中日通货紧缩的比较分析及借鉴作用的研究

中国与日本在二十世纪九十年代以来所经历的通货紧缩有诸多的相似点,但由于两国的经济状况不同,因此形成通货紧缩的原因有不同之处,本文拟对两国通货紧缩的异同进行简单的比较分析。并试图通过比较分析来总结成功的经验,也为了能更好理解政府的相关政策。     

中日通货紧缩的比较分析及借鉴作用的研究

中国与日本在二十世纪九十年代以来所经历的通货紧缩有诸多的相似点,但由于两国的经济状况不同,因此形成通货紧缩的原因有不同之处,本文拟对两国通货紧缩的异同进行简单的比较分析。并试图通过比较分析来总结成功的经验,也为了能更好理解政府的相关政策。     

人民币升值对出口的影响分析

一、引言 2002年10月,摩根斯坦利首席经济学家史蒂芬·罗奇提出中国向世界输出通货紧缩的观点,认为中国以出口为导向的强劲经济增长是引致全球通货紧缩的重要因素.2003年2月,日本财务大臣盐川正十郎在七国集团财长会议上,呼叫七国集团逼迫人民币升值,达到全球反通货紧缩的口的.     

从通货紧缩看凯恩斯流动性陷井

<正> 一当前全球通货膨胀是罕见的现象,而通货紧缩反倒在不少国家出现。日本最具典型。日本通货紧缩的压力,已导致经济萎缩。自1997年以来,日本经济出现衰退。据该国政府预测,1998年实际经济增长率将从正1.9%下降为负1.8%,低于1997年度的负0.7%。这是战后日本经济首次出现连续两年负增长,同时也是战后日本政府对经济增长率的预测最低的一次。日本政府之所以大幅度下调预测     

全球性通货紧缩与中国因素

最近一个时期,“中国输出通货紧缩论”在国际经济界很是盛行。一些国际组织和国家的政府要员纷纷出来表态,认为美国、日本等主要发达国家之所以陷入通货紧缩或受到通缩威胁,重要原因之一就是中国低价向国际市场大量销售商品,对进口国的商品市场价格产生打压效果,引起物价不断走低,并导致经济不振,中国成为世界通货紧缩的替罪羊。那么,这种观点到底有没有道理?中国有没有出现通货紧缩,和世界性的通货紧缩有什么关系?摆脱通缩这一“寒冰”的有效办法是什么?本文拟作简要的回答。     

扩张性的财政与货币政策能否使中国经济走出衰退？——对当前中国通货紧缩与流动性宽松并存现象解析

全球金融危机演化背景下,经济衰退造成的通货紧缩与政府的经济刺激政策形成的流动性宽裕并存。文章针对这一现象产生原因进行了分析,并根据我国经济发展特点分析了流动性宽松与通货紧缩的关系,对通货紧缩的发展趋势及对转变我国经济增长方式的影响进行了分析,指出了宽松流动性的有限性,并提出了应对通货紧缩、转变经济增长方式、实现我国经济健康发展的政策建议。     

发达国家应对通货紧缩及通缩预期对经济增长影响的政策研究

当前,中国经济面临通货紧缩风险,市场通缩预期对需求和经济增长产生了明显影响。日本、美国、欧洲等发达国家在应对通货紧缩影响中所实施的宏观调控政策,即以非传统货币政策(UMP)为主体的宏观经济政策,效果突出。虽然中国的经济运行和宏观政策背景与发达国家有很大不同,特别是货币政策仍运行于常规政策的框架内,但发达国家应对通货紧缩及通缩预期的宏观政策取向、国际经济学家研究这种政策及其效果的方法和理论,仍然对中国经济的发展有一定的借鉴作用。     

经济传真

香港22年来首调联汇率，否认为人民币升值作准备；60位学者坚信：下半年中国经济不会出现通货紧缩；中国纺织品商会预警：对六种输美纺织品再亮红灯；     

卡在金融喉咙里的鱼剌 警惕全球“通货紧缩”

去年以来，国际经济评论中频频出现“通货紧缩”这个概念。有报道指出，除了油价由于伊拉克危机有所震荡和上涨，全球商品的价格都在普遍下跌。在东亚地区，日本、香港、中国大陆、台湾，都不同程度地承受到“通货紧缩”的压力。受其影响，当前东亚以至全球经济都面临失业率攀升、就业率下降的问题。究竟什么是通货紧缩?它是如何突然在经济中出现的?其趋势如何?     

治理通货紧缩的财政对策

１９９８年以来,我国出现了明显的通货紧缩迹象,而且随着时间的推移,这种迹象日渐显现,成了影响经济增长的一个重要制约因素,也是国内外普遍关注的一个热点问题。对通货紧缩的性质、程度和成因,我国理论界虽有不尽相同的观点与看法,但在认真对待通货紧缩现象,积极解决通货紧缩的不利影响等问题上,却有着共同的认识和紧迫感。无论是从世界各国治理通货紧缩的历史经验,还是从我国当前面临的突出矛盾来看,缓解和消除通货紧缩的措施,既要从相关体制改革、制度创新、结构调整等方面入手,以解决社会经济生活中的深层次障碍,又要适时调整政策内容,…     

COULD DEFLATION BE IDEAL?

Slight systematic deflation is ideal in a growing economy. However, adopting negative inflation targeting would not be stable. Instead, we should use trend deflation under price-level targeting.     

论GDP、CPI与国民经济总价值TH及通货膨胀、紧缩率i

本文通过使用"全面价值论"的观点,找到了国民经济总价值、剩余价值的实时计算指标及度量方法,也就是具体找到了GDP的完善化指标。给出了全面价值的价值规律指导下的国民经济全面协调发展的指路明灯。此外,通过全面价值论观点,还找到了符合通货膨胀或通货紧缩定义的"全部商品"的通货膨胀率或通货紧缩率计算公式,通过全部商品的通货膨胀率或通货紧缩率的具体计算,可以还原纸币本身的时间价值,使纸币起到实物货币的功能,成为根本治理通货膨胀、通货紧缩及金融危机的基本实操。     

The impact of monetary policy in the midst of big shocks

This paper studies the impact of Federal Reserve policies that created the largest deviations from price stability during the Fed׳s first 100 years: the post-World War I deflation, the deflation of the Great Depression, the inflation of World War II, and the Great Inflation of the 1970s. In terms of their macroeconomic impacts, I find that deflation was uniquely depressing in the 1930s because of cartel policies that prevented nominal prices and wages from adjusting to clear markets, and not because deflation is generically depressing. I find that the biggest impact of monetary policy during World War II was in debasing debt through inflation. I find that the main drivers of the 1970s economy were long-run changes in productivity and the labor market, and that there may have been little that the Fed could have done at this time to expand employment and output. More broadly, I find that macroeconomic performance would have been better over the Fed׳s first century had the Fed followed a monetary policy to deliver stable prices.     

Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions

The concept of a ‘secondary deflation’ was developed in the 1930s by the German economist Wilhelm Röpke, who saw it as something different from a normal depression. While a primary deflation is a necessary reaction to the inflation from a boom period, a secondary deflation is independent and economically purposeless. Röpke argued that secondary depressions occurred in the US, Germany, France and Switzerland during the 1930s, but was vague on what made them follow primary depressions. Recently, the Taiwanese–American economist Richard C. Koo has claimed to have discovered the ‘Holy Grail of macroeconomics’, that is, what made the Great Depression so deep and long. During the Great Depression, the bursting of the asset price bubble resulted in private sectors having more debt than assets; as they shifted from maximising profits to minimising debt, the consequent debt deflation shrank the economy. According to Koo, Western economies today are suffering from a similar ‘balance sheet recession’. Strengthened by the notion of a balance sheet recession, Röpke's long‐lost insights might advance our understanding of the business cycle in general and the present crisis in the US and the Eurozone in particular.     

The difficulty of discerning what’s too tight: Taylor rules and Japanese monetary policy

Observers have relied increasingly on simple reaction functions, such as the Taylor rule, to assess the conduct of monetary policy. Applying this approach to deflationary or near-zero inflation environments is problematic, however, and this paper examines two shortcomings of particular relevance to the Japanese case of the last decade. One is the unusually high degree of uncertainty associated with potential output in an environment of prolonged stagnation and deflation. Consequently, reaction function-based assessments of Japanese monetary policy are so sensitive to the chosen gauge of potential output as to be unreliable. The second shortcoming is the neglect of policy expectations, which become critically important as nominal interest rates approach zero. Using long-term bond yields, we identify five episodes since 1996 characterized by abrupt declines in Japanese inflation expectations. Policies undertaken by the Bank of Japan during this period did little to stabilize expectations, and the August 2000 interest-rate increase appears to have intensified deflationary concerns.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Global deflation – a genuine risk?

• The notable decline in inflation in the Eurozone, US and UK since mid-2013 has led to suggestions that a period of widespread price deflation across the major economies is a risk. Adding to these concerns has been the trajectory of producer prices – already declining in the Eurozone and China and showing very subdued growth elsewhere.
• Our global GDP forecasts do not, in isolation, point to a worldwide deflation risk. We expect growth at 2.8% this year and 3.2% next, little changed from last month.
• But the starting point for this growth matters, specifically the gap between actual and potential output last year. Even with reasonable growth, an initially large output gap would imply downward pressure on inflation over the next two years.
• Unfortunately, the size of the output gap is very uncertain. There is a wide range of estimates for the major economies, especially Japan. Part of the problem is that it is hard to know how much potential output was (or was not) permanently lost during the global financial crisis and recession.
• Assuming substantial permanent losses, output gaps might be relatively modest now, but a more optimistic view of the supply side of the economy would suggest output gaps could be quite large – and arguably this fits better with the recent evidence from inflation.
• Overall, while we see a genuine risk of deflation in the Eurozone (with around a 15% probability) we are more upbeat about the other major economies, where growth in the broad money supply and nominal GDP do not seem to be signaling deflation risks.
• But the difficulty of measuring ‘slack’ in the economy for us underlines the case for central banks to err on the side of caution when setting monetary policy, and either not tightening too soon or easing further. This month we have built in a further ECB rate cut to our Eurozone forecast. In Japan, we have revised down growth for 2014–15 with recent data strengthening the case for additional monetary easing this year.

     

一种基于马尔可夫链的随机预测模型——以日本地方经济为例

本文通过分析研究,提出一种基于马尔可夫链的随机预测模型,该模型在预测日本地方经济时可以取得较好的效果。该模型可以预测2020年及之前日本各地方县市经济的变化情况。虽然本文提出的模型比较简单,但通过扩展,该模型在预测日本地方县市经济时可以提供更准确的信息。     

Debt-deflation,financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR

Since the economic meltdown of 2008–2009 many euro area countries have experienced disinflation, and even deflation, in a period with large debt overhang, creating the conditions for continuing financial market stress. As disinflation and deflation push up the real interest rate, while growth and income declines, the leveraging problem becomes more severe and the economy risks shifting into a regime with high insolvency risk, high financial stress, rising credit spreads, possibly accompanied by strong adverse macroeconomic feedback loops. Investigating the consequences of those magnifying feedback loops, given the debt-deflation, we demonstrate the possibility of unstable dynamics and downward spirals in the presence of regime-dependent macro feedback loops, using a theoretical model with decentralized matching mechanisms on both labor and financial markets. To explore the amplifying linkages between deflation, output, labor and financial markets, we employ a new solution procedure called Non-linear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) to solve our models variants for out-of-steady-state dynamics. We apply a four variable Multi-Regime VAR (MRVAR) model with regime dependent (generalized) impulse-response functions (GIRFs) to study deflationary and financial risk drivers empirically for Southern and Northern EU countries. New measures for financial risk drivers are employed and GIRFs for output, inflation rates, interest rates and financial stress are explored. The econometric results of the MRVAR are roughly in line with the theoretical regime change model.     

论港口物流业在重庆物流体系中的地位及发展

重庆地处长江上游和我国中西部地区结合部，是长江上游和西南地区最大的水，陆，空立体交通枢纽，自古以来它借助自身的天然优势，对重庆经济的发展发挥着不可估量的作用。现代化物流体系已成为当今世界经济飞速发展的必然选择。重庆应当充分发挥自己的港航优势和区位优势借助黄金发展的机遇，大力发展港口物流，使港口成为物流中心，从而推动重庆物流业发生实质性的飞跃，带动重庆及其辐射范围内的区域经济的协调发展。     

我国高新技术产业的公共财政贡献分析

高新技术产业是知识密集、技术密集的产业,是代表一个国家综合国力和整体竞争力的重要先导产业,也是新一轮的经济增长点。文章首先对高新技术产业等相关概念做了界定;其次分别从高新技术产业对国民经济的先导作用、高新技术企业和高新技术产业区的发展以及其在对外经济中的效益这几个方面,分析了高新技术产业对我国财政收入的贡献;最后分析了我国高新技术产业存在的问题,提出加大其对财政的贡献的若干战略建议。