口贸易的健康发展。本文基于克莱因模型,采用1999￣2005年季度数据,建立我国进口、出口的自回归双对数模型,深入分析人民币汇率变动对我国实际进出口的影响,以期为对外贸易政策的制定和宏观调控提供决策依据。     

中国外汇储备和物价水平关系的实证分析

本文采用1994～2010年的年度数据,在单整和协整检验的基础上,利用Granger因果检验对中国外汇储备与物价水平的内在联系进行实证分析。结果表明,外汇储备变动和物价水平变动之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。因此.通过人民币升值来减少外汇储备并不是抑制国内通货膨胀的有效方法。     

Testing the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis in exchange rates under long-range dependence

This paper analyses the unbiasedness hypothesis between spot and forward volatility, using both the actual and the continuous path of realised volatility, and focusing on long-memory properties. For this purpose, we use daily realised volatility with jumps for the USD/EUR exchange rate negotiated in the FX market and employ fractional integration and cointegration techniques. Both series have long-range dependence, and so does the error correction term of their long-run relationship. Hence, deviations from equilibrium are highly persistent, and the effects of shocks affecting the long-run relationship dissipate very slowly. While for long-term contracts, there is some empirical evidence that the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis does not hold – and, thus, that forward implied volatility is a systematically downward-biased predictor of future spot volatility – for short-term contracts, the evidence is mixed.     

人民币汇率的均衡、错位及其矫正

基于考虑中国和美国基本经济要素的人民币对美元实际汇率、人民币实际有效汇率、美元实际有效汇率的多维度模型,研究了人民币对美元实际汇率、人民币实际有效汇率、美元实际有效汇率的均衡、错位及其矫正。实证研究表明：中国和美国基本经济要素对人民币对美元实际汇率有重要的长期和短期影响,美国基本经济要素对人民币实际有效汇率存在长期和短期溢出效应,中国基本经济要素对美元实际有效汇率存在长期和短期溢出效应。2008～2010年,人民币对美元实际汇率高估5-8%,人民币实际有效汇率高估2-6%,2009～2010年,美元实际有效汇率接近均衡水平。     

Market efficiency and cointegration: Some evidence in Pacific-Basin black exchange markets

This paper investigates the efficiency of the black exchange markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. The study applies unit root and cointegration tests to examine black exchange market efficiency of Pacific-Basin countries. The generating process of black exchange rates appears to be a random walk. This is consistent with Gupta (1981) and other foreign exchange rate unit root test studies. Johansen cointegration tests are performed for these black exchange markets together with Japan and Singapore. The results suggest that there is at least one unit root among the black market exchange rates. Hence, black exchange markets are not collectively efficient.