First-purchase diffusion models of new-product acceptance

This article constitutes a review and exposition of first-purchase diffusion models of new-product acceptance. These models have been developed to predict the cumulative number of new-product adopters over time and serve the purpose of forecasting sales for durable goods and novelty items. In addition to considering traditional models, a number of recent models are reviewed and illustrated, and limitations and further extensions of the models are discussed.     

The implications of diffusion models for accelerating the diffusion of innovation

This paper explores the implications of a simple, yet robust model of innovation diffusion for developing insight into the problem of controlling the rate of new product diffusion. Some basic, theoretical results are developed using a simple model. Those results are shown to relate to optimal policies developed from a more complex model of innovation diffusion, developed for the Department of Energy's photovoltaic program.     

Two generalized rational models for forecasting innovation diffusion

This article demonstrates the development and use of two Generalized Rational Models I and II (GRM I and II) representing innovation diffusion. Specifically, the GRM II covers the same area as the NSRL model, which includes the Coleman and the Blackman/Fisher-Pry models, while the GRM I covers the same area as a modified NSRL model (mod. NSRL), also introduced hereby, and including Floyd, Blackman/Fisher-Pry, Sharif-Kabir and Exponential models. Both the GRM I and the GRM II provide a form of differential equation which always has for a solution a fact which cannot be met when dealing with the NSRL and mod. NSRL models.Some applications are presented, first to illustrate the wide applicability and the usefulness of the models and second to demonstrate the alternate use of the GRM I and mod. NSRL, and GRM II and NSRL models, which usually approximate very well.     

A study on the relationship between technology diffusion and new product diffusion

This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent.     

An improved single equation estimation procedure for rational expectations models

This paper introduces a new readily programmable single-equation errors in variables estimation procedure for rational expectations models. For the illustrative example provided, this new estimator outperforms the currently available estimators.     

Binomial innovation diffusion models with dynamic potential adopter population

Models for describing the time pattern of the diffusion processes for innovations are used by researchers in various disciplines. These models are in general binomial models—binomial in the sense that they focus their attention on two causal variables: 1) that part of the population who have already adopted the innovation, and 2) the rest of the population who are potential adopters. However, these models have a serious limitation in that the potential adopter population is assumed to remain constant over time. This paper presents some modified binomial innovation diffusion models that incorporate dynamic potential adopter populations. Moreover, the developed models are applied to some case studies, and their superiority in forecasting the time pattern of diffusion is also included in this presentation.     

A procedure for adapting technological forecasting models

A simple procedure is presented for adapting available mathematical models for forecasting technological substitution. The procedure takes into consideration the strengths and weaknesses of the available models and the environmental interactions to identify a set of feasible alternative forecasts, from which a selection is to be made by the decision-maker based on judgement.     

A note on the diffusion of innovation

The paper deals with the process of substitution between technologies in a framework of increasing returns to scale. The approach stresses the interaction between capacity expansion and market demand as explanations of the diffusion of technologies into their niches. The demand and supply sides of the diffusion process are therefore brought together to determine simultaneously patterns of output and prices.It analyzes the dynamics of the substitution path, where a logistic diffusion process for the new technology is assumed, and determines the substitution curve between the old technology and the new one.     

A non-homogeneous non-uniform influence model of innovation diffusion

A model of innovation diffusion which gives unequal weightage to the adopters of different temporal stages and captures commonly observed ups and downs in new product diffusion is proposed. It is shown that our model possesses features of the existing flexible diffusion models and shows better fit which is indicated by the values of R²_adj, mean absolute deviation, and mean percentage error and estimates a larger market potential, M. It has an interesting feature of conversion factors, first increasing then vanishing, much before we approach market saturation, implying that there is a scope of new thrust in converting remaining potential adopters.     

Quality risk aversion, conjectures, and new product diffusion

In this paper, we provide a generalization of the standard models of the diffusion of a new product. Consumers are heterogeneous and risk averse, and the firm is uncertain about the demand curve: both learn from past observations. The attitude towards risk has important effects with regard to the diffusion pattern. In our model, downward-biased signals to consumers can prevent the success of the product, even if its objective quality is high: a “lock-in” result. We show, in addition, that the standard logistic pattern can be derived from the model. Finally, we discuss the steady states of the learning dynamics, with regard to the multiplicity and the local stability of equilibria, and to their welfare properties.     

A simple IID test for autoregressive conditional duration models

We propose using the rank-based variance ratio test as an easy-to-implement test for testing the independent and identically distributed assumption of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models. We apply the proposed test to duration data of five stocks and get the same conclusions as previous studies.     

A fast estimation procedure for discrete choice random coefficients demand model

We document speed-up gains of graphical processing unit (GPU) computing over central processing unit (CPU) for the estimation of discrete choice random coefficient demand model. When we use a moderate-sized GPU, the computation is six to twenty times faster, where the smallest speed-up factor, six, is obtained from a comparison with the parallel computing over sixteen CPU cores.     

Risk identification in product innovation projects: new perspectives and lessons learned

The paper addresses the improvement of innovation project (IP) risk identification by applying the RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure) method, and represents a follow-up analysis of the subject (a case of IP before and after applying the method). The activities of risk identification are an initial phase in most of risk management processes and classifications. High-level risk-taking is one of the key characteristics of IPs, due to the fact that this type of projects is related to implementation of new ideas. An example illustrates the combination of RBS/WBS for evaluating the risk concentration, called Risk Breakdown Matrix. This research has proven that implementation of the presented approach in the context of the Serbian market can improve efficiency of all phases of the project, especially those related to planning phase.     

产品创新对组织绩效关系之研究

越来越多的企业利用不断推出新产品获得市场与消费者的青睐,以建立长期竞争优势。企业若能成功推出新产品,除能以独一无二的新产品提高产品与市场的价值之外,更能提升企业整体竞争力。然而,在现今竞争激烈导致产品生命周期急遽缩短的趋势下,使得产品创新在企业日常营运角色中的重要性日渐增加,企业若能掌握产品推出时机,并且藉由创新延长产品生命周期,就有机会维持企业在座业中的领导地位。本研究以3M作为个案研究之对象,探讨渐进式创新、技术突破、市场突破以及激追式创新等四种不同的产品创新类型对组织绩效的影响,期能藉由实际个案与相关数据显示产品创新与组织绩效间之关联性。研究结果显示,无论属于何种产品创新类型,对组织绩效都有正向的影响。若能激发激进式产品创新的产生,更能透过新产品或新技术创造新的产品践,亦能强化组织的竞争优势,成为组织竞争优势的根源。3M超过百年的发展历史以及不断创新的历程与经验,使它成为商业历史发展的裹程碑外,更成为现今各企业的典范与楷模。     

Knowledge integration methods,product innovation and high-tech new venture performance in China

Combining insights from knowledge-based theory (KBT) and the product innovation literature, this paper explores whether and how knowledge integration methods contribute to high-tech new venture performance in China’s emerging economy. Using data from 295 entrepreneurs and top executives in Chinese high-tech new ventures, we find that both the coordinated integration of knowledge and systemic integration of knowledge have positive effects on high-tech new venture performance and product innovation. Competitive intensity moderates the impact of knowledge integration methods on product innovation. Moreover, product innovation is a mediator in the relationship between knowledge integration methods and high-tech new venture performance. Our findings have important theoretical and practical implications.     

Location models as models of product choice

Markets in which firm choice of product is an economic decision are commonly analyzed using a variant of the location model pioneered by Hotelling (Econ. J.39 (1929), 41–57). This paper develops a framework for formalizing the idea that a set of consumers with preferences defined over an abstract set of commodities can be represented as if they behaved as is typically assumed in the goods-as-locations models. With this framework in place, we are able to derive the preference assumptions underlying the two most common versions of these models, and also to uncover the foundations of the now well-known principle of minimum differentiation.     

A new characterization of simple majority

Three axiomatic characterizations of two-alternative simple majority choice are presented. The first, by Kenneth May, uses anonymity and neutrality along with a positive responsiveness condition. The third characterizes simple majority solely in terms of local dynamics and a Pareto-optimality condition. The second, noted previously by the author, provides a connecting link between the others.     

Alternative estimation methods for two-regime models: A mathematical programming approach

This paper suggests mathematical programming methods for estimating the parameters of piecewise regression models. Maximum likelihood estimation results in a non-convex optimization problem which is not continuously differentiable, and might even become discontinuous. To solve these difficulties we suggest two classes of methods. The first one consists of ‘scanning methods’, which are combinatorial in nature and therefore adequate for problems limited in size. The second class consists of ‘smoothing (or approximation) methods’, which can be used for larger problems. While scanning methods always find the global solution in a finite number of steps, smoothing methods are only guaranteed to find a local optimum. The paper ends with an application of the methods to the determination of export prices.     

A robust algorithm for parameter estimation in smooth transition autoregressive models

This paper considers whether earned wealth affects bidding behavior in an induced-value second-price auction. We find people bid more sincerely in the auction with earned wealth given monetary incentives; earned wealth did not induce sincere bidding in hypothetical auctions.