消费资本资产定价理论述评

一、消费资本资产定价理论的提出及其三个谜思 经典的CAPM(Sharpe,1964;Lintner,1965)是在均衡资本市场中解释和预测资产风险溢价的重要理论.该模型通过资产收益与市场平均收益的协方差来衡量需要进行收益补偿的风险.此处的市场收益是指所有财富中获得的平均收益率.Merton(1973)将CAPM模型拓展为连续时间序列模型.     

消费资产定价模型对我国股票市场股权溢价的实证研究

本文采用递归形式的消费资产定价模型,使用广义矩估计(GMM)方法对我国股票市场1991-2011年间股市收益率完整样本期进行了实证研究,检验我国股票市场股权溢价现状,结果显示我国不存在“股权溢价之谜”的现象,且基于递归效用形式的消费资产定价模型参数估计结果更具合理的意义解释.     

连续时间SV模型的估计及在金融风险分析中的应用

本文分析了由连续时间平方根随机波动模型确定的资产收益的无条件联合特征函数及统计特性.对连续时间SV模型,提出了基于经验特征函数的参数估计方法,这种估计方法既不需要对连续时间过程的离散化,也不需要取样路径的模拟,实施起来较简单.使用上海和深圳股市的指数日收益数据对经验特征函数方法在连续时间随机波动模型参数估计中的应用进行了实证分析,并证明了两个市场波动过程存在均值回复及连续时间随机波动模型拟合资产收益数据的优势.     

对一种n期期权的定价讨论

卢卡斯（1978）的模型表现出了许多资本资产定价模型的共有特征。它们应用各种形式的随机最优增长模型以产生消费的最优随机过程。这一随机过程可被重新解释为具有相同的偏好和技术的动态随机竞争经济的均衡消费过程。这种均衡消费过程与以下将要提到的欧拉方程（文中（3）式）的某种形式结合起来，以计算所分析的资产的价格。     

基于动态条件相关性的跨期资本定价实证研究

跨期资本资产模型提出了风险与收益之间的跨期关系,但是以往在证明跨期关系时普遍使用的是静态条件协方差。动态条件相关性模型能够描述时间序列间动态的相关性,利用动态条件相关性模型验证了跨期资本资产定价模型中的跨期关系,并且得到了资产组合收益率和这些因素间的动态条件协方差,然后测试这些协方差是否能够预测资产组合收益的时间序列变化。通过实证分析发现对于长样本和短样本来说,资产组合和市场组合之间的协方差对资产组合收益的影响是不同的。     

消费资本资产定价理论述评

一、消费资本资产定价理论的提出及其三个谜思经典的CAPM(Sharpe,1964;Lintner,1965)是在均衡资本市场中解释和预测资产风险溢价的重要理论。该模型通过资产收益与市场平均收益的协方差来衡量需要进行收益补偿的风险。此处的市场收益是指所有财富中获得的平均收益率。Merton(1973)将CAPM模型拓展为连续时间序列模型。他假设其它条件不变,投资和交易连续地发生,并且利息率是波动的,将CAPM从单期扩展到多期,从而推导出CAPM的跨时际模型。在该模型中,资产风险溢价由多个贝塔决定,第一个贝塔代表系统性风险,其它贝塔是用来描述投资机会…     

权证上市对标的股票的影响——基于中国股市的分析与实证

本文基于连续时间动态资产定价模型,推导出权证作为一种新的、依赖于标的股票的风险资产上市交易后,标的股票均衡价格变动的一般性结果,揭示出标的股票资产定价机制必然发生根本性改变;通过建立标的股票收益率与波动率的计量模型验证理论结果;实证考察,在中国,权证上市交易后对标的股票收益率及其波动性的影响,最后得出关于标的股票收益率各方面特征变化的完整结论,作为监管部门与投资者决策的参考依据。     

消费资产定价模型对我国股票市场股权溢价的实证研究

本文采用递归形式的消费资产定价模型,使用广义矩估计(GMM)方法对我国股票市场1991-2011年间股市收益率完整样本期进行了实证研究,检验我国股票市场股权溢价现状,结果显示我国不存在"股权溢价之谜"的现象,且基于递归效用形式的消费资产定价模型参数估计结果更具合理的意义解释。     

基于马尔科夫状态转换下的CAPM实证研究

传统资本资产定价模型（CAPM）不仅假定收益率为正态分布,同时认为反映市场风险载荷系数和条件方差是固定的,这与现实存在较大出入。实际上资产收益率的结构存在动态不断转换特性,本文从动态角度提出了基于马尔科夫状态转换下的资本资产定价模型,即允许股票系数和条件方差呈现时变状况,经与经典资本资产定价模型估计结果比较表明,本模型具有更好的效果并刻画了动态变化过程。     

效用调整参数与连续时间资产定价模型

习惯形成对资产定价有重要的影响,但是以往的研究都没有讨论消费小于习惯形成水平的情况。本文构造了一个包含消费大于习惯形成水平和消费小于习惯形成水平的统一模型。我们的研究表明,在完备市场条件下,个别资产的价格是由不考虑习惯形成的模型A和不考虑现金流效应的模型B的个别资产价格按照特定比例分配的结果。剩余消费比率是股票市场内部波动性的一个来源,剩余消费比率的变动可以导致资产价格的剧烈波动。这些结果可以帮助我们理解金融市场的内在波动性以及全面了解习惯形成对资产定价的影响。     

An intertemporal equilibrium beta pricing model

This article develops an intertemporal, discrete-time, competitiveequilibrium version of the arbitrage pricing theory, (APT) andexplores the econometric implications of this model under variousrestrictions on investor preferences and on the dynamic behaviourof dividends. We describe conditions under which the econometrictechnique typically used for estimating and testing the APTcan be shown to be consistent with our economic model. We relateour intertemporal version of the APT to the static APT and toMerton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model.     

Modeling Asset Premiums and the Riskfree Rate in General Equilibrium CCAPM

We elaborate on the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) to reveal a set of underlying forces that determine asset returns. We use generalized preferences, allow for labor-leisure choice, a broad asset portfolio, and holding international claims. A calibration of the model with US data learns that excess stock and bond returns can be replicated. At the same time, however, the riskfree interest rate generally appears to be mispriced, consistent with Weil (1989). Additional results show that in general two optimal values of the intertemporal substitution parameter correspond with a specified coefficient of risk aversion. Tests that assess the dynamic properties of the model yield mixed results, but are most favorable when home bias is allowed.     

Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns

The Euler equations derived from intertemporal asset pricing models, together with the unconditional moments of asset returns, imply a lower bound on the volatility of the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. This paper develops and implements statistical tests of these lower bound restrictions. While the availability of short time series of consumption data often undermines the ability of these tests to discriminate among different utility functions, we find that the restrictions implied by a number of widely studied financial data sets continue to pose quite a challenge to the current generation of intertemporal asset pricing theories.     

The Equilibrium Valuation of Risky Discrete Cash Flows in Continuous Time

This paper values a contingent claim to discrete stochastic cash flows generated by a Poisson arrival process with a randomly varying intensity parameter. In the most general case, both the size and the arrival intensity of cash flows may correlate wih state variables in a continuous time economy. Assuming the conditions of an intertemporal capital aset pricing model, solutions for the value of the contingent claim can be found using various techniques. The paper suggests immediate applications to the valuation of insurance contracts, the decision to build a firm with unknown future investment opportunities, and the pricing of mortgage-backed securities.     

Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology

Over the years, many asset pricing studies have employed the sample cross‐sectional regression (CSR) R² as a measure of model performance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this statistic and develop associated model comparison tests, taking into account the impact of model misspecification on the variability of the CSR estimates. We encounter several examples of large R² differences that are not statistically significant. A version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM) exhibits the best overall performance, followed by the Fama–French three‐factor model. Interestingly, the performance of prominent consumption CAPMs is sensitive to variations in experimental design.     

Time preference and capital asset pricing models

Results of the theory of individual optimal consumption-investment choice under uncertainty are extended to a class of intertemporally dependent preferences for consumption streams. These results are then used to show that with intertemporally dependent preferences, which are more realistic than the separable time-additive preference structure, Merton's (1973) multi-beta intertemporal capital asset pricing model is still valid, but it can no longer be collapsed to Breeden's (1979) single consumption-beta model.     

Pension benefits, wealth accumulation, and capital market equilibrium: a life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model

This paper examines the impacts of pension benefits on capital asset pricing in conjunction with wealth accumulation and retirement, and derives and tests a dynamic capital asset pricing model (CAPM) within the framework of a life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model. The life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model maximizes the expected utility of the individual's lifetime wealth in a continuous time process. An optimal solution of the individual's wealth path, incorporating the ages of retirement and death, is obtained and, based on the optimal wealth path, an analysis of comparative dynamics is pursued. The dynamic CAPM is then derived from the optimal wealth path; simulation and nonparametric tests are undertaken to evaluate the performance of the dynamic CAPM as compared to the traditional model which does not consider the impacts of pension benefits and the static model that incorporates the effects of pension benefits. The test results suggest that the proposed dynamic CAPM closely states the expected rate of return for a capital asset; that the new dynamic CAPM is preferable over the static model that is preferable over the traditional model; and that the three models considered are statistically distinguishable from one another.     

The effect of time-varying covariances on asset risk premia

In this article we examine an intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows for time-varying conditional covariances that are assumed to follow a multivariate integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (IGARCH) process. The resulting pricing equation includes idiosyncratic risk premia in addition to the usual market beta. Empirical analysis based on ten size and ten industry portfolios reveals significant idiosyncratic premia for most portfolios. Overall, we reject the static CAPM in favor of the intertemporal CAPM.     

The Implications of Nonmarketable Income for Consumption-Based Models of Asset Pricing

A new representation of nonmarketable (NM) income is introduced in this essay. Using this representation and continuous trading, there exists a set of individuals who do not participate in the asset market and who consume at the rate of nonmarketable income derived from human capital. Because these individuals remain nonparticipants for a range of stochastic processes governing the NM income, consumption betas are not generally unique in value and the consumption-based CAPM (CCAPM) does not obtain. However, the intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) of Merton remains valid.     

An empirical analysis of intertemporal asset pricing models with transaction costs and habit persistence

In intertemporal asset pricing models, transaction costs are usually neglected. In this paper we explicitly incorporate transaction costs in these models and analyze to what extent this extension is helpful in explaining the cross-section of expected returns. An empirical analysis using CRSP data on size-based portfolios examines the role of the transaction costs and shows that incorporating such costs in the consumption-based model with power utility does not yield very satisfactory results. However, the introduction of habit persistence substantially improves the model. We find rather strong evidence of habit persistence in monthly consumption data. The plots of the models' pricing errors indicate that an intertemporal asset pricing model with transaction costs and habit persistence explains the cross-sectional variation in the portfolio returns quite accurately.