Does investor sentiment dynamically impact stock returns from different investor horizons? Evidence from the US stock market using a multi-scale method

This article uses the investor sentiment index to investigate the Granger causality between investor sentiment and stock returns for the US economy using a multi-scale method. To focus on the local analysis of different investor horizons, bivariate empirical mode decomposition is used to decompose time series of investor sentiment and stock returns at different timescales. We employ the linear and nonlinear integrated Granger causality method to examine the causal relationship of decomposed series on similar timescales. The results indicate both strong bilateral linear and nonlinear causality between longer-term investor sentiment and stock returns. However, there is no strong evidence for correlation of stock returns and investor sentiment on shorter timescales.     

A Noncooperative Quantity‐Rationing Theory of Transboundary Pollution

We study a remedy for the problem caused by international transfrontier pollution. Our results are derived from the analysis of a noncooperative game model of the determination of emissions in a quantity‐rationing setting. We model the emission capping negotiations using the best response dynamic process and provide natural conditions under which the process has a unique and globally asymptotically stable stationary point. We then analyze the link between type profiles and the stationary points of the negotiation process to derive various comparative statics results and the type‐contingent ordering of emission allocations. These results are used to study the investment strategies that nations can use prior to the negotiations in order to manipulate the equilibrium emission caps.     

‘Efficient’ market testing of the expectations-adjusted supply function hypothesis for Italy

This paper analyses the intertemporal adjustment process of price–cost margins at the four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industry level. Our intial analysis shows the assumption that the adjustment process is consistent over all industries is inappropriate, while the assumption that the adjustment process is consistent over two-digit industries is supported in approximately 31% of the sample industries. We proceed to analyse industry-specific adjustment parameters and find that 50% of the sample are compatible with a decay of 90% of the supranormal return with four years and 85% of the sample exhibit margins that decay in approximately 10 years. Further analysis allows us draw some weak conclusions on the determinants of the adjustment parameter. We find a change in cocentration, high imports, a mature market and low research and development expenditures contribute to slightly lower adjustment coefficients and a faster decay of supranormal profits. Finally, the modelling of the adjustment coefficients highlights the risks associated with excluding outlier data points.     

Bilateral commitment

We consider non-cooperative environments in which two players have the power to gradually and unilaterally rule out some of their actions. Formally, we embed a strategic-form game into a multi-stage game, in which players can restrict their action spaces in all but the final stage, and select among the remaining actions in the last stage. We say that an action profile is implementable by commitment if this action profile is played in the last stage of a subgame-perfect equilibrium path. We provide a complete characterization of all implementable action profiles and a simple method to find them. It turns out that the set of implementable profiles does not depend on the length of the commitment process. We show, furthermore, that commitments can have social value in the sense that in some games there are implementable action profiles that dominate all Nash equilibria of the original game.     

Truthful approximation mechanisms for restricted combinatorial auctions

When attempting to design a truthful mechanism for a computationally hard problem such as combinatorial auctions, one is faced with the problem that most efficiently computable heuristics can not be embedded in any truthful mechanism (e.g. VCG-like payment rules will not ensure truthfulness).We develop a set of techniques that allow constructing efficiently computable truthful mechanisms for combinatorial auctions in the special case where each bidder desires a specific known subset of items and only the valuation is unknown by the mechanism (the single parameter case). For this case we extend the work of Lehmann, O'Callaghan, and Shoham, who presented greedy heuristics. We show how to use If-Then-Else constructs, perform a partial search, and use the LP relaxation. We apply these techniques for several canonical types of combinatorial auctions, obtaining truthful mechanisms with provable approximation ratios.     

Truthful approximation mechanisms for restricted combinatorial auctions

When attempting to design a truthful mechanism for a computationally hard problem such as combinatorial auctions, one is faced with the problem that most efficiently computable heuristics can not be embedded in any truthful mechanism (e.g. VCG-like payment rules will not ensure truthfulness).We develop a set of techniques that allow constructing efficiently computable truthful mechanisms for combinatorial auctions in the special case where each bidder desires a specific known subset of items and only the valuation is unknown by the mechanism (the single parameter case). For this case we extend the work of Lehmann, O'Callaghan, and Shoham, who presented greedy heuristics. We show how to use If-Then-Else constructs, perform a partial search, and use the LP relaxation. We apply these techniques for several canonical types of combinatorial auctions, obtaining truthful mechanisms with provable approximation ratios.     

Hypothesis testing for arbitrary bounds

I derive a rigorous method to help determine whether a true parameter takes a value between two arbitrarily chosen points for a given level of confidence via a multiple testing procedure which strongly controls the familywise error rate. For any test size, the distance between the upper and lower bounds can be made smaller than that created by a confidence interval. The procedure is more powerful than other multiple testing methods that test the same hypothesis. This test can be used to provide an affirmative answer about the existence of a negligible effect.     

Choice sets for spatial discrete choice models in data rich environments

Failure to properly specify an agent's choice set in discrete choice models will generate biased parameter estimates resulting in inaccurate behavioral predictions as well as biased estimates of policy relevant metrics. We propose a method of constructing choice sets by sampling from specific points in space to model agent behavior when choice alternatives are unknown to the researcher, potentially infinite, and differ according to spatial and temporal factors. Using Monte Carlo analysis we compare the performance of this point-based sampling method to the commonly used approach of spatially aggregating choice alternatives. We then apply these alternative approaches to modelling location choice in the Pacific groundfish trawl fishery which has a complex spatial choice structure. Both the Monte Carlo and application results provide considerable support for the efficacy of the point-based approaches.     

Empirical research on time-varying characteristics and efficiency of the Chinese economy and monetary policy: evidence from the MI-TVP-VAR model

Based on the general time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and data mining technology, this study proposes a new extension mixed innovation time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregressive model and investigates time-varying characteristics and efficiencies of different shock effects on China’s monetary policy towards inflation and GDP. Using sample monthly data for 1979–2014, we utilize typical time points to illustrate the mechanisms between different economic variables via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and impulse response function. The empirical results show that the monetary transmission mechanism in China can be effective in the real economy, but with delay and efficiency leakage. The average delay and maximum efficiency can be measured through the MI model, which can capture accurate information of economic variables, effectively improving the precision of macroeconomic regulation and control. Meanwhile, the difference between the impacts of different channels is obvious; while the impact of interest rates is not significant, the impact of stock market is significant. The action mechanism between GDP and the inflation rate undergoes a gradual structural change, evidently displaying time-varying characteristics and a gradually weakening impact over time.     

“税收痛苦指数”的理论错误与反思

近年来,美国福布斯杂志推出了"税收痛苦指数"排名。该方法在税前扣除费用、税制结构、税率结构方面存在严重理论错误,分析了这些错误,并从宏观税负与"税收痛苦"的关系、专款专用税的权益性等方面驳斥了我国税负高的观点,最后就我国税收宣传方式与方法、财税体制完善等方面提出一些建议。     

TESTING THE STRUCTURE OF CONDITIONAL CORRELATIONS IN MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODELS: A GENERALIZED CROSS‐SPECTRUM APPROACH*

We introduce a class of generally applicable specification tests for constant and dynamic structures of conditional correlations in multivariate GARCH models. The tests are robust to the presence of time‐varying higher‐order conditional moments of unknown form and are pure significance tests. The tests can identify linear and nonlinear misspecifications in conditional correlations. Our approach does not necessitate a particular parameter estimation method and distributional assumption on the error process. The asymptotic distribution of the tests is invariant to the uncertainty in parameter estimation. We assess the finite sample performance of our tests using simulated and real data.     

Volume rendering visualization of 3D spherical mantle convection with an unstructured mesh

We propose a new approach to utilize the algorithm of hardware-assisted visibility sorting (HAVS) in the 3D volume rendering of spherical mantle convection simulation results over unstructured grid configurations. We will also share our experience in using three different spherical convection codes and then taking full advantages of the enhanced efficiency of visualization techniques, which are based on the HAVS techniques and related transfer functions. The transfer function is a powerful tool designed specifically for editing and exploring large-scale datasets coming from numerical computation for a given environmental setting, and generates hierarchical data structures, which will be used in the future for fast access of GPU visualization facilities. This method will meet the coming urgent needs of real-time visualization of 3D mantle convection, by avoiding the demands of huge amount of I/O space and intensive network traffic over distributed parallel terascale or petascale architecture.     

Migrant Age Profiles and Long-Run Living Standards in Australia

The age profile of immigration to Australia can be altered by public policies. This article applies a method of valuing long term population paths in order to evaluate alternative immigrant age profiles based on a proxy indicator of living standards over time for Australia. Results show that the variation in value of the population path follows an inverted U-shape by immigrant's age. The strength of preference between immigrants aged 20–29 years and older working age immigrants reduces as the social discount rate increases. Higher life expectancy and lower fertility accentuate preference for younger working age immigrants.     

A Rapid Grid Search Method for Solving Dynamic Programming Problems in Economics

We introduce a rapid grid search method in solving dynamic programming problems in economics. Compared to mainstream grid search methods, by using local information of the Bellman equation, this method can significantly increase the efficiency in solving dynamic programming problems by reducing the grid points searched in the control space.     

分税制改革与完善社会主义市场经济体制研究

完善分税制支出端改革对于完善社会主义市场经济体制有着十分重要的促进作用.我国财政改革自1980年实行承包制及分税制已走过40年的辉煌历程,"四十而不惑"的最好纪念是聚焦成功经验,客观认知财政改革前20年的"头羊效应"和后20年过渡期的某些弱效影响,以更好落实习近平总书记"人均公共服务均等化"为政理财思想,推进基本公共服...     

Avoiding arbitrary exclusion restrictions using ratios of reduced-form estimates

We show how to obtain coherent structural-form (SF) exclusion restrictions using the reduced-form (RF) parameter ratios. It will be shown that an over-identified SF corresponds to a group of regressors sharing the same RF ratio value; those regressors should be excluded jointly from the SF. If there is no group structure, then the SF is just-identified; in this case, however, it is no longer clear which regressor should be excluded. Hence, just-identified SF’s are more arbitrary than over-identified SF’s in terms of exclusion restrictions. This is in stark contrast to the notion that the former is less arbitrary than the latter, because the former excludes fewer regressors. We formalize these points, and then suggest to find the number of modes in the estimated RF ratios as a way to find groups in the ratios. For this purpose, an informal graphical method using a kernel nonparametric method and a formal modality test are employed. An empirical example with selling price in a residential real estate market and duration on the market as two endogenous variables is provided. The authors are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for their comments     

Industry eco-innovation strategies for process upgrading: systemic limits of internalising externalities

Industry has been upgrading its production processes through eco-innovation combining environmental and economic benefits, thus reducing some resource burdens which otherwise lie outside economic accounting. Some companies have shown interest in evaluating investment options for resource burdens and total value added across a whole-system value chain. Our EC research project developed a method for whole-system assessment of eco-innovation with multi-stakeholder cooperation. In three cases presented here, tensions arise among various aims, resource burdens, system levels, beneficiaries and timescales, thus complicating the concept of eco-innovation as a win–win strategy. Radical eco-innovation would depend on extra functions, value-chain actors and resource usages which can provide greater overall benefits. But such investment faces many systemic obstacles. Eco-innovation remains path dependent, thus limiting the scope to internalise environmental externalities. The tensions and difficulties cast doubt on an EC strategy emphasising uptake of eco-innovative technologies as the means to decouple economic growth from resource burdens.     

A history of European electricity day-ahead prices

In this article, we examine the development of day-ahead prices in five European markets which became more connected over recent years. Where previous studies examined the convergence of price levels over time, we focus on patterns in estimates for the parameters in a switching regimes model. This makes it possible to distinguish between prices under normal market conditions and under non-normal market conditions, those market conditions that can cause extreme price spikes. We expect that increased connectivity yields additional supply in the short-term and therefore will reduce the impact of price spikes. Our results indicate that the impact of price spikes and volatility decreased over time, that prices behave more random, and that the parameter estimates between various connected markets seem to have converged between the Belgian, Dutch, French, German and Nordic day-ahead markets over the years 2003 through 2010. These results can be explained by increased connectivity and improved liquidity.     

基于自助式福利组合的知识型企业福利点数方法研究

本文以自助式福利与传统福利之比较为切入点，分析了自助式福利是福利的一种创新形式，认为基于自助式福利组合的福利点数方法是激励知识型员工的有效手段，能够实现多赢，本文构建了知识型企业福利点数方法设计模型，并对福利点数方法实施进行实例探讨。     

非主导运营商小区接入网络模式的经济性分析

依据电信网络建设、运营管理的实践经验,总结、抽象小区接入网络模式;分析小区接入网络建往、运营的主要成本构成,按照运营商实施小区接入网络工程规范和当前价格水平,测算不同接入网络模式的覆盖成本、设备端口成本、用户接入成本、维护服务成本和本地网间结算成本数据;以投资回收期为目标,建立小区接入网络模式的分析模型,测算各种模式下的投资回收期;基于弹性函数方法,分析投资回收期时用户占有率、维护服务成本、覆盖成本、设备成本等相关参数的敏感性。